RealGM

I recently finished putting together my stats for the past NBA season, figured I'd share results for C's players, popular offseason targets, and some rookies.

These stats are mostly centered around contextual adjustments, composite scores, and contrast between scores. Rankings are relative to 366 players who played at least 400 minutes for a single team this season.

C's
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1.) IT

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 5th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 25th
Displayed overall scoring ability: t-1st
Displayed passing ability: 26th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 9th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 66nd
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 23rd
Demonstrated PG ability: 12th
Displayed offensive ability: 25th
Measured intangibles: 115th
Value role player suitability: 315th
Underutilization: 176th
Overall offensive rating: 10th
Overall defensive rating: 317th
Overall score: 86.02 (18th)

2.) Jae

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 29th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 149th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 57th
Displayed passing ability: 154th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 65th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 27th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 108th
Demonstrated PG ability: 50th
Displayed offensive ability: 40th
Measured intangibles: 5th
Value role player suitability: 172nd
Underutilization: 165th
Overall offensive rating: 22nd
Overall defensive rating: 36th
Overall score: 79.93 (36th)

3.) Al

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 119th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 116th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 119th
Displayed passing ability: 44th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 30th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 117th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 28th
Demonstrated PG ability: 40th
Displayed offensive ability: 51st
Measured intangibles: 160th
Value role player suitability: 317th
Underutilization: 192nd
Overall offensive rating: 45th
Overall defensive rating: 101st
Overall score: 74.73 (53rd)

3.) Amir

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 202nd
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 119th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 209th
Displayed passing ability: 142nd
Displayed ballhandling ability: 153rd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 224th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 133rd
Demonstrated PG ability: 91st
Displayed offensive ability: 178th
Measured intangibles: 9th
Value role player suitability: 98th
Underutilization: 20th
Overall offensive rating: 107th
Overall defensive rating: 76th
Overall score: 69.21 (85th)

4.) AB

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 87th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 125th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 140th
Displayed passing ability: 142nd
Displayed ballhandling ability: 172nd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 176th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 183rd
Demonstrated PG ability: 142nd
Displayed offensive ability: 133rd
Measured intangibles: 178th
Value role player suitability: 255th
Underutilization: 316th
Overall offensive rating: 139th
Overall defensive rating: 96th
Overall score: 63.45 (130th)

5.) Marcus

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 204th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 281st
Displayed overall scoring ability: 238th
Displayed passing ability: 42nd
Displayed ballhandling ability: 105th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 282nd
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 49th
Demonstrated PG ability: 109th
Displayed offensive ability: 198th
Measured intangibles: 68th
Value role player suitability: 77th
Underutilization: 277th
Overall offensive rating: 196th
Overall defensive rating: 9th
Overall score: 59.74 (159th)

6.) KO

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 104th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 129th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 102nd
Displayed passing ability: 133rd
Displayed ballhandling ability: 146th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 212th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 139th
Demonstrated PG ability: 206th
Displayed offensive ability: 90th
Measured intangibles: 199th
Value role player suitability: 238th
Underutilization: 58th
Overall offensive rating: 135th
Overall defensive rating: 248th
Overall score: 59.26 (161st)

7.) Zeller

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: n/a
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 335th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 352nd
Displayed passing ability: 299th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 291st
Adjusted turnover percentage: 230th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 257th
Demonstrated PG ability: 284th
Displayed offensive ability: 351st
Measured intangibles: 278th
Value role player suitability: 144th
Underutilization: 111th
Overall offensive rating: 330th
Overall defensive rating: 337th
Overall score: 37.3 (297th)

8.) Jaylen

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 187th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 204th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 202nd
Displayed passing ability: 280th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 322nd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 285th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 302nd
Demonstrated PG ability: 339th
Displayed offensive ability: 267th
Measured intangibles: 269th
Value role player suitability: 114th
Underutilization: 236th
Overall offensive rating: 302nd
Overall defensive rating: 269th
Overall score: 36.12 (307th)

9.) Jerebko

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 209th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 303rd
Displayed overall scoring ability: 202nd (ETA - 343 - typo)
Displayed passing ability: 343rd (ETA - 259 - typo)
Displayed ballhandling ability: 283rd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 264th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 239th
Demonstrated PG ability: 220th
Displayed offensive ability: 319th
Measured intangibles: 119th
Value role player suitability: 12th
Underutilization: 207th
Overall offensive rating: 268th
Overall defensive rating: 310th
Overall score: 36.03 (308th)

10.) Rozzy

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 265th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 347th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 333rd
Displayed passing ability: 147th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 133rd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 197th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 112th
Demonstrated PG ability: 267th
Displayed offensive ability: 269th
Measured intangibles: 311th
Value role player suitability: 166th
Underutilization: 248th
Overall offensive rating: 319th
Overall defensive rating: 77th
Overall score: 35.43 (314th)

11.) GG

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 255th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 350th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 312th
Displayed passing ability: 325th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 336th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 267th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 319th
Demonstrated PG ability: 287th
Displayed offensive ability: 345th
Measured intangibles: 328th
Value role player suitability: 149th
Underutilization: 266th
Overall offensive rating: 338th
Overall defensive rating: 349th
Overall score: 29.32 (339th)

top 10 league-wide
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1.) Jimmy Butler

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 71st
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 11th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 11th
Displayed passing ability: 21st
Displayed ballhandling ability: 1st
Adjusted turnover percentage: 7th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 9th
Demonstrated PG ability: 11th
Displayed offensive ability: 3rd
Measured intangibles: 12th
Overall offensive rating: 1st
Overall defensive rating: 2nd
Overall score: 100

2.) Bron

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 56th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 5th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 24th
Displayed passing ability: 7th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 24th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 140th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 11th
Demonstrated PG ability: 6th
Displayed offensive ability: 9th
Measured intangibles: 33rd
Overall offensive rating: 8th
Overall defensive rating: 4th
Overall score: 98.33

3.) Anthony Davis

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 174th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 1st
Displayed overall scoring ability: 29th
Displayed passing ability: 146th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 44th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 23rd
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 163rd
Demonstrated PG ability: 60th
Displayed offensive ability: 24th
Measured intangibles: 49th
Overall offensive rating: 28th
Overall defensive rating: 1st
Overall score: 98

4.) Giannis

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 165th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 10th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 30th
Displayed passing ability: 29th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 11th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 59th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 33rd
Demonstrated PG ability: 26th
Displayed offensive ability: 10th
Measured intangibles: 54th
Overall offensive rating: 21st
Overall defensive rating: 3rd
Overall score: 94.21

5.) CP3

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 25th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 66th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 25th
Displayed passing ability: 6th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 2nd
Adjusted turnover percentage: 45th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 1st
Demonstrated PG ability: 4th
Displayed offensive ability: 8th
Measured intangibles: 6th
Overall offensive rating: 7th
Overall defensive rating: 28th
Overall score: 93.63

6.) Durant

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 38th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 12th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 7th
Displayed passing ability: 54th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 6th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 15th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 37th
Demonstrated PG ability: 21st
Displayed offensive ability: 2nd
Measured intangibles: 87th
Overall offensive rating: 5th
Overall defensive rating: 12th
Overall score: 93.38

7.) Steph Curry

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 2nd
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 71st
Displayed overall scoring ability: 15th
Displayed passing ability: 18th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 13th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 92nd
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 19th
Demonstrated PG ability: 9th
Displayed offensive ability: 20th
Measured intangibles: 24th
Overall offensive rating: 4th
Overall defensive rating: 46th
Overall score: 92.94

8.) Westbrook

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 16th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 7th
Displayed overall scoring ability: t-1st
Displayed passing ability: 1st
Displayed ballhandling ability: 7th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 106th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 5th
Demonstrated PG ability: 1st
Displayed offensive ability: 1st
Measured intangibles: 78th
Overall offensive rating: 14th
Overall defensive rating: 35th
Overall score: 92.55

9.) Kawhi

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 21st
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 9th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 3rd
Displayed passing ability: 67th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 19th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 19th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 61st
Demonstrated PG ability: 23rd
Displayed offensive ability: 6th
Measured intangibles: 143rd
Overall offensive rating: 2nd
Overall defensive rating: 23rd
Overall score: 92.48

10.) Harden

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 6th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 52nd
Displayed overall scoring ability: 6th
Displayed passing ability: 3rd
Displayed ballhandling ability: 29th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 175th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 7th
Demonstrated PG ability: 2nd
Displayed offensive ability: 4th
Measured intangibles: 100th
Overall offensive rating: 3rd
Overall defensive rating: 47th
Overall score: 92.44



common names
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12.) Hayward

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 30th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 38th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 13th
Displayed passing ability: 70th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 21st
Adjusted turnover percentage: 26th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 60th
Demonstrated PG ability: 25th
Displayed offensive ability: 13th
Measured intangibles: 21st
Overall offensive rating: 11th
Overall defensive rating: 16th
Overall score: 90.64 (12th)

19.) PG3

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 12th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 20th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 8th
Displayed passing ability: 74th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 68th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 127th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 98th
Demonstrated PG ability: 37th
Displayed offensive ability: 21st
Measured intangibles: 59th
Overall offensive rating: 25th
Overall defensive rating: 31st
Overall score: 85.72 (19th)

23.) Blake

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 184th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 33rd
Displayed overall scoring ability: 45th
Displayed passing ability: 47th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 10th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 36th
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 39th
Demonstrated PG ability: 25th
Displayed offensive ability: 18th
Measured intangibles: 32nd
Overall offensive rating: 19th
Overall defensive rating: 59th
Overall score: 83.76 (23rd)

24.) Millsap

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 129th
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 72nd
Displayed overall scoring ability: 47th
Displayed passing ability: 65th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 28th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 51st
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 67th
Demonstrated PG ability: 39th
Displayed offensive ability: 23rd
Measured intangibles: 42nd
Overall offensive rating: 43rd
Overall defensive rating: 14th
Overall score: 83.65 (24th)

70.) Carmelo

Displayed 3 point shooting ability: 41st
Displayed 2 point shooting ability: 30th
Displayed overall scoring ability: 26th
Displayed passing ability: 86th
Displayed ballhandling ability: 36th
Adjusted turnover percentage: 33rd
Adjusted A/TO ratio: 79th
Demonstrated PG ability: 48th
Displayed offensive ability: 15th
Measured intangibles: 219th
Overall offensive rating: 40th
Overall defensive rating: 268th
Overall score: 71.23 (70th)

under 21 rankings
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Turner, Myles (44)
Booker, Devin (102)
Russell, D'Angelo (149)
Labissiere, Skal (193)
Murray, Jamal (210)
Jones, Tyus (240)
Jones, Derrick (250)
Zubac, Ivica (252)
Chriss, Marquese (268)
Ingram, Brandon (274)
Johnson, Stanley (280)
Looney, Kevon (281)
Winslow, Justise (291)
Sabonis, Domantas (299)
Mudiay, Emmanuel (305)
Brown, Jaylen (307)
Bender, Dragan (357)
Vaughn, Rashad (359)
Baldwin, Wade (366)

Awesome stats but not understanding how you get these numbers

KGboss wrote:Awesome stats but not understanding how you get these numbers

It's slightly complicated, but the short off it was in the OP - "These stats are mostly centered around contextual adjustments, composite scores, and contrast between scores." I've been putting them together for like 10 years now, end of each season, and I have been putting them together in the current manner for several years now. So methodology has been tweaked based on experimentation.

The 'displayed ability' stats are basically proprietary. The 2/3 point shooting stats are adjusted according to a statistical estimation of the defensive attention a player likely received. This is calculated based on how often a player shot the ball, how a player's team's offense performed in respects relevant to producing open looks, how efficiently a player scored relative to his teammates, etc. i.e. this season Jae was one of our most efficient scorers and he attempted six 3s per 36, so it is assumed that a number of his 3s were likely contested or what not (this shows an arguable fault with my methodology, but worst case players are rewarded for efficiency). Of course, Jae was also playing on a team that hit a lot of threes, racked up a lot of assists, and shot a respectable percentage inside the arc; if he had played on the Lakers with the same stats and context he would have received an additional, relatively large boost. 'displayed scoring ability' is a composite score, 25% 3pt ability, 25% 2pt ability, 25% ability to get to the FT line, 25% points per minute x points per FGA squared.

Assist stats are to a lesser extent adjusted based on team stats and an assumption is made that for each assist a player is rewarded, the player is responsible for X many hockey assists. TO stats are adjusted based on an estimation of the defensive attention a player likely was subject to (formulated based on the above stats minus 3 pt shooting ability). There are adjustments here and there for minutes played.

Overall offensive score is something like 50% the proprietary stats, 25% an adjusted ORTG, 25% slightly adjusted offensive plus/minus, plus a slight boost for minutes per game and to a lesser extent games played. Defensive is 25% slightly adjusted plus/minus, 25% an adjusted DRTG, 25% an adjusted counterpart PER, 25% slightly adjusted steal/block/foul stats, with some minutes played adjustments. Total score is a weighted combination of offensive/defensive score depending on a player's position, with offense on average counting slightly more than defense. But a player's rank according to their PER also accounts for 20% of the final score (this makes the results less flukey), and players who averaged more than 36 minutes per game are given a slight boost proportional how many additional minutes they played per game.

Then, for example, the 'measured intangibles' stat is determined by comparing overall rank, to PER rank, =/- rank, etc to try and estimate what percentage of the player's overall score resulted intangibles they displayed.

Thank you for the breakdown.

Who'd a thought Hayward was such a good defender?

darrendaye wrote:Who'd a thought Hayward was such a good defender?

I've been saying that for months and getting laughed at. Guy is massively underrated being stuck in Utah. If he were in a major market it would be a completely different story

great post and appreciate the effort and sharing but "measured Intangibles" cracked me up...

that said the rankings generally make pretty good sense.

I'd love to see your full list.

Avery isn't a very good defender on your list list and some other rankings i've seen. Is there a reason for the difference between Avery's defense rank and his defensive reputation?

claycarver wrote:I'd love to see your full list.

Avery isn't a very good defender on your list list and some other rankings i've seen. Is there a reason for the difference between Avery's defense rank and his defensive reputation?

This season he scored kind of near the bottom of the league in terms of defensive plus/minus (by virtue of having the second worst defensive plus/minus on our team), and this accounted for just less than 25% of his overall defensive score. This was likely partially because he played so many minutes alongside IT, partially because he was often assigned to the opposition's best player, partially because he often was subbed out for Marcus Smart - who is a really solid defender. So that's a bit flukey.

He also might be slightly overrated on the defensive end; at least, while his defensive rank is usually a little bit higher than it was this year, it is almost always lower than his reputation. Obviously, we do know he is a very capable man defender. Amongst players logging 400+ minutes this season, he did rank 19th in the counterpart PER category (sourced from 82games.com and adjusted) - another imperfect category but it might come closest to theoretically measuring man defense. And on occasion he is probably getting credit for guarding the guy IT was guarding.

Also, smaller players and guards often do not score as high defensively as fowards and centers, and outside of the top of the list, there tends to be more league-wide parity on defense than on offense (at least in my spreadsheet). So it doesn't necessarily take a large difference in defensive score to drop a bit in the rankings.

threrf23 wrote: there tends to be more league-wide parity on defense than on offense (at least in my spreadsheet).

That point fits well with an opinion that lots of folks hold, namely that offensive excellence or weakness are more important than what a guy -- at least a perimeter player -- does or doesn't do at the defensive end.

threrf23 wrote: I've been putting them together for like 10 years now,

How do you judge whether your figures are correct or not?

Fencer reregistered wrote:

threrf23 wrote: I've been putting them together for like 10 years now,

How do you judge whether your figures are correct or not?

Obviously, you can't and there are reasons why certain players will en up either underrated or overrated. But the results hold up to popular opinion and fan/media accounts in enough places to seem credible. And over the years there are cases where you can basically spot career curves, so in that sense it seems to do a good job of measuring the same things year by year. And I mean, maybe using ESPN's 'real plus minus' would be a much easier way of measuring everything? But, glancing over RPM, I def feel like my spreadsheet is overall more accurate (and more detailed).

And there are surprises here and there that check out (prob wouldn't be surprises if I followed the league more closely). As a good example, IT in his final year in Sac-town, ranked 5th overall in 'displayed scoring ability' (sandwiched in between Carmelo and Dirk), third in 'displayed offensive ability' (sandwiched between KD & Carmelo), and 9th overall offensively (sandwiched between Lillard & Carmelo); and this wasn't even that flukey because the year before he ranked 9th in the 'scoring ability' category (sandwiched in between Steph & CP3) and 12th in 'offensive ability' (sandwiched in between Deron & Marc Gasol). And I mean, he had a rep as a dynamic scorer, but he never had that kind of rep at the time, people assumed he scored so much in part just because he was a ballhog. I kind of assumed he wasn't as good as those rankings suggested - but...

If we are talking C's, don't know if these stats overrate him or if they are catching something, but Jae has been the biggest surprise over the past few seasons. 14-15: 77th offensively, 25th defensively, 65th overall. '15-16: 29th offensively, 50th defensively, and 40th overall. '16-17: 22nd offense, 36th defense, 36th overall. If this is legit - he is consistently "good" on the defensive end (likely due in part to consistent effort), and he is continually inching better and better offensively while the overall efficiency of his game (and/or consistency of his effort) leverages his abilities. On paper, he is 26 and a great breakout candidate over the next two seasons as long as he can stay healthy.

Last season, aside from Kawhi sweeping #1 offense, defense, and overall, I think the biggest thing that stuck out to me was Nikola Jokic ranking 22nd overall as a 20 y/o rookie (this year offensive metrics improved but defensive metrics took a hit). This season, top of my head, Myles Turner showed big improvement (#200 to #44), and Nikola Vucevic ranked 33rd defensively (he had never previously ranked top 100 defensively, and had not ranked top 200 his previous two seasons). Could be a fluke, but a quick Google search reveals this: http://www.nba.com/magic/es/news/orlando-magic-new-york-knicks-pregame-report-denton-20161222

Advanced stats seem to love Butler.

I really do feel he'd get a lot more appreciation/respect around the league if he played for a coach like Brad. Shame his prime years might go to waste playing for the Bulls.

threrf23 wrote:

Fencer reregistered wrote:

threrf23 wrote: I've been putting them together for like 10 years now,

How do you judge whether your figures are correct or not?

Obviously, you can't and there are reasons why certain players will en up either underrated or overrated. But the results hold up to popular opinion and fan/media accounts in enough places to seem credible.

Got it.

I was wondering whether, for example, you backtested to see whether the ratings of a team's players correlated well with anything in actual game outcomes. But if I understood you correctly, you're mainly testing against anecdotal/narrative ways of gauging player value.

Fencer reregistered wrote:Got it.

I was wondering whether, for example, you backtested to see whether the ratings of a team's players correlated well with anything in actual game outcomes. But if I understood you correctly, you're mainly testing against anecdotal/narrative ways of gauging player value.

But if I formed a back-test, wouldn't I have to form a second back-test to test the validity of the back-test? I mean I'm mainly too lazy to bother with a formal test, but the thing on top of that is, the (not completely plausible) goal is to measure a player's performance and/or displayed ability independent of his team and teammates. Even if I succeed in doing that, you cannot predict game outcomes without factoring chemistry, fit, coaching, etc.

I have considering measuring teams' "potential" based on player ratings, comparing to actual results, and using that as a statistical measure of coaching. But...

threrf23 wrote:

Fencer reregistered wrote:Got it.

I was wondering whether, for example, you backtested to see whether the ratings of a team's players correlated well with anything in actual game outcomes. But if I understood you correctly, you're mainly testing against anecdotal/narrative ways of gauging player value.

But if I formed a back-test, wouldn't I have to form a second back-test to test the validity of the back-test? I mean I'm mainly too lazy to bother with a formal test, but the thing on top of that is, the (not completely plausible) goal is to measure a player's performance and/or displayed ability independent of his team and teammates. Even if I succeed in doing that, you cannot predict game outcomes without factoring chemistry, fit, coaching, etc.

I have considering measuring teams' "potential" based on player ratings, comparing to actual results, and using that as a statistical measure of coaching. But...

I was tentatively assuming (incorrectly) that this was your personal attempt to come up with reliable versions of ORPM and DPRM, or just RPM.

In that case, there would be a score for each player, and one would hope that by comparing the sum of the scores for each team on the floor, one could retroactively "predict" what actually happened.

There are, of course, many difficulties in such a project, is why the various forms of RPM stats aren't more reliable than they are.

Zeller above Brown? Zeller was hot garbage, and Brown was our 3rd best player, behind Al, and Isaiah. Your stats are ****.