Elrod is Back wrote:In another thread, BfB, one of my all-time favorite posters, made an interesting comment:
“Elrod, I believe Jayson Tatum will eventually be a damn good player, but he is not remotely ready to impact a contending team's rotation at that level.
If and when Tatum shows he can hit from the perimeter and effectively make accurate, multiple defensive rotations then this will be a conversation.”
It was in the context of a discussion of Jae Crowder’s trade value, but the comment on Jayson Tatum struck me as especially interesting, and one worth discussing.
BfB contends Jayson is not “remotely ready” to even be a rotation player, a back-up, for the Cs in 2017-18. The reason: we are contenders and Brad will not dick around playing a rookie until the rookie establishes that he deserves to be on the floor offensively and defensively.
Fair enough. That makes sense.
But is that really an accurate assessment of Jayson Tatum at this stage of his career? Are we possibly underrating his talent and game, and his ability to help the Cs win right now.
I think we may be doing exactly that.
This much seems clear. Jayson Tatum was selected third overall in what is regarded as a very strong lottery class. Danny Ainge ranked him the best talent in the draft class, which is why he made the deal with Philadelphia. He picked up a free future no. 1 pick because other teams rated Fultz and Ball ahead of Tatum. Ainge did not.
Almost all the other players selected in the top 9 will play serious minutes—i.e. 25 mpg—and many will be starters playing gonzo minutes. Several will likely explode across the NBA horizon. And Danny thinks Jayson Tatum is better than all of them.
Tatum is arguably the most talented rookie to come to the Cs since Kevin McHale in 1980 or you-know-who in 1979. He is certainly the equal of Paul Pierce in 1998. And, please, no flaming. I love Paul Pierce and saw damned near every game he played as a Celtic.
Dispatching a talent like this to a year of Jordan Mickey purgatory seems dubious on its face.
So why, unlike the other lottery picks, and unlike McHale and Pierce when they were rookies, will Tatum ride the pine in Boston, and carry the jock strap bag to and from the team bus among his other rookie duties?
Because the Cs, unlike the other lottery teams, are a genuine contender for the NBA title, and contenders do not play rookies to develop them for a couple of years down the road. They play to win. Now. Period.
I agree.
But the issue is whether Tatum, the player Danny deemed the top talent in the NBA draft, may actually be good enough to contribute rotation minutes from the get-go.
I think he almost certainly will be able to do so. I am not talking 30 mpg, but certainly 15-20 mpg. And I think he will likely develop over the course of the season by playing so much that he will be a much better player by the 2018 playoffs. So we can get a win-win. A better team with Tatum playing in the regular season, and a much better team come late April and May and, hopefully, June.
FWIW, that is what Kevin McHale did in his rookie year. He played 20mpg in a frontcourt that included Parish, Maxwell and Robey, and was a key player off the bench when the team won the NBA title in June 1981.
BfB’s argument argument about Tatum needing time to develop made a lot more sense with Jaylen Brown, also a 3rd pick overall. Brown was a gifted athlete who showed some holes in his game at Cal. He was far from a finished product. Yet Brown managed to play 17mpg as a rookie, on a veteran team that was fighting to win in 2017. And that experience was no doubt crucial to the improvement Brown showed by the playoffs and definitely going forward. Having him sit at the end of the bench would not have helped the team or his career. He will almost certainly be in line for an increase in mpg in 17-18, and his assuming a starter’s role is not out of the question.
The same is true for Tatum, only more so.
Why do I feel this way?
1. Everyone acknowledges that Tatum’s offensive game is advanced and he can play at a high level right now. He needs to extend the range on his shot, true, as every rookie except possibly Devin Booker must do. But that is not enough to put him on the bench. He is already one of our better offensive players, and by the end of the season will probably be our third best offensive player. That could be huge come May and, hopefully, June. The Cs informed Sherrod Blakely that they regarded Tatum as becoming a 25 ppg scorer. That is bigtime, all-pro territory.
2. As developed as Tatum’s game is offensively, there is room for improvement, and not just extending the range on his jumper. ESPN’s Jeff Goodman said that in 10th grade when Tatum burst on the national scene, it was primarily for his passing and playmaking ability. Coach K commented that Tatum was the best passer on the Duke team last year but he did not really have a chance to show that. Brad will allow that aspect of Tatum’s game to be developed, and it is a tantalizing thought. Put that together with the scoring and …wow.
3. The rap on Tatum was that he wasn’t a spectacular athlete and that he would have troubles at the defensive end. Summer league should have lessened those concerns, if not outright dispelled them. He is a legit 6-8 with a plus wingspan. He may not jump out of the gym, but he is a more-than-adequate athlete. He needs to add strength and probably won’t hit his max playing weight until he is 25, but he is not a twig or a wimp. Brad commented he thought Tatum could guard 1 through 4. That may be an exaggeration, but it was still attention-getting.
4. Even with all of the above, it takes time to develop. And here is what I regard as Tatum’s most interesting component: everyone talks about his ability to learn and adapt his game at a rare level. He is an extremely quick study. Tatum also has an utterly tireless work ethic. His intangibles are 99th percentile. So, yes, he will not learn Brad’s defense overnight. But he will learn it as quickly at Jaylen Brown, and possibly much quicker. That should not keep him off the floor.
BfB thinks Tatum is odd man out and Crowder wins the minutes derby. That may happen, but if it does it will not be because Tatum isn’t ready to play 15-20 mpg as much as it is that Crowder is having a career year at age 27. That would not be a bad outcome at all. But if there is any doubt about Crowder I could see Tatum taking some of his minutes, because there are grounds to think that Tatum will be able to offer more to the team by April and May 2018 than Crowder. His upside is potentially at a whole different level, and the sooner it gets here, the sooner the Cs are a truly dominant team.
So I just don’t see how Tatum can be kept off the floor. He is too good. And he needs rotation minutes to develop his game quickly. Bottom line: it is hard enough to see a road to the NBA title for the Cs in 2018. But it is much harder if Tatum is not in the rotation come May and June. We have been so flooded with free agents like Horford and Hayward and the bounty of lottery picks like Jaylen I think we have sort of overlooked what we have in Tatum.
I certainly did not say Tatum would be a "bench warmer". I said He has a great deal to learn before he's ready to be an impact player on Jae Crowder's level.
Crowder will certainly be moved when the time is right, but Tatum is not yet a threat to supplant him.
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