Danny Ainge Appreciation Thread

[grantlongforpresident]

Danny has drafted as well as anyone in the league. Look at the no. 1 picks in the post-Big Three era, since the rebuild began in earnest:

2013--Kelly Olynyk
2014--Marcus Smart, James Young
2015--Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter
2016--Jaylen Brown, Gersshon Yabusele, Ante Zizic
2017--Jayson Tatum
2018--Robert Williams
2019--Romeo Langford, Grant Williams
2020--Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard

To accurately gauge these 14 draft picks you have to deal with whether that are high, middle or low first rounders. The degree of difficulty in drafting increases sharply as you draft lower in a round. And some years, like 2016, are utterly putrid. As fate would have it, Danny had like 7 picks in that draft. Bummer.

2 picks in the top 3, third overall each time...both grand slam home runs over the centerfield fence, right out of the ball park. If every other pick Danny made sucked, these two alone have set the team up for the next decade. And don't forget, in both 2016 and 2017 there were lots of people demanding that Danny select people like Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz. In redrafts of 2016 Jaylen goes no lower than 3, and may end up as 1 before the dust settles. Jayson is now and will be regarded as the no. 1 player in the 2017 draft.

1 pick in the 4-10 range: Marcus Smart, no. 6 overall. In a redraft Marcus goes as high as 4, no lower than 6. That includes Jokic who was drafted in the 2nd round. So superb job Danny.

6 picks in the 11-20 range. Two bowwows in James Young (2014) and Guerschon Yabusele (2016). Danny swung and missed on Young and the 2016 draft sucked monkey balls, so it wasn't like there were a lot of great options out there. Terry Rozier was a great pick in 2015 and will have a much longer and better career than most players picked in the mid first round. In a 2015 redraft Rozier would be in the top 10 easily. Likewise, Kelly Olynyk would likely be picked higher than 13th in a redraft for 2013. It was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft.

The jury is still out on the last two picks in the mid-first round, Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith, both selected at 14 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Color me optimistic they will have solid and fairly long careers if they remain healthy. It is not out of the question that they could have very good careers.

Here is a hot take for you: Remember all those people whining about how awful it was that the Cs just missed on Tyler Herro in the 2019 draft and got stuck with deadbeat Romeo? There is a chancre we will be hearing a lot less from them in time.

5 picks in that 20-30 range of the first round. This is where most players flop and Danny's record is still defensible, at least league average, and it will take ti,me to really know, since the best three picks in that range still in the league are all very young and on the Cs roster: Robert Williams, Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard. If healthy Robert Williams will go down as a spectacularly good selection. The jury is out on Grant W and Pritchard. But none will be a washout.

The same cannot be said for RJ Hunter (2015) and Ante Zizic (2016). Both are out of the league now. But it bears repeating that most players drafted in the 20s do not have functional careers. These are like 4th-6th round picks in the NFL draft.

Elrod. Would love to see you do a post on his key free agent signings.

[Elrod is Back]

That would be a chore, for sure. Unlike draft picks, FA signings have all sorts of contingencies that affect them. Take, for example, Kemba Walker. On the surface it seems like a terrible signing. A 4 year max contract to a 29 year-old 6 foot guard who would almost certainly not be an all-star by the final two years of the deal, even w/o injuries. Danny ties up capspace and has handcuffed the team, not allowing it to afford keeping Gordon Hayward, for example, or forcing it to dump players like Theis to stay out of the luxury tax.

But go back to July 2019. The Cs had just lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford to free agency. The team had had a season with abysmal chemistry and then basically looked like monkey **** in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Morale across Celtics nation was rock bottom, damned near suicidal. The future was grim.

Enter Kemba (and exit Rozier). The Cs get an all-star for one year, a trip to the ECF, a burst of enthusiasm, and one of the best people ever to wear a Cs uniform. A person who was the ideal teammate. How successful was the signing? After one season Celtics nation was ready for the finals and contention, instead of another round of lottery pick seasons. Kemba was a huge success.

But then his knee gives way and he looks like a noose around our necks.

What if Danny in July 2019 said, "hell (OK, Danny doesn't swear), heck, we are not winning for two three years. Let's re-sign Terry Rozier, hoard our capspace and build around the Jays." Right now that looks like a more prudent course. But it might not have been so popular with Brad or the Jays or the owners or the people screaming for blood whenever the Cs don't play well.

So Danny rolled the dice and he lost. But if Kemba had continued to be an iron man, like he was in Charlotte, this story might have had a happier ending than looks to be the case now.

That's what I mean by contingencies.

[Curmudgeon]

I'm starting a rumor that Ainge will manage the Yankees after they fire Aaron Boone.

[BostonCouchGM]

Danny has drafted as well as anyone in the league. Look at the no. 1 picks in the post-Big Three era, since the rebuild began in earnest:

2013--Kelly Olynyk
2014--Marcus Smart, James Young
2015--Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter
2016--Jaylen Brown, Gersshon Yabusele, Ante Zizic
2017--Jayson Tatum
2018--Robert Williams
2019--Romeo Langford, Grant Williams
2020--Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard

To accurately gauge these 14 draft picks you have to deal with whether that are high, middle or low first rounders. The degree of difficulty in drafting increases sharply as you draft lower in a round. And some years, like 2016, are utterly putrid. As fate would have it, Danny had like 7 picks in that draft. Bummer.

2 picks in the top 3, third overall each time...both grand slam home runs over the centerfield fence, right out of the ball park. If every other pick Danny made sucked, these two alone have set the team up for the next decade. And don't forget, in both 2016 and 2017 there were lots of people demanding that Danny select people like Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz. In redrafts of 2016 Jaylen goes no lower than 3, and may end up as 1 before the dust settles. Jayson is now and will be regarded as the no. 1 player in the 2017 draft.

1 pick in the 4-10 range: Marcus Smart, no. 6 overall. In a redraft Marcus goes as high as 4, no lower than 6. That includes Jokic who was drafted in the 2nd round. So superb job Danny.

6 picks in the 11-20 range. Two bowwows in James Young (2014) and Guerschon Yabusele (2016). Danny swung and missed on Young and the 2016 draft sucked monkey balls, so it wasn't like there were a lot of great options out there. Terry Rozier was a great pick in 2015 and will have a much longer and better career than most players picked in the mid first round. In a 2015 redraft Rozier would be in the top 10 easily. Likewise, Kelly Olynyk would likely be picked higher than 13th in a redraft for 2013. It was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft.

The jury is still out on the last two picks in the mid-first round, Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith, both selected at 14 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Color me optimistic they will have solid and fairly long careers if they remain healthy. It is not out of the question that they could have very good careers.

Here is a hot take for you: Remember all those people whining about how awful it was that the Cs just missed on Tyler Herro in the 2019 draft and got stuck with deadbeat Romeo? There is a chancre we will be hearing a lot less from them in time.

5 picks in that 20-30 range of the first round. This is where most players flop and Danny's record is still defensible, at least league average, and it will take ti,me to really know, since the best three picks in that range still in the league are all very young and on the Cs roster: Robert Williams, Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard. If healthy Robert Williams will go down as a spectacularly good selection. The jury is out on Grant W and Pritchard. But none will be a washout.

The same cannot be said for RJ Hunter (2015) and Ante Zizic (2016). Both are out of the league now. But it bears repeating that most players drafted in the 20s do not have functional careers. These are like 4th-6th round picks in the NFL draft.

he's objectively a bad drafter and this was beaten to death and proven beyond a reasonable doubt years ago. But I DO love reminding people of his ineptness

2013
Year 1 of a rebuild after trading KG and Pierce and knowing Rondo was a problem child on his way out. Teams facing a rebuild should always with no exceptions, take the high upside player who has elite traits. Luckily Giannis and Gobert were there for the taking! Too bad Danny can't draft and he took the older, high floor low ceiling Olynyk. The kind of player you take when you need a #5 because you're loaded with stars and need someone to contribute right away.

2014
Took James Young over: Capela, Bogdanovic, Dinwiddie, Grant and current MVP Jokic

2016
Took Yabusele and Zizic over: Dejounte Murray, Siakam, Brogdon, and FVV

2019
Took Williams over: Bazley, Keldon Johnson, KPJ, and Claxton
Took Edwards over: Bol, Roby, Brissett, and Dort

2020
Traded the #30 pick away with the following still on the board and us having one of the worst benches in the league:
Bane
Bey
Woodard
Reed

hitting on top 3 picks is expected. Only terrible G.M.s screw picks like that up. Praising him for meeting expectations is a reach. And he had those picks because of the Nets haul which his owner forced him to keep going back and getting more out of the Nets. Imagine how awful things would have been had he not had the Nets picks.

One championships in 18 years as G.M. Good riddance.

[grantlongforpresident]

That would be a chore, for sure. Unlike draft picks, FA signings have all sorts of contingencies that affect them. Take, for example, Kemba Walker. On the surface it seems like a terrible signing. A 4 year max contract to a 29 year-old 6 foot guard who would almost certainly not be an all-star by the final two years of the deal, even w/o injuries. Danny ties up capspace and has handcuffed the team, not allowing it to afford keeping Gordon Hayward, for example, or forcing it to dump players like Theis to stay out of the luxury tax.

But go back to July 2019. The Cs had just lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford to free agency. The team had had a season with abysmal chemistry and then basically looked like monkey **** in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Morale across Celtics nation was rock bottom, damned near suicidal. The future was grim.

Enter Kemba (and exit Rozier). The Cs get an all-star for one year, a trip to the ECF, a burst of enthusiasm, and one of the best people ever to wear a Cs uniform. A person who was the ideal teammate. How successful was the signing? After one season Celtics nation was ready for the finals and contention, instead of another round of lottery pick seasons. Kemba was a huge success.

But then his knee gives way and he looks like a noose around our necks.

What if Danny in July 2019 said, "hell (OK, Danny doesn't swear), heck, we are not winning for two three years. Let's re-sign Terry Rozier, hoard our capspace and build around the Jays." Right now that looks like a more prudent course. But it might not have been so popular with Brad or the Jays or the owners or the people screaming for blood whenever the Cs don't play well.

So Danny rolled the dice and he lost. But if Kemba had continued to be an iron man, like he was in Charlotte, this story might have had a happier ending than looks to be the case now.

That's what I mean by contingencies.

One down! Haha. My guess is overall it’s not as flattering. I feel like Ainge did a nice job in the draft. But free agency ended up being mixed.

[Elrod is Back]

Danny has drafted as well as anyone in the league. Look at the no. 1 picks in the post-Big Three era, since the rebuild began in earnest:

2013--Kelly Olynyk
2014--Marcus Smart, James Young
2015--Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter
2016--Jaylen Brown, Gersshon Yabusele, Ante Zizic
2017--Jayson Tatum
2018--Robert Williams
2019--Romeo Langford, Grant Williams
2020--Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard

To accurately gauge these 14 draft picks you have to deal with whether that are high, middle or low first rounders. The degree of difficulty in drafting increases sharply as you draft lower in a round. And some years, like 2016, are utterly putrid. As fate would have it, Danny had like 7 picks in that draft. Bummer.

2 picks in the top 3, third overall each time...both grand slam home runs over the centerfield fence, right out of the ball park. If every other pick Danny made sucked, these two alone have set the team up for the next decade. And don't forget, in both 2016 and 2017 there were lots of people demanding that Danny select people like Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz. In redrafts of 2016 Jaylen goes no lower than 3, and may end up as 1 before the dust settles. Jayson is now and will be regarded as the no. 1 player in the 2017 draft.

1 pick in the 4-10 range: Marcus Smart, no. 6 overall. In a redraft Marcus goes as high as 4, no lower than 6. That includes Jokic who was drafted in the 2nd round. So superb job Danny.

6 picks in the 11-20 range. Two bowwows in James Young (2014) and Guerschon Yabusele (2016). Danny swung and missed on Young and the 2016 draft sucked monkey balls, so it wasn't like there were a lot of great options out there. Terry Rozier was a great pick in 2015 and will have a much longer and better career than most players picked in the mid first round. In a 2015 redraft Rozier would be in the top 10 easily. Likewise, Kelly Olynyk would likely be picked higher than 13th in a redraft for 2013. It was a solid pick in a relatively weak draft.

The jury is still out on the last two picks in the mid-first round, Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith, both selected at 14 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Color me optimistic they will have solid and fairly long careers if they remain healthy. It is not out of the question that they could have very good careers.

Here is a hot take for you: Remember all those people whining about how awful it was that the Cs just missed on Tyler Herro in the 2019 draft and got stuck with deadbeat Romeo? There is a chancre we will be hearing a lot less from them in time.

5 picks in that 20-30 range of the first round. This is where most players flop and Danny's record is still defensible, at least league average, and it will take ti,me to really know, since the best three picks in that range still in the league are all very young and on the Cs roster: Robert Williams, Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard. If healthy Robert Williams will go down as a spectacularly good selection. The jury is out on Grant W and Pritchard. But none will be a washout.

The same cannot be said for RJ Hunter (2015) and Ante Zizic (2016). Both are out of the league now. But it bears repeating that most players drafted in the 20s do not have functional careers. These are like 4th-6th round picks in the NFL draft.

he's objectively a bad drafter and this was beaten to death and proven beyond a reasonable doubt years ago. But I DO love reminding people of his ineptness

2013
Year 1 of a rebuild after trading KG and Pierce and knowing Rondo was a problem child on his way out. Teams facing a rebuild should always with no exceptions, take the high upside player who has elite traits. Luckily Giannis and Gobert were there for the taking! Too bad Danny can't draft and he took the older, high floor low ceiling Olynyk. The kind of player you take when you need a #5 because you're loaded with stars and need someone to contribute right away.

2014
Took James Young over: Capela, Bogdanovic, Dinwiddie, Grant and current MVP Jokic

2016
Took Yabusele and Zizic over: Dejounte Murray, Siakam, Brogdon, and FVV

2019
Took Williams over: Bazley, Keldon Johnson, KPJ, and Claxton
Took Edwards over: Bol, Roby, Brissett, and Dort

2020
Traded the #30 pick away with the following still on the board and us having one of the worst benches in the league:
Bane
Bey
Woodard
Reed

hitting on top 3 picks is expected. Only terrible G.M.s screw picks like that up. Praising him for meeting expectations is a reach. And he had those picks because of the Nets haul which his owner forced him to keep going back and getting more out of the Nets. Imagine how awful things would have been had he not had the Nets picks.

One championships in 18 years as G.M. Good riddance.

Absolutely no GM in NBA history could survive this analysis unless they had a very short career. Every GM has made picks where there were vastly superior players avalibale later in the same draft. My God, by this standard, Red Auerbach could be flame-broiled as the biggest dimwit ever. Here are some of the players he passed on to draft other guys, most of whom never amounted to much at all:

Gus Johnson (1963, instead he took Bill Green)
Willis Reed (1964, instead he took Mel Counts)
Dick Van Arsdale (1965, instead he took Ollie Johnson)
Mike Newlin or Clifford Ray (1971, instead he took Clarence Glover)
Caldwell Jones (1973, instead he took Steve Downing)
Gus Williams or Dan Roundfield (1975, instead he took Tom Boswell)
Alex English (1976, instead he took Norm Cook)
Eddie Johnson (1981, instead he took Charles Bradley)
Doc Rivers (1983, instead he took Greg Kite)
Jerome Kersey (1984, instead he took Michael Young)
Terry Porter (1985, instead he took Sam Vincent)
Tim Hardaway or Shawn Kemp (instead he took Michael Smith).

Fortunately, Red rose to the occasion enough to keep the Cs competitive with first round picks during this same period of Havlicek (1962), White (1968), Chaney (1969), Cowens (1970), Maxwell (1977), Bird (1978), McHale (1980), Lewis (1987). A majority of his first round picks were horrible. Guys who never did jack squat. But he hit on enough studs to keep a dynasty alive over four decades.

OK, that is ancient history. Today we have analytics, No excuses today. No failure permissible. You have to nail all the picks, especially in the lottery. So let's look at the most successful team on the last decade, the Golden State Warriors, a team largely built through the drafting of three core superstars: Curry (2009 no. 1), Thompson (2011 no. 1), and in 2012, a second rounder on Draymond Green. Let's see how they did on the other lottery picks in their formative period:

2008--Anthony Randolph (14th overall), who ended up in Europe--who was on the board then? Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic
2010--Ekpe Udoh (7th overall), who was a total bust--who was on the board then? Paul George and Gordon Hayward
2012--Harrison Barnes (7th overall)--not a bad pick, but no superstar. He was traded to create capspace to sign Kevin Durant in 2016.

So even the dynasty builders in Golden State blew two lottery picks right out their butts when studs were on the board!

Moral of the story-- Even the greatest drafters are going to blow picks. The key think is to connect often enough, and to connect every now and then on a superstar.

Danny Ainge meets that standard, as did Red Auerbach and the dudes at Golden State.

PS--No, top 3 picks are not always slam dunks. At least 12 of the 30 top three picks from 2010 to 2019 would not be top 7 in a redraft, and most of those 12 would be late lottery or worse. All 12 were bad picks. That's 40 percent if you are keeping score at home.

[SuperDeluxe]

Sorry Elrod, you resort to facts too much. Your post won't convert anybody.

[Just Woke Up]

If ya can't see how Ainge was good for the team, then I really don't know what to say...

Thankfully it's a real team effort to run a team. Ainge is retired, but we shouldn't expect any radical shifts.

[Bostondave]

I think Danny was a good GM plagued with some bad luck. Hindsight is always 20/20. One thing I didn't agree with was him sort of making the stretch for Kyrie. I didn't like it at the time. I was always of the opinion that we should have been more patient instead of trying to leapfrog and buy into winning. Should've kept the picks and rode with them. But Kyrie was a miscalculation and stroke of bad luck. More bad luck was after getting both O'Neals to have them both get injured. Getting Haywood and him immediately breaking in half. And then getting Kemba only to have him be hobbled. That is by any reasonable measure just plain old bad luck. Nothing can be done about injuries. Besides making the ill-fated stretch for Kyrie I like most of what he's done. And lets not forget what he swung in '08 was pure magic. And I mean magic. A beautiful thing. Pure magic. Bad luck afterwards with Kedrick gettting hurt in game 6 in '10 and it was all over from there. We should've come away with at least two or three more rings during that stretch.

[zoyathedestroya]

As we praise Ime and Brad for this turnaround, here's a friendly reminder that 82% of the minutes played by the Celtics this season are with players drafted, originally signed, and/or traded for by Danny Ainge. Stevens is also part of the Ainge GM tree.



Six of the current main rotation guys are Ainge draftees. Another two are Ainge signees. White is the only Brad find.

Spoiler:

[djFan71]

As we praise Ime and Brad for this turnaround, here's a friendly reminder that 82% of the minutes played by the Celtics this season are with players drafted, originally signed, and/or traded for by Danny Ainge. Stevens is also part of the Ainge GM tree.



Six of the current main rotation guys are Ainge draftees. Another two are Ainge signees. White is the only Brad find.

Spoiler:

Totally agree, but I wonder if he can get credit for Al or Theis anymore. Maybe only 17.6% of their minutes.
And he probably gets 8.2% credit for White since he traded for Fournier so we could create a TPE to sign Josh (and drafted Romeo) so Brad could trade for White.

[sam_I_am]

I have always been a huge fan of Danny. His decision to draft Zizic and Yabu was so he could stash them and offer a max deal to KD. KD actually came to town for a visit and Danny got Tom Brady to make a sales pitch which was 100% worth it. We can nitpick individual drafts all day and lament near misses like Herro or wrong picks like Nesmith over Bey or Bane, but the body of work is remarkable.

That said, I think one critique that is legitimate is that he failed to recognize Brad’s desire for positionless basketball and chose star power over the qualities that made the ECF run in 2017 so special. Had he doubled down the way Brad is doing for Ime right now, the last 3 years might have been different. Clearly in retrospect, letting Big Al and Rozier go to get Kemba was a terrible mistake.

[Bad-Thoma]

he's objectively a bad drafter and this was beaten to death and proven beyond a reasonable doubt years ago. But I DO love reminding people of his ineptness

According to the ruling by the Suffolk County Superior Court, in regards to the case, "Sane Posters of the Celtics RealGM board (et al) vs BostonCouchGM", you hereby forfeit the right to use the word "objective" in posts EXCEPTING instances in which you use the word "objective" in an ironic and introspective manner. Furthermore, should you choose to violate the findings of the esteemed court, you will forfeit all rights with regards to protection and sympathy associated with being pointed and laughed at.

[Fencer reregistered]

You know what's weird?

For as long as the Jays are here, the Cs will still be enjoying benefits from having Paul Pierce fall to them in the 1998 draft.

But of course it's at least as accurate to say that the Cs will be enjoying benefits from Ainge drafting Al Jefferson and later trading him for Kevin Garnett.

[ParticleMan]

In 2014-2018 (4/5 years), Ainge drafted first-round picks that today make up 4/5 of the starters on the hottest team in the NBA.
The one other year, he drafted Rozier which is probably the one guy he regrets letting go.

[zoyathedestroya]

In 2014-2018 (4/5 years), Ainge drafted first-round picks that today make up 4/5 of the starters on the hottest team in the NBA.
The one other year, he drafted Rozier which is probably the one guy he regrets letting go.

He's hit on at least one player every year in this rebuild. Not too many GMs can draft a rotation player in that many consecutive years while only being in the lottery once.

2013: Olynyk
2014: Smart
2015: Rozier
2016: Brown
2017: Tatum
2018: Timelord
2019: Grant
2020: Pritchard

He just had so many picks in that span that it's difficult not to notice the misses.

[chakdaddy]

Still can't get over Olynyk. Totally incompatible with the rebuild done the same day. Couldve tanked and developed Giannis. This and Giddens over DeAndre are unconscionable. So was Yabusele, although there weren't no- Brainer alternatives.

He was good otherwise, but probably cost about 3-4 championships by passing on no-brainer choices that perfect fit team needs and situation

[Curmudgeon]

Right. Auerbach passed on some good players, but he never missed a superstar, with the possible exception of Willis Reed, and in the case of Reed, Auerbach already had the GOAT playing the same position.

[Fencer reregistered]

Right. Auerbach passed on some good players, but he never missed a superstar, with the possible exception of Willis Reed, and in the case of Reed, Auerbach already had the GOAT playing the same position.

Red's track record drafting #12 or later was a lot like Danny's, if it was even as good. He got Maxwell, K C and Ainge. Danny got Jefferson, Rondo and Timelord. Danny also got Tony Allen, Perk, Bradley, et al., but perhaps Red also got a few low-end starters I'm not currently recalling. (And was K C really better than Avery or Tony anyway?)

[BK_2020]

Still can't get over Olynyk. Totally incompatible with the rebuild done the same day. Couldve tanked and developed Giannis. This and Giddens over DeAndre are unconscionable. So was Yabusele, although there weren't no- Brainer alternatives.

He was good otherwise, but probably cost about 3-4 championships by passing on no-brainer choices that perfect fit team needs and situation

Honestly Giannis was such a shot in the dark, as was Jokic, Jimmy Butler, and Gobert. You can't hold people accountable for not getting that one late pick that worked out in the wildest possible way. If Giannis was a no-brainer choice he wouldn't have fallen out of the lottery. The Bucks 2013 draft was widely criticized. https://archive.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/213861521.html

It's easy to be an expert on the 2013 draft in 2022.