RealGM

I think that Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, essentially switch payscales.
It's going to be tough to re-up Morris, and Rozier.
The Anthony Davis trade looms over the Entire Roster now.

We also have up to 4 x 1st Round Picks, in the 2019 Draft.

I have Morris on the MLE Rozier walking Kyrie max.

I think it might make sense to just pay Al now (or have him opt out and sign a declining contract that includes total money for the option year and his next contract). The tax rate next year is lower than it will be in the following years. We're going to be over for a while, so might as well pay the tax on Al's highest salary at the lowest rate.

If Al opts in, Kyrie maxes and you swap out Morris, Terry, Yabs, Theis for MLE ($9M?), 1 high draft pick (say $5M) one late one ($1.5M) and one vet min ($1.5M). That's a full roster and you're around $20M over the tax. Maybe you get Theis back instead for a smaller portion of the MLE (doubt he settles for a 120% raise), you don't sign a 15th guy, and you're that much less over. I still don't see getting under next year no matter what Al would accept smoothing-wise, so I say take the hit early.

Then the following year, Al is maybe $15M less. You use that to pay Brown. With a decent cap jump in 2020-2021 and some creativity, you may be within room of sneaking under again. Before you max Tatum the next year.

djFan71 wrote: Maybe you get Theis back instead for a smaller portion of the MLE (doubt he settles for a 120% raise)

Theis will be an early-bird after two years instead of non-bird (Baynes after 1 year). Non-Bird is the 120% of previous salary.

Early BIrd allows 175% of previous salary OR 105% of previous average salary and has to be 2-4 years. That would give us the ability to start him around 8 a year with 8% raises (I think).

grindtime22 wrote:

djFan71 wrote: Maybe you get Theis back instead for a smaller portion of the MLE (doubt he settles for a 120% raise)

Theis will be an early-bird after two years instead of non-bird (Baynes after 1 year). Non-Bird is the 120% of previous salary.

Early BIrd allows 175% of previous salary OR 105% of previous average salary and has to be 2-4 years. That would give us the ability to start him around 8 a year with 8% raises (I think).

Thanks, was wondering if it was 120%.... but figured it was somewhere in that range. But, 175% doesn't get you anywhere near 8. He's at $1.5ish now. Gets you only around $2.7M, right?

djFan71 wrote:

grindtime22 wrote:

djFan71 wrote: Maybe you get Theis back instead for a smaller portion of the MLE (doubt he settles for a 120% raise)

Theis will be an early-bird after two years instead of non-bird (Baynes after 1 year). Non-Bird is the 120% of previous salary.

Early BIrd allows 175% of previous salary OR 105% of previous average salary and has to be 2-4 years. That would give us the ability to start him around 8 a year with 8% raises (I think).

Thanks, was wondering if it was 120%.... but figured it was somewhere in that range. But, 175% doesn't get you anywhere near 8. He's at $1.5ish now. Gets you only around $2.7M, right?

A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater

So the average salary would obviously be much greater, which is how high we could go.

Season Estimated average salary
2017-18 $7,843,500
2018-19 $8,838,000

grindtime22 wrote:

djFan71 wrote:

grindtime22 wrote:
Theis will be an early-bird after two years instead of non-bird (Baynes after 1 year). Non-Bird is the 120% of previous salary.

Early BIrd allows 175% of previous salary OR 105% of previous average salary and has to be 2-4 years. That would give us the ability to start him around 8 a year with 8% raises (I think).

Thanks, was wondering if it was 120%.... but figured it was somewhere in that range. But, 175% doesn't get you anywhere near 8. He's at $1.5ish now. Gets you only around $2.7M, right?

A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater

So the average salary would obviously be much greater, which is how high we could go.

Season Estimated average salary
2017-18 $7,843,500
2018-19 $8,838,000

Ah, sneaky. I read that as his average salary... duh. Sorry.

djFan71 wrote:

grindtime22 wrote:

djFan71 wrote:Thanks, was wondering if it was 120%.... but figured it was somewhere in that range. But, 175% doesn't get you anywhere near 8. He's at $1.5ish now. Gets you only around $2.7M, right?

A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater

So the average salary would obviously be much greater, which is how high we could go.

Season Estimated average salary
2017-18 $7,843,500
2018-19 $8,838,000

Ah, sneaky. I read that as his average salary... duh. Sorry.

No worries, it could take a semester to get everything in the CBA figured out.

Well this is all pending that we can swing a trade for AD for our draft picks and a Horford + Brown or resigned Rozier, ect. That's plan A.

If Plan A fails...

Irving resigns.

Wannamaker and Rozier are gone.

Horford opts in because he's human and that's 30 million. Assuming he doesn't decline this year or next year that maximizes his career earnings.

Theis, Baynes, and Marcus Morris are free agents.

Morris leaves because he's old and been underpaid for years and needs to take the most cash he can find.

We try to keep one of Baynes or Theis, whomever's cheaper.

We use our own pick or hope Robert Williams or hope Semi can fill in the loss at big rotation with Morris plus one of Baynes or Theis leaving. (if we get the Grizzle pick instead and only have Baynes or Theis on 1 year deal again)

With the loss of Rozier we hope to have the Kings pick and grab a guard or wing. If it's someone who can't play PG we'll have Smart be our backup PG going forward.


We're going to have to rely on rookie contract players going forward with 3 maxes and an extremely overpaid Smart.

Hayward, Horford, Brown , Tatum, Smart, Williams ,Sac pick, Bird, Ojeleye are 9 good players under contract.
I am assuming Horford opts in...but maybe he opts out for a long term deal but he is back. Still some good years left.
Kyrie is job one...bring him back on a max or what ever he wants and Rozier is the insurance policy just in case.

I would then prioritise Theis assuming he plays like I think he well. A good rotation big, maybe they can get him at a portion of the MLE... say 3/20. And then I have a feeling Baynes will opt in so he is back as well.

So that is 12 guys. Add in Bos 2019 pick and that is 13.

Let Roziers RFA play out and I think maybe you still match an offer similar to Smart Money. My assumption is he gets something bigger but IDK.

I think they should end the Yabusele era and sign a couple minimums to fill out the roster. Let Morris walk.

First domino is Al Horford. If he opts out and resigns long term at less per year it opens the floodgates as to what Ainge can do. I think Morris is likely gone and one of Theis or Rozier too. Fortunately we have some extra draft picks to fill in the holes

idk if the c's can afford a 15M 7/8th man rozier? kyrie taking 90% of the max would help keep the youngens intact, as well flexibility to add quality pieces. tbh honest i'm surprised they haven't traded top draft picks for a veteran.

colaroaster wrote:idk if the c's can afford a 15M 7/8th man rozier? kyrie taking 90% of the max would help keep the youngens intact, as well flexibility to add quality pieces. tbh honest i'm surprised they haven't traded top draft picks for a veteran.

Well, we all know how Danny operates, trading picks for a vet would have to net us a great vet. I'm sure he has tried, but it might be easier mid season once teams know if they are playoff bound or not

Parliament10 wrote:

Spoiler:

I think that Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, essentially switch payscale.
It's going to be tough to re-up Morris, and Rozier.
Yabusele maybe on his way out.

We also have up to 4 x 1st Round Picks, in the 2019 Draft.

Baynes could pick up his option, seems to like Boston, worse case we use MLE on him since we're going to be tax payers anyways. Agree with Kyrie/Horford switching payscsles, maybe even less money for Horford.

I think we match a reasonable offer sheet for Theis he could be making 5-8 million per, I think we match a 4 year 20/25$M deal.

Rozier gone if we lose the finals, if not maybe he stays as insurance to Kyrie injury woes.

Morris: I don't care.

Draft picks, could be consolidated for a big name allstar.

Really this question starts with Kyrie. Most seem to take him as a given, but there's got to be at least some question.

Kyrie re-signs. Morris will be gone. Rozier will be gone unless he takes a pretty big discount. Theis' status depends on Williams. If Williams shows something this year, Ainge might let Theis walk. More than likely, though, Williams will spend most of the season in Maine and will only get a cameo with the Celtics here and there in blowouts. So, Theis probably comes back on a one-year deal or a 1+1.

Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Robert Williams.

PG: Kyrie Irving; SG: Jaylen Brown; SF: Gordon Hayward; PF: Jayson Tatum; C: Al Horford

Tatum really a pf? This seems like a small line-up with some position duplication, esp against the warriors they could get bullied. I can’t imagine C’s trading any current starter.

PG: Stephen Curry; SG: Klay Thompson; SF: Kevin Durant; PF: Draymond Green; C: Boogie Cousins


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Morris goes. More money and/or bigger role elsewhere. I think he'll link back up with his brother somewhere.

Either Baynes or Theis goes. There is so much money available next summer and bigs always get paid.

Rozier goes. This is assuming Kyrie stays. More money and/or bigger role elsewhere. If Kyrie goes, then Rozier stays.

Wanamaker probably gets replaced by another 3rd guard flyer.

I think the team declines Yabusele's 3rd year TO. No need to spend the extra money for a guy who is probably never cracking the main rotation.

I'm thinking that, we largely Keep Everyone, as we did this past offseason. Going well over the Cap.
Especially when and if we win the Championship.