hugepatsfan wrote:If you see Chisholm in Celtic home games, I don't think he's thinking about the tax
I don't think the decision to duck the tax will be about this year. It will be about the longer term outlook. This roster is going to push the 2nd apron after next year if they keep everyone and add a center. If they don't duck the tax this year and next, that will be at repeater rates. There's a lot of room in between "cheap owner" and "can't afford 2nd apron salaries at repeater rates".
Tatum/Brown/White only have so many years left. if you can avoid it, you don't want to put yourself in a position where in 2 years you need to have another financially motivated offseason like you did this past year where you have to let proven guys go and replace them with lottery tickets. All our lottery tickets this year have cashed in, but that's not the most easily repeatable thing.
Now obviously you have to weigh the trade offs. Don't give up a great shot at a title this year to maybe have one in the future. It's a balancing act. But when I consider the likely diminished version of Tatum we get this year when he is back, the relative expendability of Simons and/or Hauser and the long term outlook, I still think it's in the best interests of the team to duck the tax this year and next. But because the team is playing so well, they can add draft capital to those trades to where it net improves the team while also saving money. And doing so will set them up so they can compete annually for titles for the rest of the Tatum/Brown/White window without ever having to do any sort of financial reset again in that span. And I think not having Simons and/or Hauser for this playoff run is a justifiable trade off for that.
You also have to think about the cost of giving up picks to facilitate a cost cutting trade. We have our own 1st (likely #20-25) we have Pels 2nd (likely 31-35) and we have Bucks 2nd (likely 38-48)... We may have to deal one, two or all three to facilitate cap-savings trades.
But now that we've seen Hugo, Walsh, and Scheiermen, there is a case to keep our picks and select 2 or 3 rookies (even trade up) and showcase them over next year that they become trade assets on cheap money... imagine our optionality if we had two or three players on rookie scale terms who are on the asset level of Hugo Gonzalzez. We'd have lots of options should we go into the trade market with Hauser's matching money, or even Derrick's matching money in a couple of years, and several young prospects to trade. Or we could just play some young guys, mix them in with the vets how the Spurs counted on young players Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Cory Joseph to supplement the veteran rotation for the 2012-2014 playoff runs
In our 2008-2010 run we had contributors on rookie deals: Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen, Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis... and I think Brad could find some draftees that could compare to that era's youngins... so just drafting some players and accepting we're gonna pay the tax this year and then get younger, cheaper and more flexible next season, that has appeal... and we get to see the team with Simons, Hauser, etc go into this playoffs and who knows, maybe JT comes back and plays himself somewhat back and we make some noise in the playoffs and just eat the tax and keep our picks
