ImageImageImage

What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

Moderators: ParticleMan, Froob, canman1971, The Comedian, Parliament10, sully00, djFan71

User avatar
zoyathedestroya
RealGM
Posts: 13,615
And1: 33,308
Joined: Nov 05, 2017

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1301 » by zoyathedestroya » Mon May 3, 2021 9:10 pm

Kuzma still better.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1302 » by The Comedian » Mon May 3, 2021 9:36 pm

This isn’t a huge surprise, though I’d have thought IT would have maybe gotten it.

Read on Twitter
?s=20
User avatar
bisme37
Head Coach
Posts: 6,695
And1: 17,574
Joined: May 24, 2014
 

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1303 » by bisme37 » Mon May 3, 2021 9:40 pm

The Comedian wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


Following up on the topic on the GB, I’d probably rank him 9th, but wouldn’t argue with anyone who has him in the 11-13 range either.


Yeah agreed. He's around 9th in my mind, maybe 8th. It's just hard to know when it's reasonable to move a young fella like JT ahead of vets who've been doing it for longer and have the reputation of a top 10 player.

Looking forward to his multiple League and Finals MVP awards but I guess I have to be patient.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1304 » by The Comedian » Mon May 3, 2021 9:45 pm

bisme37 wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


Following up on the topic on the GB, I’d probably rank him 9th, but wouldn’t argue with anyone who has him in the 11-13 range either.


Yeah agreed. He's around 9th in my mind, maybe 8th. It's just hard to know when it's reasonable to move a young fella like JT ahead of vets who've been doing it for longer and have the reputation of a top 10 player.

Looking forward to his multiple League and Finals MVP awards but I guess I have to be patient.


It’s one thing I will say about the GB, outside of a few stragglers, almost everyone is crazy high on JT.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1305 » by The Comedian » Mon May 3, 2021 10:50 pm

So it’s time for an actual breakdown of JT’s game, I like contributing something other than gif’s every now and then. It’s LONG, so will put it in spoilers :lol:

Spoiler:
First off, raw stats. There’s a strong chance he’s going to average something like 27/8/4.5+ on the season, which is just ridiculous for a guy in his age 22 season. His TS is up to 58%, and chances are he’d be close to 60% if he never got Covid. He’s done this despite defenses loading up on him on a majority of his possessions, to an extent that only a handful of other guys in the league deal with.

For comparisons sake, in Durant’s age 22 season he averaged 28/7/3 on a 59% TS, and Tatum even has the edge in those numbers per 100 possessions. KD had a 13.2% assist rate, and a 10.6 turnover rate. Tatum is at 20.7% and 10.5%.

On the other side, Durant had a .439% FTr, Tatum is at .256, though it’s a good amount higher than that since the ASB. But it needs to be much higher than that going forward, and consistently. Durant was an unreal finisher this year, shot 80% at the rim, and took .165% of his shots there, and finishes at 74% for his career. This year JT is shooting 73% at the rim, and takes .186% of his shots there, WELL below his career number of .248%.

He’s being far more selective in his looks at the rim, in exchange for more short mid range shots. From 3-10 feet, he’s shooting 42% as opposed to 36% for his career, and he’s taking .216% of his shots from there, as opposed to .157% for his career. He’s taking the least amount of deep two’s of his career, by a small amount, which is beautiful to see.

ISO scoring has been a legitimate weak spot this year, is in the 39th percentile, on 18.4% frequency. Last year he was in the 76th percentile, on 15.8% frequency, so he’s shown he can be a dangerous ISO scorer. He needs to learn the pick his spots better, cut off the ball a bit more, and make quicker decisions passing the ball.

Something that he’s been better with lately, getting out in transition. He’s in the 93rd percentile as a transition scorer, by far the best on the team, but gets out on the break a good amount less than most other top players. Part of that is scheme and him rebounding the ball, but I’d love to see Brad have someone else hang back and have Tatum get out on the break more. He’s pretty close to unstoppable on the break, do it more man.

Next, crunch time numbers. A 60% TS, which is obviously awesome, and his assist rate is actually higher in these situations than the rest of the game (21.1%) which I love to see, though his TO rate is slightly higher than the rest of the game as well. He’s starting to recognize how to use defenses loading up on him and forcing Jaylen, Kemba, Smart, etc beat them. Unfortunately they are all struggling in the clutch, Jaylen has a 51.4% TS, Kemba 37%, and Smart 54%. But the fact that Tatum is looking for guys in these situations is big, and eventually the other guys will start hitting their shots more. Just about building the right habits, even if we aren’t winning enough of these games this season.

He needs to pick up his defense, he was one of the best defensive players in the league last year, this season he’s been pretty average. One season isn’t enough to make you one of the premier two way players in the league. But coming off the short offseason, and covid, I think we can expect him to be better on that end next season.

To sum it up, some question how much better Tatum can get. The answer is A LOT, imagine what he’s going to do once he picks his spots better in ISO, in addition to him getting to the line like he’s been doing, and his playmaking rapidly improving like it has. As much as I’ve always been really bullish on Tatum, I thought his peak would be more top 4-8 player, but if the improvements in getting to the line and playmaking is for real? There’s nothing stopping him from being a top MVP candidate, in his prime. Which, as crazy as it is, he’s about three or four seasons away from even entering.

I’m going to do one on Jaylen as well, either later tonight or tomorrow. Pretty fun to do under the influence of edibles, though a bit difficult to maintain my focus lol.
Fencer reregistered
RealGM
Posts: 28,914
And1: 15,796
Joined: Oct 25, 2006

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1306 » by Fencer reregistered » Mon May 3, 2021 11:05 pm

The Comedian wrote:This isn’t a huge surprise, though I’d have thought IT would have maybe gotten it.

Read on Twitter
?s=20


2x in the same month, so Player of the Month has to be a consideration. Unfortunately, the month did also include those back-to-back games in both of which he shot 3-17 with 5 TOs.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1307 » by The Comedian » Mon May 3, 2021 11:08 pm

Fencer reregistered wrote:
The Comedian wrote:This isn’t a huge surprise, though I’d have thought IT would have maybe gotten it.

Read on Twitter
?s=20


2x in the same month, so Player of the Month has to be a consideration. Unfortunately, the month did also include those back-to-back games in both of which he shot 3-17 with 5 TOs.


Ended up averaging 30/9/5 on a 62% TS for the month lol, crazy. Team went 11-4 in the games he played as well, I believe. Westbrook or Randle may get consideration, but I’d guess Tatum will get it.
playa-hater
Analyst
Posts: 3,053
And1: 3,071
Joined: Aug 29, 2020
 

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1308 » by playa-hater » Tue May 4, 2021 3:11 am

The Comedian wrote:So it’s time for an actual breakdown of JT’s game, I like contributing something other than gif’s every now and then. It’s LONG, so will put it in spoilers :lol:

Spoiler:
First off, raw stats. There’s a strong chance he’s going to average something like 27/8/4.5+ on the season, which is just ridiculous for a guy in his age 22 season. His TS is up to 58%, and chances are he’d be close to 60% if he never got Covid. He’s done this despite defenses loading up on him on a majority of his possessions, to an extent that only a handful of other guys in the league deal with.

For comparisons sake, in Durant’s age 22 season he averaged 28/7/3 on a 59% TS, and Tatum even has the edge in those numbers per 100 possessions. KD had a 13.2% assist rate, and a 10.6 turnover rate. Tatum is at 20.7% and 10.5%.

On the other side, Durant had a .439% FTr, Tatum is at .256, though it’s a good amount higher than that since the ASB. But it needs to be much higher than that going forward, and consistently. Durant was an unreal finisher this year, shot 80% at the rim, and took .165% of his shots there, and finishes at 74% for his career. This year JT is shooting 73% at the rim, and takes .186% of his shots there, WELL below his career number of .248%.

He’s being far more selective in his looks at the rim, in exchange for more short mid range shots. From 3-10 feet, he’s shooting 42% as opposed to 36% for his career, and he’s taking .216% of his shots from there, as opposed to .157% for his career. He’s taking the least amount of deep two’s of his career, by a small amount, which is beautiful to see.

ISO scoring has been a legitimate weak spot this year, is in the 39th percentile, on 18.4% frequency. Last year he was in the 76th percentile, on 15.8% frequency, so he’s shown he can be a dangerous ISO scorer. He needs to learn the pick his spots better, cut off the ball a bit more, and make quicker decisions passing the ball.

Something that he’s been better with lately, getting out in transition. He’s in the 93rd percentile as a transition scorer, by far the best on the team, but gets out on the break a good amount less than most other top players. Part of that is scheme and him rebounding the ball, but I’d love to see Brad have someone else hang back and have Tatum get out on the break more. He’s pretty close to unstoppable on the break, do it more man.

Next, crunch time numbers. A 60% TS, which is obviously awesome, and his assist rate is actually higher in these situations than the rest of the game (21.1%) which I love to see, though his TO rate is slightly higher than the rest of the game as well. He’s starting to recognize how to use defenses loading up on him and forcing Jaylen, Kemba, Smart, etc beat them. Unfortunately they are all struggling in the clutch, Jaylen has a 51.4% TS, Kemba 37%, and Smart 54%. But the fact that Tatum is looking for guys in these situations is big, and eventually the other guys will start hitting their shots more. Just about building the right habits, even if we aren’t winning enough of these games this season.

He needs to pick up his defense, he was one of the best defensive players in the league last year, this season he’s been pretty average. One season isn’t enough to make you one of the premier two way players in the league. But coming off the short offseason, and covid, I think we can expect him to be better on that end next season.

To sum it up, some question how much better Tatum can get. The answer is A LOT, imagine what he’s going to do once he picks his spots better in ISO, in addition to him getting to the line like he’s been doing, and his playmaking rapidly improving like it has. As much as I’ve always been really bullish on Tatum, I thought his peak would be more top 4-8 player, but if the improvements in getting to the line and playmaking is for real? There’s nothing stopping him from being a top MVP candidate, in his prime. Which, as crazy as it is, he’s about three or four seasons away from even entering.

I’m going to do one on Jaylen as well, either later tonight or tomorrow. Pretty fun to do under the influence of edibles, though a bit difficult to maintain my focus lol.


I am not really a stat guy, rather like watching film, but this was a nice read.
Boston will never win 18 BECAUSE of Brad Stevens
User avatar
3D Chess
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,605
And1: 8,322
Joined: Mar 17, 2017
Location: Brooklyn
 

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1309 » by 3D Chess » Tue May 4, 2021 5:00 am

The Comedian wrote:Pretty fun to do under the influence of edibles, though a bit difficult to maintain my focus lol.

Awesome post, and I lol'd hard at this.

Looking forward to the JB version.
User avatar
zoyathedestroya
RealGM
Posts: 13,615
And1: 33,308
Joined: Nov 05, 2017

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1310 » by zoyathedestroya » Tue May 4, 2021 8:03 pm

Julius Randle beat out Tatum for Player of the Month. Celtics lost one more game than the Knicks in April.

EDIT: Both Tatum and Randle went 11-4. Cs lost one without Tatum.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1311 » by The Comedian » Tue May 4, 2021 9:45 pm

zoyathedestroya wrote:Julius Randle beat out Tatum for Player of the Month. Celtics lost one more game than the Knicks in April.

EDIT: Both Tatum and Randle went 11-4. Cs lost one without Tatum.


Think Tatum probably got penalized for having a much better second guy than the Randle has.

30/9/5 on a 62% TS for Tatum
27/9/6 on a 57% TS for Randle.

But Randle is kind of an awesome story, so oh well.
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 7,508
And1: 4,721
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1312 » by cloverleaf » Wed May 5, 2021 2:01 pm

The Comedian wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:Julius Randle beat out Tatum for Player of the Month. Celtics lost one more game than the Knicks in April.

EDIT: Both Tatum and Randle went 11-4. Cs lost one without Tatum.


Think Tatum probably got penalized for having a much better second guy than the Randle has.

30/9/5 on a 62% TS for Tatum
27/9/6 on a 57% TS for Randle.

But Randle is kind of an awesome story, so oh well.


Randle with significantly more boards and assists and better defensive rating.
User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1313 » by The Comedian » Wed May 5, 2021 2:10 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:Julius Randle beat out Tatum for Player of the Month. Celtics lost one more game than the Knicks in April.

EDIT: Both Tatum and Randle went 11-4. Cs lost one without Tatum.


Think Tatum probably got penalized for having a much better second guy than the Randle has.

30/9/5 on a 62% TS for Tatum
27/9/6 on a 57% TS for Randle.

But Randle is kind of an awesome story, so oh well.


Randle with significantly more boards and assists and better defensive rating.


Tatum averaged 9.1 boards a game in April, Randle averaged 9. Don’t know where you got that “significant edge” from, though his 6.3 to 4.5 assists is a pretty big edge. Had a net rating edge of +7 to +5.1 as well.

3 more ppg on a much higher TS for Tatum, and their teams had the same record in the games they played. I didn’t say Randle wasn’t deserving, just that Tatum got penalized for having a better second player than the Knicks.
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 7,508
And1: 4,721
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1314 » by cloverleaf » Wed May 5, 2021 2:20 pm

The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Think Tatum probably got penalized for having a much better second guy than the Randle has.

30/9/5 on a 62% TS for Tatum
27/9/6 on a 57% TS for Randle.

But Randle is kind of an awesome story, so oh well.


Randle with significantly more boards and assists and better defensive rating.


Tatum averaged 9.1 boards a game in April, Randle averaged 9. Don’t know where you got that “significant edge” from, though his 6.3 to 4.5 assists is a pretty big edge. Had a net rating edge of +7 to +5.1 as well.

3 more ppg on a much higher TS for Tatum, and their teams had the same record in the games they played. I didn’t say Randle wasn’t deserving, just that Tatum got penalized for having a better second player than the Knicks.


Yeah, I was lazy--just looking at season averages.
User avatar
31to6
RealGM
Posts: 15,023
And1: 19,714
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: all your picks

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1315 » by 31to6 » Wed May 5, 2021 3:46 pm

playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:So it’s time for an actual breakdown of JT’s game, I like contributing something other than gif’s every now and then. It’s LONG, so will put it in spoilers :lol:

Spoiler:
First off, raw stats. There’s a strong chance he’s going to average something like 27/8/4.5+ on the season, which is just ridiculous for a guy in his age 22 season. His TS is up to 58%, and chances are he’d be close to 60% if he never got Covid. He’s done this despite defenses loading up on him on a majority of his possessions, to an extent that only a handful of other guys in the league deal with.

For comparisons sake, in Durant’s age 22 season he averaged 28/7/3 on a 59% TS, and Tatum even has the edge in those numbers per 100 possessions. KD had a 13.2% assist rate, and a 10.6 turnover rate. Tatum is at 20.7% and 10.5%.

On the other side, Durant had a .439% FTr, Tatum is at .256, though it’s a good amount higher than that since the ASB. But it needs to be much higher than that going forward, and consistently. Durant was an unreal finisher this year, shot 80% at the rim, and took .165% of his shots there, and finishes at 74% for his career. This year JT is shooting 73% at the rim, and takes .186% of his shots there, WELL below his career number of .248%.

He’s being far more selective in his looks at the rim, in exchange for more short mid range shots. From 3-10 feet, he’s shooting 42% as opposed to 36% for his career, and he’s taking .216% of his shots from there, as opposed to .157% for his career. He’s taking the least amount of deep two’s of his career, by a small amount, which is beautiful to see.

ISO scoring has been a legitimate weak spot this year, is in the 39th percentile, on 18.4% frequency. Last year he was in the 76th percentile, on 15.8% frequency, so he’s shown he can be a dangerous ISO scorer. He needs to learn the pick his spots better, cut off the ball a bit more, and make quicker decisions passing the ball.

Something that he’s been better with lately, getting out in transition. He’s in the 93rd percentile as a transition scorer, by far the best on the team, but gets out on the break a good amount less than most other top players. Part of that is scheme and him rebounding the ball, but I’d love to see Brad have someone else hang back and have Tatum get out on the break more. He’s pretty close to unstoppable on the break, do it more man.

Next, crunch time numbers. A 60% TS, which is obviously awesome, and his assist rate is actually higher in these situations than the rest of the game (21.1%) which I love to see, though his TO rate is slightly higher than the rest of the game as well. He’s starting to recognize how to use defenses loading up on him and forcing Jaylen, Kemba, Smart, etc beat them. Unfortunately they are all struggling in the clutch, Jaylen has a 51.4% TS, Kemba 37%, and Smart 54%. But the fact that Tatum is looking for guys in these situations is big, and eventually the other guys will start hitting their shots more. Just about building the right habits, even if we aren’t winning enough of these games this season.

He needs to pick up his defense, he was one of the best defensive players in the league last year, this season he’s been pretty average. One season isn’t enough to make you one of the premier two way players in the league. But coming off the short offseason, and covid, I think we can expect him to be better on that end next season.

To sum it up, some question how much better Tatum can get. The answer is A LOT, imagine what he’s going to do once he picks his spots better in ISO, in addition to him getting to the line like he’s been doing, and his playmaking rapidly improving like it has. As much as I’ve always been really bullish on Tatum, I thought his peak would be more top 4-8 player, but if the improvements in getting to the line and playmaking is for real? There’s nothing stopping him from being a top MVP candidate, in his prime. Which, as crazy as it is, he’s about three or four seasons away from even entering.

I’m going to do one on Jaylen as well, either later tonight or tomorrow. Pretty fun to do under the influence of edibles, though a bit difficult to maintain my focus lol.


I am not really a stat guy, rather like watching film, but this was a nice read.


Yeah that was a great read, Comedian -- even if I clicked on the 'spoiler' totally expecting some sort of gag gif, and was disappointed when I actually had to, you know, READ. Good stuff!
with buckners and playa-hater on the TACKO FALL FAN CLUB -- we GO BIG or I guess, go home. But we prefer to GO BIG!
JediMasterRevan
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,258
And1: 687
Joined: Nov 06, 2020
 

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1316 » by JediMasterRevan » Wed May 5, 2021 5:47 pm

So this guy gonna be a 6'10 inch Steph Curry?
FIRE DANNY
User avatar
31to6
RealGM
Posts: 15,023
And1: 19,714
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: all your picks

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1317 » by 31to6 » Wed May 5, 2021 5:50 pm

JediMasterRevan wrote:So this guy gonna be a 6'10 inch Steph Curry?


more like a 6'8" KD ;)
with buckners and playa-hater on the TACKO FALL FAN CLUB -- we GO BIG or I guess, go home. But we prefer to GO BIG!
User avatar
zoyathedestroya
RealGM
Posts: 13,615
And1: 33,308
Joined: Nov 05, 2017

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1318 » by zoyathedestroya » Wed May 5, 2021 7:46 pm

User avatar
The Comedian
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 13,144
And1: 35,425
Joined: Jun 25, 2006
       

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1319 » by The Comedian » Thu May 6, 2021 3:06 am

Over the teams last 15 games, and Tatum’s last 14, he’s averaging 31/9/5 on a 62% TS.

My favorite part, is that he’s taking 7.8 free throws a game in that time.
playa-hater
Analyst
Posts: 3,053
And1: 3,071
Joined: Aug 29, 2020
 

Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1320 » by playa-hater » Thu May 6, 2021 3:23 am

The Comedian wrote:Over the teams last 15 games, and Tatum’s last 14, he’s averaging 31/9/5 on a 62% TS.

My favorite part, is that he’s taking 7.8 free throws a game in that time.


So next year a full season and hopefully no Covid like missed time. I don't see why Tatum couldn't get near those numbers full-season (hard I know)

and IF he did, he would have to be top 3 MVP Right??
Boston will never win 18 BECAUSE of Brad Stevens

Return to Boston Celtics