"WCIHAoTDP?" - 2016 Draft Thread P.2

[No-Man]

Phenomenal article on this draft from a statistical perspective. Cliff Notes:

1. He realllllyyy likes Wade Baldwin.
2. Simmons is being overly punished for his lack of a jumper given how dominant he was in other ways
3. Ingram is gonna be good, but ceiling may be a bit overhyped
4. Likes Dunn, some concerns about Hield and Murray given their defensive / passing issues
5. Jaylen Brown = Tony Wroten, both good and bad
6. Tons of interesting guys in the 2nd round of this draft = great for the Celtics
7. Thomas Walkup, assuming he has close to NBA athleticism, could be a superb role player
8. Cat Barber could end up being a nice role player
9. Don't ask Denzel Valentine to be a playmaker / ballhandler for your team
10. Compares this to 2013 draft, where there was actually some good depth but little clarity at the top. Think there's more clarity this year (at least #1 / #2) but can see the comparison to some degree.
11. GPII - could be a superstar if he can become a mediocre shooter
12. Likes Brice Johnson and Chinanu Onuaku among the bigs, though this article was mostly guard/wing discussion

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-vii/

The guy is a poster in the 76ers board, really interesting statistically although his writing is somewhat murky and heavy.

The comp to 2013 is okay but this draft is more like 2011, or a mix of both I'd say.

I think he really overrates GP, defensively sure, but is not only his shooting, the guy is not precisely a shot creator, he is a stud athletically, but Markel Brown was as well, he didnt really play full-time floor general for the Beavers, I think he gets too deep with the stats in his case.

[vct33]

I don't know why anybody would be opposed to drafting Thon Maker. We have 5 picks in the top 35. I'm all for using on of them on Maker and sending him to the D-League to see what happens.

Sure, but there is a huge difference between picking him with a top 3 pick, consolidating picks to get him in the 12-13 region, or grabbing him 35'th overall and sending him to Europe for a couple of years. Thoughts on the guy are all over the board at this point.

My leaning is Boston's own pick or early second at this time, but really combine, workouts and especially head to head competition is what is going to define where he goes. A few highlight films of his playing high school kids is close to meaningless from a pick standpoint, other than helping to determine if you have him in for a workout. Where he gets picked has a long way to go yet.

Certainly. I didn't even think he was in the conversation with the NJ pick.

[Dave_From_NB]

I don't know why anybody would be opposed to drafting Thon Maker. We have 5 picks in the top 35. I'm all for using on of them on Maker and sending him to the D-League to see what happens.

Sure, but there is a huge difference between picking him with a top 3 pick, consolidating picks to get him in the 12-13 region, or grabbing him 35'th overall and sending him to Europe for a couple of years. Thoughts on the guy are all over the board at this point.

My leaning is Boston's own pick or early second at this time, but really combine, workouts and especially head to head competition is what is going to define where he goes. A few highlight films of his playing high school kids is close to meaningless from a pick standpoint, other than helping to determine if you have him in for a workout. Where he gets picked has a long way to go yet.

Certainly. I didn't even think he was in the conversation with the NJ pick.

Makers biggest booster has him on par with Bender, and going between 3 and 6.

[Crossy2008]

I don't know why anybody would be opposed to drafting Thon Maker. We have 5 picks in the top 35. I'm all for using on of them on Maker and sending him to the D-League to see what happens.

Sure, but there is a huge difference between picking him with a top 3 pick, consolidating picks to get him in the 12-13 region, or grabbing him 35'th overall and sending him to Europe for a couple of years. Thoughts on the guy are all over the board at this point.

My leaning is Boston's own pick or early second at this time, but really combine, workouts and especially head to head competition is what is going to define where he goes. A few highlight films of his playing high school kids is close to meaningless from a pick standpoint, other than helping to determine if you have him in for a workout. Where he gets picked has a long way to go yet.

Certainly. I didn't even think he was in the conversation with the NJ pick.

I think the Celtics are a little past the phase of take a chance on a potential long shot talent at this point in their rebuilding process. I mean maybe with the Boston first or one of the seconds, but even at those draft spots there are going to be some more seasoned players like Baldwin, Prince, Jackson, Jones, Ulis, that may actually be able to contribute in year one. From what I have seen from Maker, he looks like a two or three year project, but the workouts may actually show progress that most are unaware of. There really aren't a lot of bigs in this years draft, so that should help him out a little.

Ideally, and this is not serious, but maybe it should be, I would like the Celtics to draft Ulis and sign Lawson to a two year deal. We roll out the IT/Ulis/Lawson/Bradley/Simmons lineup and have Simmons play the point. Take that conventional basketball.

[Ben-N1ce]

I think odds are far better of Maker getting drafted in the 2nd round then top 6.

[Bluewhale]

I think odds are far better of Maker getting drafted in the 2nd round then top 6.

While Ainge typically avoid the BIG mistake, some GM will make BIG mistake in lottery.

[tlee324]

So is the consensus that Boston will/should take Bender if they have the 3rd pick?

[Homerclease]

So is the consensus that Boston will/should take Bender if they have the 3rd pick?

Bender or Brown for me unless they cut a deal that involves moving one of the many guards they already have, that brings Hield, Murray or Dunn into the equation.

[greenroom31]

So is the consensus that Boston will/should take Bender if they have the 3rd pick?

Not for me. I like Murray at 3. Marquise Chriss looks pretty intriguing too, but he should be available in the late lottery so maybe could trade back for him. His style of play should translate well to the NBA and it's crazy that he's only been playing basketball for like 4 years.

[tlee324]

So is the consensus that Boston will/should take Bender if they have the 3rd pick?

Bender or Brown for me unless they cut a deal that involves moving one of the many guards they already have, that brings Hield, Murray or Dunn into the equation.

I've been trying to get myself to like Bender, but I'm struggling with it. Good mobility for a 7-footer, no doubt.... Maybe I just want to see a reliable STRONG post player and interior defender for once in my life wearing a Celtics uniform, lol.

[Leprechaun18]

I am not sold on Bender. I would not take him with a top 5 pick. He has good measurables and can move with the ball in his hands, but he needs to show some tuffness and more skill.

[darrendaye]

Didn't see it posted previously, but fyi, Ivan Rabb didn't enter draft and is returning to Cal next year.

[BakersDozen]

When is the lottery taking place? Isn't it usually during the ecf/wcf


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[SmartWentCrazy]

When is the lottery taking place? Isn't it usually during the ecf/wcf


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May 17th

[vct33]

I think the Celtics are a little past the phase of take a chance on a potential long shot talent at this point in their rebuilding process. I mean maybe with the Boston first or one of the seconds, but even at those draft spots there are going to be some more seasoned players like Baldwin, Prince, Jackson, Jones, Ulis, that may actually be able to contribute in year one. From what I have seen from Maker, he looks like a two or three year project, but the workouts may actually show progress that most are unaware of. There really aren't a lot of bigs in this years draft, so that should help him out a little.

I would agree if they had only two picks or something but they have more picks than they will have roster spots. If it's a choice between trying to trade or package picks and risk unequal return or draft and stash a guy like Maker, I think it's a no brainer.

[jfs1000d]

I know nothing of bender. Hard for me to evaluate. I love Hield. I think top 3 pick is easy. We can figure that out (we'd probably trade if it isn't too 2).

I want shooters or athletes with all our picks after the first. You have to make shots.


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[darrendaye]

I wonder if having IT on the roster rules out any possibility of drafting Ulis or Felder. I'd love to draft Felder in round 2, but unless he's willing to be stashed for a season or two, I don't see Ainge adding a second 5'9" lightning bug to the roster.

[Crossy2008]

I think the Celtics are a little past the phase of take a chance on a potential long shot talent at this point in their rebuilding process. I mean maybe with the Boston first or one of the seconds, but even at those draft spots there are going to be some more seasoned players like Baldwin, Prince, Jackson, Jones, Ulis, that may actually be able to contribute in year one. From what I have seen from Maker, he looks like a two or three year project, but the workouts may actually show progress that most are unaware of. There really aren't a lot of bigs in this years draft, so that should help him out a little.

I would agree if they had only two picks or something but they have more picks than they will have roster spots. If it's a choice between trying to trade or package picks and risk unequal return or draft and stash a guy like Maker, I think it's a no brainer.

Agreed. I feel like I am right where I was last year with the draft by really hoping for a trade or two to move up. I am more interested in Skal than Maker. There is still a small chance that Ainge could get Simmons, Skal, and Maker in this draft. Fortunately, with Sully potentially leaving that would leave plenty of excess food money for these guys to bulk up. Heck, maybe we keep Sully for another season to mentor our new skinny bigs on how to put on some weight.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Phenomenal article on this draft from a statistical perspective. Cliff Notes:

1. He realllllyyy likes Wade Baldwin.
2. Simmons is being overly punished for his lack of a jumper given how dominant he was in other ways
3. Ingram is gonna be good, but ceiling may be a bit overhyped
4. Likes Dunn, some concerns about Hield and Murray given their defensive / passing issues
5. Jaylen Brown = Tony Wroten, both good and bad
6. Tons of interesting guys in the 2nd round of this draft = great for the Celtics
7. Thomas Walkup, assuming he has close to NBA athleticism, could be a superb role player
8. Cat Barber could end up being a nice role player
9. Don't ask Denzel Valentine to be a playmaker / ballhandler for your team
10. Compares this to 2013 draft, where there was actually some good depth but little clarity at the top. Think there's more clarity this year (at least #1 / #2) but can see the comparison to some degree.
11. GPII - could be a superstar if he can become a mediocre shooter
12. Likes Brice Johnson and Chinanu Onuaku among the bigs, though this article was mostly guard/wing discussion

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-vii/

Thanks, great, detailed writeup, I could only skim it. Some of his approaches are really interesting and worth going back to, going to quote the bit about Simmons because it's potentially so trenchant:

17. How can we not talk about Ben Simmons? He shows up better than Ingram in terms of my makeshift metric “J Burden %”, but that’s only because Simmons didn’t shoot three pointers. Had Simmons taken a healthy number of three pointers, it’s very likely that his numbers would have been in line with Ingram, Valentine and others.

Which is not really to say all that much. Probably because there’s not all that much to say. Simmons has no Red Flags besides a lack of Three-Point Evidence. 39 unassisted makes with 33% on Two-Point Jumpers is pretty decent. 67% on Free Throws, not as much, but many players have overcome much worse. ie. It’s a flag, but on its own, not a significant one.

However, having a profile that doesn’t have significant Red Flags in terms of shooting ability is not the same as having a scoring profile that would be predictive of a player that we’d expect could shoot.

The difference between Simmons and Ingram then is this: Ingram is likely going to have to shoot at near league best efficiency rates on high volume to be hugely valuable on offense. Whereas if Simmons shoots from distance with even moderately positive shooting efficiency, he’ll probably be approaching status as the best player in the league, due to his other gifts.

[Gomes3PC]

Phenomenal article on this draft from a statistical perspective. Cliff Notes:

1. He realllllyyy likes Wade Baldwin.
2. Simmons is being overly punished for his lack of a jumper given how dominant he was in other ways
3. Ingram is gonna be good, but ceiling may be a bit overhyped
4. Likes Dunn, some concerns about Hield and Murray given their defensive / passing issues
5. Jaylen Brown = Tony Wroten, both good and bad
6. Tons of interesting guys in the 2nd round of this draft = great for the Celtics
7. Thomas Walkup, assuming he has close to NBA athleticism, could be a superb role player
8. Cat Barber could end up being a nice role player
9. Don't ask Denzel Valentine to be a playmaker / ballhandler for your team
10. Compares this to 2013 draft, where there was actually some good depth but little clarity at the top. Think there's more clarity this year (at least #1 / #2) but can see the comparison to some degree.
11. GPII - could be a superstar if he can become a mediocre shooter
12. Likes Brice Johnson and Chinanu Onuaku among the bigs, though this article was mostly guard/wing discussion

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-vii/

The guy is a poster in the 76ers board, really interesting statistically although his writing is somewhat murky and heavy.

The comp to 2013 is okay but this draft is more like 2011, or a mix of both I'd say.

I think he really overrates GP, defensively sure, but is not only his shooting, the guy is not precisely a shot creator, he is a stud athletically, but Markel Brown was as well, he didnt really play full-time floor general for the Beavers, I think he gets too deep with the stats in his case.

Totally agree. It's a bit to Hinkie-ish to me, but I always appreciate thorough work. Makes me want to watch some more of Baldwin, Walkup and a few other guys I hadn't thought enough about based on his statistical review though. Also confirms my man-crush on Chinanu Onuaku. If he'd played more minutes and on a team not banned from the postseason, he'd be a top-20 pick. Bouncy, great finisher, frame to play center in the NBA and a good passer.