What will Jayson Tatum become...

[Larry Legend 33]

Top 10? -- Tatum, Definitely.
Brown? -- Top 50. Maybe Top 30.

Lost me here. He won't be top 10, but he can settle into that top 15-25 range if he keeps working. He was drafted as a guy with a high ceiling and is already ahead of schedule.

Name 10 guys drafted in last 5 years that are better! Jaylen may not ever be as good as Lebron or Curry or Kawhi. But how many guys drafted since Kyrie in 2011 will have more upside 5 years from now? For certain you have Davis, Greek Freak, Tatum, Mitchell, Simmons, Embiid and I’ll give you Jokic (but I’m not sold). Booker? Porzingas (injuries?), KAT (defense, winner?), Gobert?. Is there anyone in this draft definitely better? Doncic? Ayton? Not sure there is. In 5 years Curry, Kawhi, Irving, Lebron, Durant, Klay, Harden, Westbrook, Lillard, Greene etc. will all be 33 or older.

So it really isn’t that hard to imagine that Brown could be top 10 if he continues to improve his game as he has so far. The outside shot is ahead of schedule and the defense is already elite for his age. The only things holding him back are the weak handle and passing. He’s only 21. Will he do it? Possibly not but he is ours to control for 6-7 more years - 2 of those on a rookie deal.

I'm a huge Jaylen fan, but you have to be more realistic. You are projecting the best case scenario for Jaylen while projecting the worst case scenario for a bunch of the other budding stars around the league. And you're projecting that basically every 27-28 year old star we have right now will fall off a cliff at 32/33 and that no one drafted this year or in future years between now & then will become top 10.

Could he possibly be top 10 in 5 years? Yes.
Is that the most likely outcome? No.

[sam_I_am]

Lost me here. He won't be top 10, but he can settle into that top 15-25 range if he keeps working. He was drafted as a guy with a high ceiling and is already ahead of schedule.

Name 10 guys drafted in last 5 years that are better! Jaylen may not ever be as good as Lebron or Curry or Kawhi. But how many guys drafted since Kyrie in 2011 will have more upside 5 years from now? For certain you have Davis, Greek Freak, Tatum, Mitchell, Simmons, Embiid and I’ll give you Jokic (but I’m not sold). Booker? Porzingas (injuries?), KAT (defense, winner?), Gobert?. Is there anyone in this draft definitely better? Doncic? Ayton? Not sure there is. In 5 years Curry, Kawhi, Irving, Lebron, Durant, Klay, Harden, Westbrook, Lillard, Greene etc. will all be 33 or older.

So it really isn’t that hard to imagine that Brown could be top 10 if he continues to improve his game as he has so far. The outside shot is ahead of schedule and the defense is already elite for his age. The only things holding him back are the weak handle and passing. He’s only 21. Will he do it? Possibly not but he is ours to control for 6-7 more years - 2 of those on a rookie deal.

I'm a huge Jaylen fan, but you have to be more realistic. You are projecting the best case scenario for Jaylen while projecting the worst case scenario for a bunch of the other budding stars around the league. And you're projecting that basically every 27-28 year old star we have right now will fall off a cliff at 32/33 and that no one drafted this year or in future years between now & then will become top 10.

Could he possibly be top 10 in 5 years? Yes.
Is that the most likely outcome? No.

I agree but think I actually pointed out that I was projecting favorably. Historically, 26 yo players do have a better 5 year window than 33 yo players - wouldn’t you agree? So there is no reason to even think they will fall off a cliff for it to be true.

However, another point I was making is that the last 5 drafts have been pretty disappointing for top tier talent. Especially the 2014 “Riggin for Wiggins” draft which was actually pretty poor. 2019 is also projecting to be a bad one for great players.

I think it is possible that in 5 years a top 10 talent won’t necessarily be as dominant as we are used to and that is partly why I think Jaylen might get there or at least be top 15.

To put it another way, when Jaylen is 26 and about to enter (we hope) his prime 4-5 years - who in their prime years will be better? Looking around I count less than 10 right now that are obvious.

[UHar_Vinnie]

With 100% certainty, I can say that, when it's all said and done, Tatum will be somewhere between the two Celtics greats of all time: Larry Bird and Brian Scalabrine.

[KumaJG]

Name 10 guys drafted in last 5 years that are better! Jaylen may not ever be as good as Lebron or Curry or Kawhi. But how many guys drafted since Kyrie in 2011 will have more upside 5 years from now? For certain you have Davis, Greek Freak, Tatum, Mitchell, Simmons, Embiid and I’ll give you Jokic (but I’m not sold). Booker? Porzingas (injuries?), KAT (defense, winner?), Gobert?. Is there anyone in this draft definitely better? Doncic? Ayton? Not sure there is. In 5 years Curry, Kawhi, Irving, Lebron, Durant, Klay, Harden, Westbrook, Lillard, Greene etc. will all be 33 or older.

So it really isn’t that hard to imagine that Brown could be top 10 if he continues to improve his game as he has so far. The outside shot is ahead of schedule and the defense is already elite for his age. The only things holding him back are the weak handle and passing. He’s only 21. Will he do it? Possibly not but he is ours to control for 6-7 more years - 2 of those on a rookie deal.

I'm a huge Jaylen fan, but you have to be more realistic. You are projecting the best case scenario for Jaylen while projecting the worst case scenario for a bunch of the other budding stars around the league. And you're projecting that basically every 27-28 year old star we have right now will fall off a cliff at 32/33 and that no one drafted this year or in future years between now & then will become top 10.

Could he possibly be top 10 in 5 years? Yes.
Is that the most likely outcome? No.

I agree but think I actually pointed out that I was projecting favorably. Historically, 26 yo players do have a better 5 year window than 33 yo players - wouldn’t you agree? So there is no reason to even think they will fall off a cliff for it to be true.

However, another point I was making is that the last 5 drafts have been pretty disappointing for top tier talent. Especially the 2014 “Riggin for Wiggins” draft which was actually pretty poor. 2019 is also projecting to be a bad one for great players.

I think it is possible that in 5 years a top 10 talent won’t necessarily be as dominant as we are used to and that is partly why I think Jaylen might get there or at least be top 15.

To put it another way, when Jaylen is 26 and about to enter (we hope) his prime 4-5 years - who in their prime years will be better? Looking around I count less than 10 right now that are obvious.

You are assuming Jaylen will make the same year 1 to year 2 over the course of his development. That not going to be the case.

[ripwesternny]

Meh. He's overrated, playing close to his career ceiling. He'll be a poor man's Rudy Gay. By the time his rookie scale contract ends, he'll be out of the league. /green

A poor man's Rudy Gay lol. Tatum already did more than Gay in one year. Tatum has a way better jump shot. If he improves his defense his ceiling is the sky.

[Asian Celtic]

Meh. He's overrated, playing close to his career ceiling. He'll be a poor man's Rudy Gay. By the time his rookie scale contract ends, he'll be out of the league. /green

A poor man's Rudy Gay lol. Tatum already did more than Gay in one year. Tatum has a way better jump shot. If he improves his defense his ceiling is the sky.

Are you new here?

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

A part of me wants Jaylen and Jayson to surpass this.

[87rottweiler]

What both Tatum and Brown have at their fingertips, is every resource conceivable to maximise their potential.

Yet another pivotal decision made by the man responsible for these resources; while being spoilt for choice - was drafting two young men whose work ethic and commitment to reach that potential matched perfectly.

[87rottweiler]

We don’t just simply draft the best player available, we draft players into the best available situation

[wco81]

Let's not get carried away.

Before the Tatum pick, there were people questioning Ainge's draft choices. This was before Brown had emerged.

Smart was his highest pick before then and he was bricking it a couple of years ago.

[Valid]

Let's not get carried away.

Before the Tatum pick, there were people questioning Ainge's draft choices. This was before Brown had emerged.

Smart was his highest pick before then and he was bricking it a couple of years ago.

Unintelligent people.

[Larry Legend 33]

Smart was his highest pick before then and he was bricking it a couple of years ago.

He's still bricking shots...

[Valid]

Smart was his highest pick before then and he was bricking it a couple of years ago.

He's still bricking shots...

Please, for the love of God, let's not turn this into another Marcus Smart thread. I beg you.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Tatum cooks Bamba:

Read on Twitter

Tatum roasts Embiid:

Read on Twitter

Bamba defended him well, at least. Embiid just got utterly destroyed.

[PierceFan4ever]

How is he 20...

[Afam]

Jayson Tatum. Himself.

[CeltsfaninDC]

Read on Twitter

Starts around the 3:15 mark

One thing I would like to see from Tatum is another set of moves for when he picks up his dribble. He needs some up and under moves to get him past the defender. Relying on that fall away is not great.

[keevsnick1]

In general I think im probably probably a little higher on jaylen then most, and a little lower on Tatum then most. Its not that I dont love Tatum its just there are people out there thay think its a certainty hes a top 10 player, and I dont think you can just pencil that in. For both guys I would say this, they have top 10 potential. Tatum may be more likely to get there but I could certainly see and scenario where Brown us like the 8th best player in the game. I dont know why you a would say that a 21 yo freak athlete with all defense potential and a rápidly developing skill set cant get there. Tatum is more polished for sure, and and he can flat out score which is why he may be more likely to reach that level, but he has weakneses that he needs to improve likr everyone else.

[Havlicek17]

Tatum is a taller Kobe Bryant. Very similar styles in my humble opinion.

His offensive game is smooth, similar pull up mid range shooter, and hits over 40% from 3. If you cover him tight on the perimeter, he'll easily blow by you for the dunk.

Plus he has that killer instinct...Just ask LAbron. Sky's the limit for this kid.

[sam_I_am]

In general I think im probably probably a little higher on jaylen then most, and a little lower on Tatum then most. Its not that I dont love Tatum its just there are people out there thay think its a certainty hes a top 10 player, and I dont think you can just pencil that in. For both guys I would say this, they have top 10 potential. Tatum may be more likely to get there but I could certainly see and scenario where Brown us like the 8th best player in the game. I dont know why you a would say that a 21 yo freak athlete with all defense potential and a rápidly developing skill set cant get there. Tatum is more polished for sure, and and he can flat out score which is why he may be more likely to reach that level, but he has weakneses that he needs to improve likr everyone else.

Tatum is already the complete package and his outside shot is freaking incredible already. His length is impactful already. So it’s no disrespect to Brown to oodle over Tatum.

However, many of us were excited about Brown before Tatum was drafted and we still should be. He is already a top 10 player IMO from 2014-2017 drafts and based on SL and 2019 draft projection, I think it will be true for 2018-9 too. There are always developing players - like Kawhi and Butler - who flourish in years 2 and 3 so maybe guys like Fultz, Ingram, Bender, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac etc. overtake him. But right now you have Embiid, Jokic, KAT, Porzingas, Simmons, Tatum, Mitchell, ?Ayton, ????Doncic as only players you could argue are better right now from those drafts and in 2019 the best player projected RJ Barrett looks like an inferior prospect to me. If you go back to 2013 you can add Giannis and Gobert and you still have Brown in top 12 out of 7 drafts. That is pretty god damn special and that is based on his play as a second year player at age 21. He will get better and he doesn’t have to make a Kawhi type leap to remain in this select company.

Obviously there are established stars who are better and there will be a guy drafted in 2020-2013 that will stun the basketball world like Mitchell and Lebron and Kobe and be better. But that doesn’t change my contention that right now, Brown is one of top 10 players drafted over a 5 year span.