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Grant Williams thread

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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#481 » by Gomes3PC » Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:07 am

BostonCouchGM wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:
The size is important, though - ultimately his ability to adapt to larger defenders (and to scoring from the perimeter) will decide how close he gets to the impact he had in college as a primary scorer.

Let's worry about what his ceiling is in a few years. In pretty much three pro games, Grant has proven that he is already capable of being a league-average rotation player. Just look at the track record of guys who are picked in the 21-23 range to understand how unusual that threshold is alone:

2018 - Grayson Allen, Chandler Hutchison, Aaron Holiday
2017 - Terrance Ferguson, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby
2016 - DeAndre Bembry, Malachi Richardson, Ante Zizic
2015 - Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
2014 - Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, Rodney Hood
2013 - Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Solomon Hill

It is really freaking hard to find a starting-caliber player outside the top 15. You've got basically one of them (Anunoby) in that entire list, with an at-best 50% hit rate on finding a rotation player in that range of the draft.



people have made this bad argument and poor comparison for years. Those teams, with better drafting G.M.s, should have taken different players. It's not about who these teams chose but who was still on the board when they made their choices.

The following players could have been chosen picks 21-23 instead:

2014: Capela, Bogdanovic, Dinwiddie, Jokic
2015: Portis, Harrell, Osman
2016: Siakam, Murray, Brogdon
2017: Kuzma, Bryant, OG
2018: Simons, Robinson, Kurucs, Bonga, Nunn

and in a few years we'll look back at several better players that were still on the board when high floor low ceiling Grant Williams was chosen by atrocious drafting Danny Ainge, like we do every single draft.

Take the Kyrie trade for instance. It's not about Sexton, who they chose at #8. It's about a full career's worth of who was still available at that pick that we lost out on. Case in point: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr., Anfernee Simons, Mitchell Robinson, Bonga, Musa, Kurucs, Nunn. That's why the Kyrie trade was dumb from the beginning. We get a two year rental of a disgruntled moron and lost out on all those players we could have traded Crowder, IT and Zizic for (CLE ended up getting Nance, Hill and Clarkson) AND the opportunity to draft a Tatum level talent that could be here for a decade.

Thanks Danny!

This is a fallacy. There is little evidence in any sport that GMs have a sustainable ability to pick players meaningfully better than average. Just like stock-picking - an extremely small number of active managers can beat indexes.

This is why Belichick as a GM has been successful. Not because he's such a great drafter - he has TONS of busts. It's because he's realized that draft picks outside the top 2-3 guys in any sport are pretty much a crapshoot, so you are way better off maximizing the # of bullets you can fire vs. trying to get "your guy."

Every single GM in the NBA has huge busts on their draft resume. Saying "what an idiot Ainge was for not getting Pascal Siakam in 2016!" is the same nonsense as chastising all the teams that passed on Tom Brady for 6 rounds in the 2000 draft.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#482 » by flintsky21 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:21 am

That play where he got the ball stolen from him then he stole it right back and saved it to a teammate as he was going out of bounds tells you all you need to know about this guy.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#483 » by jirrit » Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:54 am

flintsky21 wrote:That play where he got the ball stolen from him then he stole it right back and saved it to a teammate as he was going out of bounds tells you all you need to know about this guy.

He’s right there in the Marcus Smart mold heart wise. You can also see that how he gets treated by Brad’s rotations last night against the Bucks. He’s definately gonna be that Tucker/Posey/Dray kinda guy, depending on his growth. I predict he’s gonna be an important rotation piece for us.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#484 » by GuyClinch » Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:23 am

Can't say I liked the pick really - but I don't watch enough college hoops and this guy can play. Small but talented. If this guy was 3 inches taller he would have gone #2.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#485 » by Jurry » Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:24 am

Kids already got a 12 year career carved out. Ceiling I dont know, thats all on the offensive end. But defensively, smarts (hate the term bbiq...that used to be a given in this sport), instincts, physicality. All I can say is take advantage of these guys when they're young, once the physical skills go its a different player. Being "undersized" doesn't matter if you can match with speed/strength + instincts. Thats what we have right now when we put Rob and Grant in the game and its fun to watch.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#486 » by ddb » Mon Nov 4, 2019 4:58 pm

I liked the pick and hinted leading up to the draft that Boston may have interest in Williams. Ainge was going for high character kids and landed 5. What I like the most about Williams and Edwards (so far) is that they are tough and ready for the league. Romeo is going to take some time and that's okay because he plays a position that is a strength for the current team. Fall & Waters both seem to be well liked, coachable and hard working.
Focusing on Williams and Edwards because those are the two that will help this years squad. These kids will start knocking down shots. Right now the shots just aren't falling, but I'm not concerned about that. They will start making the open 3's. The encouraging thing so far is that they are contributing in other ways. Especially, Grant.
When I look at rookies I try to envision who that player could be by age 25. For example, 19 year old Tatum just screamed future superstar. you saw his raw ability and demeanor and it was just off the charts good. And now in year #3 Tatum is becoming an All-Star caliber player. By age 25 he could be a Top 10 player. He's that good. so that's how I try to envision rookies. What I love about Grant and Edwards is that I feel like it's pretty simple to figure out who they are going to be in this league. In Grant's case we have a guy that is going to be a leader. A glue-guy type. A good defender & communicator. He WILL be a 3pt shooter as well. I think the Dray comparisons are spot on. My guess is that Grant will be a better shooter then Dray is, but may never be a DPOTY like Dray was. Maybe he doesn't quite reach that level, but he's absolutely capable of it. With Edwards I think it's pretty straight forward. He's a microwave offense type of guy. We saw a glimpse in preseason. He'll be the type of guy that can turn the tides quickly. BOOM, 4 3's made in 3 minutes.

I'm so excited about these kids. If Langford ends up being a stud in a couple of years then Ainge absolutely hit a home run in this draft
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#487 » by Bluewhale » Mon Nov 4, 2019 8:55 pm

I really hope we trade pick 14 up to 12 and get PJ Washington....

But I am happy with Grant Williams.

Grant Williams will be a very good player for many years.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#488 » by sam_I_am » Tue Nov 5, 2019 1:01 pm

Has anyone seen Eric Paschall (Warriors) play? How does he compare to Grant? He is getting a much larger opportunity but he is also making the most of it with a monster 34/13 game last night. Also only 6-6 but has been guarding bigs like AD.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#489 » by jfs1000d » Tue Nov 5, 2019 1:10 pm

sam_I_am wrote:Has anyone seen Eric Paschall (Warriors) play? How does he compare to Grant? He is getting a much larger opportunity but he is also making the most of it with a monster 34/13 game last night. Also only 6-6 but has been guarding bigs like AD.


Grant cant do that. wow. Paschall with a 34 13 game?
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#490 » by sam_I_am » Tue Nov 5, 2019 1:12 pm

jfs1000d wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:Has anyone seen Eric Paschall (Warriors) play? How does he compare to Grant? He is getting a much larger opportunity but he is also making the most of it with a monster 34/13 game last night. Also only 6-6 but has been guarding bigs like AD.


Grant cant do that. wow. Paschall with a 34 13 game?


First rookie since Blake Griffin to do it. Shot 4-6 from 3. I did like him a lot at Villanova. Not sure how he compares to Grant as a playmaker.....I don’t recall him standing out as one in College.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#491 » by Bluewhale » Tue Nov 5, 2019 3:57 pm

Pick 33: Carsen Edwards
Pick 34: Bruno Fernando, 6'10
Pick 41: Eric Paschall, 6'9

Two second round PF plays well recently after pick 33.

But the second rounds are crap shot in most case...
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#492 » by zoyathedestroya » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:02 pm

Read on Twitter
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#493 » by Andrew McCeltic » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:26 pm

Grant is only 20? He turns 21 later this month.. I didn’t realize he was that young, points to his upside
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#494 » by 31to6 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:50 pm

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Grant is only 20? He turns 21 later this month.. I didn’t realize he was that young, points to his upside


Only if he’s still growing. But seriously though can he bulk up more or no? Might’ve sort of already maxed out his frame, is there dough there to convert to muscle or is he already low body fat %?
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#495 » by Fencer reregistered » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:26 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:
Read on Twitter


Brad REALLY values people he regards as "energy raisers".

Have I posted the video about that often enough, or should I do so again? :)
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#496 » by Fencer reregistered » Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:11 am

This Grant Williams play is smarter than it first looked. He backed AWAY from the basket and then kept repositioning to give a driving Kemba a passing lane to him for the dump-off. Walker's end of the play is good too.

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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#497 » by zoyathedestroya » Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:26 am

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Entering last night's games, rank among rookies per-36 minutes, minimum 100 minutes played:
• Contested shots - 2nd
• Charges drawn - 3rd
• Deflections - 8th
• Screen assists - 5th
• Screen assist points - 4th
• Box outs - 2nd

Ultimate lunch pail guy. He can grow his game later. Right now, this is what we need from him.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#498 » by Green89 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:42 am

Still 0/16 on threes but the defensive side of his game is solid.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#499 » by cloverleaf » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:08 am

Green89 wrote:Still 0/16 on threes but the defensive side of his game is solid.


He's also a decent .667 on the .324 of his shots he takes from within 3 feet.

Yet to make a single shot from 16 feet or out (and only .250 from 10-16), yet that's where almost half his attempts come from.

Also, only a quarter of his 3pt attempts have been from the corner. (E.g., Semi, who is at .500 on 3s takes 40% of his shots from there.)

Even if he can hit from deep, I'd think it better for his confidence and game to focus on closer in for now.

It's not as if he was an accomplished shooter from the college 3 distance either. He hit .120 as a freshman and .326 as a sophomore, for a combined 25% average on only 71 attempts over the two years.
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Re: Grant Williams thread 

Post#500 » by Green89 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:34 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Green89 wrote:Still 0/16 on threes but the defensive side of his game is solid.


He's also a decent .667 on the .324 of his shots he takes from within 3 feet.

Yet to make a single shot from 16 feet or out (and only .250 from 10-16), yet that's where almost half his attempts come from.

Also, only a quarter of his 3pt attempts have been from the corner. (E.g., Semi, who is at .500 on 3s takes 40% of his shots from there.)

Even if he can hit from deep, I'd think it better for his confidence and game to focus on closer in for now.

It's not as if he was an accomplished shooter from the college 3 distance either. He hit .120 as a freshman and .326 as a sophomore, for a combined 25% average on only 71 attempts over the two years.


He's clearly not a theee point threat, so he shouldn't be taking them.

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