Bar Fight wrote: Bleeding Green wrote:
celtxman wrote:I have to admit having FOMO on Tyler Herro and wondering if Ainge should have worked a trade with Charlotte to move up 2 slots. I also hope that Langford's injury doesn't slow things down like it did with Avery Bradley. With some terrible picks (Yabu , James Young) fresh on our mind in this area of the draft, it doesn't feel great that Ainge drafted someone projected to go lower....AGAIN....and he is also injured. I'm hoping for higher risk , higher reward, but I'm not confident of that result.
Langford was a projected top-5 pick before the college season in which he was injured. How much more high-reward do you want at 14?
Draft projections before the college season mean almost nothing.
How so? Google any year 'early mock draft' and 90% of the players are mocked roughly where they end up. There are always outliers, guys who get injured, guys who breakout, etc., but you can go back and red an article from right after the 2018 draft that projected the 2019 draft and it would look pretty good. Guys like Nassir Little drop, guys like Ja Morant breakout, Romeo Langford has an injury, Zion has the best college season in the last 20 years.https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789663-way-too-soon-2019-nba-mock-draft-rj-barrett-early-favorite-to-go-no-1#slide12
They missed on Nassir Little (mediocre, still picked in first round), Quentin Grimes (didn't declare), Jaylen Hoard (mediocre), Jontay Porter (injured), Bol (injured), Naz Reid, Louis King (mediocre), Charles Bassey (didn't declare), Jalen Smith (didn't declare), Jalen McDaniels, Jaylen Hands (WTF are there so many Jaylens), Lindell Wigginton, Killian TIllie (didn't declare), Shamorie Ponds. Even a bleacher report bozo was able to, before almost any of these kids played above the high school level, nail half of the first round picks. Skip the guys who didn't declare, guys who were injured, and you have only 4 real misses.
Or just look at RSCI rankings of guys in high school and anyone top-5 is going to be pretty good unless they get injured.https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2017.html