RealGM

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:41 pm**

Realizing this is a futile exercise I just couldn't help myself. Using Tankathon's Draft simulator I played out 125 results and below was the outcome.

The #2 pick came up the most frequent. The #6 the least frequent.

Two questions;

1) If C's end up with the #1 or #2 pick do they draft Simmons/Ingram and hold on to them or trade the pick for someone like Demarcus Cousins, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, etc.?

2) If we end up with 3, 4, or 5 (no way C's end up with #6, right) to me it's a no-brainer, trade the pick, but will it be enough to get players like the ones mentioned above?

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:09 pm**

Trade the pick. Doesn't matter where it is.

If it's #1 or #2, package it with the Mavs pick and a player to get an All-Star, then use the remaining Nets picks as a recruiting pitch during FA meetings (i.e. sign with us, and we can use those remaining Nets picks to trade for another All-Star).

If it's #3 or lower, then package it with a player and another one of the Nets picks for an All-Star, and then pray to the basketball gods that Durant happens to like the guy we just traded for.

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:01 pm**

I doubt the simulation is well done. With the third best odds they have a 46.9% chance of top-3 and 15.6% at the #1. Most likely is #5.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Not a fan of the frontcourt players at the top of the draft and unless they can get Simmons or Ingram hopefully they're able to package the top pick (if its between 3-6) for a top-15 player.

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:25 pm**

We have a 46.9% chance of selecting in the top 3 (assuming we hold third).
The Lakers have a 44.2% chance of falling out of the top 3 and thus losing their pick.

There is only a 29.63% chance of both of those things failing to happen.

And yet, I somehow know, with absolute certainty, that that 29.63% chance will occur.

I'm not a draft-conspiracy-theorist. And I don't really believe in karma, or malevolent cosmic intervention, or any of the other things I joke about.

And, yet, I just know.

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:29 pm**

I conceded that the draft was rigged after the Bulls somehow ended up with Chicago's own Derrick Rose when finishing with the 9th worst record.

Posted: **Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:02 pm**

I make this post every now and then. It has never yet gotten any kind of response. I'll keep making it.

SMTBSI wrote:The NBA draft lottery is audited by Ernst & Young [1], a firm with about five and a half times the revenue of all 30 NBA teams combined. The NBA is not one of their larger clients*.

It is insanity to suggest that E&Y would risk tarnishing their global reputation, and relationship with all their other clients, by colluding to rig the lottery.

*Big 4 Accounting Firm Profile: Ernst & Young

Client Revenue (billions, 2015):
Walmart: 482.1 [2]
BP: 225.98 [3]
AT&T: 146.8 [4]
Amazon.com: 107.0 [5]
Google: 74.5 [6]
ConocoPhilips: 55.5 [7]
Lockheed Martin: 46.1 [8]
Coca-Cola: 44.3 [9]
United Airlines: 37.9 [10]
Time Warner: 22.8 [11]
.....
NBA: 5.2 [12]

Now, that being said, nobodies perfect.

Chrus Bernucca of Sheridan Hoops wrote:Ernst & Young improperly counts Most Improved Player voting

There was more than a little head-scratching when the Most Improved Player voting was released Friday. In addition to Ryan Anderson undeservedly winning the award, a scan of the balloting showed a single first-place vote going to Andrew Bogut.

Bogut played just 12 games this season, driven to the sidelines by a pair of injuries. He also was dealt from Milwaukee to Golden State at the trading deadline. In addition, all of his numbers – except his formerly horrific free-throw shooting – were down from last season.

The idea that Bogut could get a first-place vote was chalked up to a possible homer voter or a practical joke. But it seems no one considered that Ernst & Young, the accounting firm used by the NBA for official tabulation of many of the league’s mathematical needs, could have botched the count.

But that’s exactly what Ernst & Young did. The NBA sent a release Sunday admitting the error and stating that the vote that went to Bogut should have been given to Andrew Bynum.

Posted: **Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:56 pm**

SMTBSI wrote:I make this post every now and then. It has never yet gotten any kind of response. I'll keep making it.

SMTBSI wrote:The NBA draft lottery is audited by Ernst & Young [1], a firm with about five and a half times the revenue of all 30 NBA teams combined. The NBA is not one of their larger clients*.

It is insanity to suggest that E&Y would risk tarnishing their global reputation, and relationship with all their other clients, by colluding to rig the lottery.

*Big 4 Accounting Firm Profile: Ernst & Young

Client Revenue (billions, 2015):
Walmart: 482.1 [2]
BP: 225.98 [3]
AT&T: 146.8 [4]
Amazon.com: 107.0 [5]
Google: 74.5 [6]
ConocoPhilips: 55.5 [7]
Lockheed Martin: 46.1 [8]
Coca-Cola: 44.3 [9]
United Airlines: 37.9 [10]
Time Warner: 22.8 [11]
.....
NBA: 5.2 [12]

Now, that being said, nobodies perfect.

Chrus Bernucca of Sheridan Hoops wrote:Ernst & Young improperly counts Most Improved Player voting

There was more than a little head-scratching when the Most Improved Player voting was released Friday. In addition to Ryan Anderson undeservedly winning the award, a scan of the balloting showed a single first-place vote going to Andrew Bogut.

Bogut played just 12 games this season, driven to the sidelines by a pair of injuries. He also was dealt from Milwaukee to Golden State at the trading deadline. In addition, all of his numbers – except his formerly horrific free-throw shooting – were down from last season.

The idea that Bogut could get a first-place vote was chalked up to a possible homer voter or a practical joke. But it seems no one considered that Ernst & Young, the accounting firm used by the NBA for official tabulation of many of the league’s mathematical needs, could have botched the count.

But that’s exactly what Ernst & Young did. The NBA sent a release Sunday admitting the error and stating that the vote that went to Bogut should have been given to Andrew Bynum.

Yeah. I don't think the Lottery is rigged. Of course for each winner there's always like some kind of blatant reasoning for it. But really -- It's almost like you can create any kind of theory for each time if tried hard enough.

The place is a dirty world. But I just find it very hard to believe that this actually happens without it being out by now.

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