jmr07019 wrote:soxfan2003 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:Didn’t want Jones. There hasn't been any QB this unathletic drafted in the last 5 years who has succeeded. I know it worked for Brady but he’s a once in a lifetime player. Gotta change with the times. The fact that Fields was easily attainable makes it that much worse. Oh well. Nothing left to do but root for the kid.
Check out all of the Super Bowl winners in the past 25+ years. . Most of them have been fairly slow in the years in which they won Super Bowls. It is the truly fast strong running athletic quarterbacks that have barely ever won it.
Baker Mayfield is a bad call from arguably appearing in the Super Bowl this past year. He was drafted in the past 5 years. Mac Jones is taller and even slightly faster than Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield joined a team that had gone 0-16 the prior season so for all of the criticisms Mayfield gets, he has helped turn around the 'browns. Mayfield doesn't have a rocket arm either.
Past 5 Super Bowl winners....
2017 - Brady
2018 Nick Foles
2019 Brady
2020 Mahomes (he joined a perennial playoff team...)
2021 Brady. (proved it wasn't the New England system)
4 out of the 5 last Super Bowl winners much slower than Mac Jones. Mobile QB's have a poor record of actually winning Super Bowls. It will improve since it can only go up with so many faster QB's getting a chance but I suspect more Super Bowls over the next 25-50 years won by relatively immobile pocket passers as a percentage of those QB's in the league than vice-versa.
Ability to run super fast may be a floor raiser in regular season but to win a Super Bowl, you usually have to beat a team or two that can largely contain your running ability. If you are beating up on bad/mediocre defenses with your legs, sometimes you don't know what hit you when you face a great defense that can mostly take that away. This really happened to Mahomes in both Super Bowls. For all of his great arm talent and very good athleticism, he was fortunate to win one of them.
Outside of great arm talent, Mahomes himself is actually a mediocre athlete compared to most NFL defenders. I may be missing a few players but outside of Mike Vick, Steve Young, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson and a few others -- nearly all of these quarterbacks of the the past 25 years would struggle to play in the NFL at a position other than quarterback. I doubt Mahomes could make it as an NFL safety or linebacker -- his combination of speed/strength doesn't appear to be nearly good enough. As Brady himself has implied, QB is a position in football where general athleticism is insanely overrated. Brady himself probably couldn't have played anywhere on defense at the college D1 level. Tiger Woods and Jack Nicholson are two better golfers in history. There are tens of thousands of golfers worldwide that can out run those two golfers. I maintain playing QB is more equivalent to playing a fast paced game golf where someone is messing with the ball position a bit than it is to playing tennis, a sport where some very good athleticism and truly great conditioning is a requirement. Golf is about performing under pressure while tennis for the most part is a lot less about dealing with the pressure.
As long as he can stay healthy and takes his craft seriously, I like Mac Jones odds of success. Would I like him 1-2 inches taller and with a moderately stronger arm? Sure. I would much rather have that than a .2 upgrade in the 40.
You make a lot of good points but who do you expect to win the super bowls moving forward. I would bet Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson will win a decent amount. Perhaps as much as 50% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won more than that. That’s not taking into account Watson, Jackson and Buffalo qb (who admittedly isn’t super mobile but he’s much better than Mac).
I just think that’s the way the game is going. Not saying you can’t win with a pocket guy but it makes it harder. I realize I’m betting against history here but some of these mobile qbs are leaps and bounds better from the pocket than the mobile qbs of the past.
Lastly on a slightly different topic qb is not a position where I’m looking for value. I’m happy to pay a premium for the premium talent. Granted it’s still a roll of the dice
QB's that don't pick up many yards on the ground I expect to win 25+ out of the next 40 Super Bowls. I will define pocket passers as QB's in a normal 16 game season ran for less than 300 yards. Now I think its fair to adjust it up to 315 yards given the new 17 game season.
The data and past results just heavily favors pocket passers or at least qb's that don't run much. Just look at list of Super Bowl winners over the last 40 years. Only 2 of them ran for more than 300 yards in the regular season in which they won the Super Bowl.
38 > 2 or 36>4 if one is being charitable....
The 2 Super Bowl winning QB's that won while running for 300+ yards in regular season were Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. To be fair I will add in Steve Young since he still had speed/running ability in the year in which he won it despite running for moderately less than 300 yards that particular season. Mahomes in the year in which KC won it, ran for 218 yards in the regular season in 14 games. Mahomes did run for moderately more yards per game, the year before and this past season. Mahomes running ability IMO is overrated but I will include him since despite never running for a lot of yards, at times he does scramble a lot.
Good to great chance if Mahomes, Josh Allen, Rodgers win a Super Bowl/another Super Bowl, they will do so with running no longer a big part of their game. I gave Mahomes the benefit of the doubt for 2019 but I fully expect him to be using his legs less as he ages and KC tries to keep him healthy. Those designed running plays for him are nearing an end. Many Chiefs fans were blasting Reid when Mahomes had a design run play for him in which he almost got concussed and had to leave the game. He also plans to scramble less and Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line.
Mac Jones could probably easily beat Aaron Rodgers, given his wear and tear and age, in the 40 right now. Rodgers ran a 4.71 in the combine when he was young and hadn't gotten beat up by NFL. He was once a bit of a running threat and I have him listed as one of the Super Bowl winning QB's that won it as a legit running threat.
But this past year, Rodgers in his recent MVP season ran for less than 150 yards and obviously didn't try to run it in vs Tampa. The year before that in another NFC championship appearance, he ran for a little less than 200 yards during the regular season. In his Super Bowl winning season, he was faster/more of a running threat at 356 yards rushing for the season which was close to his career high.
So who are possibilities to win Super Bowls in near future/future while running for less than 315 yards in that season in no particular order other than concentrating on Patriots first.
Mac Jones. -- I'd bet on Patriots right now to win another championship before the Celtics. I do expect Cam to start this year.
Tom Brady -- I won't bet against him getting #8 before he retires.
Aaron Rodgers -- came close this past year. Yes he still buys time in the pocket by moving around but he isn't running much at all anymore. The yardage shows he barely runs anymore.
Patrick Mahomes -- given how long he will probably play....he is going to have a chance to win more super bowls as a QB that doesn't run much than as a runner or big time scrambler. He has short area quickness right now but he isn't truly fast even in his mid 20's, He obviously just throws really well moving backwards/on the move but even Mahomes has all but said bailing out of the pocket early may have hurt his team in Super Bowl.
Jameis Winston -- Winston winning it all would not shock me....yes 30 interceptions in a single year but he has had some good years and may be improved with New Orleans coaching and learning from Brees and learning what Brady did with some of his ex teammates. Maybe he is out of the league in 3-4 years but the size and arm strength is there,
Josh Allen -- he is still a runner right now but as he is learning the position he is running less and less each year. I doubt the Bills will want him running too much after his rookie contract. 631 yards to 510, to now 421 in his best year throwing the ball. Would not surprise me if/when Allen wins it, it is in a year in which he runs for less than 250 yards in a 17 game season.
Matt Stafford -- Rams may not have great offense but if healthy their defense is very good.
Dak Prescott -- expect him to run less given he is getting a little older plus the injury. Cowboys have to improve their defense
Jimmy G -- would surprise me but not shock me. Has already made a Super Bowl
Burrow -- Bengals have a long way to go but he did well as a rookie.
Mayfield -- almost made super bowl
Trevor Lawrence -- after his first 1-2 years, I don't expect him to run that much.
Tua Tagovailoa -- not completely sold on him but Miami has done a decent job building their team and collecting picks.
Zach Wilson -- Jets long way off but some say he has best arm in this years draft.
Justin Herbert -- ran for under 250 yards. A little faster than Jones but not that much faster. I doubt he runs much as he ages.