Celtics General Thread 2019-20, "Re-Start"

[zoyathedestroya]

The standings (W-L by games, W-L by percentage, Point Differential) agree on a clear 1-2-3 right now. That said, the Celtics are far closer in record to teams #4-8 than they are to #2. Favorites are still the Bucks, Lakers and whoever of the next pack makes a big, successful deadline move or has some other form of strong improvement.

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It could be a close race for 2-4 seeds. Pacers also getting Dipo back. Raptors starting to become healthy again.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ah Christ - great time to sell high and hunker down for next year. This team has won virtually every game it’s supposed to win and struggled against the best teams they play. You can bet on them to keep getting better and play with “enthusiasm” and see if they can make a run, but this is a perfect window to sell high, and if they come down to earth against a tougher string of competition we’ll go into the summer with no momentum, Kanter likely to opt out for a raise, and Hayward a question mark.

[Deivork]

Ah Christ - great time to sell high and hunker down for next year. This team has won virtually every game it’s supposed to win and struggled against the best teams they play. You can bet on them to keep getting better and play with “enthusiasm” and see if they can make a run, but this is a perfect window to sell high, and if they come down to earth against a tougher string of competition we’ll go into the summer with no momentum, Kanter likely to opt out for a raise, and Hayward a question mark.

I kind of agree. Call me naive, but I don't think this team has much of a chance to win the title this year without a serious tweak. Don't get me wrong, I love this team and its energy but the easy schedule and the 3-6 records makes me believe that. I guess Ainge's game still is the long one or... what is the plan? Hayward becomes the next big question.

[Andrew McCeltic]

There is value in consistency.. running it back next season with Hayward, a better Rob Williams, better Grant, maybe another year of Kanter if he opts out and gets our full MLE, plus whatever we can do with our three 1sts/Edwards/(Langford?) to add another blue chip piece in or at the draft - Coby White, Lamelo Ball, Nico Mannion, Cole Anthony? Not the worst thing in the world.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[Gomes3PC]

One other thing to consider regarding SOS - luck to date. Celtics pt differential suggests they are exactly the team they are on pace to be - a 58 win team. Miami is well exceeding expected W-L - they'd be on pace for 50 wins, and Philly is right on pace.

So, yes the C's may fall off that pace a little bit in the 2nd half, but they have a meaningful cushion on Philly (5 games in loss column) and Miami is playing over its head by most metrics so they may come back down to earth.

That's all "in the long run" - teams outpace their projections all the time due to luck, clutch factors, etc. But I wouldn't look at the remaining schedule and think the Cs are obviously in trouble of getting caught by the other big dogs behind Milwaukee.

[Andrew McCeltic]

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The only issue with that frontcourt is that you need three guys to stay healthy instead of just one.. but yeah, it’s serviceable against almost everyone.

Do we have to start worrying about Tatum wanting a supermax?

And what *is* the market for Hayward? Would love to know what teams would be willing to give up.

[3D Chess]

Do we have to start worrying about Tatum wanting a supermax?

He will have to make All-NBA team (in like 4 years) for it to be a possibility, and if he does that, he's very likely earned it.

Can't get the supermax coming off your rookie deal.

[Andrew McCeltic]

This write-up surprised me: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-midseason-report-card-kemba-walker-has-changed-everything-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-becoming-stars/ -

Kemba and Kyrie play similarly -- heavy pick-and-roll, a lot of individual, dribbling-display creation. Walker, in fact, is holding the ball for longer per touch this season (5.13 seconds, per NBA.com) than Kyrie did with Boston last season (4.27 seconds), while also dribbling more times per touch (4.71) than Kyrie did last season (3.91).
So the theory about Kyrie being too ball dominant for the other Celtics to feel involved doesn't necessarily hold water, at least not statistically. In fact, last year's Celtics, on average, made 16 more passes per game than this year's team does.

Is that description missing something? My own eye test would have said Kemba is less ball dominant.. but does he hold the ball in a "different" way than Kyrie did?

[ParticleMan]

This write-up surprised me: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-midseason-report-card-kemba-walker-has-changed-everything-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-becoming-stars/ -

Kemba and Kyrie play similarly -- heavy pick-and-roll, a lot of individual, dribbling-display creation. Walker, in fact, is holding the ball for longer per touch this season (5.13 seconds, per NBA.com) than Kyrie did with Boston last season (4.27 seconds), while also dribbling more times per touch (4.71) than Kyrie did last season (3.91).
So the theory about Kyrie being too ball dominant for the other Celtics to feel involved doesn't necessarily hold water, at least not statistically. In fact, last year's Celtics, on average, made 16 more passes per game than this year's team does.

Is that description missing something? My own eye test would have said Kemba is less ball dominant.. but does he hold the ball in a "different" way than Kyrie did?

can't forget that kyrie really played well and within the system for good stretches last year. it's just when the chips were down, that was when he turned into allen iverson without the toughness. that made it particularly annoying, because we all saw that he was capable of playing in brad's system when he wanted to. his overall stats last year were terrific.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Yeah I'm just trying to figure out my perception, it could be I'm an idiot - like, Kemba has quicker, shorter movements, and Kyrie (like Langford) looks like he's moving at a more deliberate pace with the ball - that could give the impression Kemba is trying to make something happen and Kyrie is slowing down the offense, even when the seconds of possession are about the same.

[zoyathedestroya]

This write-up surprised me: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-midseason-report-card-kemba-walker-has-changed-everything-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-becoming-stars/ -

Kemba and Kyrie play similarly -- heavy pick-and-roll, a lot of individual, dribbling-display creation. Walker, in fact, is holding the ball for longer per touch this season (5.13 seconds, per NBA.com) than Kyrie did with Boston last season (4.27 seconds), while also dribbling more times per touch (4.71) than Kyrie did last season (3.91).
So the theory about Kyrie being too ball dominant for the other Celtics to feel involved doesn't necessarily hold water, at least not statistically. In fact, last year's Celtics, on average, made 16 more passes per game than this year's team does.

Is that description missing something? My own eye test would have said Kemba is less ball dominant.. but does he hold the ball in a "different" way than Kyrie did?

Dribbles/touch stats are among the more misleading stats publicly available. Does that take into account bringing down the ball full court? Kemba bringing the ball across half court more than Kyrie alone would skew his stats. Which he does quite often compared to Kyrie, who had Smart as his backcourt mate for most of last season.

Kemba iso frequency this season = 6.9%
Kyrie iso frequency last season = 13.2%

That's more indicative of their preferred style of play and fit within Stevens' offense.

Kemba's frequency in taking 7+ dribbles before a FGA is indeed higher than Kyrie's last season -- 35.3% vs. 26.2%.

But I think this is due to the fact that we've been running more PnR for Kemba compared to Kyrie last season -- 47.9% vs. 29.4%.

I don't know what the exact stats are concerning PnR vs iso. I do know that the former can create more efficient shots and I think it can set up more opportunities for your teammates.

[Fencer reregistered]

An obvious challenge to superstar-less roster building is money. E.g., a reasonable personnel approach going forward could be:
-- Keep all of Walker, Hayward, Tatum and Brown on max (or in Jaylen's case near-max) salaries.
-- Give Smart a raise from his already 8-figure salary when it's his turn.
-- Keep Kanter around at MLE money (e.g. he opts out and is resigned w/ the MLE)
-- Trade for Bertans and re-sign him to an 8-figure salary.
-- Invest further in the center position (the above doesn't cover any of Theis, RobWill, Fall or other centers.

But wow would that be expensive.

[zoyathedestroya]

Almost halfway thru the season, here are the current 538 CARMELO projections:



Good job by the Nets with the negative point differential.

EDIT: I don't mind this bracketing. Heat already won head-to-head vs. Raptors. So we face Magic 1st round and either Pacers or Heat in the 2nd round.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[reload141]

Almost halfway thru the season, here are the current 538 CARMELO projections:



Good job by the Nets with the negative point differential.

EDIT: I don't mind this bracketing. Heat already won head-to-head vs. Raptors. So we face Magic 1st round and either Pacers or Heat in the 2nd round.

Please tell me they have Memphis not in the top 8.....

[zoyathedestroya]

Almost halfway thru the season, here are the current 538 CARMELO projections:

Spoiler:

Good job by the Nets with the negative point differential.

EDIT: I don't mind this bracketing. Heat already won head-to-head vs. Raptors. So we face Magic 1st round and either Pacers or Heat in the 2nd round.

Please tell me they have Memphis not in the top 8.....

Tied with Spurs and Wolves at 11th to 13th.

[Feed Your Head]

I still think the Grizz pick falls between 9-12, which is still pretty valuable.

[3D Chess]

Almost halfway thru the season, here are the current 538 CARMELO projections:



Good job by the Nets with the negative point differential.

EDIT: I don't mind this bracketing. Heat already won head-to-head vs. Raptors. So we face Magic 1st round and either Pacers or Heat in the 2nd round.

Not much margin for error to drop to 4th, cop Philly then the Bucks...

[exculpatory]

Almost halfway thru the season, here are the current 538 CARMELO projections:



Good job by the Nets with the negative point differential.

EDIT: I don't mind this bracketing. Heat already won head-to-head vs. Raptors. So we face Magic 1st round and either Pacers or Heat in the 2nd round.

Not much margin for error to drop to 4th, cop Philly then the Bucks...

Bad News: This. Worst case scenario.
Good News: Celtics know this & will play hard all season to get the #2 seed.