Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[claycarver]

Looking at the excess deaths, the difference between states was striking. Florida, for instance, has seen almost no excess deaths during the crisis, while New Jersey's excess deaths have exploded, reaching over 200% of the expected deaths in some weeks. After I found out that nursing home deaths account for over 80% of the total covid deaths in my county, I started spot checking a few nursing home stats from states. Here's what I found

In New Jersey, as of May 9, 8% of nursing home patients have died.
In Maryland, as of May 13, 4.5% of nursing home patents have died.
In Florida, as of May 9, only .4% of nursing home patients have died.

That's 1 in 12 in New Jersey vs 1 in 250 in Florida. The overall death rate from state to state is inconsistent, but the difference in nursing home deaths from state to state is jarring.

Whatever else Florida did right or wrong, locking down the nursing homes was a game changer.

[theman]

A Boston city worker sent us these disturbing images of Meth Mile junkies being herded like cattle into cages at the corner of Mass Ave and Melnea Cass, in what the city is calling “comfort stations.” You’ll notice that almost no one is wearing a mask, despite being dirty and dope sick by nature, and no social distancing is being adhered to because they’re literally stuck in cages.

https://turtleboysports.com/city-of-boston-organizes-junkie-jamboree-lets-addicts-do-drugs-in-caged-areas-to-prevent-spread-of-commie-cold/

[Bad-Thoma]

A Boston city worker sent us these disturbing images of Meth Mile junkies being herded like cattle into cages at the corner of Mass Ave and Melnea Cass, in what the city is calling “comfort stations.” You’ll notice that almost no one is wearing a mask, despite being dirty and dope sick by nature, and no social distancing is being adhered to because they’re literally stuck in cages.

https://turtleboysports.com/city-of-boston-organizes-junkie-jamboree-lets-addicts-do-drugs-in-caged-areas-to-prevent-spread-of-commie-cold/

Jesus **** Christ, I looked at that Turtleboy bullsh*t page and I'm worried about you. There is an article titled, "Bill de Blasio Says NYC Has a Jewish Problem That Requires A Final Solution." Here, on a similar note did you know that Bat Boy is actually patient zero for covid 19 and is likely brewing up covid 20 as we speak?

[SuperDeluxe]

A Boston city worker sent us these disturbing images of Meth Mile junkies being herded like cattle into cages at the corner of Mass Ave and Melnea Cass, in what the city is calling “comfort stations.” You’ll notice that almost no one is wearing a mask, despite being dirty and dope sick by nature, and no social distancing is being adhered to because they’re literally stuck in cages.

https://turtleboysports.com/city-of-boston-organizes-junkie-jamboree-lets-addicts-do-drugs-in-caged-areas-to-prevent-spread-of-commie-cold/

Jesus **** Christ, I looked at that Turtleboy bullsh*t page and I'm worried about you. There is an article titled, "Bill de Blasio Says NYC Has a Jewish Problem That Requires A Final Solution." Here, on a similar note did you know that Bat Boy is actually patient zero for covid 19 and is likely brewing up covid 20 as we speak?

So you did not sign up for the ad-free version of the site?

I can't believe real, breathing people actually consume the trash that that website publishes.

[floyd]

https://turtleboysports.com/city-of-boston-organizes-junkie-jamboree-lets-addicts-do-drugs-in-caged-areas-to-prevent-spread-of-commie-cold/

Jesus **** Christ, I looked at that Turtleboy bullsh*t page and I'm worried about you. There is an article titled, "Bill de Blasio Says NYC Has a Jewish Problem That Requires A Final Solution." Here, on a similar note did you know that Bat Boy is actually patient zero for covid 19 and is likely brewing up covid 20 as we speak?

So you did not sign up for the ad-free version of the site?

I can't believe real, breathing people actually consume the trash that that website publishes.

Kind of looks more like an ordinary fence than cages to me. But maybe from the right perspective it’s a 20 foot concrete wall with shards of glass sticking out - who can really tell?

[jmr07019]

What changed?

Watch on YouTube

[Slax]

A Boston city worker sent us these disturbing images of Meth Mile junkies being herded like cattle into cages at the corner of Mass Ave and Melnea Cass, in what the city is calling “comfort stations.” You’ll notice that almost no one is wearing a mask, despite being dirty and dope sick by nature, and no social distancing is being adhered to because they’re literally stuck in cages.

https://turtleboysports.com/city-of-boston-organizes-junkie-jamboree-lets-addicts-do-drugs-in-caged-areas-to-prevent-spread-of-commie-cold/

Jesus **** Christ, I looked at that Turtleboy bullsh*t page and I'm worried about you. There is an article titled, "Bill de Blasio Says NYC Has a Jewish Problem That Requires A Final Solution." Here, on a similar note did you know that Bat Boy is actually patient zero for covid 19 and is likely brewing up covid 20 as we speak?

I'm actually most offended by their total failure to understand Hamsterdam:

The whole purpose of Hamsterdam was to “juke the stats” by having less drug arrests in Baltimore.

The point of Hamsterdam was that it actually reduced violent crime because with drugs being effectively decriminalized, police were able to oversee the drug trade and protect the drug dealers from attacking each other, instead of focusing on busting them for possessing and selling drugs. This was explicitly explained by Colvin in the show, so it's not like it was difficult to understand or hidden from the audience. And in fact, if I remember correctly, Colvin refused to juke the stats the way the rest of the Baltimore police did in The Wire.

[Slax]

What changed?

Watch on YouTube

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/29/21273625/coronavirus-masks-required-virginia-china-hong-kong

I think what changed is that public health officials realized how easy it is to create reusable cloth mask, ramp up industrial production of disposable surgical masks, and dedicate the pipeline of hard-to-produce N95 masks almost exclusively to hospitals. There was a legitimate worry about hoarding and shortages of N95 masks and disposable surgical masks early on, and both types of masks (but especially the N95) are critical for health care workers, so public health officials did not want the public buying either type of mask early on in the crisis in February and March. Instead of leveling with the public and telling us that covering our faces could help reduce transmission but we had a shortage of N95 and surgical masks that were needed for health care, they instead emphasized that N95 masks require some level of training and fitting to provide their designed level of protection (true), and that surgical and cloth masks are much more effective at helping you not spread illness than preventing you from getting sick (also true), and did not really explain the big picture that there is a general societal benefit to lots of people wearing masks to reduce transmission so we should be covering our faces even if we shouldn't be hoarding N95 and surgical masks for personal use in the short term. Once there was a mass mobilization of people independently sewing and distributing cloth masks, advice on how to make your own face coverings, and domestic manufacturers ramped up production of surgical masks, it was clear that you could get every American a mask to reduce transmission. While the evidence of masks' effectiveness in reducing transmission is a little on the modest side (ie, there is evidence, but it's not as strong as we would like), the cost of wearing masks is so low that it's worth trying anyway.

This whole process actually makes me pretty upset at the way that American public health officials failed to educate the public and provide sound advice, in a way that I feel was meant for the greater good but ended up backfiring because they had to flip-flop when masks became widely available. I don't think anyone was necessarily being intentionally manipulative, but I do think they really underestimated the American people's capacity for innovation and economic production in a way that massively backfired on us all, because it meant that mask production didn't get ramped up as quickly as it should have and people weren't covering their faces once community spread started. In early March at the time of that Fauci interview, it was already clear that we had large scale community spread, that the virus could spread asymptomatically, and anyone could be unknowingly interacting with sick people, but public health officials like Fauci didn't start advising the public to all wear masks to prevent asymptomatic spread until April. By that point, we had already been blasted with information about how ineffective masks are, so the new messaging was contradictory and confusing.

[Froob]

How’s everybody making out? Any word on Kemba’s health?

[claycarver]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.

“You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” Peter Andersen, doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said on Thursday told Reuters.

[Captain_Caveman]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.

“You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” Peter Andersen, doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said on Thursday told Reuters.

Sure, containment works if you actually contain.

[claycarver]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.

“You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” Peter Andersen, doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said on Thursday told Reuters.

Sure, containment works if you actually contain.

That's true. States like Florida, which has almost exactly the same percentage of deaths per capita as Denmark, contained their nursing homes immediately. Like Denmark, they're opening up with no signs of the virus making a comeback.

Over 80% of the deaths have occurred in just 6 states...it's about 85% if you throw in Maryland, too. Most states need to look to countries that have done a good job containing the virus as examples of what to do next.

[Froob]

Hopefully the protest (which are a good thing) don’t lead to another spike. Doesn’t look like a lot of masks and social distancing going on.

[SuperDeluxe]

Probably a Celtics fan.

Read on Twitter

[jmr07019]

What changed?

Watch on YouTube

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/29/21273625/coronavirus-masks-required-virginia-china-hong-kong

I think what changed is that public health officials realized how easy it is to create reusable cloth mask, ramp up industrial production of disposable surgical masks, and dedicate the pipeline of hard-to-produce N95 masks almost exclusively to hospitals. There was a legitimate worry about hoarding and shortages of N95 masks and disposable surgical masks early on, and both types of masks (but especially the N95) are critical for health care workers, so public health officials did not want the public buying either type of mask early on in the crisis in February and March. Instead of leveling with the public and telling us that covering our faces could help reduce transmission but we had a shortage of N95 and surgical masks that were needed for health care, they instead emphasized that N95 masks require some level of training and fitting to provide their designed level of protection (true), and that surgical and cloth masks are much more effective at helping you not spread illness than preventing you from getting sick (also true), and did not really explain the big picture that there is a general societal benefit to lots of people wearing masks to reduce transmission so we should be covering our faces even if we shouldn't be hoarding N95 and surgical masks for personal use in the short term. Once there was a mass mobilization of people independently sewing and distributing cloth masks, advice on how to make your own face coverings, and domestic manufacturers ramped up production of surgical masks, it was clear that you could get every American a mask to reduce transmission. While the evidence of masks' effectiveness in reducing transmission is a little on the modest side (ie, there is evidence, but it's not as strong as we would like), the cost of wearing masks is so low that it's worth trying anyway.

This whole process actually makes me pretty upset at the way that American public health officials failed to educate the public and provide sound advice, in a way that I feel was meant for the greater good but ended up backfiring because they had to flip-flop when masks became widely available. I don't think anyone was necessarily being intentionally manipulative, but I do think they really underestimated the American people's capacity for innovation and economic production in a way that massively backfired on us all, because it meant that mask production didn't get ramped up as quickly as it should have and people weren't covering their faces once community spread started. In early March at the time of that Fauci interview, it was already clear that we had large scale community spread, that the virus could spread asymptomatically, and anyone could be unknowingly interacting with sick people, but public health officials like Fauci didn't start advising the public to all wear masks to prevent asymptomatic spread until April. By that point, we had already been blasted with information about how ineffective masks are, so the new messaging was contradictory and confusing.

Well said.

[Captain_Caveman]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7

Sure, containment works if you actually contain.

That's true. States like Florida, which has almost exactly the same percentage of deaths per capita as Denmark, contained their nursing homes immediately. Like Denmark, they're opening up with no signs of the virus making a comeback.

Over 80% of the deaths have occurred in just 6 states...it's about 85% if you throw in Maryland, too. Most states need to look to countries that have done a good job containing the virus as examples of what to do next.

I don't think you read that CDC table correctly. We know that Florida is clearly underreporting. They've had something like 6x the "pneumonia" deaths as their 5-year average by this time of year. Many health care researchers think we may be underreporting by as much as 30% nationally.

With that said, we don't really understand many of the complexities at work here yet. It seems possible if not likely that Florida did good work with protecting their nursing homes. There may also be advantages at work with regard to their climate and average daily temperature compared to NYC, Lombardy, Wuhan, etc...

For example, a lot of health care researchers are also confounded by things like San Francisco not getting hit by this. It is a dense urban area with extensive ties to China. Locking down a few days earlier than NYC doesn't seem to explain the full extent of the disparity between them. Was there prior widespread exposure to a similar conoravirus? We don't yet know why certain places are getting hit harder than others.

Simply put, it is very complex, dynamic, and contextual. The situation in Denmark may or may not be that similar to Florida, with policies that may or may not be transferable. Ditto for Florida to NY. What we do know is that we are probably looking at 250-500k dead by the end of 2021, with where we end up on that scale having a lot to do with our ability to successfully contain and limit outbreaks while we seek a vaccine or at least some mitigating treatments. Many places that open up too soon or do so without the ability to effectively test, trace, and isolate outbreaks will be on the wrong side of that equation.

[claycarver]

Sure, containment works if you actually contain.

That's true. States like Florida, which has almost exactly the same percentage of deaths per capita as Denmark, contained their nursing homes immediately. Like Denmark, they're opening up with no signs of the virus making a comeback.

Over 80% of the deaths have occurred in just 6 states...it's about 85% if you throw in Maryland, too. Most states need to look to countries that have done a good job containing the virus as examples of what to do next.

I don't think you read that CDC table correctly. We know that Florida is clearly underreporting. They've had something like 6x the "pneumonia" deaths as their 5-year average by this time of year. Many health care researchers think we may be underreporting by as much as 30% nationally.

With that said, we don't really understand many of the complexities at work here yet. It seems possible if not likely that Florida did good work with protecting their nursing homes. There may also be advantages at work with regard to their climate and average daily temperature compared to NYC, Lombardy, Wuhan, etc...

For example, a lot of health care researchers are also confounded by things like San Francisco not getting hit by this. It is a dense urban area with extensive ties to China. Locking down a few days earlier than NYC doesn't seem to explain the full extent of the disparity between them. Was there prior widespread exposure to a similar conoravirus? We don't yet know why certain places are getting hit harder than others.

Simply put, it is very complex, dynamic, and contextual. The situation in Denmark may or may not be that similar to Florida, with policies that may or may not be transferable. Ditto for Florida to NY. What we do know is that we are probably looking at 250-500k dead by the end of 2021, with where we end up on that scale having a lot to do with our ability to successfully contain and limit outbreaks while we seek a vaccine or at least some mitigating treatments. Many places that open up too soon or do so without the ability to effectively test, trace, and isolate outbreaks will be on the wrong side of that equation.

Yeah, I don't trust the way any of the states are reporting their deaths, including Florida. That's why I started focusing on their total deaths in excess of historical averages. The states can hide HOW people die, but they can't hide THAT people die. That get's away from the absurd game all these states are playing with their numbers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

When you track it by state, you can see that Florida excess deaths are very low...lower than they were during the flu season of 2018. And they're not nearly alone. As I said, when you cut out the top 6 or 7 states, there isn't a very high spike in overall excess deaths for most states. For instance, you can barely tell that Tennessee has had any part in this virus. Whether or not their absurdly low death total of 329 is accurate, Tennessee's total number of deaths suggests the number's close.

[claycarver]

What we do know is that we are probably looking at 250-500k dead by the end of 2021, with where we end up on that scale having a lot to do with our ability to successfully contain and limit outbreaks while we seek a vaccine or at least some mitigating treatments.

I forgot to address this part. I don't know if we'll get to your 250-500k mark, but I'm pretty sure they've underreported covid deaths to date, so I'm not trifling with it. That said, it seems very unlikely that we will see an increase of total deaths to match.

Covid deaths are concentrated among the oldest and sickest...people with a high mortality rate anyway. So a fairly high percentage of the people who have died were going to die from something else within the next few weeks and months. Which means many covid deaths have been "borrowed" from future week's death total.

There's even a possibility that we could start seeing future death totals below the weekly average even as covid deaths continue to pile up. So, while covid deaths continue to increase, it's possible that excess deaths for the year begin to decrease from the current total. Whether or not it actually begins to reverse the total, I think you can see this trend reflected in the weekly death count where the numbers are already approaching the upper boundary of normal. There were an estimated 3,497 excess deaths from the upper boundary the week ending May 16th, compared to a high of 19,510 the week ending April 11. It's a pretty steep decline.

[Captain_Caveman]

What we do know is that we are probably looking at 250-500k dead by the end of 2021, with where we end up on that scale having a lot to do with our ability to successfully contain and limit outbreaks while we seek a vaccine or at least some mitigating treatments.

I forgot to address this part. I don't know if we'll get to your 250-500k mark, but I'm pretty sure they've underreported covid deaths to date, so I'm not trifling with it. That said, it seems very unlikely that we will see an increase of total deaths to match.

Covid deaths are concentrated among the oldest and sickest...people with a high mortality rate anyway. So a fairly high percentage of the people who have died were going to die from something else within the next few weeks and months. Which means many covid deaths have been "borrowed" from future week's death total.

There's even a possibility that we could start seeing future death totals below the weekly average even as covid deaths continue to pile up. So, while covid deaths continue to increase, it's possible that excess deaths for the year begin to decrease from the current total. Whether or not it actually begins to reverse the total, I think you can see this trend reflected in the weekly death count where the numbers are already approaching the upper boundary of normal. There were an estimated 3,497 excess deaths from the upper boundary the week ending May 16th, compared to a high of 19,510 the week ending April 11. It's a pretty steep decline.

I think I have said before, but some of my smartest friend work in immunology and do research on vaccines. If resumes matter, one was a recent postdoc at Caltech and the other a Columbia/Stanford grad who has been working in the field for like 15 years now. So my thoughts on this are largely colored by the reasoned and detailed thinking they have made to me.

While both are somewhat optimistic, it's in the context of knowing exactly how bad this could have been or still could be. If anything, they both freely admit to perhaps being overly optimistic, because they want to believe in their field, and do know that there are paths forward. With that said, they also know how tough a challenge it is, and how taking those paths in the correct manner is a largely political/behavioral thing where all bets are off. There have been promising developments in terms of a vaccine, or at least treatments that mitigate. Even if successful and subsequently fast-tracked, talking about next spring at the absolute earliest for them to be widely available. And that is if they were developed in the next few weeks, which is unlikely.

One of them said back in mid-March that we'd have 100k by end of May and 250-500k by the end of the whole thing, provided we did rolling lockdowns into next year, practiced social distancing, and tested/traced/isolated. He stands by it, and after hearing his explanations, I do as well. The daily death totals should continue to gradually slow until flu season picks back up in the fall. Realistically, even without the nearly-inevitable future waves, we are already looking at 160-170k just from this one when you account for the likely underreporting (which I agree for the most part is getting more under control). So the lower end of that 250-500k is pretty optimistic. It also does go beyond the death totals, and your rather cold read of who is accounting for them, IMO. A lot of survivors will be debilitated permanently, or at least long-term.

[claycarver]

Holy crap! CDC just put out new numbers and excess deaths plummeted the week ending May 23. Weekly number of deaths below average for the first time since March 28. Awesome news

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm