Marcus Smart free agency Take 2. "He works hard for the money" Agrees to 4 year 52$ million deal page 32

[celticfan42487]

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Hmm... interesante. In Zarren I trust.

Weird. This blows up a lot of my assumptions. Really didn't think they would want to go for the trading-a-solid-vet-when-we're-supposed-to-be-contending look. Either they're higher on Semi and/or Yabs than I am, or there's some other wrong assumption I've made that I can't see yet.

Yeah I mean the biggest saver would be to not start the repeater tax clock.

But a declining contract will make Smart tradable in the future.

12 million is too much, if you can decline that to 10 though you can give up a first rounder to get him off the books if need be. I think his value is about whatever the MLE is in a given year assuming he can stop breaking his hand in violent outbursts.

But also, once the repeater tax comes into effect even on a contract that is 12 million a year, paying him $2 million in lux tax today is better than $8 million in luxury tax tomorrow.

[m haynes]

Ex I on the (standing at the half court line)court with Bird Magic and Russell my offensive rating would be through the roof!!!

Only if you shot a lot less frequently than Smart does.

I'm not a idiot. That's why I'm standing at half court and did u see my teammates!!!!

[m haynes]

There are 10 backup guard minutes for Smart and Rozier to share.

Paying Smart $50million will be a disaster.


What a waste of money, when minimum contract players are much better on offense than he is.

Exactly. This is one of the issues that's bugs me. Minutes per dollar.

Also down the road, with JB and JT you give MS 12+ they are looking at 25+.

[m haynes]

I like it. Didn't think Marcus was going to sign a long term deal. It's good to retain the asset. He's not going to make or break your season but he will help you win. 30 mpg for 12 mil is good value. The salary is great for a trade for Davis (hopefully). Great insurance for next offseason when Kyrie and Rozier FAs. Still a small chance he gets his game together on the offense end and the contract is a huge bargin.

Smart won’t sniff anywhere near 30 minutes with Hayward back

Depends on if you consider 25 mpg sniffing 30, i expect him in that 24-26 range with Rozier.

So who loses the 25mpg given to MS ?

Not only Hayward's back so is KI and Theis !!!!!

[m haynes]

For those saying Smart won't get minutes to justify the contract, between the rest that guys will get this year, injuries and Smart's ability to play the 3...it's not a real issue. This dude is a game changer and we should all be happy to have him back.

Jayson Tatum, Gorden Hayward, Semi Olejaye and Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris all play the 3 better then Smart. We have 0 minutes available at the 3 for him.

that's cute. Also i bet Morris gets moved before the season. Smart absolutely will get some minutes at the 3 when they go small.

They go small the 5 on the court will be, JT, Brown, Irving, Hayward and Theis. No I'm not saying MS and Rozy won't see time with small ball however not as much as u think.

[brackdan70]

I'm not trolling through this thread to see if it's already been answered, but could someone smarter than me tell me if I'm on the right track here:

We are roughly $8.5 under the cap right now. If we were to sign Smart to a deal that pays just a shade over $11m for this year, we could then dump Yabusele for pure cap space ($2.667m) and stay under the tax line correct?

We can then hot-swap out Bird/Nader (ideally dumping Nader to another team to avoid his $450k guarantee). And we're still under the tax line right?

After all that we'd still have a roster spot available. Could we then sign a guy to the vet min and have him not count against the cap so we can stay under the line?

If so are there any restrictions to who that player needs to be in order for the vet min not to count against the cap? (minimum years in the league etc.). Or do they just need to be willing to accept the vet min?

I am not likely Smarter but you are mostly right there. Sign Smart to a deal that starts at 11 dump Yabs. Waive and stretch Nader, then sign Bird to a minimum. That’s 14 players just barely under the lux tax. I’d we sign another minimum guy to fill out the roster then that min counts though, so that would put us over the tax again. If it goes down like that I would guess we just keep the roster at 14 and use our 2 way guys as needed

[celticfan42487]

Smart won’t sniff anywhere near 30 minutes with Hayward back

Depends on if you consider 25 mpg sniffing 30, i expect him in that 24-26 range with Rozier.

So who loses the 25mpg given to MS ?

Not only Hayward's back so is KI and Theis !!!!!

Rozier, Morris, and Semi will be the ones to lose the most minutes.

They'll get some makeup while Stevens gives DNP-CD rest for Irving and Horford. Potentially Hayward/Baynes as well.

Irving (30) /Rozier (18)
Brown (32) /Smart (13) / Rozier (3)
Hayward (30)/Smart (12)/ Tatum (6)
Tatum (24)/Morris (15) / Theis (10)
Horford (30) /Baynes (15) / Theis (3)

In the playoffs minutes for our starting 5 will increase. Morris/Baynes/Theis minutes will be reduced dramatically. Semi might take some of theirs as well based on matchups.

Our 7 man rotation for most minutes will be our starting 5 with Rozier and Smart getting the most minutes off the bench. Who gets more depends if we need to play big (like against Philly) then there won't be backup minutes for Smart because Tatum will be taking all of them while he loses his minutes in PF.

If we encounter a matchup problem like we did with LeBron last year (which we will with Kawhi) we may actually see Irving lose critical minutes and we'll hope Hayward and Tatum can keep the offensive output elite while giving us a switch defense matchup proof of Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford. That should let us slow down any one man team.

Unfortunately unlike CLE, TOR has a great cast full of capable players. So it probably won't come into play against them. Maybe against the Greek Freak if their new coach gets them to play an actual NBA system. But it is an option and it's good to have given that over the past number of years Irving was ranked often just above IT in terms of being a defensive weakpoint. (I forgot what stat was used but I'm sure y'all will recall it from the trade threads. Probably defensive rating).

[ConstableGeneva]

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[celticfan42487]

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Happy to see it come to a close.

I always rated Smart less than others as I think his on court impact is about a wash and therefore should get about the MLE deal. But my only concerns were losing other players at the cost of Smart.

And I trust Ainge 100% to know his luxury tax budget that only the owners can tell him over our next 5 years of championship run, as well as his projections on the market next year for Irving (hopefully this doesn't mean he's concerned he's a flight risk) and Rozier. As well as how tradeable any contract he gives Smart today is tomorrow.

Let's get this done and have a hell of a race against the Raptors for the #1 seed. (I actually think home court will mean a lot for these teams in the playoffs too which is awesome. Makes the regular season matter again).

[UNCBlue012]

Let's just get this deal done and keep Marcus in Boston. I love what we have and can't wait for the season!

[SmartWentCrazy]

I think we were going to trade Morris before the season started regardless of the Smart deal— the dude just doesnt stand to get the minutes hes going to demand next season and I dont see him being a happy camper about it with his upcoming FA next season. Plus, Semi needs to get additional minutes as well to see if he can keep developing.

I see the declining deal as a way to take advantage of the situation with Morris while also increasing the future expected value of Smart as an asset. A 4/46 deal would start around 13M, leaving us ~4.5 north of the tax. Trading Morris leaves us under by less than a mil or so.

[jfs1000d]

Looks like some people just got a lesson in NBA economics.

Yeah. I also think people get a lesson in making deals. People think every negotiation has to be lopsided and max leverage used.

That’s not how you negotiate. You have to make sure that both parties are satisfied with the deal. Marcus in the QO, or giving him a below market take it or leave it deal is a disaster. Creates animosity and problems.

For the young ins here. Never, EVER, box someone in and force them to take a deal they don’t want. It will always come back and bite you in the ass 10 fold.

Here’s a book - Getting to the Yes.

Read it people.



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[brackdan70]

I think we were going to trade Morris before the season started regardless of the Smart deal— the dude just doesnt stand to get the minutes hes going to demand next season and I dont see him being a happy camper about it with his upcoming FA next season. Plus, Semi needs to get additional minutes as well to see if he can keep developing.

I see the declining deal as a way to take advantage of the situation with Morris while also increasing the future expected value of Smart as an asset. A 4/46 deal would start around 13M, leaving us ~4.5 north of the tax. Trading Morris leaves us under by less than a mil or so.

Yeah I like the idea. Which teams remain that can absorb Morris 5.3 million with out sending anything back...and of those teams which ones would / could utilize Morris’s skills for a playoff run or whatnot. Are there trade exceptions out there big enough as well?

[Parliament10]

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[tombattor]

I don't really buy the "keep the player happy" argument by bidding against yourselves, doesn't seem like an Ainge move at all.

Bear in mind that we're not just bidding against the market this year. There's projected to be a ton more cap space next year, so there's a real argument for Smart to take the QO and "bet on himself", then try to cash in in a much better market.

To move him off the QO, we have to offer him enough to get him to favor the security over the upside. For example: him taking the QO this year, hitting unrestricted free agency, then getting a 3-year deal at the MLE, comes out to a little over 4/35. It would not be unreasonable of Marcus to think of the MLE as just about his absolute floor - he certainly would have gotten it this offseason, if we hadn't had matching rights.

So, something like 4/40 would not have done it. For a difference of less than 5mil between our offer, and what he probably considers to be his floor, he might as well bet on himself. For 15mil more, on the other hand, the security of the sure thing becomes more tempting.

Hopefully the final number will come down somewhere in the middle. But, the point is, there's rhyme and reason to the numbers being discussed.

Nicely thought out post.

[tombattor]

There are 10 backup guard minutes for Smart and Rozier to share.

Paying Smart $50million will be a disaster.


What a waste of money, when minimum contract players are much better on offense than he is.

Not really. We had a player everyone loved, who was a worse offensive player than Smart, despite being a better spot up shooter. Avery Bradley. There are things like ball handling, setting up teammates, etc. that's part of offense. Smart is good at all that. Bradley couldn't do it.

[tombattor]

For those saying Smart won't get minutes to justify the contract, between the rest that guys will get this year, injuries and Smart's ability to play the 3...it's not a real issue. This dude is a game changer and we should all be happy to have him back.

Jayson Tatum, Gorden Hayward, Semi Olejaye and Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris all play the 3 better then Smart. We have 0 minutes available at the 3 for him.

Please... Semi Olejaye? Sure, he's playing well in the summer league, but come on now.

[brackdan70]

Looks like some people just got a lesson in NBA economics.

Yeah. I also think people get a lesson in making deals. People think every negotiation has to be lopsided and max leverage used.

That’s not how you negotiate. You have to make sure that both parties are satisfied with the deal. Marcus in the QO, or giving him a below market take it or leave it deal is a disaster. Creates animosity and problems.

For the young ins here. Never, EVER, box someone in and force them to take a deal they don’t want. It will always come back and bite you in the ass 10 fold.

Here’s a book - Getting to the Yes.

Read it people.



Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Great contribution and great book. Exactly , in real life things get squishy and any deal has to leave all parties generally satisfied or it is not going to be effective.

[tombattor]

Kyrie should be the top priority now. Go all in and try to re-sign him. He is a star, and the celtics best player. They can't afford to lose him. Look at game 7 in the ECF, had he played celtics would have won the game. Getting Anthony Davis going to be tough because they are going to ask for Jayson Tatum. Karl Anthony maybe the more realistic option.

Celtics re-signing Marus Smart shouldn't prevent/stop them from re-signing Marcus Smart, or trading for another star player. Get the Kyrie deal done as soon as he reaches free agency.

That's next year. Come back then.

[3D Chess]

Marcus byke

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