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General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2

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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1521 » by Bleeding Green » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:47 pm

Cam Newton's athleticism won him an MVP and got him to the Super Bowl in his prime. Of course now that his shoulder is destroyed and he can't make basic throws, he's a below average QB, but he'd fully retired if he weren't still an incredible athlete.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1522 » by 31to6 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:50 pm

Yeah Cam's shoulder injury surprises in how much it flies under the radar.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1523 » by jmr07019 » Sat May 1, 2021 4:54 am

soxfan2003 wrote:
jmr07019 wrote:Didn’t want Jones. There hasn't been any QB this unathletic drafted in the last 5 years who has succeeded. I know it worked for Brady but he’s a once in a lifetime player. Gotta change with the times. The fact that Fields was easily attainable makes it that much worse. Oh well. Nothing left to do but root for the kid.


Check out all of the Super Bowl winners in the past 25+ years. . Most of them have been fairly slow in the years in which they won Super Bowls. It is the truly fast strong running athletic quarterbacks that have barely ever won it.

Baker Mayfield is a bad call from arguably appearing in the Super Bowl this past year. He was drafted in the past 5 years. Mac Jones is taller and even slightly faster than Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield joined a team that had gone 0-16 the prior season so for all of the criticisms Mayfield gets, he has helped turn around the 'browns. Mayfield doesn't have a rocket arm either.

Past 5 Super Bowl winners....

2017 - Brady
2018 Nick Foles
2019 Brady
2020 Mahomes (he joined a perennial playoff team...)
2021 Brady. (proved it wasn't the New England system)

4 out of the 5 last Super Bowl winners much slower than Mac Jones. Mobile QB's have a poor record of actually winning Super Bowls. It will improve since it can only go up with so many faster QB's getting a chance but I suspect more Super Bowls over the next 25-50 years won by relatively immobile pocket passers as a percentage of those QB's in the league than vice-versa.

Ability to run super fast may be a floor raiser in regular season but to win a Super Bowl, you usually have to beat a team or two that can largely contain your running ability. If you are beating up on bad/mediocre defenses with your legs, sometimes you don't know what hit you when you face a great defense that can mostly take that away. This really happened to Mahomes in both Super Bowls. For all of his great arm talent and very good athleticism, he was fortunate to win one of them.

Outside of great arm talent, Mahomes himself is actually a mediocre athlete compared to most NFL defenders. I may be missing a few players but outside of Mike Vick, Steve Young, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson and a few others -- nearly all of these quarterbacks of the the past 25 years would struggle to play in the NFL at a position other than quarterback. I doubt Mahomes could make it as an NFL safety or linebacker -- his combination of speed/strength doesn't appear to be nearly good enough. As Brady himself has implied, QB is a position in football where general athleticism is insanely overrated. Brady himself probably couldn't have played anywhere on defense at the college D1 level. Tiger Woods and Jack Nicholson are two better golfers in history. There are tens of thousands of golfers worldwide that can out run those two golfers. I maintain playing QB is more equivalent to playing a fast paced game golf where someone is messing with the ball position a bit than it is to playing tennis, a sport where some very good athleticism and truly great conditioning is a requirement. Golf is about performing under pressure while tennis for the most part is a lot less about dealing with the pressure.

As long as he can stay healthy and takes his craft seriously, I like Mac Jones odds of success. Would I like him 1-2 inches taller and with a moderately stronger arm? Sure. I would much rather have that than a .2 upgrade in the 40.


You make a lot of good points but who do you expect to win the super bowls moving forward. I would bet Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson will win a decent amount. Perhaps as much as 50% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won more than that. That’s not taking into account Watson, Jackson and Buffalo qb (who admittedly isn’t super mobile but he’s much better than Mac).

I just think that’s the way the game is going. Not saying you can’t win with a pocket guy but it makes it harder. I realize I’m betting against history here but some of these mobile qbs are leaps and bounds better from the pocket than the mobile qbs of the past.

Lastly on a slightly different topic qb is not a position where I’m looking for value. I’m happy to pay a premium for the premium talent. Granted it’s still a roll of the dice
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1524 » by moonie_mcgee » Sat May 1, 2021 5:47 am

I'm liking this draft in a big way.
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Gotta read up for wkend picks.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1525 » by ParticleMan » Sat May 1, 2021 8:16 am

everyone has been saying for years how the athletic QBs are the future, all the way back to randall cunningham. cam newton was among the most successful, now mahomes. but long-term success is really hard for those types of QBs. a nontrivial factor is injuries, guys like that don't tend to stay healthy long term. meanwhile more classic dropback guys have dominated for years.

things like quick decision making, a quick release, and good peripheral vision are not usually put in the athleticism category, but for the QB position, they are as important as anything else.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1526 » by cl2117 » Sat May 1, 2021 9:01 am

I'm not excited about Mac Jones, but I'm happy with the pick.

I was really praying Fields dropped to us/Bill went up to get him when he slid. I got hyped on the idea of what McDaniels could cook up with Cam at the helm, so keeping in that direction and adding a younger dynamic dual threat QB felt like it would have been the ultimate draft steal for us. The concerns on Fields shock me having watched a good bit of him, can't see what dropped him from presumptive #2 to QB4 and the #11 pick. It cost an arm and a leg for Chicago to go up and get him, but I still think it'd have been worthwhile. Gives me Deshaun Watson vibes.

That being said Mac dropping to us at #15 is nothing to scoff at. My only issue with him is that he doesn't have that elite athleticism that you know will translate to the next level. He's not a dual threat, not a scrambler, doesn't have a cannon for an arm, he's got good size but it's not incredible for a pocket guy. He does have good accuracy/decision making, which will obviously translate, but feels like he's got to be otherworldly in those aspects of his game or have an Alabama-esque supporting cast to really be a star.

Think it's Cam's team this season unless he really underperforms and we have a losing record mid-way through. Mac might get a shot or two in the interim if Cam is having a truly bad performance and maybe success in that will speed that along, but I'm all for sitting him for a year. I know reps are the best way to get better, but think there is real value in letting a guy learn for a year. Pats don't necessarily need him to be a superstar with the defense they're putting together, game manager could do just fine and I see Mac being ready next year.

Love the defensive picksups in rounds 2 and 3. I know it's a lot to give up to move up in round 2, but both guys seemed like they were ranked as BPA when the picks was made. Given some of our struggles in recent years with the draft, I like that approach.

Feels like Bill's gearing up to go back towards a run heavy/stingy defense mode. Control the middle of the field with those TE's offensively and control the clock. That would really suit a young game manager QB and then as we get more weapons/he develops there's potential to open it up into something more.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1527 » by soxfan2003 » Sat May 1, 2021 5:16 pm

jmr07019 wrote:
soxfan2003 wrote:
jmr07019 wrote:Didn’t want Jones. There hasn't been any QB this unathletic drafted in the last 5 years who has succeeded. I know it worked for Brady but he’s a once in a lifetime player. Gotta change with the times. The fact that Fields was easily attainable makes it that much worse. Oh well. Nothing left to do but root for the kid.


Check out all of the Super Bowl winners in the past 25+ years. . Most of them have been fairly slow in the years in which they won Super Bowls. It is the truly fast strong running athletic quarterbacks that have barely ever won it.

Baker Mayfield is a bad call from arguably appearing in the Super Bowl this past year. He was drafted in the past 5 years. Mac Jones is taller and even slightly faster than Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield joined a team that had gone 0-16 the prior season so for all of the criticisms Mayfield gets, he has helped turn around the 'browns. Mayfield doesn't have a rocket arm either.

Past 5 Super Bowl winners....

2017 - Brady
2018 Nick Foles
2019 Brady
2020 Mahomes (he joined a perennial playoff team...)
2021 Brady. (proved it wasn't the New England system)

4 out of the 5 last Super Bowl winners much slower than Mac Jones. Mobile QB's have a poor record of actually winning Super Bowls. It will improve since it can only go up with so many faster QB's getting a chance but I suspect more Super Bowls over the next 25-50 years won by relatively immobile pocket passers as a percentage of those QB's in the league than vice-versa.

Ability to run super fast may be a floor raiser in regular season but to win a Super Bowl, you usually have to beat a team or two that can largely contain your running ability. If you are beating up on bad/mediocre defenses with your legs, sometimes you don't know what hit you when you face a great defense that can mostly take that away. This really happened to Mahomes in both Super Bowls. For all of his great arm talent and very good athleticism, he was fortunate to win one of them.

Outside of great arm talent, Mahomes himself is actually a mediocre athlete compared to most NFL defenders. I may be missing a few players but outside of Mike Vick, Steve Young, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson and a few others -- nearly all of these quarterbacks of the the past 25 years would struggle to play in the NFL at a position other than quarterback. I doubt Mahomes could make it as an NFL safety or linebacker -- his combination of speed/strength doesn't appear to be nearly good enough. As Brady himself has implied, QB is a position in football where general athleticism is insanely overrated. Brady himself probably couldn't have played anywhere on defense at the college D1 level. Tiger Woods and Jack Nicholson are two better golfers in history. There are tens of thousands of golfers worldwide that can out run those two golfers. I maintain playing QB is more equivalent to playing a fast paced game golf where someone is messing with the ball position a bit than it is to playing tennis, a sport where some very good athleticism and truly great conditioning is a requirement. Golf is about performing under pressure while tennis for the most part is a lot less about dealing with the pressure.

As long as he can stay healthy and takes his craft seriously, I like Mac Jones odds of success. Would I like him 1-2 inches taller and with a moderately stronger arm? Sure. I would much rather have that than a .2 upgrade in the 40.


You make a lot of good points but who do you expect to win the super bowls moving forward. I would bet Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson will win a decent amount. Perhaps as much as 50% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won more than that. That’s not taking into account Watson, Jackson and Buffalo qb (who admittedly isn’t super mobile but he’s much better than Mac).

I just think that’s the way the game is going. Not saying you can’t win with a pocket guy but it makes it harder. I realize I’m betting against history here but some of these mobile qbs are leaps and bounds better from the pocket than the mobile qbs of the past.

Lastly on a slightly different topic qb is not a position where I’m looking for value. I’m happy to pay a premium for the premium talent. Granted it’s still a roll of the dice


QB's that don't pick up many yards on the ground I expect to win 25+ out of the next 40 Super Bowls. I will define pocket passers as QB's in a normal 16 game season ran for less than 300 yards. Now I think its fair to adjust it up to 315 yards given the new 17 game season.

The data and past results just heavily favors pocket passers or at least qb's that don't run much. Just look at list of Super Bowl winners over the last 40 years. Only 2 of them ran for more than 300 yards in the regular season in which they won the Super Bowl.

38 > 2 or 36>4 if one is being charitable....
The 2 Super Bowl winning QB's that won while running for 300+ yards in regular season were Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. To be fair I will add in Steve Young since he still had speed/running ability in the year in which he won it despite running for moderately less than 300 yards that particular season. Mahomes in the year in which KC won it, ran for 218 yards in the regular season in 14 games. Mahomes did run for moderately more yards per game, the year before and this past season. Mahomes running ability IMO is overrated but I will include him since despite never running for a lot of yards, at times he does scramble a lot.

Good to great chance if Mahomes, Josh Allen, Rodgers win a Super Bowl/another Super Bowl, they will do so with running no longer a big part of their game. I gave Mahomes the benefit of the doubt for 2019 but I fully expect him to be using his legs less as he ages and KC tries to keep him healthy. Those designed running plays for him are nearing an end. Many Chiefs fans were blasting Reid when Mahomes had a design run play for him in which he almost got concussed and had to leave the game. He also plans to scramble less and Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line.

Mac Jones could probably easily beat Aaron Rodgers, given his wear and tear and age, in the 40 right now. Rodgers ran a 4.71 in the combine when he was young and hadn't gotten beat up by NFL. He was once a bit of a running threat and I have him listed as one of the Super Bowl winning QB's that won it as a legit running threat.

But this past year, Rodgers in his recent MVP season ran for less than 150 yards and obviously didn't try to run it in vs Tampa. The year before that in another NFC championship appearance, he ran for a little less than 200 yards during the regular season. In his Super Bowl winning season, he was faster/more of a running threat at 356 yards rushing for the season which was close to his career high.

So who are possibilities to win Super Bowls in near future/future while running for less than 315 yards in that season in no particular order other than concentrating on Patriots first.


Mac Jones. -- I'd bet on Patriots right now to win another championship before the Celtics. I do expect Cam to start this year.
Tom Brady -- I won't bet against him getting #8 before he retires.
Aaron Rodgers -- came close this past year. Yes he still buys time in the pocket by moving around but he isn't running much at all anymore. The yardage shows he barely runs anymore.
Patrick Mahomes -- given how long he will probably play....he is going to have a chance to win more super bowls as a QB that doesn't run much than as a runner or big time scrambler. He has short area quickness right now but he isn't truly fast even in his mid 20's, He obviously just throws really well moving backwards/on the move but even Mahomes has all but said bailing out of the pocket early may have hurt his team in Super Bowl.
Jameis Winston -- Winston winning it all would not shock me....yes 30 interceptions in a single year but he has had some good years and may be improved with New Orleans coaching and learning from Brees and learning what Brady did with some of his ex teammates. Maybe he is out of the league in 3-4 years but the size and arm strength is there,
Josh Allen -- he is still a runner right now but as he is learning the position he is running less and less each year. I doubt the Bills will want him running too much after his rookie contract. 631 yards to 510, to now 421 in his best year throwing the ball. Would not surprise me if/when Allen wins it, it is in a year in which he runs for less than 250 yards in a 17 game season.
Matt Stafford -- Rams may not have great offense but if healthy their defense is very good.
Dak Prescott -- expect him to run less given he is getting a little older plus the injury. Cowboys have to improve their defense
Jimmy G -- would surprise me but not shock me. Has already made a Super Bowl
Burrow -- Bengals have a long way to go but he did well as a rookie.
Mayfield -- almost made super bowl
Trevor Lawrence -- after his first 1-2 years, I don't expect him to run that much.
Tua Tagovailoa -- not completely sold on him but Miami has done a decent job building their team and collecting picks.
Zach Wilson -- Jets long way off but some say he has best arm in this years draft.
Justin Herbert -- ran for under 250 yards. A little faster than Jones but not that much faster. I doubt he runs much as he ages.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1528 » by soxfan2003 » Sun May 2, 2021 1:05 am

threrf23 wrote:I wanted Lance. At 19 years old - 28 passing TDs, 0 INTs, 1100 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs, 16-0 team record. Only one season, but man is that a season.

Mac Jones put up some impressive numbers last year, but it's relatively easy for a fourth year guy to look good starting for Alabama and playing with a premiere WR. That's not to say I'm down on him or feel I can accurately evaluate him, just that I don't think he was the no brainer that Lance was.


Maybe Jones doesn't work out but I see Jones given where he was selected and the draft capital it took to get him as being one of the biggest no brainers of the first round. If the Niners traded away a future 2nd rounder or a 2nd rounder this year if they had one to move up to around 8 to select Lance, I wouldn't question their move nearly as much.

Lance is a huge gamble by the Niners and they made a blunder trading all the way up to 3 to get Lance since I would have been surprised if their was another NFL team that would have taken him in the top 5 or 6. If Fields stock didn't drop, he appeared to be the player that made the most sense to trade up for since at least Fields had been a highly rated QB for a long time and he has been tested. Not saying Lance won't quickly develop into a superstar QB but he played on a team that has dominated FCS football for a long time. North Dakota State has won 8 out the last 9 FCS championships. That is dominance at that lower level that even Alabama hasn't had at a much higher level.

Just watching the Lance highlights, the level of competition he was facing needs to be considered a lot when evaluating his running ability. He is clearly a fast runner with ability to make some quick cuts for his size-- his trainer says he times him in the mid 4.5s-- but he has many runs of almost effortlessly bouncing off of defenders or overpowering defenders and that just is not going to happen as much in the NFL in all likelihood. His running ability will be an asset but he will have to more judicious in trying to bounce off of NFL linebackers or he really risks injury. Big time difference in trying to overpower a starting NFL linebacker vs some kid that in most cases couldn't even play FBS football.

There are some examples of him throwing into tight windows but for the most part his receivers are wide open. He played on a team that runs the ball a lot and made a lot of one read throws so the NFL will be a bit of adjustment even if playing for the 49ers will ease that adjustment.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1529 » by threrf23 » Sun May 2, 2021 3:46 am

soxfan2003 wrote:
Maybe Jones doesn't work out but I see Jones given where he was selected and the draft capital it took to get him as being one of the biggest no brainers of the first round. If the Niners traded away a future 2nd rounder or a 2nd rounder this year if they had one to move up to around 8 to select Lance, I wouldn't question their move nearly as much.


The thing is, most QBs who are considered top 5 ish picks, like Jones, usually don't have great NFL careers. It's not enough to be considered one of the best QBs on the board to be a no brainer.

Not saying Lance won't quickly develop into a superstar QB but he played on a team that has dominated FCS football for a long time. North Dakota State has won 8 out the last 9 FCS championships. That is dominance at that lower level that even Alabama hasn't had at a much higher level.


Okay, good addition I wasn't even aware of the extent of NDSU's dominance, but Lance still had an outlier season, as a redshirt freshman. Past NDSU QBs haven't matched his performance. Carson Wentz, as an upperclassman, completed fewer passes (percentage wise), threw for fewer yards per completion, threw fewer TD passes, and threw interceptions (and ended up a top draft pick). The year before Lance took over, 23 y/o Easton Stick threw for fewer yards (in one fewer games), completed a lower percentage of passes, threw for the same number of TDs but also threw seven INTs (and ended up in the NFL.

The open receivers Lance dealt with were not as good as the open receivers that Mac was able to throw to when applicable. Alabama regularly produces draft picks - not just Jalen Hurts & Tua but also AJ McCarron (good game manager, at least comparable to mac Jones IMO at Alabama) and Greg McElroy (front runner who should have never been drafted).

If Lance can run, that's just extra. I don't want to say he is comparable to Lamar Jackson, but as a prospect he reminds me of Lamar Jackson just in the sense that IMO you can glance at his collegiate production at a young age, and in lieu of red flags it doesn't make good sense to overthink it.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1530 » by ParticleMan » Sun May 2, 2021 10:50 am

i think GMs see guys like mahomes and lamar and all their spectacular plays and think man, i gotta get me one of those. but belichick worries less about spectacular and more about winning. it's great when a QB can run like a RB, but frankly it's better to have a great RB who runs and a great thrower who throws, instead of having a QB who isn't that great at either try to do both.

it's kind of like antoine walker syndrome, toine was a special talent because at 6-9 he could handle the rock and shoot the 3, but he wasn't that great at either. coaches like obie tried to build around those skills but never got close to a title because the fact is, it's better to have guys who are plus ballhandlers leading the break and plus shooters shoot the 3, instead of having guys do it just because they are 6-9. versatility can be a curse sometimes, and i think football GMs are getting suckered by it.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1531 » by moonie_mcgee » Sun May 2, 2021 2:43 pm

ParticleMan wrote:i think GMs see guys like mahomes and lamar and all their spectacular plays and think man, i gotta get me one of those. but belichick worries less about spectacular and more about winning. it's great when a QB can run like a RB, but frankly it's better to have a great RB who runs and a great thrower who throws, instead of having a QB who isn't that great at either try to do both.

it's kind of like antoine walker syndrome, toine was a special talent because at 6-9 he could handle the rock and shoot the 3, but he wasn't that great at either. coaches like obie tried to build around those skills but never got close to a title because the fact is, it's better to have guys who are plus ballhandlers leading the break and plus shooters shoot the 3, instead of having guys do it just because they are 6-9. versatility can be a curse sometimes, and i think football GMs are getting suckered by it.



My theory is Belichick believe through experience that Superbowls can be won through game manager QBs if backed by a great team. Bradshaw won 4, the Giants won with Sims and Hoff, and 2 with Manning. The Bucs won with what's his name years ago and Brady last year. The Broncos and Eagles won recently too. Whereas Marino never won one, Elway didn't win in his prime, and prime Brady came up short twice. There's many other examples too. Oh and the Chiefs loss showed a kind of blueprint on over coming the all world talent of Mahomes who allbeit - was far from 100% physically IMHO. Of course this take isn't perfect but I'm guessing Belichick is following this theory somewhat.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1532 » by jmr07019 » Sun May 2, 2021 8:02 pm

soxfan2003 wrote:
Spoiler:
jmr07019 wrote:
soxfan2003 wrote:
Check out all of the Super Bowl winners in the past 25+ years. . Most of them have been fairly slow in the years in which they won Super Bowls. It is the truly fast strong running athletic quarterbacks that have barely ever won it.

Baker Mayfield is a bad call from arguably appearing in the Super Bowl this past year. He was drafted in the past 5 years. Mac Jones is taller and even slightly faster than Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield joined a team that had gone 0-16 the prior season so for all of the criticisms Mayfield gets, he has helped turn around the 'browns. Mayfield doesn't have a rocket arm either.

Past 5 Super Bowl winners....

2017 - Brady
2018 Nick Foles
2019 Brady
2020 Mahomes (he joined a perennial playoff team...)
2021 Brady. (proved it wasn't the New England system)

4 out of the 5 last Super Bowl winners much slower than Mac Jones. Mobile QB's have a poor record of actually winning Super Bowls. It will improve since it can only go up with so many faster QB's getting a chance but I suspect more Super Bowls over the next 25-50 years won by relatively immobile pocket passers as a percentage of those QB's in the league than vice-versa.

Ability to run super fast may be a floor raiser in regular season but to win a Super Bowl, you usually have to beat a team or two that can largely contain your running ability. If you are beating up on bad/mediocre defenses with your legs, sometimes you don't know what hit you when you face a great defense that can mostly take that away. This really happened to Mahomes in both Super Bowls. For all of his great arm talent and very good athleticism, he was fortunate to win one of them.

Outside of great arm talent, Mahomes himself is actually a mediocre athlete compared to most NFL defenders. I may be missing a few players but outside of Mike Vick, Steve Young, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson and a few others -- nearly all of these quarterbacks of the the past 25 years would struggle to play in the NFL at a position other than quarterback. I doubt Mahomes could make it as an NFL safety or linebacker -- his combination of speed/strength doesn't appear to be nearly good enough. As Brady himself has implied, QB is a position in football where general athleticism is insanely overrated. Brady himself probably couldn't have played anywhere on defense at the college D1 level. Tiger Woods and Jack Nicholson are two better golfers in history. There are tens of thousands of golfers worldwide that can out run those two golfers. I maintain playing QB is more equivalent to playing a fast paced game golf where someone is messing with the ball position a bit than it is to playing tennis, a sport where some very good athleticism and truly great conditioning is a requirement. Golf is about performing under pressure while tennis for the most part is a lot less about dealing with the pressure.

As long as he can stay healthy and takes his craft seriously, I like Mac Jones odds of success. Would I like him 1-2 inches taller and with a moderately stronger arm? Sure. I would much rather have that than a .2 upgrade in the 40.


You make a lot of good points but who do you expect to win the super bowls moving forward. I would bet Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson will win a decent amount. Perhaps as much as 50% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won more than that. That’s not taking into account Watson, Jackson and Buffalo qb (who admittedly isn’t super mobile but he’s much better than Mac).

I just think that’s the way the game is going. Not saying you can’t win with a pocket guy but it makes it harder. I realize I’m betting against history here but some of these mobile qbs are leaps and bounds better from the pocket than the mobile qbs of the past.

Lastly on a slightly different topic qb is not a position where I’m looking for value. I’m happy to pay a premium for the premium talent. Granted it’s still a roll of the dice


QB's that don't pick up many yards on the ground I expect to win 25+ out of the next 40 Super Bowls. I will define pocket passers as QB's in a normal 16 game season ran for less than 300 yards. Now I think its fair to adjust it up to 315 yards given the new 17 game season.

The data and past results just heavily favors pocket passers or at least qb's that don't run much. Just look at list of Super Bowl winners over the last 40 years. Only 2 of them ran for more than 300 yards in the regular season in which they won the Super Bowl.

38 > 2 or 36>4 if one is being charitable....
The 2 Super Bowl winning QB's that won while running for 300+ yards in regular season were Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. To be fair I will add in Steve Young since he still had speed/running ability in the year in which he won it despite running for moderately less than 300 yards that particular season. Mahomes in the year in which KC won it, ran for 218 yards in the regular season in 14 games. Mahomes did run for moderately more yards per game, the year before and this past season. Mahomes running ability IMO is overrated but I will include him since despite never running for a lot of yards, at times he does scramble a lot.

Good to great chance if Mahomes, Josh Allen, Rodgers win a Super Bowl/another Super Bowl, they will do so with running no longer a big part of their game. I gave Mahomes the benefit of the doubt for 2019 but I fully expect him to be using his legs less as he ages and KC tries to keep him healthy. Those designed running plays for him are nearing an end. Many Chiefs fans were blasting Reid when Mahomes had a design run play for him in which he almost got concussed and had to leave the game. He also plans to scramble less and Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line.

Mac Jones could probably easily beat Aaron Rodgers, given his wear and tear and age, in the 40 right now. Rodgers ran a 4.71 in the combine when he was young and hadn't gotten beat up by NFL. He was once a bit of a running threat and I have him listed as one of the Super Bowl winning QB's that won it as a legit running threat.

But this past year, Rodgers in his recent MVP season ran for less than 150 yards and obviously didn't try to run it in vs Tampa. The year before that in another NFC championship appearance, he ran for a little less than 200 yards during the regular season. In his Super Bowl winning season, he was faster/more of a running threat at 356 yards rushing for the season which was close to his career high.

So who are possibilities to win Super Bowls in near future/future while running for less than 315 yards in that season in no particular order other than concentrating on Patriots first.


Mac Jones. -- I'd bet on Patriots right now to win another championship before the Celtics. I do expect Cam to start this year.
Tom Brady -- I won't bet against him getting #8 before he retires.
Aaron Rodgers -- came close this past year. Yes he still buys time in the pocket by moving around but he isn't running much at all anymore. The yardage shows he barely runs anymore.
Patrick Mahomes -- given how long he will probably play....he is going to have a chance to win more super bowls as a QB that doesn't run much than as a runner or big time scrambler. He has short area quickness right now but he isn't truly fast even in his mid 20's, He obviously just throws really well moving backwards/on the move but even Mahomes has all but said bailing out of the pocket early may have hurt his team in Super Bowl.
Jameis Winston -- Winston winning it all would not shock me....yes 30 interceptions in a single year but he has had some good years and may be improved with New Orleans coaching and learning from Brees and learning what Brady did with some of his ex teammates. Maybe he is out of the league in 3-4 years but the size and arm strength is there,
Josh Allen -- he is still a runner right now but as he is learning the position he is running less and less each year. I doubt the Bills will want him running too much after his rookie contract. 631 yards to 510, to now 421 in his best year throwing the ball. Would not surprise me if/when Allen wins it, it is in a year in which he runs for less than 250 yards in a 17 game season.
Matt Stafford -- Rams may not have great offense but if healthy their defense is very good.
Dak Prescott -- expect him to run less given he is getting a little older plus the injury. Cowboys have to improve their defense
Jimmy G -- would surprise me but not shock me. Has already made a Super Bowl
Burrow -- Bengals have a long way to go but he did well as a rookie.
Mayfield -- almost made super bowl
Trevor Lawrence -- after his first 1-2 years, I don't expect him to run that much.
Tua Tagovailoa -- not completely sold on him but Miami has done a decent job building their team and collecting picks.
Zach Wilson -- Jets long way off but some say he has best arm in this years draft.
Justin Herbert -- ran for under 250 yards. A little faster than Jones but not that much faster. I doubt he runs much as he ages.



Well if we are quantifying Mahomes and Rodgers as pocket passers then I agree pocket passers will continue to dominate but there is a very large gap between how Mahomes plays and how Brady plays. Total running yards is not the best proxy for mobility. Many of the young QBs in the league or coming in now are very good to excellent throwing on the run. I'm not sure if there are stats on that but I imagine Brady looks quite different from Mahomes and Rodgers in that respect.

An interesting stat is first downs from running. Here are some QBs career numbers

Games played / 1st downs running
Rivers - 244 / 74
Peyton - 266 / 85
Rothlisberger - 233 / 141
Brady - 301 / 219
Josh Allen - 44 / 121
Mahomes - 46 / 56
Wilson - 144 / 259
Mayfield - 46 / 41


I'm kind of surprised at how good Brady stacks up to his peers and how few 1st Big Ben ran for. Also surprised how few 1sts Mahomes has rushed for compared to his peers. The older guys seems to be around the .66 1sts per game rushing. There's a pretty clear gap up in running 1st downs for the new guys.

The ability to keep the play alive and make a pass on the run is the most important thing. Running for a 1st down is the next most important thing. The threat of that run also changes how defenses play you. It is tough to play straight man against some of these QBs. If they recognize it the run for a first down is an easy play. If you leave a spy you have taken 1 guy out of coverage making the pass that much easier.
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Re: General Boston Sports Thread, Phase 2 

Post#1533 » by soxfan2003 » Mon May 3, 2021 5:56 am

threrf23 wrote:
soxfan2003 wrote:
Maybe Jones doesn't work out but I see Jones given where he was selected and the draft capital it took to get him as being one of the biggest no brainers of the first round. If the Niners traded away a future 2nd rounder or a 2nd rounder this year if they had one to move up to around 8 to select Lance, I wouldn't question their move nearly as much.


The thing is, most QBs who are considered top 5 ish picks, like Jones, usually don't have great NFL careers. It's not enough to be considered one of the best QBs on the board to be a no brainer.

Not saying Lance won't quickly develop into a superstar QB but he played on a team that has dominated FCS football for a long time. North Dakota State has won 8 out the last 9 FCS championships. That is dominance at that lower level that even Alabama hasn't had at a much higher level.


Okay, good addition I wasn't even aware of the extent of NDSU's dominance, but Lance still had an outlier season, as a redshirt freshman. Past NDSU QBs haven't matched his performance. Carson Wentz, as an upperclassman, completed fewer passes (percentage wise), threw for fewer yards per completion, threw fewer TD passes, and threw interceptions (and ended up a top draft pick). The year before Lance took over, 23 y/o Easton Stick threw for fewer yards (in one fewer games), completed a lower percentage of passes, threw for the same number of TDs but also threw seven INTs (and ended up in the NFL.

The open receivers Lance dealt with were not as good as the open receivers that Mac was able to throw to when applicable. Alabama regularly produces draft picks - not just Jalen Hurts & Tua but also AJ McCarron (good game manager, at least comparable to mac Jones IMO at Alabama) and Greg McElroy (front runner who should have never been drafted).

If Lance can run, that's just extra. I don't want to say he is comparable to Lamar Jackson, but as a prospect he reminds me of Lamar Jackson just in the sense that IMO you can glance at his collegiate production at a young age, and in lieu of red flags it doesn't make good sense to overthink it.


Not saying the player below was as athletic/good for his era as Trey Lance is now -- he wasn't-- but he really did do very well at the same lower level as Lance. Never played a single regular season NFL snap.....


https://gohofstra.com/hof.aspx?hof=12

“This is Scouting 101,” said Mariucci. “Gio was a Rhodes Scholar (candidate), did really well in the Wonderlic (intelligence test). Was a point guard on the basketball team. He was a captain. He was very athletic. He had a very strong arm. He ran a 4.7 40 (yard dash) ... My point is he had all of the measurables academically with intelligence and he had all of the measurables athletically.

That paragraph describes the FCS/Division 1AA QB that the 49ers selected over Bay area born Tom Brady in 2000. They did so in part since they were looking for the next mobile quarterback like a Steve Young.... I know someone that really knows SEC football/college football and told me some stuff that would happen before it happens and he says great chance that history is repeating itself. Not 6 titles vs 0 or not that Lance will never seen an NFL regular season snap but that the difference between Jones/Lance at best is so marginal that it is BRAIN DEAD crazy to value one over the other by 2 first round picks. He did not say those words, he said worse...

Lance just has so few little throws in college and reportedly in high school as well that he is a ridiculous gamble at 3. If he was a running back in the 1980's with just some insane Bo Jackson like production AND measurables it may be a different story but Lance despite being very athletic hasn't demonstrated that. If he had been a really highly rated passer exiting high school like I believe Justin Fields may have been, I would feel as though he is less risky based upon limited throws in one year of FCS college ball.

Lance has the fewest passes of any QB ever drafted in the first round. That is a little scary given those passes where against overmatched competition at a lower level. From what I have read, over 87% of NFL players play at the FBS level and only half of the remainder play at the FCS level.

At the higher level of college football, Lamar Jackson was a Heisman winner and finished in the top 3 another year. I believe history will show just a much more gifted runner which is no crime for Lance since Jackson is a ridiculously gifted runner. Jackson ran the ball incredibly well at a much higher level of college ball than Lance. But how much better Lance is as a passer is still TBD. Jackson certainly faced much tougher competition.

Alabama is the class of the SEC with a ridiculous amount of NFL players but the Crimson Tide players from what I have read actually face more NFL competition than let's say the players from Clemson or Ohio State. Clemson/Ohio State not quite as good as Alabama most years and certainly last year but their competition in their respective conferences usually weaker than what Alabama faces. Jones faced an SEC only schedule until the playoffs and still went undefeated.

Look I would not be surprised if Lance or even one of the non first round picks this year is the best quarterback in this particular draft but I do think Lance's level of competition combined with him not throwing much is a concern. A bunch of people that have played quarterback in the NFL are suggesting Lance as a passer is very far from a sure thing. It is really the NFL players who haven't played quarterback and who are not experts at what it takes to succeed at a high level throwing the ball that tend to have a higher opinion of Lance.

I personally think the Niners F'd up. If Lance is Mahomes by year 2 or year 3, it may not matter in the long run if the rest of the Niners team gets back to health and they draft well in general but if he is even like the 8-12th best quarterback 3 years from now like perhaps a Dak Prescott or even a more durable Jimmy G, it may be the difference between winning 1-2 Super Bowls with Lance vs just winning an occasional playoff game with him. Cowboys haven't won much with Dak because of other mistakes but imagine if they had traded away 2 first round picks to get Dak when they could have gotten him for the cost of perhaps a 2nd rounder.

Not only did the 49ers give up 2 first round picks in addition to the one they had but they increased Lance's salary as well.

Lastly not sure how much the Wentz comparison even means. Wentz started off really well but then regressed. Nick Foles won the Super Bowl and Wentz has been a disappointment since. It is also tough to put those two players passing numbers in context since it seems like bigger passing numbers for a lot of college quarterbacks have all occurred in the past 5 seasons. This does making scouting tough.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html

Top 9 statistical seasons for quarterbacks have all happened within the past 5 seasons. Something is going on. Maybe all of the top talent is just going to big programs even more whether it be at FBS or FCS level.

Lance himself may have benefitted this and the next Bison quarterback may as well. That program has now sent 3 quarterbacks to the NFL in a short period of time including two top 3 picks which is crazy good for an FCS program. It will probably just help them recruit wide receivers/future quarterbacks.

Alabama itself has gone from a running/defense school or at least that was the reputation to a university that is perfectly willing to let their quarterbacks throw for 400 yards.

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