keevsnick1 wrote:Hal14 wrote:keevsnick1 wrote:
Ya that's one read. You can also very easily read all of this a completely different way. Maybe they think trading Smart for a 7'2 shooting center option gives you the perfect PnR partner for two wing sized guys and gives your offense an actual identity. That combining Smart and Grant into one salary making 28.5 million in 24-25 actually makes it easier to carry Jaylen's extension that year. That stocking up on draft picks makes it easier to dump salary in future years if they want to keep Jaylen/Tatum/KP together while also giving them multiple shots at cheap cost controlled young guys to fill out the roster. And that maybe the Jaylen negotiations haven't wrapped up yet not because they are trading him but because they want to try an find a salary structure that works for both him and the team going forward and gives them a better chance of staying together.
The idea that Jaylen and JB are not a recipe for winning a title is just crazy to me, because they were like 5 minutes in game 4 of the 2022 NBA finals away from going up 3-1 and winning a title. They were some absolutely insanely bad shooting luck away from back-to-back finals trips this year. Those two together absolutely can win a title. My guess is the Celtics are going to do everything they can the next two years to try and win with those two, and if it doesn't work Jaylen gets traded in summer 25' the year before Celtics enter the repeater Tax and both Tatum and Browns extensions would be in effect.
But Tatum and Brown didn't win the title. All of this we were 5 minutes away from going up 3-1 stuff is all woulda coulda shoulda.
We didn't finish off game 4. And even if we did, there's no guarantee we would have won the series. We were facing a team with the greatest shooter of all time, a team with WAY more NBA finals experience than us - they were a group of players (and HC) that had already won 3 titles together.
We lost 3 games in a row to lose the series to GS. Just like we lost 3 games in a row this season to Miami. Those are facts.
No team in the last 22 years has won a title with 2 high usage (30% or higher), low assist (under 25%) guys on it. None, zilch, nada.
This season, JB was 66th in the league in BPM. He was 97th in Box Score RAPTOR, 76th in Overall RAPTOR, 181st in on/off RAPTOR.
In this year's playoffs, JB was 33rd in on/off RAPTOR, behind Tatum, Brogdon, Horford, Rob and Smart.
His best season ever, in 21-22 he was still only 29th in the league in Overall RAPTOR.
JB is probably not going to be the #2 best player on a championship team. He's definitely not worth a supermax $60 mil a year contract.
So? Neither did Giannis/Middleton until they did. Or Jokic/Murray until they did. Winning a title is hard, 1 team does it per year, the Celtics have done it once in the last 37 years.
I don't buy the "two high USG low passing guys can't win" That's as much to do with just the sheer rarity of having two over 30% USG guys then it is that combination not working. A lot of years there won't even be a single team with two players over 30% USG. I've posted this before, but the C's with Tatum+Brown on the court have been good, very good, just raw net rating wise. Those two together work.
Brown had a bad advanced stats year last year, he was pretty good the year before that tho by those same stats. I don't really care about them tho tbh, he's good, he adds value, he works with Tatum. If Tatum played in the 22' finals the way he did in the BRK series first round Brown would have been the 2nd best player on a title team, so i'm not sure how the argument can possibly be he can't.
In the end it doesn't really matter what we think. By all accounts they are re-signing Brown, its happening. Ultimately we will see in time if its the right move.
Brown has never been a top 25 player in the league according to any advanced stat that I have seen. Most seasons he hasn't even been a top 50 player according to most advanced stats.
Giannis was the best player in the world when MIL won the title. Jokic was the best player in the world when denver won the title. Tatum is *maybe* top 4..which means for us to have any shot at a title, we need to improve our #2 guy, we need to upgrade from JB.
Not to mention Giannis had an assist % of 34 and Jokic had an assist % of 46. Of the current Celtics players, the highest % on the team is 21 - yikes..
Lakers had 2 pretty high usage guys in 2020. LeBron at 31% and AD at 29%. But LeBron that season posted an insane 49% assist rate, the 2 of them were both top 5 players in the league during those playoffs and AD was an elite defender. Compare that to Tatum and Brown - 1 of them is nowhere close to being a top 5 player, neither is an elite defender and the highest assist % of either of them was 21%.
Curry and KD were both 30% or higher usage in 2018. But again, we're talking about 2 of the top 5 players in the league here. And Curry had a 30% assist rate, 25% assist rate for KD...compare that to Tatum at 21%, Brown at 16%, with Brown nowhere near being a top 5 player in the league.
How about LeBron and Wade? Both with somewhat similar usage % to Tatum and brown. But Lebron was the best player on the planet. Lebron was a better player, better defender than Tatum. Wade was a better player, better defender than JB. In 2011 and 2012, Lebron had assist % of 33 and 36, while Wade's was 26 and 27. Compare that to Tatum and Brown at 21 and 16. Not even remotely close.
Sure, Tatum and Brown could maybe win a ring together. But the odds are stacked against them. The data tells us that is probably won't happen. The data also tells us that JB is not worth a $60 mil a year contract. Lots of the advanced stats tell us that JB is not even a top 5 player on the Celtics right now..
