celticfan42487 wrote:We really need to trade Hayward. After next year he'll be unrestricted and he'll know he'll only has 2 maybe 3 years left in him and coming off his max contract . That's a Ray Allen situation if I've ever seen one and he'll just sign with a contender to try and win a ring, whomever is the Clippers of that season that he can fill in as a 6th man occasional starter.
We need to trade him even if it's one of those traditional cap dump and future first deals we need to recoup on him so at least we can maybe use those in the future to get a piece next to this core that will last. Ainge has to look at every deal as getting ready to convince Tatum to sign his max AFTER RFA, when we're in real danger of losing him. And nothing else or we'll be in a horrible spot in a few years.
Right now of potential teams that are DESPERATE to turn things around and may actually be willing to overpay for an expiring Hayward are:
Houston
Milwake
76ers
I don't see that list increasing. The Clippers even if they lose tomorrow have endless amount of talent, if anything they need know your role 3 and D guys. They won't use Hayward's ballhandling with Sweet Lou, PG13, and Kawhi which is a lot of his value beyond a 3 and D guy. Lakers probably would be interested regardless but they are winning it with scrap heaps of free agency, I'm sure they'll upgrade their bench next year as the #1 spot for vets to goto for nothing.
Of those 3 teams that should be desperate for a player like Hayward... you're going to **** kill me but it seems like MIL has nothing (other than a Lopez and Bledsoe trade but they wouldn't do that) and HOU has nothing to offer (Covington and Gordon). This seems to be the best option:
Hayward for Tobias Harris and ideally like an unconditional first 3 years from now. This is a backend kind of Nets rebuild built in with a guy who doesn't exactly fit our team as he's a PF like Tatum but he did put up on a team that doesn't really fit: 19.6 ppg 7 rpg 3.2 aspg. Similar stats to Hayward, signed long term, 28 years old.
That seems to be our best option for a Hayward trade. Now can the Celtics afford 4 max contracts with a core of Kemba, Brown, Tatum, Harris? I'm not sure. But Tobias WILL be around for his prime for the next 5 years and knowing us he'd split time at Center as well as PF and we'd get bigger with Tatum at SF. That keeps our switchability going.
That trade is 100% a bet against Embiid's body surviving that long or skill developing. And 100% against Simmond developing a jump shot. It also leaves that juicy pick on the table for a final move, a like Kemba and 76ers pick for another star to par with Tatum, Brown, Harris to put us over the top and win a title.
No other trade with the desperate win now teams are as interesting.
MIL: It'd be 2/3 of Bledsoe, Lopez, and Hill for Hayward. I don't even think MIL would do anything but a Bledsoe and Hill and that kills us. I'd rather have the capspace as Lopez and George Hill probably don't have any more years left in their bodies than Hayward does.
HOU: Eric Gordon and Robert Covington for Hayward. My first thought is that would be a steal for the Celtics as Covington just fits in perfectly on any team and Gordon is good.
Then I realized Eric Gordon is on a long contract and: 6'4", 31 years old, 14.4 ppg 37% fg and 32% from 3...again I'd rather have empty cap space than have him on our team and lose Hayward in unrestricted free agency.
I think I'd rather have a year of Hayward than Harris long term, though. I get that the pick is the sweetener, but I don't see it being offered without heavy protection. If it were unprotected...I mean...maybe. Then it's a straight health bet, and you hope the injury risks go down. Or you end up with yet another middling pick in the teens/twenties.
Incidentally, would Philly do this for cap relief (not signing Hayward after the year) or in the hope they can sign him to a more reasonable deal and he can approximate Harris for them? I am assuming the latter (and he fits with Simmons better) but they have no guarantee on what he'll do, so it would impact on the price.
Our window might very well be now. I'm not saying 'future be damned', but I'm uninterested in future draft picks except for their currency right at this moment. We have a stack of kids already.
PS. Don't mean to sound too negative. I get that Harris represents an uptick in health and age, kinda fits our team maybe, and that if we trade Gordon it will be for someone flawed/bad salary, etc. I'd just keep Gordon unless there's more out there than I think, though. Maybe talk to him about being a permanent six man.
