Re: Grant Williams thread
Posted: Fri May 29, 2020 10:04 pm
Here's a write up I did on Grant on another site:
He's an undersized, but strong, 4 that is capable of guarding up or down a spot. Even as a rookie he's proven effective on the defensive side of the ball. The question with him is shooting. He's played 62 games and he essentially had two seasons. In his first 20 games he hit ZERO threes. He was 0-25. It was laughable. In game 21, he got over the hump and hit that first three and it turned a corner for him. After going 0-25 in the first 20 games he's gone 21-60 over the last 42 (35%). His FT% on the year is 72.5%, his college FT% was 75.8% and his college 3pt% was 29% overall, 33% his last year. All of those factors lead me to believe that he was in his own head to start his career and the 35% is closer to what he really is though probably a little inflated. Main takeaway is that I do believe the 0-25 stretch was an outlier. Otherwise on offense, he's a heady player who sets good picks and has a good feel for moving the ball and making extra passes. Struggles mightily to finish inside on contested shots due to his lack of length though.
So what does the future hold for him? It mainly depends on his shooting. I don't want to say "NBA player comps" but here are a few guys whose games I think he can attempt to emulate...
Boris Diaw. He had a similar build to Grant Williams as short for a PF but stocky (Williams is a little shorter but a little stockier). Diaw had a good feel for passing the ball especially inside in traffic. Williams has some of that to him. Diaw was a career 33.6% shooter but that generally went up as he got older. You'd hope Williams could have a similar progression of improving a bit in that area. I think that's the type of offensive game you hope that Williams can try to build. Over Diaw's prime with Phoenix and Charlotte he averaged 11.3/5.2/4.5/0.7/0/7 on 50.3% shooting from the field and 35.0% from 3 across 33.0 minutes per game. In Williams last 42 games he's averaged 4.2/2.9/1.1/0.5/0.5 on 48.9% shooting from the field and 35.0% from 3 across 16.2 minutes per game. In about half the minutes Williams is about half the numbers in a lot of areas there. Hopefully he can build up to a similar sort of prime on the offensive/stats end.
On the defensive end, I think a solid comparison for him is PJ Tucker. Williams is built similarly and, like Tucker, has shown an ability to guard SFs on the perimeter as well as kick down and guard 5s to a respectable degree in small ball. I think Williams has shown not just the potential but actual production to fit that profile on defense. He'll have to learn the nuances of playing tough without fouling (and to be fair, some of that just comes with respect from the refs as you play more).
I really like a lot of the traits Williams has. Obviously gotta keep it in perspective - I'm talking about guys like Boris Diaw and PJ Tucker as players he could maybe one day develop into reasonable approximations of. I'm far from saying he's a star. But I really like skill set to develop as a good solid role player for the future. He's shown a lot of traits in college and the NBA that make me think it's reasonable he could play in the mold of those guys.
He's an undersized, but strong, 4 that is capable of guarding up or down a spot. Even as a rookie he's proven effective on the defensive side of the ball. The question with him is shooting. He's played 62 games and he essentially had two seasons. In his first 20 games he hit ZERO threes. He was 0-25. It was laughable. In game 21, he got over the hump and hit that first three and it turned a corner for him. After going 0-25 in the first 20 games he's gone 21-60 over the last 42 (35%). His FT% on the year is 72.5%, his college FT% was 75.8% and his college 3pt% was 29% overall, 33% his last year. All of those factors lead me to believe that he was in his own head to start his career and the 35% is closer to what he really is though probably a little inflated. Main takeaway is that I do believe the 0-25 stretch was an outlier. Otherwise on offense, he's a heady player who sets good picks and has a good feel for moving the ball and making extra passes. Struggles mightily to finish inside on contested shots due to his lack of length though.
So what does the future hold for him? It mainly depends on his shooting. I don't want to say "NBA player comps" but here are a few guys whose games I think he can attempt to emulate...
Boris Diaw. He had a similar build to Grant Williams as short for a PF but stocky (Williams is a little shorter but a little stockier). Diaw had a good feel for passing the ball especially inside in traffic. Williams has some of that to him. Diaw was a career 33.6% shooter but that generally went up as he got older. You'd hope Williams could have a similar progression of improving a bit in that area. I think that's the type of offensive game you hope that Williams can try to build. Over Diaw's prime with Phoenix and Charlotte he averaged 11.3/5.2/4.5/0.7/0/7 on 50.3% shooting from the field and 35.0% from 3 across 33.0 minutes per game. In Williams last 42 games he's averaged 4.2/2.9/1.1/0.5/0.5 on 48.9% shooting from the field and 35.0% from 3 across 16.2 minutes per game. In about half the minutes Williams is about half the numbers in a lot of areas there. Hopefully he can build up to a similar sort of prime on the offensive/stats end.
On the defensive end, I think a solid comparison for him is PJ Tucker. Williams is built similarly and, like Tucker, has shown an ability to guard SFs on the perimeter as well as kick down and guard 5s to a respectable degree in small ball. I think Williams has shown not just the potential but actual production to fit that profile on defense. He'll have to learn the nuances of playing tough without fouling (and to be fair, some of that just comes with respect from the refs as you play more).
I really like a lot of the traits Williams has. Obviously gotta keep it in perspective - I'm talking about guys like Boris Diaw and PJ Tucker as players he could maybe one day develop into reasonable approximations of. I'm far from saying he's a star. But I really like skill set to develop as a good solid role player for the future. He's shown a lot of traits in college and the NBA that make me think it's reasonable he could play in the mold of those guys.