Hayward Undecided

[TheMartian]

For the love of god will Hayward please do us all the favor of making his decision quickly.

I can't do the 5 day dog and pony show Durant did. Spent way too much time here refreshing the pages than I care to admit.

Utah will do their best to guilt him into staying, but this is a done deal just like Durant to GS. Hayward will entertain meetings and enjoy the process, but he will be a Celtic

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

How certain are you of this, as someone who is known to have insider connections on this board?

[The Corey's]

I have it on good record that Hayward will be a Celtic. Everyone rejoice

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

Does "good record" mean the same as a reliable source-?

Put it this way. Same source last year said Boston was in play for Durant/Horford. This time around he is basically saying, done deal. In play VS done deal.

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

If it doesn't happen it's time to burn the source

[ddb]

For the love of god will Hayward please do us all the favor of making his decision quickly.

I can't do the 5 day dog and pony show Durant did. Spent way too much time here refreshing the pages than I care to admit.

Utah will do their best to guilt him into staying, but this is a done deal just like Durant to GS. Hayward will entertain meetings and enjoy the process, but he will be a Celtic

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

How certain are you of this, as someone who is known to have insider connections on this board?

I would bet on it. High probability

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

[reload141]

Utah will do their best to guilt him into staying, but this is a done deal just like Durant to GS. Hayward will entertain meetings and enjoy the process, but he will be a Celtic

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

How certain are you of this, as someone who is known to have insider connections on this board?

I would bet on it. High probability

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

+1
Heard similar

[klemen4]

Ok, if Hayward is on the way...what we do with roster then...

I think Danny will offer:
Ab, crowder, smart or rozier, 2 non brklyn picks for extended Paul George imo.

It/fultz
Brown/smart or rozier
Hayward/ veteran minimum
George/ veteran minimum
Horford/Zizic

This is probably best case scenario imo.

George salary is 19.3 mill

Ab+crowder+rozier is 17.6 mill
Ab+crowder+smart is 20.1 mill

[Andrew McCeltic]

Posted this in Hayward/Griffin thread, repeating here -

Sign and trade possibilities overhyped - if you factor in BYC rules, the only way we can get Hayward through a sign and trade is if Utah drops down under the cap (George Hill would have to bail, and they might even have to renounce some of their other free agents) - then we have to get to about 24 million to match salary, but our free agents are BYC-capped, too, which means:

Amir: 14.4 million
Jerebko: 6.25 million
Olynyk: 4.1-ish million
Zeller: 8 million
Demetrius Jackson: 1.38 million
Jordan Mickey: 1.47 million
Yabu: 2.25 million
(Rozier: 1.98 million)
(Jae Crowder: 6.79 million)

Olynyk won't take 4.1 million to go to Utah, so we're talking about Amir, Jerebko, Jackson, Mickey, and either Yabu or Rozier to match salary-

That theoretically lets us keep Kelly as a rotation big, and we can keep Zeller's contract to help match salary in trades.

But it's going to be a slim margin of error to be able to do a sign and trade, and we might be better off just signing Hayward outright.

Ah, ****.

I've been one of the people hyping sign and trade scenarios, too. It's possible there are wrinkles I'm not understanding - there isn't a ton of info about the new CBA as far as I can tell, and I'm only finally up to speed on like, last decade's rules.

But, if Hill leaves because he thinks Hayward's leaving, and Utah lets Hill leave (maybe to sign Jeff Teague for less money), the Jazz would nearly be under the cap, and they might renounce some of their end of bench guys if we can send them a bunch of rotation players on cheap or short-term deals: Amir, Jerebko, Jackson, Mickey, Young or Rozier.

We could follow up with Zeller/Yabu for Vucevic, keep Olynyk and extend Smart, then you're looking at this:

IT/Fultz
Bradley/Smart
Hayward/Jaylen/Nader
Horford/Crowder/Olynyk
Vucevic/Zizic

Vuc becomes a big wild card, but with his money, Olynyk's re-up, and a Smart extension, we'd still have the salary chips to move on bigger stars, and if we do max IT and near-max Avery, no one has a contract that isn't movable. That would be, IMO, a realistic, near-ideal summer.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ok, if Hayward is on the way...what we do with roster then...

I think Danny will offer:
Ab, crowder, smart or rozier, 2 non brklyn picks for extended Paul George imo.

It/fultz
Brown/smart or rozier
Hayward/ veteran minimum
George/ veteran minimum
Horford/Zizic

This is probably best case scenario imo.

George salary is 19.3 mill

Ab+crowder+rozier is 17.6 mill
Ab+crowder+smart is 20.1 mill

Who's in charge now in Indiana? I know Bird always liked Avery, and Tyler Zeller.

[Captain_Caveman]

Posted this in Hayward/Griffin thread, repeating here -

Sign and trade possibilities overhyped - if you factor in BYC rules, the only way we can get Hayward through a sign and trade is if Utah drops down under the cap (George Hill would have to bail, and they might even have to renounce some of their other free agents) - then we have to get to about 24 million to match salary, but our free agents are BYC-capped, too, which means:

Amir: 14.4 million
Jerebko: 6.25 million
Olynyk: 4.1-ish million
Zeller: 8 million
Demetrius Jackson: 1.38 million
Jordan Mickey: 1.47 million
Yabu: 2.25 million
(Rozier: 1.98 million)
(Jae Crowder: 6.79 million)

Olynyk won't take 4.1 million to go to Utah, so we're talking about Amir, Jerebko, Jackson, Mickey, and either Yabu or Rozier to match salary-

That theoretically lets us keep Kelly as a rotation big, and we can keep Zeller's contract to help match salary in trades.

But it's going to be a slim margin of error to be able to do a sign and trade, and we might be better off just signing Hayward outright.

Ah, ****.

I've been one of the people hyping sign and trade scenarios, too. It's possible there are wrinkles I'm not understanding - there isn't a ton of info about the new CBA as far as I can tell, and I'm only finally up to speed on like, last decade's rules.

But, if Hill leaves because he thinks Hayward's leaving, and Utah lets Hill leave (maybe to sign Jeff Teague for less money), the Jazz would nearly be under the cap, and they might renounce some of their end of bench guys if we can send them a bunch of rotation players on cheap or short-term deals: Amir, Jerebko, Jackson, Mickey, Young or Rozier.

We could follow up with Zeller/Yabu for Vucevic, keep Olynyk and extend Smart, then you're looking at this:

IT/Fultz
Bradley/Smart
Hayward/Jaylen/Nader
Horford/Crowder/Olynyk
Vucevic/Zizic

Vuc becomes a big wild card, but with his money, Olynyk's re-up, and a Smart extension, we'd still have the salary chips to move on bigger stars, and if we do max IT and near-max Avery, no one has a contract that isn't movable. That would be, IMO, a realistic, near-ideal summer.

IMO, it might shift the odd man out from Bradley to Crowder. With multiple major adds plus IT, there's no room for a Bradley extension.

With just dumping Crowder and ballast for Hayward, maybe not.

IT/Fultz
Bradley/Smart/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Yabusele
Horford/Zizic

[165bows]

Posted this in Hayward/Griffin thread, repeating here -

Sign and trade possibilities overhyped - if you factor in BYC rules, the only way we can get Hayward through a sign and trade is if Utah drops down under the cap (George Hill would have to bail, and they might even have to renounce some of their other free agents) - then we have to get to about 24 million to match salary, but our free agents are BYC-capped, too, which means:

Amir: 14.4 million
Jerebko: 6.25 million
Olynyk: 4.1-ish million
Zeller: 8 million
Demetrius Jackson: 1.38 million
Jordan Mickey: 1.47 million
Yabu: 2.25 million
(Rozier: 1.98 million)
(Jae Crowder: 6.79 million)

Olynyk won't take 4.1 million to go to Utah, so we're talking about Amir, Jerebko, Jackson, Mickey, and either Yabu or Rozier to match salary-

That theoretically lets us keep Kelly as a rotation big, and we can keep Zeller's contract to help match salary in trades.

But it's going to be a slim margin of error to be able to do a sign and trade, and we might be better off just signing Hayward outright.

Ah, ****.

I was going to say this was all incorrect but it looks like this might apply to Olynyk. At least his salary for trade purposes, not his actual salary.

From the NBA cap Wikipedia:

Certain players in the first few months of a new contract are subject to base year compensation (BYC). The intent of BYC is to prevent teams from re-signing players to salaries specifically targeted to match other salaries in a trade (in other words, salary should be based on basketball value, not trade value). A BYC player's trade value as outgoing salary is 50% of his new salary, or his previous salary, whichever is greater. BYC applies only to players who re-sign with their previous team and receive a raise greater than 20%. It also applies only when (and as long as) the team is over the salary cap. Under the 2011 CBA, players subject to BYC cannot be traded before January 15 except in a sign-and-trade, and BYC is only applied to outgoing salary in sign-and-trade deals.[6]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Base_year_compensation

So Utah wouldn't have to drop under the cap, and no one is getting a raise out of that group outside of Olynyk. Or they could still take advantage of KO's full salary if he was traded to a cap team.

Needs some tweaks but good find by Andy as it looks like it might affect aspects of a deal.

[Asian Celtic]

I have it on good record that Hayward will be a Celtic. Everyone rejoice

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

Does "good record" mean the same as a reliable source-?

Put it this way. Same source last year said Boston was in play for Durant/Horford. This time around he is basically saying, done deal. In play VS done deal.

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

You are the BIGGEST sunshine in these Hayward FA pitch. Thanks!

[165bows]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

[klemen4]

By my calculation...trading rozier for future first we would have exactly 30.3 mill cap space.

Returning to Trade idea going after PG...if indy is not interested in ab+crowder we imo can get them pick. Im sure ab and yae can get us two low loterry pick, we can add 2 more... 4 pick for PG is more than enough imo.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

I used this - http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2017/ - but they don't count a hold/contract for Fultz, which should be 6 million-ish.

As long as we're a dollar under the salary cap, BYC doesn't apply for anyone we sign and trade? That would give us a little more flexibility. We'd need to renounce about 18 million in rights/holds.

So jettisoning Amir/Young would get us under the cap. But then you still have to get to 24 million in outgoing salary to do a sign and trade for Hayward. I don't see Olynyk getting more than 10-12 million, so if you include Mickey/Jackson in the sign and trade, and Jerebko at 1 year guaranteed of 9, 10-ish million, you're there. But again, all you have left as a Bogans contract is Zeller's 8 million.

[FlatearthZorro]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

I used this - http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2017/ - but they don't count a hold/contract for Fultz, which should be 6 million-ish.

As long as we're a dollar under the salary cap, BYC doesn't apply for anyone we sign and trade? That would give us a little more flexibility. We'd need to renounce about 18 million in rights/holds.

So jettisoning Amir/Young would get us under the cap. But then you still have to get to 24 million in outgoing salary to do a sign and trade for Hayward. I don't see Olynyk getting more than 10-12 million, so if you include Mickey/Jackson in the sign and trade, and Jerebko at 1 year guaranteed of 9, 10-ish million, you're there. But again, all you have left as a Bogans contract is Zeller's 8 million.

The Jazz are not doing a sign and trade with us to trade their best player. It's just not happening.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

I used this - http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2017/ - but they don't count a hold/contract for Fultz, which should be 6 million-ish.

As long as we're a dollar under the salary cap, BYC doesn't apply for anyone we sign and trade? That would give us a little more flexibility. We'd need to renounce about 18 million in rights/holds.

So jettisoning Amir/Young would get us under the cap. But then you still have to get to 24 million in outgoing salary to do a sign and trade for Hayward. I don't see Olynyk getting more than 10-12 million, so if you include Mickey/Jackson in the sign and trade, and Jerebko at 1 year guaranteed of 9, 10-ish million, you're there. But again, all you have left as a Bogans contract is Zeller's 8 million.

The Jazz are not doing a sign and trade with us to trade their best player. It's just not happening.

Can you explain why not?

[Fencer reregistered]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

1. It's been calculated that if the Cs:

-- Renounce all FAs except Olynyk
-- Dump Bradley's and Crowder's salaries (e.g. for future picks)

they'll have enough cap room to sign a max FA. So I'm sure that in less demanding scenarios they can keep KO's hold as well.

2. We might need a clarification on the BYC rule. If a team would go over the cap in the S&T, do the restrictive rules apply, or is it all good so long as they were under the cap right before the deal?

[Andrew McCeltic]

IMO, it might shift the odd man out from Bradley to Crowder. With multiple major adds plus IT, there's no room for a Bradley extension.

With just dumping Crowder and ballast for Hayward, maybe not.

IT/Fultz
Bradley/Smart/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Yabusele
Horford/Zizic

The post-Hayward gameplan immediately becomes more interesting.

Jae has value as a small-ball power forward, he's on a great contract - I think the Avery/Marcus decision is tougher. Bradley might still have upside, he's turned into a hell of a player, and if he's in your second tier offensively with Horford, behind IT/Hayward, with great defense, he's very valuable. But Smart's likely to get an extension very favorable to us, given his development pace, he's at or above Avery's level defensively, and he's still got some offensive upside, to the point that he could be over performing his next contract within a few years - like Bradley now, like Rondo before that.

Bradley for a mid-lotto pick to take Tatum or Monk would make sense financially.

Smart for Randle or Okafor seems possible.

This team just has such an identity, defensively, with Bradley/Smart/Crowder, and they're all unselfish players. I'd be reluctant to trade any of them.

The other possibility, if we get Hayward, is to "upgrade" IT - I think we could get John Wall for IT+, if Washington wants different chemistry. And I'd trade him for Porzingis.

Smart/Fultz/Rozier
Bradley/Jaylen
Hayward/Crowder
Horford/Yabusele
Porzingis/Zizic

The problem is that you still have only one first-tier scorer, Hayward - you have three second-tier scorers (Bradley, Horford, Porzingis), and several guys who could jump a tier or more over the next couple of years - Smart, Fultz, Rozier, Jaylen, Porzingis.

[165bows]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

1. It's been calculated that if the Cs:

-- Renounce all FAs except Olynyk
-- Dump Bradley's and Crowder's salaries (e.g. for future picks)

they'll have enough cap room to sign a max FA. So I'm sure that in less demanding scenarios they can keep KO's hold as well.

2. We might need a clarification on the BYC rule. If a team would go over the cap in the S&T, do the restrictive rules apply, or is it all good so long as they were under the cap right before the deal?

Yeah, the scenario is the following:

1. To outright sign a max FA, they need to lose assets (KO, one other piece) or find how to move it for little to no salary in return.

2. Sign and trade for a max, using KO, and/or other parts, using those lost assets to gain flexibility (access to greater MLE, possible IT extension, etc).

3. Sign and trade for 2 max FAs, very difficult and complicated but potentially achievable. Move slightly more assets than 1 or 2 above, but gain substantially more talent.

[ConstableGeneva]

Actually, the Celtics could possibly drop under the cap and keep KO's cap hold, so then it wouldn't apply to Olynyk either in that case. I'd have to check who they'd have to renounce first, probably Amir.

1. It's been calculated that if the Cs:

-- Renounce all FAs except Olynyk
-- Dump Bradley's and Crowder's salaries (e.g. for future picks)

they'll have enough cap room to sign a max FA. So I'm sure that in less demanding scenarios they can keep KO's hold as well.

2. We might need a clarification on the BYC rule. If a team would go over the cap in the S&T, do the restrictive rules apply, or is it all good so long as they were under the cap right before the deal?

1. I use this chart as quick lookup. There are probably a couple more scenarios to get there but options 3-6 seem most likely:



2. S&T scenarios are giving me a headache. It's like the blind leading the blind lol. We do need clarification from CBA experts.

[jfs1000d]

It's a significant advantge. First, NBA teams play 41 home games. So (in the case of a player on a Florida team) 50% of current earned income is apportioned to Florida. Some is apportioned to other states with no state income tax, e.g. Texas. Second, Hayward almost certainly has income from a portfolio of investments made from the money he earned in prior years (unless his agent is a complete boob). In Massachusetts, cap gains from those investments are taxed at !2%, which is tacked on to the federal rate. (Short-term cap gains are taxed by the feds as ordinary income. Long-term gains are taxed at 20% for taxpayers in the highest brackets.) Third, any dividends from stock or other investments are not taxed in Florida. Neither are royalties or any other form of income characterized as "ordinary" by the IRS. Fourth, depending on where he lives, local property taxes are much lower in Florida. Municipal services are cheaper (e.g. no snow removal, lower labor costs) and per pupil expenditures in the schools are lower.

Of course there are tradeoffs. If he comes to Boston and lives in Weston, Wellesley or one of the other toney Western suburbs, he can send his kids to the public schools, which are outstanding. If he lives in the Miami area, he probably has to put them in private schools if he wants the best education for them. Also, states with no income tax tend to have regressive state sales taxes. He will pay no sales tax in Massachusetts on food purchased in a grocery store (with some exceptions) although he will pay 6.25% on restaurant meals. In Florida the tax is 6% on everything.

Walking it back a bit to state income tax, still overstated as I understand it. First chart is state tax rates by team. Second chart is adjusted for the schedule of where each team plays its games. On top of that, there are tax credits on the "out-of-state" state taxes you pay in your road games in "tax states" that are not available to players in "no tax states". This brings the state income tax difference down to 1% or so between teams like Miami and Boston. May be a more pronounced advantage over teams like the Knicks or Kings, but not so much us.

As to the higher cost of living and capital gains and the rest, yes, a similar advantage exists, but also easy to overstate. As you said, there are tradeoffs, but there are also loopholes and workarounds and tax credits similar to what I mentioned above.

All told, unless he is the most successful investor alive, we are talking a difference of a few million dollars, to a guy who will probably make $300m+ in his career from salary and endorsements.

Taking a look at that chart above, state tax rate has nothing to do with attracting or losing free agents. Historically, some of the most attractive destinations are found with the highest rates.

It might or might not have mattered for an individual player here or there, but over all, it hasn't mattered at all. Look at the Lakers and Warriors tax rate. Orlando is at 0%, and lost Shaq to high tax California. Durant also went to California. LeBron went to a lower tax state, and then back to a higher one. Last year Horford chose Massachusetts over Texas.

State tax has no impact.

Also, for super wealthy individuals, state tax has no bearing where they live. They can afford the tax, and they have accountants. These guys are too wealthy to be obsessed with taxes. No impact, at all, on super wealthy.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app