Slartibartfast wrote:sam_I_am wrote:Slartibartfast wrote:If Tatum is going to make a scoring leap this year, it will be covered in the blood of Gordon Hayward. Sorta like clearing away Ron Mercer to allow Pierce to rise.
I think if Morris’ 11 and some of Al’s 11 shots per game are divided between Hayward, Brown and Tatum, it is possible that Kemba gets 17 shots per game like IT/Kyrie, Tatum gets 16, Hayward and Brown 10-12. With 3 more shots Tatum breaks 20 ppg barrier and with 4 more shots Hayward gets 15 ppg and should be happy with role and will want to opt in.
I think where Hayward gets squeezed is if he needs to get moved for Brown to get touches.
Usage is the better metric than shots because of FTs/turnovers using up possessions.
Kyrie and IT were ~30% usage guys. Kemba is too.
Jaylen and Tatum were identical at 22%. Hayward was at 19%, a whopping 9% below his final all-star year at Utah.
Each of those guys is likely to want to be at the 25%-26% usage that Klay, Beal, Middleton and McCollum get. Basically the minimum you need to make an all-star team as an offensive wing barring spectacular team success (like the Atlanta team a few years ago that made Korver an all-star).
The two big chunks of offense that have opened up - Al (19% usage) and Morris (21% usage) - offer some hope for being able to give everybody a bump, but two big caveats there. First, Kanter is a 3rd option usage guy and always has been at ~23%. He's going to eat up more possessions than Al, who was not only low volume as a shooter but exceptionally good at getting other guys shots.
That leaves Morris. But I think Morris' role is going to be almost entirely eaten up by Gordon Hayward (in terms of increased usage and minutes) and JB (increased minutes). Those are going to be the hungriest mouths, I think, with Jaylen hitting RFA and Hayward in an opt-out year.
There is some possibility that Hayward defers/declines his way into the Al Horford role (minus the post-ups), working mainly as a floor spacer and facilitator, but I'm skeptical. If he's trying to return to his norm, that's a clear-cut 2nd option, not a Boris Diaw/Mike Miller. The difference between aiming for another max and slouching towards an MLE for his next contract.
My prediction is that Brad tries to feature Hayward significantly more this season, in part to maximize his offensive value when he'll be playing out of position defensively and in part to pay him back for the financial sacrifice he made to come to Boston. And I think Danny will be cheering all the way to trading him at the deadline.
At which point, the 2nd option usage will be all Tatum's.
It is mathematically pretty tough to give all 5 starters about 25% usage.
