claycarver wrote:sam_I_am wrote:claycarver wrote:
Sam, that's excellent. It's exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. We typically have about 235,000 deaths per month in the United States but I was pretty sure that would drop (minus corona related deaths) because there's so much less contact for the spread of other diseases and so much less activity that leads to accidental deaths. It could even be possible that we end the year with fewer deaths than average, right?
Sam, where did you get that data? I'd love to keep up with it.
It’s direct from CDC. Last week’s data could be inaccurate of course as not all death certificates collected. But the week before was 42000 so down trend immediately impacted by shutdown.
Of course, this is to be expected because there is less driving, partying, risk taking, murdering, arresting etc. and therefore less sudden deaths. The coronavirus deaths often occur 10 days or later into disease so right now we are at part of curve where positive tests are exploding but the expected deaths that result, which won’t happen for weeks, are lagging behind. In June we coukd probably see weekly totals higher than average. Until or unless we do, however, these numbers should be reason for thankfulness.
I hope it doesn’t get misconstrued as evidence that the country and world are overreacting to the very real threat.
Here is link:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
Right, of course not. Deaths will certainly swell going forward. But if we're seeing 20,000-ish fewer deaths a week right now, that offers quite a cushion.
Now, this will sound heartless, but not all deaths are equal. The future years of life represented by those deaths are significant too. If a 20 year old isn't caught in an auto accident and goes on to live to to be 85 years old, that has a different impact than an 80 year old who dies of the virus. Substitute 80,000-ish retiree deaths for 80,000-ish young adult deaths and that has to have some repercussions.
No, I'm not suggesting that the life of a 20 year old matters more than the life of an 80 year old...although, I guess I would say that my teenager daughters have much more to offer at this point than I do. I've taken most of my most important swings already.
Anyway, it's all very interesting to keep up with.
There will be so many unforeseen repercussions that will result from this great, rapid trauma to the entire world such as those alluded to by Zora’s posts about mental health. Any positive spin on it now is worth embracing. The most positive of all is that the youngest of our population - our children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews under 16 - while not immune to tragedy, are not getting hit as hard as we are.
