2025 NBA Draft Thread, part 1 – Capture the Flagg

[redslastlaugh]

I don't see us drafting 2 guys in the top 32 picks. Even if we trim some payroll this summer, we're still going to be contenders and it's hard for rookies to get mins on a contender. So it's better to just draft 1 of them that high.

I also doubt we make both picks, 28 and 31. I dont think that's because contenders just dont have time for 2-3 rookies in general. Lots of contenders prioritize minutes for their young guys.

You look at the Spurs with Kawhi, Tiago Splitter, Patty Mills, etc. The Spurs teams always had 2-3 rookies every year. You look at OKC and how many rookies, second- and third year players are in their rotation. You look at the playoff minutes Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have got on Denver earlier in their careers. Even the Doc Rivers Celtics found minutes Rondo, Powe, Big Baby & Avery Bradley in year 1 or 2...

I think Brad has a strong opinion about the risk/return of players drafted outside the top of the draft and he doesnt think the juice is worth the squeeze for the average guy drafted in the 20s, 30s, 40s etc... he doesnt hold it against a guy like Derrick, Brogdon about not being drafted high once theyve developed into a proven contributor, but I dont think he wants to put his eggs into the basket of guys picked 28 or 32. And when you look at his coaching experience, all those guys Danny drafted in that range either did nothing (RJ Hunter, Jordan Mickey) or did very little their first couple of years (Rob, PP)...

I bet we do a deal like we did with the Desmond Bane pick. We used the asset of #30 to clear Kanters cap number and get two future 2nds... this could the fate of #28 and Xavier Tillman contract...

[Dogen]

I don't see us drafting 2 guys in the top 32 picks. Even if we trim some payroll this summer, we're still going to be contenders and it's hard for rookies to get mins on a contender. So it's better to just draft 1 of them that high.

I also doubt we make both picks, 28 and 31. I dont think that's because contenders just dont have time for 2-3 rookies in general. Lots of contenders prioritize minutes for their young guys.

You look at the Spurs with Kawhi, Tiago Splitter, Patty Mills, etc. The Spurs teams always had 2-3 rookies every year. You look at OKC and how many rookies, second- and third year players are in their rotation. You look at the playoff minutes Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have got on Denver earlier in their careers. Even the Doc Rivers Celtics found minutes Rondo, Powe, Big Baby & Avery Bradley in year 1 or 2...

I think Brad has a strong opinion about the risk/return of players drafted outside the top of the draft and he doesnt think the juice is worth the squeeze for the average guy drafted in the 20s, 30s, 40s etc... he doesnt hold it against a guy like Derrick, Brogdon about not being drafted high once theyve developed into a proven contributor, but I dont think he wants to put his eggs into the basket of guys picked 28 or 32. And when you look at his coaching experience, all those guys Danny drafted in that range either did nothing (RJ Hunter, Jordan Mickey) or did very little their first couple of years (Rob, PP)...

I bet we do a deal like we did with the Desmond Bane pick. We used the asset of #30 to clear Kanters cap number and get two future 2nds... this could the fate of #28 and Xavier Tillman contract...

Although I'd like to see some fresh talent infusion this year, the 2 pick scenario evades me as well. There just isn't the space, with 14 on the roster and a few prospects in the Maine pipeline.

To me, it looks like Davison, Tillman, Walsh, and maybe Peterson are on the bubble.

Does the team intend to further develop Davison? Give him a contract? Or can they find another player in the draft that will slot into that pipeline and get more return in the future for backcourt bench help? Labaron Philon. Boogie Fland. Kam Jones as examples. If not a firm upgrade, why not stick with guy with 3 years of experience? Jones could probably step in quickly with his experience, but the bench shooting is pretty crowded now with the emergence of Scheierman.

As pg/sg is not a big need yet, if only one pick is used, I'd rather find a more athletic tweener 4/5 to maybe replace Tillman eventually, someone that can fill some floor time for Tatum and Horford. Yaxel Lendeborg looks like an absolute specimen. He may be ready to contribute. Not sure what the upside is, but he has an NBA body already and seems like a solid guy for that 4/5 role. JT Toppin as well, although he doesn't seem to be talked about as much as last year.

As for Walsh, like Davison he's also still very young. It makes no sense to draft a guy like that and then move on after two years of development. He could really blossom next year. OTOH, he looks out of place standing in the corner waiting for threes. He can't really initiate the offense like Scheierman can. We haven't really seen the disruptive defender in him, and probably won't until we see more of the 3 in 3&D from him.

Since Toppin came for work outs last year (and I recall the team liked him? Not sure) I'd be happy with him or Lendeborg with the one pick as our new athletic defensive big and then trade the other pick. If Brad thinks the staff can handle another young prospect to develop, Labaron Philon could be a nice find with that other pick this year. Dude is giving me some Derrick White lite vibes. He's got good length with a skinny frame at 6'4", could be a nice backcourt addition with acouple years of patience.

TLDR; I doubt the C's use both picks, but I would like to see Philon and Lendeborg selected if the team can add two players to the development pipeline.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

I don't necessarily think having that two rookies is an issue on a contender and would prevent each other from growing into positive contributors. Hell you can argue that the Celtics did perfectly exactly that with their Nesmith/Pritchard draft in 2020 (even if the former finished his development elsewhere).

Considering that it'll take at least 2-3 years for any guy drafted by the Celtics to be ready for playoff minutes, you could also argue that now is the time to get young guys into the system. If you wait any longer most of the core will have aged out before the young guys are ready to contribute.

But I agree that the number of roster spots is the real issue. They already had to let go of Watson after less than a year because they don't have room and there's no player exodus on the horizon so it's not clear to me how the math for adding two rookies would add up. I think Stevens will also want to restock his shelf of second rounders since the surplus from trading down repeatedly to get Walsh is pretty much used up so trading one of the two picks for future assets makes a lot of sense.

It's conditional on Horford and/or Kornet coming back but potentially a minor trade that could both open up a roster spot (for a second rookie) and get future assets could be trading Queta for a second rounder or two.

[playa-hater]

Well, I'm gonna keep talking about it until I talk it into existence. Trade both picks upwards and get a truly gifted player versus 2 mid. Level talents.. If of course, that player exists and a trade is possible.

[Celts17Pride]

I think Brad Stevens is going to do the downward shuffle with the #28 pick like he did a few years ago and collect 2nd round picks. Celtics will probably pick #31 and something like #38. Celtics are going to need extra 2nd round picks to move players like Tillman, Walsh etc.

[phincsfan]

I think Brad Stevens is going to do the downward shuffle with the #28 pick like he did a few years ago and collect 2nd round picks. Celtics will probably pick #31 and something like #38. Celtics are going to need extra 2nd round picks to move players like Tillman, Walsh etc.

If players he is honing in on are falling, yes but if a target is there at #28 he should take him.

[165bows]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

[redslastlaugh]

the other factor to consider is that the second rounders at the top of the 2nd (Mogbo, Furphy, etc) all signed for the larger salaried 2nd round pick exception, so the first year salary was $1.9 million. But all of the 2nd rounders picked 39 and on (who got roster deals this summer) signed for the lesser salaried 2nd round pick exception, so the first year salary was $1.2 million. Rookie scale increases by 4% so this year the slots will be $2 million year one and $1.25 million year one.

If we are truly up against the 2nd apron, we may trade down from pick 31 to pick 40 or 50 just to sign the player at a first year number of $1.25 million rather than $2 million. I dont think any agent will let a player picked at #31 sign a contract starting at the lesser salary.

It depends, perhaps, how many roster spots need filling and how much wiggle room we have under the 2nd apron line as to whether we trade down for this purpose.

[return2glory]

The more I've been watching Michigan the more and more I'm liking Vladislav Goldin and hungry like the Wolf.
I want Vladislav Goldin with the late 1st round pick. Either would be good.

[Kalela]

I am starting to like Kadary Richmond as an NBA prospect. He is an older guy but he is a solid (maybe even elite) defender who can create his own shot.

Texas Tech prospects looked good today.

The Celtics already worked out JT Toppin twice in the past.

Idk anything about him but I've been wondering lately if the league isn't that great at scouting defense. Seems like some of the better defenders aren't rated that way ahead of time.

Teams likely overestimate their ability to acquire elite wing defenders in the second round or as undrafted free agents.

[djFan71]

Carter Bryant and the end of Duke’s rotation (Evans, Sion, Proctor) today should be good draft watching.

[Homerclease]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

[165bows]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I've kind of soured on Danny Wolf a good bit. Just feel like an offense first big man has to be an efficient scorer or at least an efficient offensive player to make it work.

Maybe I'm expecting too much for a young-ish overall big man but just seems like the shots don't go in at a high enough rate and too many TOs make me concerned.

[Dogen]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I'm concerned about fomo'ing Yaxel up the draft boards and he's suddenly out of reach. Looks like a solid choice in early second, maybe the late first. Like Oso Ighodaro last draft, he looks like be that he could be that rim running big with some muscle and passing. Oso looks nice in Phoenix, getting some minutes and doing the little things without having to have the ball.

[165bows]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I'm concerned about fomo'ing Yaxel up the draft boards and he's suddenly out of reach. Looks like a solid choice in early second, maybe the late first. Like Oso Ighodaro last draft, he looks like be that he could be that rim running big with some muscle and passing. Oso looks nice in Phoenix, getting some minutes and doing the little things without having to have the ball.

Apparently Yaxel barely played HS ball so he's relatively inexperienced for a productive senior. Curious what more development he has, though def tempered by the fact he hasn't played the toughest comp for his age.

[phincsfan]

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I'm concerned about fomo'ing Yaxel up the draft boards and he's suddenly out of reach. Looks like a solid choice in early second, maybe the late first. Like Oso Ighodaro last draft, he looks like be that he could be that rim running big with some muscle and passing. Oso looks nice in Phoenix, getting some minutes and doing the little things without having to have the ball.

Apparently Yaxel barely played HS ball so he's relatively inexperienced for a productive senior. Curious what more development he has, though def tempered by the fact he hasn't played the toughest comp for his age.

Both good points. Reminds me a little of Duren from Detroit.

[165bows]

I'm concerned about fomo'ing Yaxel up the draft boards and he's suddenly out of reach. Looks like a solid choice in early second, maybe the late first. Like Oso Ighodaro last draft, he looks like be that he could be that rim running big with some muscle and passing. Oso looks nice in Phoenix, getting some minutes and doing the little things without having to have the ball.

Apparently Yaxel barely played HS ball so he's relatively inexperienced for a productive senior. Curious what more development he has, though def tempered by the fact he hasn't played the toughest comp for his age.

Both good points. Reminds me a little of Duren from Detroit.

I think he's a good bit smaller than that, my guess is he's as close to 6'8" than 6'9", but with a long wingspan.

I just want strong mobile versatile guys with solid skill, that's what they seem like they want for this team.

Trade back and pick up a future second and get Yaxel and Sion James on 2nd round contracts. Strong capable versatile guys that can fill in spots on this team.

[Homerclease]

Yaxel man they drafting this guy or what

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I've kind of soured on Danny Wolf a good bit. Just feel like an offense first big man has to be an efficient scorer or at least an efficient offensive player to make it work.

Maybe I'm expecting too much for a young-ish overall big man but just seems like the shots don't go in at a high enough rate and too many TOs make me concerned.

Bigs that can pass out of the high post thrive here. Horford, KP, Rob Williams, all very very good at it. Even Luke has come far in this regard.

[165bows]

I’ll take Yaxel and Danny Wolf all day. All depends on what they get in return for moving a couple guys to get under the second apron

I've kind of soured on Danny Wolf a good bit. Just feel like an offense first big man has to be an efficient scorer or at least an efficient offensive player to make it work.

Maybe I'm expecting too much for a young-ish overall big man but just seems like the shots don't go in at a high enough rate and too many TOs make me concerned.

Bigs that can pass out of the high post thrive here. Horford, KP, Rob Williams, all very very good at it. Even Luke has come far in this regard.

100% they love that capability, just feel like he is a really high turnover guy for that role so he’s got to have a lot of growth there.

Olynyk had some similar turnover issues and remained pretty TO prone as a pro, but was a solid useful guy. KO was also ultra efficient as a college scorer though whereas Wolf is a better rebounder than those two but is a pretty poorly efficient scorer, much much worse than KO was.

So maybe he can develop these areas just seems like there are some big areas that need a lot of development.

[shackles10]

I've kind of soured on Danny Wolf a good bit. Just feel like an offense first big man has to be an efficient scorer or at least an efficient offensive player to make it work.

Maybe I'm expecting too much for a young-ish overall big man but just seems like the shots don't go in at a high enough rate and too many TOs make me concerned.

Bigs that can pass out of the high post thrive here. Horford, KP, Rob Williams, all very very good at it. Even Luke has come far in this regard.

100% they love that capability, just feel like he is a really high turnover guy for that role so he’s got to have a lot of growth there.

Olynyk had some similar turnover issues and remained pretty TO prone as a pro, but was a solid useful guy. KO was also ultra efficient as a college scorer though whereas Wolf is a better rebounder than those two but is a pretty poorly efficient scorer, much much worse than KO was.

So maybe he can develop these areas just seems like there are some big areas that need a lot of development.

I question his motor more than I’d like and that’s part of his high TO issue, Amari Williams is a really great passer out of the high post like the bigs you mentioned that excel with Brad. He also can dribble and run the break for a big, good shot blocker, and decent at least in college guarding out to the perimeter. He’s also got legit big man size. If he could get a consistent mean streak (and Joe could either bring it out of him or quickly dump him if it’s just not there).