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truth18 wrote:Gordon blows. His situation is nothing like Horford's. At least Horford can jump higher than me. Enjoy being wrong next year.

JK no one is going to enjoy anything with him taking up the money he has.

reload141 wrote:

ThirtyFour wrote:

reload141 wrote:Think some will be really surprised with Hayward next season, but that's just me.

In a good way?

Yep. I believe in him and I think once we sort out the offseason we will be a much better team for it.

BRUNiNHO91 wrote:He needs to be the 2nd highest usage guy on the Celtics next year. He is the best play maker on the team. I never thought we saw him establish great chemistry with Horford or even Kyrie due to his time off the bench. He started gelling with Jaylen towards the end of the season and that's about it. Against the Bucks I just thought he looked bad because they were at a different level physically that Gordon just couldn't keep up with. Which is normal..in the first game things worked because the entire team played so well, ball moving etc..that's when he is at his best. When he was asked to create one on one, with a stagnant offensive system around him, he had no shot..which wasn't surprising since even Kyrie struggled to do so.

threrf23 wrote:I get the sense that Gordo plays off of his teammates' energy to some effect. At least, that is how I am rationalizing his performance against the Bucks.

Up until the Bucks series I thought he was getting critiqued unfairly. Not only was he recovering from his leg injury, but he has always been the type to make quiet contributions that easily go unnoticed. Even on a bad night, he is generally in the right spots and makes the right decisions. Statistically, all stats considered, he had a better year last year than many presume.

I remember after he was signed, a Jazz fan came here and told us that part of the reason he was so successful in Utah, was because the Jazz had designed their entire offense around him. We don't need to design our offense around him, but it is our coaching staff's responsibility to make sure that he lives up to potential next season.

zoyathedestroya wrote:

threrf23 wrote:I get the sense that Gordo plays off of his teammates' energy to some effect. At least, that is how I am rationalizing his performance against the Bucks.

Up until the Bucks series I thought he was getting critiqued unfairly. Not only was he recovering from his leg injury, but he has always been the type to make quiet contributions that easily go unnoticed. Even on a bad night, he is generally in the right spots and makes the right decisions. Statistically, all stats considered, he had a better year last year than many presume.

I remember after he was signed, a Jazz fan came here and told us that part of the reason he was so successful in Utah, was because the Jazz had designed their entire offense around him. We don't need to design our offense around him, but it is our coaching staff's responsibility to make sure that he lives up to potential next season.

Compared his PER36 numbers this season (72 games) and his last season in Utah (73 games).



He was really bad shooting the three-ball prior to February. It was at 38.7% since February 1. Everything else was pretty close. The point production was never going to be the same even if healthy considering he was the #1 guy in Utah. Boston had Kyrie, Tatum, and Brown to carry the scoring load. Then you had guys like Morris and Rozier who took away touches and shots from him whenever they shared the floor. He was taking 4 FGAs (per 36 mins) less in Boston. His ppg will naturally decrease.

For an entire year where he was still getting back into game shape after his second surgery, where his role isn't clearly defined due to overlaps, where he didn't want to step on anybody's toes ("walking on eggshells" was the phrase being thrown around), where Rozier (contrary to TRo's claims) has the ball in his hands on the second unit more often than not, those numbers are pretty good.

We wouldn't see the real potential of Hayward until the roles and usage on the team are sorted out. We had an opportunity to do that by at least trading Rozier but Danny inexplicably stood pat.

I don't expect Celtics fans to come out impressed with Hayward's performance last season. But reducing him to "eh, didn't score much, wasn't aggressive enough" without looking at his other contributions and the context in which he made those contributions is foolhardy. We saw glimpses of what he can be when given the right role and opportunity. I am hopeful for next season if they intend to keep him and we Marie Kondo the **** out of our roster.

Speaking of glimpses, Hayward was one of only 14 guys in the entire league (only Celtic) who had multiple 30-point games in under 30 minutes. The scorer in him is still there.

If Kyrie returns, I like the Manu role for Hayward. But Cs have to almost exclusively let him handle the ball whenever Kyrie and Horford sit. He remains the best playmaker within Brad's system imo.

cloverleaf wrote:

zoyathedestroya wrote:

threrf23 wrote:I get the sense that Gordo plays off of his teammates' energy to some effect. At least, that is how I am rationalizing his performance against the Bucks.

Up until the Bucks series I thought he was getting critiqued unfairly. Not only was he recovering from his leg injury, but he has always been the type to make quiet contributions that easily go unnoticed. Even on a bad night, he is generally in the right spots and makes the right decisions. Statistically, all stats considered, he had a better year last year than many presume.

I remember after he was signed, a Jazz fan came here and told us that part of the reason he was so successful in Utah, was because the Jazz had designed their entire offense around him. We don't need to design our offense around him, but it is our coaching staff's responsibility to make sure that he lives up to potential next season.

Compared his PER36 numbers this season (72 games) and his last season in Utah (73 games).



He was really bad shooting the three-ball prior to February. It was at 38.7% since February 1. Everything else was pretty close. The point production was never going to be the same even if healthy considering he was the #1 guy in Utah. Boston had Kyrie, Tatum, and Brown to carry the scoring load. Then you had guys like Morris and Rozier who took away touches and shots from him whenever they shared the floor. He was taking 4 FGAs (per 36 mins) less in Boston. His ppg will naturally decrease.

For an entire year where he was still getting back into game shape after his second surgery, where his role isn't clearly defined due to overlaps, where he didn't want to step on anybody's toes ("walking on eggshells" was the phrase being thrown around), where Rozier (contrary to TRo's claims) has the ball in his hands on the second unit more often than not, those numbers are pretty good.

We wouldn't see the real potential of Hayward until the roles and usage on the team are sorted out. We had an opportunity to do that by at least trading Rozier but Danny inexplicably stood pat.

I don't expect Celtics fans to come out impressed with Hayward's performance last season. But reducing him to "eh, didn't score much, wasn't aggressive enough" without looking at his other contributions and the context in which he made those contributions is foolhardy. We saw glimpses of what he can be when given the right role and opportunity. I am hopeful for next season if they intend to keep him and we Marie Kondo the **** out of our roster.

Speaking of glimpses, Hayward was one of only 14 guys in the entire league (only Celtic) who had multiple 30-point games in under 30 minutes. The scorer in him is still there.

If Kyrie returns, I like the Manu role for Hayward. But Cs have to almost exclusively let him handle the ball whenever Kyrie and Horford sit. He remains the best playmaker within Brad's system imo.

Where he was hurt last year was in his ability to defend at a previously surprisingly good level. And he took fewer shots because he had a harder time getting separation. I contend it is his perfectionism that wouldn't let him shoot more than he could deliver at a decent percentage on. (Something that has never bothered the likes of Rozier or Smart, for example, but does seem to affect Tatum, who may have a bit more of Gordo's personality.)

Of course, he also got stronger this past year as the season went along--until he hit the playoffs Bucks.

zoyathedestroya wrote:Compared his PER36 numbers this season (72 games) and his last season in Utah (73 games).

zoyathedestroya wrote:

soxfan2003 wrote:

robdog_5 wrote:He has 1 year left than a player option. If next year is a disaster I think he and Brad both leave anyways. I don’t think he stays around Boston to collect a check the next year. I see trading Hayward as a real negative in terms of optics and value.

I expect if the Celtics get AD this off-season, Hayward averages anywhere between 15 to 19 PPG next season with very good efficiency during regular season but ultimately every Celtic will be judged in playoffs and hard to guess at this without knowing makeup of team and opponents. The 19 ppg is if Irving is replaced by lower usage point guards and the 15 PPG is if Irving is still on the team. I fully expect Tatum to be gone if Davis is on the the Celtics. No way in hell does Ainge repeat this SF logjam of 4 players expecting minutes and shots.

Other than a trade of KD for Hayward plus picks I don't see a Hayward trade that really makes sense for the Celtics and the other team and Hayward this off-season but by midseason/next off-season everything reevaluated. The more I think about it KD trade only available if KD says he is gone and if Boston takes themselves out of AD sweepstakes otherwise why the heck would Golden state facilitate AD to join KD/Horford/Irving and lower their own title chances.

Let's run through some possibilities for this off-season.

I suspect Wolves would like to have Hayward for Wiggins but Celtics would be risking too much to gamble on Wiggins at his current salary especially given makeup of the Celtics. Wolves have said they can trade Wiggins and that they recently received several offers but I don't believe the offers would be anything as good as Hayward right now. Probably a contract between Hayward and Wall who as of right now has worst contract in NBA.

After the strong finish to 2nd half of the season admittedly in a modest usage role, very good playoffs vs Indiana and bad playoffs shooting against Milwaukee in low usage, other teams I suspect view Hayward as a 2 year 50 million dollar player right now in terms of playing ability. GM's have to know Hayward is just in a messed up situation but Hayward is making more than 25 million a year going forward. And he isn't a player that at this stage will help sell many season tickets.

But if a team like the Nets with cap space can't sign anyone, maybe they want him but that would be doing a disservice to Hayward at this point. Much worse than what Clippers did to Blake Griffin come to think about it since at least Griffin I believe got closer to his max salary. Warm LA to cold winters on a mediocre Detroit team is tough, however. Hayward gave up money and a year to leave Utah. I am not even saying Nets want him but I could see him helping them out.

At a smaller salary, he probably fits Milwaukee if Middleton left. But I suspect Bucks prioritize Middleton and let a couple of their other contributors leave instead.

Hayward isn't good enough to replace Leonard in Toronto and still have that team contend but if Leonard wants to leave for a stronger team while getting Toronto something in the deal, Hayward plus a few picks for Leonard makes some sense for both teams. Toronto has an aging cast if anything, they may want to supplement Leonard with Hayward but that is too costly. This does screw over Hayward. And Leonard probably chooses between Toronto and LA.

Philly could actually use him if some players like Butler left but I think Celtics nuts to give Butler a 4 year max contract given Butler's age/ability. Not so worried abut years 1-2 but 3-4 could be a Gerald Wallace type disaster but a much harder to manage player. Wallace seemed like a good team player with Boston at least.

Indiana? They can use all of the offense they can get but they may want to go younger since they are a long ways away.

Houston? As long as they play the D'Antoni style and have Paul to go alongside Harden, no need for Hayward at his current salary.

I could perhaps see Houston wanting to do Hayward for Paul trade but Boston a little crazy to risk that with Paul having 4 years left on his massive deal.

Portland. Hayward for Nurkic and Turner (expiring) works for both teams. Blazers gamble on Hayward to be their 3rd most reliable scorer and 2nd best playmaker. Just get a defensive big not named Kanter from FA/trade like Dedmon. Develop Collins. Maybe bring back Ed Davis. Celtics finally get an inside presence and Horford moves down to PF, where he's more comfortable, at least in the regular season. This works better in a non-AD scenario. Hand most of the scoring load to Tatum, Brown, and a bench scorer.

nickgammon wrote:

zoyathedestroya wrote:

soxfan2003 wrote:
I expect if the Celtics get AD this off-season, Hayward averages anywhere between 15 to 19 PPG next season with very good efficiency during regular season but ultimately every Celtic will be judged in playoffs and hard to guess at this without knowing makeup of team and opponents. The 19 ppg is if Irving is replaced by lower usage point guards and the 15 PPG is if Irving is still on the team. I fully expect Tatum to be gone if Davis is on the the Celtics. No way in hell does Ainge repeat this SF logjam of 4 players expecting minutes and shots.

Other than a trade of KD for Hayward plus picks I don't see a Hayward trade that really makes sense for the Celtics and the other team and Hayward this off-season but by midseason/next off-season everything reevaluated. The more I think about it KD trade only available if KD says he is gone and if Boston takes themselves out of AD sweepstakes otherwise why the heck would Golden state facilitate AD to join KD/Horford/Irving and lower their own title chances.

Let's run through some possibilities for this off-season.

I suspect Wolves would like to have Hayward for Wiggins but Celtics would be risking too much to gamble on Wiggins at his current salary especially given makeup of the Celtics. Wolves have said they can trade Wiggins and that they recently received several offers but I don't believe the offers would be anything as good as Hayward right now. Probably a contract between Hayward and Wall who as of right now has worst contract in NBA.

After the strong finish to 2nd half of the season admittedly in a modest usage role, very good playoffs vs Indiana and bad playoffs shooting against Milwaukee in low usage, other teams I suspect view Hayward as a 2 year 50 million dollar player right now in terms of playing ability. GM's have to know Hayward is just in a messed up situation but Hayward is making more than 25 million a year going forward. And he isn't a player that at this stage will help sell many season tickets.

But if a team like the Nets with cap space can't sign anyone, maybe they want him but that would be doing a disservice to Hayward at this point. Much worse than what Clippers did to Blake Griffin come to think about it since at least Griffin I believe got closer to his max salary. Warm LA to cold winters on a mediocre Detroit team is tough, however. Hayward gave up money and a year to leave Utah. I am not even saying Nets want him but I could see him helping them out.

At a smaller salary, he probably fits Milwaukee if Middleton left. But I suspect Bucks prioritize Middleton and let a couple of their other contributors leave instead.

Hayward isn't good enough to replace Leonard in Toronto and still have that team contend but if Leonard wants to leave for a stronger team while getting Toronto something in the deal, Hayward plus a few picks for Leonard makes some sense for both teams. Toronto has an aging cast if anything, they may want to supplement Leonard with Hayward but that is too costly. This does screw over Hayward. And Leonard probably chooses between Toronto and LA.

Philly could actually use him if some players like Butler left but I think Celtics nuts to give Butler a 4 year max contract given Butler's age/ability. Not so worried abut years 1-2 but 3-4 could be a Gerald Wallace type disaster but a much harder to manage player. Wallace seemed like a good team player with Boston at least.

Indiana? They can use all of the offense they can get but they may want to go younger since they are a long ways away.

Houston? As long as they play the D'Antoni style and have Paul to go alongside Harden, no need for Hayward at his current salary.

I could perhaps see Houston wanting to do Hayward for Paul trade but Boston a little crazy to risk that with Paul having 4 years left on his massive deal.

Portland. Hayward for Nurkic and Turner (expiring) works for both teams. Blazers gamble on Hayward to be their 3rd most reliable scorer and 2nd best playmaker. Just get a defensive big not named Kanter from FA/trade like Dedmon. Develop Collins. Maybe bring back Ed Davis. Celtics finally get an inside presence and Horford moves down to PF, where he's more comfortable, at least in the regular season. This works better in a non-AD scenario. Hand most of the scoring load to Tatum, Brown, and a bench scorer.

You want to trade him for another guy who will average 9.5 in the playoffs and a guy who will also get ripped apart for not coming back as an All-Star after a devastating leg injury?

Ight

zoyathedestroya wrote:

nickgammon wrote:

zoyathedestroya wrote:Portland. Hayward for Nurkic and Turner (expiring) works for both teams. Blazers gamble on Hayward to be their 3rd most reliable scorer and 2nd best playmaker. Just get a defensive big not named Kanter from FA/trade like Dedmon. Develop Collins. Maybe bring back Ed Davis. Celtics finally get an inside presence and Horford moves down to PF, where he's more comfortable, at least in the regular season. This works better in a non-AD scenario. Hand most of the scoring load to Tatum, Brown, and a bench scorer.

You want to trade him for another guy who will average 9.5 in the playoffs and a guy who will also get ripped apart for not coming back as an All-Star after a devastating leg injury?

Ight

I personally don't. Look at most of my previous posts. I'm as high on Hayward getting back to near old form as anyone.

redsox was throwing around trade ideas in case that's the direction Boston wants to go. I pitched in one. It's definitely selling low. A get-anything-in-return type of deal.

cloverleaf wrote:he's a driven perfectionist. It's what made him so good at tennis, basketball and gaming. Having his body not up to what it needs to be and used to be for the level of basketball he had become used to obviously ate at him to no end.

Fully healthy in his prime, he'd be great as a #3 on a championship team (Ray Allen, but as more of a balanced scorer, playmaker and defender more than pure shooting specialist). Next year, he will either likely be that (with AD and KI), a #2 behind AD, KI or some other max guy brought in, or #1 if they go with the full youth and keep him as the head of a three-headed starting O with JT and JB.

He's not PP, of course, but he could be in that role if AD is here as not KG, but in that role, and then one of KI, JT or JB as the off-the-ball RA-type of guard to round it out.

Hayward’s injury is unique in the sense that it’s hard to find an exact NBA comparison. But using the examples listed above, we can conclude a couple things.

First, it’s not unusual that Hayward is laying off dunking and is a relatively poor finisher his first season back from such a devastating injury. All three players above struggled significantly with finishing in their first post-injury seasons.

Second, Randle and George found their bearings season three after injury, meaning it was two full seasons before they settled into the types of players they would become. In both cases, this involved adapting their games, though it’s unclear whether this was a response to injury or a natural progression of skill development. As it pertains to Hayward, CTG touches on his usage, points per shot attempt, and three-point percentage (or lack thereof). Given that he is displaying a mostly desirable shot distribution, perhaps it’s just a matter of making those shots and that will bear out in a bigger sample over time.

So while we can’t say anything definitive about Hayward, what we can say is this: we likely won’t see his final form this season. We may not even see it next season, either. For the sake of basketball fans everywhere, I hope we see it eventually.

greenroom31 wrote:Good, detailed article on Gordon and his potential to regain form by a doctor:

https://www.injurymetrics.com/nba/what-finishing-can-tell-us-about-gordon-hayward/

It concludes with:

Hayward’s injury is unique in the sense that it’s hard to find an exact NBA comparison. But using the examples listed above, we can conclude a couple things.

First, it’s not unusual that Hayward is laying off dunking and is a relatively poor finisher his first season back from such a devastating injury. All three players above struggled significantly with finishing in their first post-injury seasons.

Second, Randle and George found their bearings season three after injury, meaning it was two full seasons before they settled into the types of players they would become. In both cases, this involved adapting their games, though it’s unclear whether this was a response to injury or a natural progression of skill development. As it pertains to Hayward, CTG touches on his usage, points per shot attempt, and three-point percentage (or lack thereof). Given that he is displaying a mostly desirable shot distribution, perhaps it’s just a matter of making those shots and that will bear out in a bigger sample over time.

So while we can’t say anything definitive about Hayward, what we can say is this: we likely won’t see his final form this season. We may not even see it next season, either. For the sake of basketball fans everywhere, I hope we see it eventually.