2019 NBA draft

[jmr07019]

Who cares? He's not going to be a Celtic.

Everyone but you

[FlatearthZorro]

Would love to get another big man prospect in this draft with 1 of our million first rounders or move down and get one- Bol Bol(as a project), Goga Bitadze, Naz Reid...

[jcappy]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

[bucknersrevenge]

Really impressed with Cam Johnson last night in the Duke game. Probably a late first or early 2nd rounder but great build. Great body. Excellent shooter. Good at closing out on defenders. Definitely can be a solid player in the league.

[sully00]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

[Homerclease]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Ehh I’m not so sure on this one Sully.

Zion is having arguably the greatest college season for a freshman in history and he’s doing it at Duke, not some mid major running up stats against a line of tomato cans. I agree with your point about Ja being more of a fit for the Suns though. If they win the lottery I could see them moving off Zion for Ja and a kings ransom to do it

[truth18]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Whether it is an accurate assessment or not, Zion seems to have become one of those prospects that comes along every number of years that is considered a must pick league wide. Whether it's right or wrong, not picking Zion could potentially lose you your job as a GM in a way that the same mistake in the draft last year would not. Zion seems much more like a Lebron/Oden type of pick than a Rose type.

This is all to say that I think the Suns might draft him regardless or attempt to move the pick in the case they truly didn't want him.

[sully00]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Ehh I’m not so sure on this one Sully.

Zion is having arguably the greatest college season for a freshman in history and he’s doing it at Duke, not some mid major running up stats against a line of tomato cans. I agree with your point about Ja being more of a fit for the Suns though. If they win the lottery I could see them moving off Zion for Ja and a kings ransom to do it

23.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 4.0 Ast 45%/33%/69% Barrett
21.6 Pts, 8.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast 68%/29%/67% Williamson

Same team. Maybe NBA scouts come out and say that this guy is this once in a lifetime player but I have my doubts. FG% is great and he blocks some shots but his stat line isn't that different than other big time major program prospects. We just tend to get caught up in what we see most recently as the greatest.

[Homerclease]

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Ehh I’m not so sure on this one Sully.

Zion is having arguably the greatest college season for a freshman in history and he’s doing it at Duke, not some mid major running up stats against a line of tomato cans. I agree with your point about Ja being more of a fit for the Suns though. If they win the lottery I could see them moving off Zion for Ja and a kings ransom to do it

23.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 4.0 Ast 45%/33%/69% Barrett
21.6 Pts, 8.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast 68%/29%/67% Williamson

Same team. Maybe NBA scouts come out and say that this guy is this once in a lifetime player but I have my doubts. FG% is great and he blocks some shots but his stat line isn't that different than other big time major program prospects. We just tend to get caught up in what we see most recently as the greatest.

I’m not a big advanced stats guy but Zion has been rocking a PER up near the 30’s. He’s been leaps and bounds ahead of the field

[truth18]

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Ehh I’m not so sure on this one Sully.

Zion is having arguably the greatest college season for a freshman in history and he’s doing it at Duke, not some mid major running up stats against a line of tomato cans. I agree with your point about Ja being more of a fit for the Suns though. If they win the lottery I could see them moving off Zion for Ja and a kings ransom to do it

23.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 4.0 Ast 45%/33%/69% Barrett
21.6 Pts, 8.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast 68%/29%/67% Williamson

Same team. Maybe NBA scouts come out and say that this guy is this once in a lifetime player but I have my doubts. FG% is great and he blocks some shots but his stat line isn't that different than other big time major program prospects. We just tend to get caught up in what we see most recently as the greatest.

Regardless of my above points on the issue from a business/FO/drafting standpoint, I am glad you are saying this. I don't follow college basketball that closely at all (years we had the Nets pick were the closest I have followed) but I see some issues in Zion's game translating to the NBA with a bunch of scrubs around him. The dude is clearly incredible but the hype levels are currently outrageous and I don't think they will come down by draft day.

[sully00]

It seems like the Zion discussion in previous pages would have fit better if it was about his injury's effect on the draft--or about his Nike shoes exploding under him. As opposed to a long general discussion about how good he is, which comes up here and there all the time. What if the MRI shows more damage than expected? Does this enter into say the Knick's pick--if only a little. And does the vaunted number one pick become a little less certain?

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Whether it is an accurate assessment or not, Zion seems to have become one of those prospects that comes along every number of years that is considered a must pick league wide. Whether it's right or wrong, not picking Zion could potentially lose you your job as a GM in a way that the same mistake in the draft last year would not. Zion seems much more like a Lebron/Oden type of pick than a Rose type.

This is all to say that I think the Suns might draft him regardless or attempt to move the pick in the case they truly didn't want him.

No way, Williamson was the #4 prospect in this class not #1 with a bullet like Lebron and this class isn't that special. People like to watch the man dunk but that is for show. I liked Williamson before the season when everyone thought he was another Big Baby but he is still 6'7". The only tweener forward to go #1 in a while was Anthony Bennett and that didn't go so well. Going back some your looking at Larry Johnson.

Maybe NBA scouts come out and say he is this generational player but my guess is they are going to say he is going to struggle defensively in the NBA and his bully ball game will be suspect against NBA athletes. Conversely Barrett is going to look a 20 ppg ten time All Star.

[truth18]

I think the idea that he is a lock for the number one pick is uncertain. RJ Barrett is a better player and better fit for the league even if he doesn't make the high light reel he was also the higher prospect. You may be able to move but I could see a team like PHX targeting the Ja Morant in the draft as well. Once the season ends and NBA people can start to express how they feel about players more it becomes clearer right now your getting what former players watching games on TV are saying.

Whether it is an accurate assessment or not, Zion seems to have become one of those prospects that comes along every number of years that is considered a must pick league wide. Whether it's right or wrong, not picking Zion could potentially lose you your job as a GM in a way that the same mistake in the draft last year would not. Zion seems much more like a Lebron/Oden type of pick than a Rose type.

This is all to say that I think the Suns might draft him regardless or attempt to move the pick in the case they truly didn't want him.

No way, Williamson was the #4 prospect in this class not #1 with a bullet like Lebron and this class isn't that special. People like to watch the man dunk but that is for show. I liked Williamson before the season when everyone thought he was another Big Baby but he is still 6'7". The only tweener forward to go #1 in a while was Anthony Bennett and that didn't go so well. Going back some your looking at Larry Johnson.

Maybe NBA scouts come out and say he is this generational player but my guess is they are going to say he is going to struggle defensively in the NBA and his bully ball game will be suspect against NBA athletes. Conversely Barrett is going to look a 20 ppg ten time All Star.

Yeah, it's weird because I largely agree with you but as I don't follow college basketball that closely, I tend to buy into the media narrative more than I should.

I'm just wondering what the strength of that narrative is in this draft. It seems like you are saying it's weaker than I think with your Suns comments but the way everything is being portrayed to me by the media/friends of mine who do watch college basketball, is that you have to take him at #1 regardless of fit.

Either way, I don't think he's a generational talent like Lebron on court. The numbers seem inflated to me and as you said, he's a tweener. How often do they work out the way you think they would?

[sully00]

Ehh I’m not so sure on this one Sully.

Zion is having arguably the greatest college season for a freshman in history and he’s doing it at Duke, not some mid major running up stats against a line of tomato cans. I agree with your point about Ja being more of a fit for the Suns though. If they win the lottery I could see them moving off Zion for Ja and a kings ransom to do it

23.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 4.0 Ast 45%/33%/69% Barrett
21.6 Pts, 8.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast 68%/29%/67% Williamson

Same team. Maybe NBA scouts come out and say that this guy is this once in a lifetime player but I have my doubts. FG% is great and he blocks some shots but his stat line isn't that different than other big time major program prospects. We just tend to get caught up in what we see most recently as the greatest.

I’m not a big advanced stats guy but Zion has been rocking a PER up near the 30’s. He’s been leaps and bounds ahead of the field

Absolutely in the 40's actually. I am not diminishing his play he has been dominant I am talking about what it looks like in the NBA and the fact that Barrett has been terrific as well. He is grabbing a crazy number of steals and blocked shots does that translate to the NBA? Is he going to be able to dunk all over people in the NBA? If not what else can he do?

[truth18]

Also (this seems like the best place to post this), Nike stock slipped earlier today. I used to love Nike's products from a quality perspective but something has really changed over the past five years. I was not surprised at all to see what happened to Zion having bought simple Nike trainer shirts that rip after one use. I hope this unfortunate incident actually makes them take a look at their quality control because something went wrong years back. Nike used to be my go-to for quality/strength of fabric but now I just buy anything else.

[sully00]

Whether it is an accurate assessment or not, Zion seems to have become one of those prospects that comes along every number of years that is considered a must pick league wide. Whether it's right or wrong, not picking Zion could potentially lose you your job as a GM in a way that the same mistake in the draft last year would not. Zion seems much more like a Lebron/Oden type of pick than a Rose type.

This is all to say that I think the Suns might draft him regardless or attempt to move the pick in the case they truly didn't want him.

No way, Williamson was the #4 prospect in this class not #1 with a bullet like Lebron and this class isn't that special. People like to watch the man dunk but that is for show. I liked Williamson before the season when everyone thought he was another Big Baby but he is still 6'7". The only tweener forward to go #1 in a while was Anthony Bennett and that didn't go so well. Going back some your looking at Larry Johnson.

Maybe NBA scouts come out and say he is this generational player but my guess is they are going to say he is going to struggle defensively in the NBA and his bully ball game will be suspect against NBA athletes. Conversely Barrett is going to look a 20 ppg ten time All Star.

Yeah, it's weird because I largely agree with you but as I don't follow college basketball that closely, I tend to buy into the media narrative more than I should.

I'm just wondering what the strength of that narrative is in this draft. It seems like you are saying it's weaker than I think with your Suns comments but the way everything is being portrayed to me by the media/friends of mine who do watch college basketball, is that you have to take him at #1 regardless of fit.

Either way, I don't think he's a generational talent like Lebron on court. The numbers seem inflated to me and as you said, he's a tweener. How often do they work out the way you think they would?

But these people said the same thing about Market Fultz. Hype is hype. Duke is going to have plenty of big games left on the schedule to play.

There are plenty of ways to value a draft and hindsight is the best. But one thing to look at these days who is going at the top of the draft. Last year the first 9 pick were freshman and one international teenager and I think it was 12 out of 15 were freshman. Just looking at NBADraft.net they are predicting 6 of the first 10 picks are sophomores or juniors.

[jcappy]

Also (this seems like the best place to post this), Nike stock slipped earlier today. I used to love Nike's products from a quality perspective but something has really changed over the past five years. I was not surprised at all to see what happened to Zion having bought simple Nike trainer shirts that rip after one use. I hope this unfortunate incident actually makes them take a look at their quality control because something went wrong years back. Nike used to be my go-to for quality/strength of fabric but now I just buy anything else.

A real embarrassment for Nike, because the thousands of elites (ticket prices equaled or surpassed the Superbowl) came from all over the country to see him in this historic match-up with North Carolina. And 30 seconds into the game, his Nike shoe blows up, and he's gone from the game.

Despite the light sprain, many are advising Zion to stay out for the rest of the season. He won't, but sprains do not vanish all that easily.

[threrf23]

Also (this seems like the best place to post this), Nike stock slipped earlier today. I used to love Nike's products from a quality perspective but something has really changed over the past five years. I was not surprised at all to see what happened to Zion having bought simple Nike trainer shirts that rip after one use. I hope this unfortunate incident actually makes them take a look at their quality control because something went wrong years back. Nike used to be my go-to for quality/strength of fabric but now I just buy anything else.

I've never been much of an athlete, but if I were rich I'd buy myself a new pair of iDs every other week.

But I've kinda noticed the same thing over the past several years (talking shoes). I don't know if quality is declining or I haven't been spending enough. There has always been a difference between cheap Nikes and the more expensive ones and it's tough to accurately account for inflation.

A little more than a year ago I paid $150 for a pair of Zoom Pegasus iDs. They've been solid, although I switched out the insoles from an old pair of Nikes and I needed to use super glue on one of the outsoles after a few months.

My pet peeve regarding every pair of Nikes I've bought in recent years, has to do with the Ortho-Lite branded insoles. They all kind of suck, and it's tough to find good, long lasting insoles at the drug store. I have insoles from heavily worn 5+ year old Nikes lying around that represent a nice improvement.

The 'Free' insoles are probably the best of the bunch, but they suck at absorbing odor and sweat so you need to wear socks to prevent the shoe from stinking. And that sucks, because the Frees are much better without socks IMO.

[williambh3]

They are totally different players but Durant is an interesting comparison statistically. He had one of the best freshman seasons ever. And per 40, Zion has more pts, rebs, asts, stls, and blks. He also has 70.5% ts% vs. Durant’s 58.7%.

It’s not just the dunks, it’s the insane athleticism + insane production.

[sully00]

They are totally different players but Durant is an interesting comparison statistically. He had one of the best freshman seasons ever. And per 40, Zion has more pts, rebs, asts, stls, and blks. He also has 70.5% ts% vs. Durant’s 58.7%.

It’s not just the dunks, it’s the insane athleticism + insane production.

But I am not sure it is insane athleticism, it is insane athleticism in a guy of his size and build. This is the stuff that the scouts will flesh out. While the ACC is a great basketball league it is actually great because it functions more like a mid majors than other D1 programs. They marry blue chip recruits with guys who are just below NBA talents and who end up staying 4 years. They are not trying to chase 5 top 50 freshman every year and telling them they are going to start play 30 mpg.

I like Williamson and if at the end of the process no doubts are raised about his ability at the next level that he is in fact another Larry Johnson then great. I am just not amazed at him dominating the ACC Tyler Hansborough dominated the ACC for 4 years didn't we just do this with Jahilil Okafor? How he was going to dominate offensively for a decade in the NBA?

Even with all of that said I am really only talking about him going to #2 behind his teammate who is also dominating the ACC as a Freshman. I just feel like if he was playing at a program not name Duke or UNC then the hype would be turned down a bit.

[williambh3]

They are totally different players but Durant is an interesting comparison statistically. He had one of the best freshman seasons ever. And per 40, Zion has more pts, rebs, asts, stls, and blks. He also has 70.5% ts% vs. Durant’s 58.7%.

It’s not just the dunks, it’s the insane athleticism + insane production.

But I am not sure it is insane athleticism, it is insane athleticism in a guy of his size and build. This is the stuff that the scouts will flesh out. While the ACC is a great basketball league it is actually great because it functions more like a mid majors than other D1 programs. They marry blue chip recruits with guys who are just below NBA talents and who end up staying 4 years. They are not trying to chase 5 top 50 freshman every year and telling them they are going to start play 30 mpg.

I like Williamson and if at the end of the process no doubts are raised about his ability at the next level that he is in fact another Larry Johnson then great. I am just not amazed at him dominating the ACC Tyler Hansborough dominated the ACC for 4 years didn't we just do this with Jahilil Okafor? How he was going to dominate offensively for a decade in the NBA?

Even with all of that said I am really only talking about him going to #2 behind his teammate who is also dominating the ACC as a Freshman. I just feel like if he was playing at a program not name Duke or UNC then the hype would be turned down a bit.

His teammate can’t even score efficiently at the college level and hasn’t had near the defensive impact. It’s not going to happen