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Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004

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Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#1 » by Elrod is Back » Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:18 pm

The Cs had four picks in this year's draft, including three in the top 33. To understand what reasonable expectations might be for these draft picks, let's look at the three other drafts where Danny had at least four picks and at least two first rounders.

I am just looking at the actual picks the Cs made; not at when Danny traded picks on draft day for picks in future picks, like he did this year and in 2016.

These are the three such drafts:
2004 https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2004.html
Al Jefferson (15th overall)
Delonte West (24th overall)
Tony Allen (25th overall)
Justin Reed (40th overall)

2015 https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html
Terry Rozier (16th)
RJ Hunter (25th)
Jordan Mickey (33rd)
Marcus Daniels (45th)

2016 https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2016.html
Jaylen Brown (3rd)
Guerschon Yabusele (16th)
Ante Zizic (23rd)
Demetrius Jackson (45th)
Ben Bentil (51st)
Abdel Nader (58th)

2004 is generally consider a very good draft for the Cs, in what is usually considered a strong draft overall. Jefferson became a quality starter until injuries beat him down. West was a starter/rotation player until mental health issues beat him down. Tony Allen had a long and storied career as a superb defensive guard, starting and coming off the bench, albeit more with Memphis than the Cs. Reed washed out.

2015 produced one rotation player in Rozier and three washouts, although Hunter and Mickey may some day manage to salvage their careers.

2016 produced Brown, a quality starter, and three guys who teeter between possible careers as bench guys and washouts in Yabusele, Zizic and Nader. 2016 was considered an unusually bad draft at the time and that has proven to be the case.

Clearly if the Cs get results like 2004 that would be exceptional: three guys who were starters and/or 6th men and a couple of whom were respected players for many years in Big Al and Tony Allen. 2016 would not be horrible: one guy who looks to have high quality starter status and a bunch of marginal dudes who might washout. 2015 results would not be good, but those results I suspect are common. When you look at past drafts what jumps out is how few players actually make it who get drafted.

It is worth noting that few people argued that the 2019 draft was an especially good one. If we get 2004 results we should be delirious with joy. Right now, before summer league, before training camp, before any real games have been played in earnest, the future looks bright for all of them. On the surface it seems likely to me that G. Williams and Edwards will eventually become at least rotation players and, health permitting, will have long careers. Williams could become more than that. Langford has the highest upside and also a somewhat greater bust potential. His career arc could be that of Michael Finley or that of James Young. As for Waters, history suggests his chances of making it are slim and none. But Austin Ainge raved about him in a way I never heard the team rave about Bentil or Daniels after recent drafts. And the game is changing so that 5-10 guys have a better shot at making it. We'll see.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#2 » by brackdan70 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:19 pm

Prospect wise it feels like the Brown Draft a little at least at the top

Brown and Langford both highly rated top 5 recruits who underachieved a not in college. I really like Langford to settle in the league as a quality starter and I feel a very nice use of the 14th pick. I think he can contribute in the rotation right away
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#3 » by brackdan70 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:21 pm

Williams and Edwards seem more like 2004. Those dudes will stick in the league and have good careers.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#4 » by Taget » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:10 pm

With Carsen Edwards I haven't felt as good about a point guard we drafted since Marcus Banks. And I don't even mean that facetiously. He had hype coming in as he was brimming with self confidence and barking up a storm about how he'd take the world by storm. Had us so fooled that some Celtics fans believed there was some sort of conspiracy and Coach O'Brien was refusing to play him in some evil plot. When in reality he just didn't have it. At least in non-Summer League games.

We won't have any idea what we have until Summer League and even we've seen more than our share of summer league superstars who just can't cut in an actual NBA game.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#5 » by Ernest » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:31 pm

Let's just set expectations low and hope to be surprised. There is no way to see the future, there could be a global pandemic next year for all we know.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#6 » by BostonCouchGM » Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:13 pm

I only care about who was available at our picks. Who do I feel was the best player and in comparison, who did Danny draft? Clearly I don't go by groupthink so my Big Board is drastically different than the supposed experts. It will be obvious who was right 2-3 years down the road. Just like I was right about our disastrous draft in 2016 when Danny passed on several better players at each of his picks, I'll be right about this. Yes this was a weaker draft but it wasn't weak. Especially, if you ranked the players like I did and Danny had a chance to draft 3 of the top 10 players but passed on all of them. Like we view the 2016 draft as the draft Danny passed on LeVert, Siakam, Dejounte, and Brogdon, we'll look back on this draft as the one we passed on Sekou, Bazley, Little and Bol.

My Big Board prior to the draft.

1. Zion
2. Sekou
3. Morant
4. Garland
5. Bazley
6. Barrett
7. Little
8. Reddish
9. Bol
10. NAW
11. Roby
12. Hunter
13. Claxton
14. Hayes
15. White
16. Reid
17. Washington
18. Culver
19. Clarke
20. McDaniels
21. Hachimura
22. Langford
23. Williams
24. Porter Jr.
25. Okeke
26. Windler
27. Herro
28. Goga
29. Thybulle
30. Keldon

I don't rank players on who they were in college but what they can become in the NBA.

How could I be happy with Danny when the #2, #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, and #13 players are still available at our #14 pick and he took my #22nd ranked player? Obviously my choice would have been Sekou Doumbouya.

How could I be happy when the #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, #13, #16, #19, and #20 players are still available at our #22 pick and he took the #23 player on my board? Obviously my choice would have been Darius Bazley.

How could I be happy when the #9, #11, #16, and #20 players are still available at our #33 pick and he took Casrsen Edwards? Obviously my choice would have been Bol Bol.

How could I be happy when the #16, and #20 players are still available at our #51st pick and he took Temont Waters? Obviously my choice would have been Naz Reid.

Right now, with all the talk about Kemba and DLO and to a much lesser extent Rozier being our PG, while at the same time worried about our complete and utter lack of bigs, the team I would have drafted would have taken care of that. Sekou Doumbouya is a prototypical 4 in today's NBA. Bazley would have been a top 3-5 pick had he played in college. He would be ready to take over for Hayward once his contract is up. Bol would give us a project Big to develop alongside Williams. A true stretch 5 with enormous upside. Reid would give us a potential Cousins type big worth developing too.

This will be interesting to come back to in a few seasons.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#7 » by Bleeding Green » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:25 pm

The 2016 draft was a trainwreck, even if you like Brown; but they put themselves in a spot where they needed to take euros so they didn't make selections based strictly on talent/best player available. This draft they played trades masterfully and got a guy who could be the steal of the draft (Grant Williams), a high upside shooting guard with lots of athleticism/length (Langford) a guy who will definitely stick in the league for a decade if his shot translates (Edwards) and then another guard whose only flaw is that he's (very) undersized. Also they acquired a future first which should factor into any considerations. I'm ready for Brogdon/Middleton/Lopez/Mirotic/ to all leave in FA for the Bucks and that pick to end up in the middle of the first in a potentially better draft.

I wouldn't have taken any of the players the Celtics picked at these spots as I was following along live, but I also probably would have taken Jontay Porter at 22 instead of trading down and getting WIlliams instead, so what the hell do I know? I'd have taken Brandon Clarke at 14 and Jontay Porter at 20 or 22 and then I guess Lecque at 51. I'm really excited about this class, especially given how weak it seems the overall talent is in the draft pool. They didn't force any picks like with Yabu and Zizic.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#8 » by captain green » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:56 pm

BostonCouchGM wrote:
My Big Board prior to the draft.

1. Zion
2. Sekou
3. Morant
4. Garland
5. Bazley
6. Barrett
7. Little
8. Reddish
9. Bol
10. NAW
11. Roby
12. Hunter
13. Claxton
14. Hayes
15. White
16. Reid
17. Washington
18. Culver
19. Clarke
20. McDaniels
21. Hachimura
22. Langford
23. Williams
24. Porter Jr.
25. Okeke
26. Windler
27. Herro
28. Goga
29. Thybulle
30. Keldon

I don't rank players on who they were in college but what they can become in the NBA.

So glad our teams big board didn't look like yours.
I mean I'm not happy with our 2nd round picks.
Bol at 9 reid at 16 thybulle at 29 langford at 22 bazley at 5 wtf you watching . Langford was never going to be there at 20. Let alone 22nd.
I've seen alot bad big boards but yours is the winner. I'm not coming at you if you felt that way so be it but I'm glad your not a gm.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#9 » by LuckyLeprechaun » Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:31 am

I'm not really interested in mid to late 1st round picks doing what is expected. Players like that don't move the needle and are readily available for cheap every free agency. I'm interested in players who have a chance to surpass their draft status. Those are the guys that change fortunes for a franchise.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#10 » by BostonCouchGM » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:20 am

BostonCouchGM wrote:I only care about who was available at our picks. Who do I feel was the best player and in comparison, who did Danny draft? Clearly I don't go by groupthink so my Big Board is drastically different than the supposed experts. It will be obvious who was right 2-3 years down the road. Just like I was right about our disastrous draft in 2016 when Danny passed on several better players at each of his picks, I'll be right about this. Yes this was a weaker draft but it wasn't weak. Especially, if you ranked the players like I did and Danny had a chance to draft 3 of the top 10 players but passed on all of them. Like we view the 2016 draft as the draft Danny passed on LeVert, Siakam, Dejounte, and Brogdon, we'll look back on this draft as the one we passed on Sekou, Bazley, Little and Bol.

My Big Board prior to the draft.

1. Zion-27-7-4
2. Sekou-4-2 in a horrible situation with inept HC/FO/organization. May need to find new home
3. Morant-20-4-7
4. Garland-18-2-6
5. Bazley-13-7-2 (19-7-2 in the month of April)
6. Barrett-17-6-3
7. Little-yuck. barely plays. POR kinda clueless when it comes to youth tbh
8. Reddish-11-4-1
9. Bol-Uber talented and has flashed but DEN too busy competing to give him minutes. (12-6 w/2 bpg and 36% three in G-League)
10. NAW-10-3-2 should play more
11. Roby-9-6-2
12. Hunter-16-5-2
13. Claxton-6-5-1 w/1 block a game. Should be playing way more
14. Hayes-6-4 hapless organization but I think I might be wrong about him
15. White-14-4-5
16. Reid-11-4-1 w/1 block a game...looks like I was right to have him so high
17. Washington-12-6-3
18. Culver-5-3 ....looks like I was right to have him so low
19. Clarke-11-5-1
20. McDaniels-6-3-1
21. Hachimura-13-6-2
22. Langford-2-2-1...right to have him low
23. Williams-5-3-1
24. Porter Jr.-16-4-6....right to have him higher than most
25. Okeke-7-4-2 barely played due to injuries though
26. Windler-5-3-1....hapless organization
27. Herro-15-5-3....wrong to have him so low
28. Goga-5-3 bigs take longer to develop though
29. Thybulle-3-2...spot on so far
30. Keldon-13-6-2...wrong to have him so low

I don't rank players on who they were in college but what they can become in the NBA.

How could I be happy with Danny when the #2, #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, and #13 players are still available at our #14 pick and he took my #22nd ranked player? Obviously my choice would have been Sekou Doumbouya.

How could I be happy when the #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, #13, #16, #19, and #20 players are still available at our #22 pick and he took the #23 player on my board? Obviously my choice would have been Darius Bazley.

How could I be happy when the #9, #11, #16, and #20 players are still available at our #33 pick and he took Casrsen Edwards? Obviously my choice would have been Bol Bol.

How could I be happy when the #16, and #20 players are still available at our #51st pick and he took Temont Waters? Obviously my choice would have been Naz Reid.

Right now, with all the talk about Kemba and DLO and to a much lesser extent Rozier being our PG, while at the same time worried about our complete and utter lack of bigs, the team I would have drafted would have taken care of that. Sekou Doumbouya is a prototypical 4 in today's NBA. Bazley would have been a top 3-5 pick had he played in college. He would be ready to take over for Hayward once his contract is up. Bol would give us a project Big to develop alongside Williams. A true stretch 5 with enormous upside. Reid would give us a potential Cousins type big worth developing too.

This will be interesting to come back to in a few seasons.


not too shabby if I do say so myself. Looking back it is so glaringly apparent that fit/situation is super important. So many of these kids have barely been given a chance because their situations suck, either because of inept leadership or they're on playoff seeking teams that won't devote minutes to develop young players or have expensive vets blocking them. Sekou never had a chance with that buffoon HC and they clearly don't believe in him. He needs to get traded. He's still very young and has enormous upside. I'm still very hopeful but he might be a late bloomer like Wood or Grant. If I'm wrong about Sekou it'll be the worst I've ever done doing this. It's still only been 2 years though. Let's see what another year brings us. It's also obvious bigs take longer to develop. Still way too early to pass judgment but as a group it's not looking so good.

I DO know I'm right about Danny absolutely blowing this draft. With a better bench in the playoffs last year, someone to step in when Hayward went down (Bazley?) and depth at the 4/5 (Sekou/Bol/Reid) they might have pulled that series out against MIA and gotten to the finals. Getting next to nothing from Langford, Williams, Edwards and Waters really hurt. Even my Danny apologist stalkers have to admit this, no?
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#11 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:39 pm

BostonCouchGM wrote:I only care about who was available at our picks. Who do I feel was the best player and in comparison, who did Danny draft? Clearly I don't go by groupthink so my Big Board is drastically different than the supposed experts. It will be obvious who was right 2-3 years down the road. Just like I was right about our disastrous draft in 2016 when Danny passed on several better players at each of his picks, I'll be right about this. Yes this was a weaker draft but it wasn't weak. Especially, if you ranked the players like I did and Danny had a chance to draft 3 of the top 10 players but passed on all of them. Like we view the 2016 draft as the draft Danny passed on LeVert, Siakam, Dejounte, and Brogdon, we'll look back on this draft as the one we passed on Sekou, Bazley, Little and Bol.

My Big Board prior to the draft.

1. Zion
2. Sekou
3. Morant
4. Garland
5. Bazley
6. Barrett
7. Little
8. Reddish
9. Bol
10. NAW
11. Roby
12. Hunter
13. Claxton
14. Hayes
15. White
16. Reid
17. Washington
18. Culver
19. Clarke
20. McDaniels
21. Hachimura
22. Langford
23. Williams
24. Porter Jr.
25. Okeke
26. Windler
27. Herro
28. Goga
29. Thybulle
30. Keldon
.

Damn this is the worst draft board I've ever set my eyes on.... Claxton at 13 holy ****.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#12 » by JediMasterRevan » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:52 pm

BostonCouchGM wrote:I only care about who was available at our picks. Who do I feel was the best player and in comparison, who did Danny draft? Clearly I don't go by groupthink so my Big Board is drastically different than the supposed experts. It will be obvious who was right 2-3 years down the road. Just like I was right about our disastrous draft in 2016 when Danny passed on several better players at each of his picks, I'll be right about this. Yes this was a weaker draft but it wasn't weak. Especially, if you ranked the players like I did and Danny had a chance to draft 3 of the top 10 players but passed on all of them. Like we view the 2016 draft as the draft Danny passed on LeVert, Siakam, Dejounte, and Brogdon, we'll look back on this draft as the one we passed on Sekou, Bazley, Little and Bol.

My Big Board prior to the draft.

1. Zion
2. Sekou
3. Morant
4. Garland
5. Bazley
6. Barrett
7. Little
8. Reddish
9. Bol
10. NAW
11. Roby
12. Hunter
13. Claxton
14. Hayes
15. White
16. Reid
17. Washington
18. Culver
19. Clarke
20. McDaniels
21. Hachimura
22. Langford
23. Williams
24. Porter Jr.
25. Okeke
26. Windler
27. Herro
28. Goga
29. Thybulle
30. Keldon

I don't rank players on who they were in college but what they can become in the NBA.

How could I be happy with Danny when the #2, #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, and #13 players are still available at our #14 pick and he took my #22nd ranked player? Obviously my choice would have been Sekou Doumbouya.

How could I be happy when the #5, #7, #9, #10, #11, #13, #16, #19, and #20 players are still available at our #22 pick and he took the #23 player on my board? Obviously my choice would have been Darius Bazley.

How could I be happy when the #9, #11, #16, and #20 players are still available at our #33 pick and he took Casrsen Edwards? Obviously my choice would have been Bol Bol.

How could I be happy when the #16, and #20 players are still available at our #51st pick and he took Temont Waters? Obviously my choice would have been Naz Reid.

Right now, with all the talk about Kemba and DLO and to a much lesser extent Rozier being our PG, while at the same time worried about our complete and utter lack of bigs, the team I would have drafted would have taken care of that. Sekou Doumbouya is a prototypical 4 in today's NBA. Bazley would have been a top 3-5 pick had he played in college. He would be ready to take over for Hayward once his contract is up. Bol would give us a project Big to develop alongside Williams. A true stretch 5 with enormous upside. Reid would give us a potential Cousins type big worth developing too.

This will be interesting to come back to in a few seasons.



I wanted Keldon Johnson so bad with that pick.
Really liked NAW a ton too

Thought both would be ideal fits with the Jays.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#13 » by Bleeding Green » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:37 pm

BK_2020 wrote:
BostonCouchGM wrote:I only care about who was available at our picks. Who do I feel was the best player and in comparison, who did Danny draft? Clearly I don't go by groupthink so my Big Board is drastically different than the supposed experts. It will be obvious who was right 2-3 years down the road. Just like I was right about our disastrous draft in 2016 when Danny passed on several better players at each of his picks, I'll be right about this. Yes this was a weaker draft but it wasn't weak. Especially, if you ranked the players like I did and Danny had a chance to draft 3 of the top 10 players but passed on all of them. Like we view the 2016 draft as the draft Danny passed on LeVert, Siakam, Dejounte, and Brogdon, we'll look back on this draft as the one we passed on Sekou, Bazley, Little and Bol.

My Big Board prior to the draft.
.

Damn this is the worst draft board I've ever set my eyes on.... Claxton at 13 holy ****.

Kinda nailed Claxton, the rest is a disaster though. Claxton is gonna be great. Honestly this draft looks pretty **** so far, but the players have mostly only played across two very bizarre seasons not amenable to development, so what does anyone expect? It's basically Zion and a bunch of role players. Even Morant is way overrated and will never be that great if he can't learn to shoot. So many of these players everyone is giddy about (Bazley, Herro, NAW, et al) they all pretty much still suck as NBA players. How many players have genuinely stood out in this draft? I know people hate on Grant Williams, but how many guys drafted after him have really shown anything? Like 4 guys?
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#14 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:38 pm

Yeah no Claxton doesn't go 13th in a redraft above Michael **** Porter Jr.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#15 » by Bleeding Green » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:39 pm

I agree, Michael **** Porter Jr was in a different draft class, though. Does he go above Kevin Porter Jr, the guy who was already released out of his rookie contract? I think yes.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#16 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:41 pm

Haha KPJ.
So many **** PJr. in the league....
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#17 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:43 pm

Bleeding Green wrote:I know people hate on Grant Williams, but how many guys drafted after him have really shown anything? Like 4 guys?

I would argue Grant Williams has shown more than even Brandon Clarke so far, despite being 2 yrs younger.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#18 » by Bleeding Green » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:35 pm

I dunno about that, Clarke has been a solid or better rotation player since day 1. Grant is mostly awful with sprinkles of good play here and there. He can singlehandedly lose games for the Celtics if given enough minutes. Grant may end up better, though. He's two years younger and a probably a better shooter with a more diverse potential skillset. Clarke is mostly just a finisher with flashy defense. I think if Grant overtakes him it's not going to be for another couple years and Clarke will have proven to be one of the better rookie contract values from his draft.

Anyway, this could end up being a great draft or a truly awful one, still up in the air. So far none of the players have really shown they can be playable. Grant fouls like a maniac and turns it over way, way too much, Langford barely touches the ball on offense and hasn't done **** when he has, Edwards has barely played. I can see all three being 10+ year players in this league or all being done by 26 depending on how they develop. Meanwhile, there are two players right there they could have just taken at 20 instead of trading out to get Edwards (Thybulle, Clarke), who have already shown they can be positive contributors, even if they are ultimately pretty flawed players as well.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#19 » by djFan71 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:50 pm

Going into this draft I wanted NAW, Clarke, Claxton - whined about it a ton in the draft thread too. Sans trades, we could have had them with our original picks. It's like the one draft I still feel like I may have nailed. 2020 draft I liked so many guys (including Nesmith & PP) that it's really not fair to say that a few I liked are doing well.
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Re: Let's compare the 2019 Celtics Draft to 2016, 2015 and 2004 

Post#20 » by Gomes3PC » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:01 pm

BK_2020 wrote:
Bleeding Green wrote:I know people hate on Grant Williams, but how many guys drafted after him have really shown anything? Like 4 guys?

I would argue Grant Williams has shown more than even Brandon Clarke so far, despite being 2 yrs younger.

Uhhh, what?

Player A: 11.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 Stocks/game, 61% TS%, .158 WS/48, 2.1 BPM
Player B: 3.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 Stocks/game, 52% TS%, .057 WS/48, -3.5 BPM

In every way imaginable, Clarke has been better.

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