RealGM

Thank Chris Forsberg for clarifying for all the doubters and haters about Olynyk's rookie season:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4710802/kelly-olynyk-isnt-dirk-nowitzki-but

WALTHAM, Mass. -- Let's play everyone's favorite game: Whose Stat Line is it Anyway?

Player A: 8.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 20.4 mpg, 40.5 FG%, 20.6 3PT%, 12.8 PER

Player B: 6.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 18.1 mpg, 42.3 FG%, 30.8 3PT%, 12.3 PER

Hint: Both are rookie stat lines, 15 years apart. You have 30 seconds, good luck.

Player A is Dirk Nowitzki's rookie line in 47 games for the Dallas Mavericks during the 1998-99 campaign. Player B is Kelly Olynyk's stat line through 41 games this season for the Boston Celtics.

Now, let's be explicitly clear here: We are NOT suggesting that Olynyk is going to be an 11-time All-Star or league and Finals MVP who spends his entire career in one jersey. But consider this exercise a friendly reminder that it takes a little time for every rookie to find his place in the NBA.

In my opinion, he looks better than Rondo and Bradley did during their rookie seasons. He's already a decent offensive player and an above average passer in the NBA, and his body is still not NBA ready. He won't win any awards on defense, for sure, but it doesn't take away from the fact that I think he's performed well during his rookie year thus far. He certainly doesn't deserve all the trash talk he's been getting on this forum lately.

KO has had an excellent rookie year and hopefully he can make bigger strides next year. Needs to get a little stronger. Has a lot of work to do going forward but a great prospect. I think he has a lot of upside but no Dirk. Dirk is a once in a lifetime player.

He's a lot older than Bradley and Rondo were in their respective rookie campaigns and unlike those guys he's shown some pretty glaring physical weaknesses. The skills are there for him to be a useful role player but to compare him to Dirk is just silly.

Due to his lack of athleticism I think you're looking at what is close to a finished product. He can polish his game up a TON and perhaps get stronger/tougher but there isn't a star waiting to be born in Olynyk. If he can turn himself into a solid 3rd or 4th big on a contender it'd be a victory for him based on his essentially atrocious NBA athleticism.

Dirk entered the league 2 years younger than Kelly did. (20 vs. 22) But the difference in experience is actually greater than that. Dirk took up basketball in his mid-teens, while Kelly is a coach's son who presumably has played hoops since earliest days.

It doesnt matter how old KO is humble. A rookie is still a rookie in this league. In no way shape or form is he a finished project right now. To believe that is pure ignorance.

humblebum wrote:He's a lot older than Bradley and Rondo were in their respective rookie campaigns and unlike those guys he's shown some pretty glaring physical weaknesses. The skills are there for him to be a useful role player but to compare him to Dirk is just silly.

Due to his lack of athleticism I think you're looking at what is close to a finished product. He can polish his game up a TON and perhaps get stronger/tougher but there isn't a star waiting to be born in Olynyk. If he can turn himself into a solid 3rd or 4th big on a contender it'd be a victory for him based on his essentially atrocious NBA athleticism.

He's far from a finished product. If he keeps getting 20+ minutes per gsme the next three seasons, he's going to be a real nice player - far more "athletic" than Brad Miller, for instance - a player who wasn't athletic enough and far too old to make the league as a "finished product" out of Purdue...except, shen he continued to develop and became an All Star.

The kid's a rookie, plain and simple. That factor supercedes all other variables in the evaluation process right now.

I look at a game like his last & feel in 3/4 years that's what we'll consistently get. Somewhere along the lines of:

20-25 minutes
50-55% from the field
Around 12-14 ppg
5-8 rebounds
3-4 assists

His real stat line from the sac game: 11 pts, 3-5 from the field, 9 rebounds, 5 assists in 26 minutes.

I loved his hustle last game. He wasn't talked about a lot because of Sullingers huge game, but Olynyk was key.

In 3/4 years there will be no issue with his shot. He'll be use to shooting from long range, etc....something he didn't have to do in college (rarely had to shoot outside of 15 ft). We need him to put in work on the defensive end & in his rebounding. If he gets that down early look out. He'll be a solid pro going forward.

He showed a lot of improvement in college. That's a good sign, I think, more than a bad one. ("Oh noes -- he wasn't much in college except for one season!")

He's just barely getting comfortable looking at the rim. Anybody who says he is a finished product either stupid or has an agenda.

He moves well for a seven footer, has a good motor, and is very skilled. All he really needs to do is bulk up and learn where his shots are and he'll be a nice piece.

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Prediction:

He won't even be on this team when it finally returns to playoff/contender status.

BfB wrote:

humblebum wrote:He's a lot older than Bradley and Rondo were in their respective rookie campaigns and unlike those guys he's shown some pretty glaring physical weaknesses. The skills are there for him to be a useful role player but to compare him to Dirk is just silly.

Due to his lack of athleticism I think you're looking at what is close to a finished product. He can polish his game up a TON and perhaps get stronger/tougher but there isn't a star waiting to be born in Olynyk. If he can turn himself into a solid 3rd or 4th big on a contender it'd be a victory for him based on his essentially atrocious NBA athleticism.

He's far from a finished product. If he keeps getting 20+ minutes per gsme the next three seasons, he's going to be a real nice player - far more "athletic" than Brad Miller, for instance - a player who wasn't athletic enough and far too old to make the league as a "finished product" out of Purdue...except, shen he continued to develop and became an All Star.

The kid's a rookie, plain and simple. That factor supercedes all other variables in the evaluation process right now.

Eh, you're mistaking what I'm saying. My point is that his style of play and his basic game IS WHAT IT IS. He's not going to develop whole new aspects of his game. He can refine his game, grow his confidence and learn to pick his spots better, which would constitute improvement, but transformative changes to his game? Not gonna happen.

He doesn't have a very high ceiling due to his physical limitations and his age plays into that as well. You take a 19-20 year old seven footer and he might have serious physical maturation occurring for a couple more years. That's not the case with Kelly being that he's older.

He doesn't have much more room for growth. He's in the "honing" of skills phase of his development. Now if you think he's going to develop a nasty streak like Brad Miller had then I have a bridge to sell you.

I suspect KO will see more burn after trading deadline. We've seen this before with Gomes, Powe, Baby, Bradley. Rookies that shine in summer then disappear for 1/2 a season. Joe Johnson had a few 20 pt games for Cs, fell out of rotation and got traded. He then blossomed into a star. KO has a few big games already and is getting more consistent off the bench.

7 footers who can score, hustle for rebounds and pass like a PG always have a place in this league. He could develop into an elite sixth man who can put a lot of offensive pressure off the bench. I think he is a fixture for our future, but he needs to get stronger and learn to defend better at NBA level. I think he is no worse or less talented than a young than Dirk on defensive end even if he can't be expected to be Dirk on offense. I think he can become passable on defense with time.

Setshot33 wrote:Prediction:

He won't even be on this team when it finally returns to playoff/contender status.

What does that have to do with how good of a player he is/will be or how good his rookie season has been?

One major thing I always notice with KO is confidence. When his game is rolling and his shot is falling he looks assertive and is a very dangerous offensive player. When things aren't going his way he hesitates and gets passive, making him look soft on both ends of the floor. This is certainly something that can improve with experience and PT, especially with a guy like Rondo getting him the ball in his spots and hitting him as he runs the floor (which he does very well).

I've been a bit disappointed with him defensively, but mainly from a mental standpoint (positioning and rotations). KO is a fairly intelligent guy so I'd hope this can improve. Rebounding wise, which many had concerns about, he's been fine. Not spectacular, but solid, which are what his college stats indicated he would be. His shot hasn't been falling at the rate I expected it to, but I think a lot of that comes back to the confidence issue. The thing that has impressed me the most is his passing ability.

I don't ever think he will be a stud, but I think he can develop into a really useful big, which is what a lot of us expected coming into this year.

GreenMachine wrote:

Setshot33 wrote:Prediction:

He won't even be on this team when it finally returns to playoff/contender status.

What does that have to do with how good of a player he is/will be or how good his rookie season has been?

Everything.

This guy is nothing more than a glorified Eric Fernsten.

He displays no drive nor aggressiveness to succeed at this level. He looks to have thoroughly studied at the Jeff Green Academy of Basketball who's motto seems to be: Show up to play once every three weeks...except, he doesn't even show up that often.

Now if you're afraid to shoot, that's one thing but to hardly ever show up when it comes to rebounding and defense?

Look, I think Danny is a good GM who drafts well but he drafted a big fat bust in Olynyk.

It happens.

Setshot33 wrote:

GreenMachine wrote:

Setshot33 wrote:Prediction:

He won't even be on this team when it finally returns to playoff/contender status.

What does that have to do with how good of a player he is/will be or how good his rookie season has been?

Everything.

This guy is nothing more than a glorified Eric Fernsten.

He displays no drive nor aggressiveness to succeed at this level. He looks to have thoroughly studied at the Jeff Green Academy of Basketball who's motto seems to be: Show up to play once every three weeks...except, he doesn't even show up that often.

Now if you're afraid to shoot, that's one thing but to hardly ever show up when it comes to rebounding and defense?

Look, I think Danny is a good GM who drafts well but he drafted a big fat bust in Olynyk.

It happens.

Well, that's not what you said. He could turn into an All Star and still not be here next time we are relevant. What you are now saying is you think he is a bust... that is different... and it seems the vast majority of the posters in this thread disagree with you. I personally know that to call any big man a bust half way into their rookie season is foolish.

GreenMachine wrote:

Setshot33 wrote:

GreenMachine wrote:
What does that have to do with how good of a player he is/will be or how good his rookie season has been?

Everything.

This guy is nothing more than a glorified Eric Fernsten.

He displays no drive nor aggressiveness to succeed at this level. He looks to have thoroughly studied at the Jeff Green Academy of Basketball who's motto seems to be: Show up to play once every three weeks...except, he doesn't even show up that often.

Now if you're afraid to shoot, that's one thing but to hardly ever show up when it comes to rebounding and defense?

Look, I think Danny is a good GM who drafts well but he drafted a big fat bust in Olynyk.

It happens.

Well, that's not what you said. He could turn into an All Star and still not be here next time we are relevant. What you are now saying is you think he is a bust... that is different... and it seems the vast majority of the posters in this thread disagree with you. I personally know that to call any big man a bust half way into their rookie season is foolish.

You have me confused with another poster. I have never said that Olynyk would ever be an all star player.

As far as it being too early to tell, I disagree.

Last year, when Sully was put on the floor, it didn't take long to figure out that he fit in this league. Just his effort on the glass alone told us that. You don't get that with Olynyk.

Ok, he makes a nice pass once in awhile, when he's not standing in a corner by himself. Once in awhile he grabs a rebound. But most of the time, he doesn't do much of anything to impact a game.

Heck, look at Chris Johnson, a D-leaguer. He showed more aggressiveness and want to in one game, than KO has all season here. New teammates,coaches, surroundings, didn't matter. He went out to prove he belonged and earned himself a contract.

Olynyk? He acts too scared to try and he's been here over half a season.

For all of the posters who would like to throw Olynyk into the "not going to make it big" category, I have two names from past Celtics teams that should be a warning "Johnson" and "Billups".

Olynyk recently made the rookie squad in the all star game.

Was selected by his rookie peers as one of the top 1-3 players coming into the league this year.

When Canada's coach was asked if he was looking forward to getting Wiggins to play for team Canada once his freshman year is over, referenced what Olynyk could've brought to the team instead.

Prior to his injury earlier this year, he was the starter with Sully in the front court.

Now I am not saying he will be Dirk, but Olynyk has a unique skill set and I can see a lot of room for growth.

The guy is a 7 footer. Give him some time to figure things out...

Setshot33 wrote:

GreenMachine wrote:

Setshot33 wrote:Everything.

This guy is nothing more than a glorified Eric Fernsten.

He displays no drive nor aggressiveness to succeed at this level. He looks to have thoroughly studied at the Jeff Green Academy of Basketball who's motto seems to be: Show up to play once every three weeks...except, he doesn't even show up that often.

Now if you're afraid to shoot, that's one thing but to hardly ever show up when it comes to rebounding and defense?

Look, I think Danny is a good GM who drafts well but he drafted a big fat bust in Olynyk.

It happens.

Well, that's not what you said. He could turn into an All Star and still not be here next time we are relevant. What you are now saying is you think he is a bust... that is different... and it seems the vast majority of the posters in this thread disagree with you. I personally know that to call any big man a bust half way into their rookie season is foolish.

You have me confused with another poster. I have never said that Olynyk would ever be an all star player.

As far as it being too early to tell, I disagree.

Last year, when Sully was put on the floor, it didn't take long to figure out that he fit in this league. Just his effort on the glass alone told us that. You don't get that with Olynyk.

Ok, he makes a nice pass once in awhile, when he's not standing in a corner by himself. Once in awhile he grabs a rebound. But most of the time, he doesn't do much of anything to impact a game.

Heck, look at Chris Johnson, a D-leaguer. He showed more aggressiveness and want to in one game, than KO has all season here. New teammates,coaches, surroundings, didn't matter. He went out to prove he belonged and earned himself a contract.

Olynyk? He acts too scared to try and he's been here over half a season.

Ok. Fair enough. Agree to disagree. I personally don't think you can judge him (anyone) this soon. Some players just take longer. Especially skinny week big men.

And I wasn't inferring you thought KO would be an All Star... you think he will be gone before the Celtics are relevant again... and I think he could boom OR bust and STILL be gone... basically I am saying how good he is doesn't necessarily equate with if he is still here...

Fencer reregistered wrote:Dirk entered the league 2 years younger than Kelly did. (20 vs. 22) But the difference in experience is actually greater than that. Dirk took up basketball in his mid-teens, while Kelly is a coach's son who presumably has played hoops since earliest days.

No Dirk started playing PRO ball at 16. He played 4 years of pro ball in Germany including the national team, he before coming to the US. He was prodigy. KO was a 6'3" pg in Kamloops at 16.

When you look at Dirk's rookie year it was the strike shortened season and had a couple of good games early then disappeared until April when he had a couple of more big games. DAL was the equivalent of a 30 win team that year.

Not trying to say that KO is going to be one of the 25 or 30 greatest players of all time. But he is actually doing pretty well overall especially when you see how Stevens handles his mins and role. For whatever reason his mins and role are really inconsistent, but not based on anything. He seems to settle into a roll of about 15-16 mpg then coach will pull the chain for a game or two and then let him go for 25-30 mpg and then back to the 15-16 mpg role.