Wade?
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
Captain_Caveman wrote:We could sit here all day long and poke holes in these advanced stats big enough to drive trucks, through. Anyone who went college knows that. Small sample size with no control variable in apples and oranges situations.
What you can't drive a truck through is the following: Dwyane Wade is one of the best SGs to ever play the game, and Brad Stevens is, oh... I don't know... maybe ten times the coach that Brad Hoiberg is, with a roster three times as good as the one Wade was supposed to help carry for a hapless Chicago team last year in a top-of-the-rotation role? Something like that, right?
Here's another fact: If Rondo doesn't get hurt in the playoffs last year, they probably knock us out in the first round. If not for Avery Bradley's defense on both Wade and Butler, they might have done it even without Rondo. I mean, with due respect to his family tragedy, the fact remains that their backcourt kicked the living **** out of IT in Game 2. I definitely did not miss that.
IN any event, I am more than confident that Brad Stevens could find Wade a productive and efficient back-of-the-rotation role on a much more talented team if needed. He's done more with less.
If we were talking about D-Rating, RPM, Win Shares, or anything with a regression component I'd agree with you (the modeling assumptions necessary for regression are never met in basketball, leading to endogeneity bias). Sample size isn't an issue. ORating is a pretty straightforward estimate of efficiency. TS% tells the same story. We're not estimating parameters here. There's no model. O-Rating is a summary statistic. Context should be taken into account, just like with FG%, but your point about "controls' doesn't really make sense here.
Would Brad get more out of him, probably, but here's something you can't drive a truck through: he's 35, undersized, relies on athleticism he's already lost. He's cooked. Top 5 all-time SG or not, father time caught him.
You must have been a fan of the Dominique signing.
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Re: Wade?
- Captain_Caveman
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Re: Wade?
iTalkToTheLord wrote:Captain_Caveman wrote:We could sit here all day long and poke holes in these advanced stats big enough to drive trucks, through. Anyone who went college knows that. Small sample size with no control variable in apples and oranges situations.
What you can't drive a truck through is the following: Dwyane Wade is one of the best SGs to ever play the game, and Brad Stevens is, oh... I don't know... maybe ten times the coach that Brad Hoiberg is, with a roster three times as good as the one Wade was supposed to help carry for a hapless Chicago team last year in a top-of-the-rotation role? Something like that, right?
Here's another fact: If Rondo doesn't get hurt in the playoffs last year, they probably knock us out in the first round. If not for Avery Bradley's defense on both Wade and Butler, they might have done it even without Rondo. I mean, with due respect to his family tragedy, the fact remains that their backcourt kicked the living **** out of IT in Game 2. I definitely did not miss that.
IN any event, I am more than confident that Brad Stevens could find Wade a productive and efficient back-of-the-rotation role on a much more talented team if needed. He's done more with less.
If we were talking about D-Rating, RPM, Win Shares, or anything with a regression component I'd agree with you (the modeling assumptions necessary for regression are never met in basketball, leading to endogeneity bias). Sample size isn't an issue. ORating is a pretty straightforward estimate of efficiency. TS% tells the same story. We're not estimating parameters here. There's no model. O-Rating is a summary statistic. Context should be taken into account, just like with FG%, but your point about "controls' doesn't really make sense here.
Would Brad get more out of him, probably, but here's something you can't drive a truck through: he's 35, undersized, relies on athleticism he's already lost. He's cooked. Top 5 all-time SG or not, father time caught him.
You must have been a fan of the Dominique signing.
We aren't going to agree, and that's fine. My point made plenty of sense, though. Talking about a different role for a different coach on a different team with different players. He's not going to carry a team in a leading role anymore, but as an 8th man for a team with some of the worst bench scoring in the league, and with collectively little playoff experience? Have a hard time seeing where that's not worth a minimum salary, particularly in a playoff game.
We aren't talking about a Dominique role where we are propping him up as a leader past his prime. We are talking about a Nate Robinson/Barbosa level role. It's an apples and oranges comparison from his role last year.
So be it.
Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
iTalkToTheLord wrote:Captain_Caveman wrote:We could sit here all day long and poke holes in these advanced stats big enough to drive trucks, through. Anyone who went college knows that. Small sample size with no control variable in apples and oranges situations.
What you can't drive a truck through is the following: Dwyane Wade is one of the best SGs to ever play the game, and Brad Stevens is, oh... I don't know... maybe ten times the coach that Brad Hoiberg is, with a roster three times as good as the one Wade was supposed to help carry for a hapless Chicago team last year in a top-of-the-rotation role? Something like that, right?
Here's another fact: If Rondo doesn't get hurt in the playoffs last year, they probably knock us out in the first round. If not for Avery Bradley's defense on both Wade and Butler, they might have done it even without Rondo. I mean, with due respect to his family tragedy, the fact remains that their backcourt kicked the living **** out of IT in Game 2. I definitely did not miss that.
IN any event, I am more than confident that Brad Stevens could find Wade a productive and efficient back-of-the-rotation role on a much more talented team if needed. He's done more with less.
If we were talking about D-Rating, RPM, Win Shares, or anything with a regression component I'd agree with you (the modeling assumptions necessary for regression are never met in basketball, leading to endogeneity bias). Sample size isn't an issue. ORating is a pretty straightforward estimate of efficiency. TS% tells the same story. We're not estimating parameters here. There's no model. O-Rating is a summary statistic. Context should be taken into account, just like with FG%, but your point about "controls' doesn't really make sense here.
Would Brad get more out of him, probably, but here's something you can't drive a truck through: he's 35, undersized, relies on athleticism he's already lost. He's cooked. Top 5 all-time SG or not, father time caught him.
You must have been a fan of the Dominique signing.
Undersized? Jesus what is the ideal size then lol? Are you putting him at the 3?
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
Froob wrote:Undersized? Jesus what is the ideal size then lol? Are you putting him at the 3?
6'4" is undersized for a 2. Not to a great extent, but you kind of made my point for me. Guys that age well often do so because they can move up a position. Wade can't.
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
Captain_Caveman wrote:iTalkToTheLord wrote:Captain_Caveman wrote:We could sit here all day long and poke holes in these advanced stats big enough to drive trucks, through. Anyone who went college knows that. Small sample size with no control variable in apples and oranges situations.
What you can't drive a truck through is the following: Dwyane Wade is one of the best SGs to ever play the game, and Brad Stevens is, oh... I don't know... maybe ten times the coach that Brad Hoiberg is, with a roster three times as good as the one Wade was supposed to help carry for a hapless Chicago team last year in a top-of-the-rotation role? Something like that, right?
Here's another fact: If Rondo doesn't get hurt in the playoffs last year, they probably knock us out in the first round. If not for Avery Bradley's defense on both Wade and Butler, they might have done it even without Rondo. I mean, with due respect to his family tragedy, the fact remains that their backcourt kicked the living **** out of IT in Game 2. I definitely did not miss that.
IN any event, I am more than confident that Brad Stevens could find Wade a productive and efficient back-of-the-rotation role on a much more talented team if needed. He's done more with less.
If we were talking about D-Rating, RPM, Win Shares, or anything with a regression component I'd agree with you (the modeling assumptions necessary for regression are never met in basketball, leading to endogeneity bias). Sample size isn't an issue. ORating is a pretty straightforward estimate of efficiency. TS% tells the same story. We're not estimating parameters here. There's no model. O-Rating is a summary statistic. Context should be taken into account, just like with FG%, but your point about "controls' doesn't really make sense here.
Would Brad get more out of him, probably, but here's something you can't drive a truck through: he's 35, undersized, relies on athleticism he's already lost. He's cooked. Top 5 all-time SG or not, father time caught him.
You must have been a fan of the Dominique signing.
We aren't going to agree, and that's fine. My point made plenty of sense, though. Talking about a different role for a different coach on a different team with different players. He's not going to carry a team in a leading role anymore, but as an 8th man for a team with some of the worst bench scoring in the league, and with collectively little playoff experience? Have a hard time seeing where that's not worth a minimum salary, particularly in a playoff game.
We aren't talking about a Dominique role where we are propping him up as a leader past his prime. We are talking about a Nate Robinson/Barbosa level role. It's an apples and oranges comparison from his role last year.
So be it.
I agree with you.
I also agree with your IT posts for the most part.
Amazing.
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Re: Wade?
iTalkToTheLord wrote:Froob wrote:Undersized? Jesus what is the ideal size then lol? Are you putting him at the 3?
6'4" is undersized for a 2. Not to a great extent, but you kind of made my point for me. Guys that age well often do so because they can move up a position. Wade can't.
Yeah he can, he's got a 6'11 wingspan and 8'6 standing reach, both better than Crowder who people pen as a capable smallball 4. Anyways, **** Wade.
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
iTalkToTheLord wrote:Froob wrote:Undersized? Jesus what is the ideal size then lol? Are you putting him at the 3?
6'4" is undersized for a 2. Not to a great extent, but you kind of made my point for me. Guys that age well often do so because they can move up a position. Wade can't.
I feel like this ideal height people are looking for is mostly unrealistic, I mean if everyone is undersized then they aren't really undersized hah? No offense intended.
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
Froob wrote:iTalkToTheLord wrote:Froob wrote:Undersized? Jesus what is the ideal size then lol? Are you putting him at the 3?
6'4" is undersized for a 2. Not to a great extent, but you kind of made my point for me. Guys that age well often do so because they can move up a position. Wade can't.
I feel like this ideal height people are looking for is mostly unrealistic, I mean if everyone is undersized then they aren't really undersized hah? No offense intended.
I see the 2/3 as one position, his wingspan/reach is a valid counterpoint, so I suppose he isn't undersized, but I still don't see him moving into the stretch 4 role as he ages a la Pierce/Joe Johnson.
"Danny Ainge needs to shut the **** up and manage his own team. He was the biggest whiner when he was playing, and I know that because I coached against him."
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Re: Wade?
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Re: Wade?
iTalkToTheLord wrote:Froob wrote:iTalkToTheLord wrote:
6'4" is undersized for a 2. Not to a great extent, but you kind of made my point for me. Guys that age well often do so because they can move up a position. Wade can't.
I feel like this ideal height people are looking for is mostly unrealistic, I mean if everyone is undersized then they aren't really undersized hah? No offense intended.
I see the 2/3 as one position, his wingspan/reach is a valid counterpoint, so I suppose he isn't undersized, but I still don't see him moving into the stretch 4 role as he ages a la Pierce/Joe Johnson.
True, I'm more concerned with how guys play than their size though generally speaking. Was always a lot of talk about AB being undersized but he defended Hayward (well guess he's a scrub now in hindsight) and Butler very well and even became a good rebounder. Then we have KO who is big but plays small.
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