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What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1321 » by The Comedian » Thu May 6, 2021 3:48 am

playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:Over the teams last 15 games, and Tatum’s last 14, he’s averaging 31/9/5 on a 62% TS.

My favorite part, is that he’s taking 7.8 free throws a game in that time.


So next year a full season and hopefully no Covid like missed time. I don't see why Tatum couldn't get near those numbers full-season (hard I know)

and IF he did, he would have to be top 3 MVP Right??


I think scoring may drop a bit next season, generally speaking, as it’s crazy inflated this year. But I think something like 28/8/5 on a 60% TS is pretty likely, and yeah he’s knocking on the door of that MVP tier.

He’s the one guy we just can’t afford to lose, even for a couple of games. He’s a pretty awesome floor raiser, even if he hasn’t quite figured out how to be an elite ceiling raiser yet.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1322 » by playa-hater » Thu May 6, 2021 3:58 am

The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:Over the teams last 15 games, and Tatum’s last 14, he’s averaging 31/9/5 on a 62% TS.

My favorite part, is that he’s taking 7.8 free throws a game in that time.


So next year a full season and hopefully no Covid like missed time. I don't see why Tatum couldn't get near those numbers full-season (hard I know)

and IF he did, he would have to be top 3 MVP Right??


I think scoring may drop a bit next season, generally speaking, as it’s crazy inflated this year. But I think something like 28/8/5 on a 60% TS is pretty likely, and yeah he’s knocking on the door of that MVP tier.

He’s the one guy we just can’t afford to lose, even for a couple of games. Last time he sat out we lost to OKC lol, he’s a pretty awesome floor raiser, even if he hasn’t quite figured out how to be an elite ceiling raiser yet.


my 3 hopes for Tatum is

play aggressive to start games

keep driving/drawing fouls

learn to "trust" teammates in crunch time.. * I truly feel his confidence in himself + idea that he needs to be a finisher (ala Kobe) works against him at times.

Improve those 3 things and he is in the top 3 MVP race...
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1323 » by The Comedian » Thu May 6, 2021 4:03 am

playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:
So next year a full season and hopefully no Covid like missed time. I don't see why Tatum couldn't get near those numbers full-season (hard I know)

and IF he did, he would have to be top 3 MVP Right??


I think scoring may drop a bit next season, generally speaking, as it’s crazy inflated this year. But I think something like 28/8/5 on a 60% TS is pretty likely, and yeah he’s knocking on the door of that MVP tier.

He’s the one guy we just can’t afford to lose, even for a couple of games. Last time he sat out we lost to OKC lol, he’s a pretty awesome floor raiser, even if he hasn’t quite figured out how to be an elite ceiling raiser yet.


my 3 hopes for Tatum is

play aggressive to start games

keep driving/drawing fouls

learn to "trust" teammates in crunch time.. * I truly feel his confidence in himself + idea that he needs to be a finisher (ala Kobe) works against him at times.

Improve those 3 things and he is in the top 3 MVP race...


The trusting teammates in crunch time is something that I’ve been really impressed with, his assist rate in clutch situations is higher than his season average, and that’s with Kemba, Jaylen, and Smart all shooting well below their season numbers in those situations.

I feel like a lot of stars are somewhat passive to start games, because they know they can get theirs whenever. But I agree, there’s way too many first quarters where he drops 2-4 points or so.

Strongly agree on him needing to continue being aggressive getting to the line, that’s a game changer for his upside.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1324 » by celticfan42487 » Thu May 6, 2021 4:13 am

I think the one realistic (as far as realistic goes for anyone improving and breaking the celling is) Tatum's area to improve is playmaking.

This season he's averaging 4.4 aspg to 2.7 turnovers. a 1.6 A/TO ratio isn't really turning anyone's heads and for now reduces him to just a great individual scorer and floor spacer but not quite yet someone you would want to have the ball in their hands to run an offense.

Unless he goes the James Harden route and spams 3s and finds a way to draw about 2x as many fouls per game as he does and gets those 34 ppg 36ppg seasons that Harden has on similar efficiencies to what Tatum is doing now. Then he can enter into the MVP discussion. That's a really tough ask though and it's more likely he finds hidden passing talent he hasn't unlocked before to become a PG level playmaker for his team mates. Someone you can give the ball to and have total confidence he'll score or he's about to get an open shot for a team mate.

It's a really hard level to ascend too, but James Harden at his age was entering his second season with the Rockets and putting up not dramatically different numbers than what Tatum is now (okay 2x the FTs but Tatum has 2x the defense the point is he grew his 3PT attempts and playmaking until he hit MVP level around age 28).
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1325 » by BK_2020 » Thu May 6, 2021 12:31 pm

Harden's age 23 efficiency was 112 TS+. It's light-years ahead of where Tatum is. His assist rate was also much higher.
The caveat that Harden was half year older but Tatum never looked like an efficient scorer. Tatum is a perennial all-nba player going forward but it's simply not true that his scoring numbers were not dramatically different than Tatum's.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1326 » by Parliament10 » Sat May 8, 2021 8:05 am

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1327 » by cloverleaf » Sat May 8, 2021 4:07 pm

Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1328 » by Parliament10 » Sat May 8, 2021 4:18 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.

What for?
He's got his money. He's got his Family.

He could Quit today, and be Happy.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1329 » by The Comedian » Sat May 8, 2021 4:20 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.


It’s kind of weird how consistently negative you are about the team’s best player. I’m not going to look through your posts, but I’d guess 50% of your posts since you’ve been back are taking shots at Tatum, or playing armchair psychologist with his mentality. He’s way ahead of his age pretty much across the board, including playing within a team offense.

I know being a contrarian is cool and all, but it’s pretty tired, and lacks any real substance. An extremely high percentage of the fan base is ecstatic with him, but have fun not being able to enjoy one of the three or four best building blocks in the league.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1330 » by cloverleaf » Sat May 8, 2021 7:04 pm

The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.


It’s kind of weird how consistently negative you are about the team’s best player. I’m not going to look through your posts, but I’d guess 50% of your posts since you’ve been back are taking shots at Tatum, or playing armchair psychologist with his mentality. He’s way ahead of his age pretty much across the board, including playing within a team offense.

I know being a contrarian is cool and all, but it’s pretty tired, and lacks any real substance. An extremely high percentage of the fan base is ecstatic with him, but have fun not being able to enjoy one of the three or four best building blocks in the league.


I find I pretty reliably disagree with your takes on players and the team. But are you basically giving me a warning as a moderator not to keep posting my opinion here?
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1331 » by The Comedian » Sat May 8, 2021 7:06 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.


It’s kind of weird how consistently negative you are about the team’s best player. I’m not going to look through your posts, but I’d guess 50% of your posts since you’ve been back are taking shots at Tatum, or playing armchair psychologist with his mentality. He’s way ahead of his age pretty much across the board, including playing within a team offense.

I know being a contrarian is cool and all, but it’s pretty tired, and lacks any real substance. An extremely high percentage of the fan base is ecstatic with him, but have fun not being able to enjoy one of the three or four best building blocks in the league.


I find I pretty reliably disagree with your takes on players and the team. But are you basically giving me a warning as a moderator not to keep posting my opinion here?


Nowhere did I say you can’t post your opinion, just that posting the same thing over and over is pretty tired, and that the posts lack substance.

You’re free to post whatever you like, just like others are able to disagree with you.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1332 » by cloverleaf » Sat May 8, 2021 7:15 pm

The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
It’s kind of weird how consistently negative you are about the team’s best player. I’m not going to look through your posts, but I’d guess 50% of your posts since you’ve been back are taking shots at Tatum, or playing armchair psychologist with his mentality. He’s way ahead of his age pretty much across the board, including playing within a team offense.

I know being a contrarian is cool and all, but it’s pretty tired, and lacks any real substance. An extremely high percentage of the fan base is ecstatic with him, but have fun not being able to enjoy one of the three or four best building blocks in the league.


I find I pretty reliably disagree with your takes on players and the team. But are you basically giving me a warning as a moderator not to keep posting my opinion here?


Nowhere did I say you can’t post your opinion, just that posting the same thing over and over is pretty tired, and that the posts lack substance.

You’re free to post whatever you like, just like others are able to disagree with you.


Okay, but you are way, way off in your accusation that anywhere near half my posts since I've been back are anti-Tatum posts. (I also am pretty sure my original post to this thread was that he could well win multiple championships and be a league MVP.)

But at least it is out now that we mutually find each other's posts uninsightful.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1333 » by The Comedian » Sat May 8, 2021 7:21 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
I find I pretty reliably disagree with your takes on players and the team. But are you basically giving me a warning as a moderator not to keep posting my opinion here?


Nowhere did I say you can’t post your opinion, just that posting the same thing over and over is pretty tired, and that the posts lack substance.

You’re free to post whatever you like, just like others are able to disagree with you.


Okay, but you are way, way off in your accusation that anywhere near half my posts since I've been back are anti-Tatum posts. (I also am pretty sure my original post to this thread was that he could well win multiple championships and be a league MVP.)

But at least it is out now that we mutually find each other's posts uninsightful.


It’s a significant amount of your posts, which is fine, you’re allowed to criticize players of course. But there’s a line between criticizing a player, and doing nothing other than criticizing said player. You are much closer to the latter the last couple months, take a look for yourself if you’d like. It’s no different than what a handful of posters do with Jaylen, and those posters aren’t taken seriously because of it.

As to your last point, that’s fine. Like I’ve always said to people here, if we all agreed, the place would be pretty boring.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1334 » by cloverleaf » Sat May 8, 2021 7:32 pm

The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Nowhere did I say you can’t post your opinion, just that posting the same thing over and over is pretty tired, and that the posts lack substance.

You’re free to post whatever you like, just like others are able to disagree with you.


Okay, but you are way, way off in your accusation that anywhere near half my posts since I've been back are anti-Tatum posts. (I also am pretty sure my original post to this thread was that he could well win multiple championships and be a league MVP.)

But at least it is out now that we mutually find each other's posts uninsightful.


It’s a significant amount of your posts, which is fine, you’re allowed to criticize players of course. But there’s a line between criticizing a player, and doing nothing other than criticizing said player. You are much closer to the latter, take a look for yourself if you’d like. It’s no different than what a handful of posters do with Jaylen, and those posters aren’t taken seriously because of it.

As to your last point, that’s fine. Like I’ve always said to people here, if we all agreed, the place would be pretty boring.


And I just suggest you peek in the mirror you are trying to hold up to me, as far as who is taken seriously.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1335 » by The Comedian » Sat May 8, 2021 7:37 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
Okay, but you are way, way off in your accusation that anywhere near half my posts since I've been back are anti-Tatum posts. (I also am pretty sure my original post to this thread was that he could well win multiple championships and be a league MVP.)

But at least it is out now that we mutually find each other's posts uninsightful.


It’s a significant amount of your posts, which is fine, you’re allowed to criticize players of course. But there’s a line between criticizing a player, and doing nothing other than criticizing said player. You are much closer to the latter, take a look for yourself if you’d like. It’s no different than what a handful of posters do with Jaylen, and those posters aren’t taken seriously because of it.

As to your last point, that’s fine. Like I’ve always said to people here, if we all agreed, the place would be pretty boring.


And I just suggest you peek in the mirror you are trying to hold up to me, as far as who is taken seriously.


:lol: oh well then.

Anyways, I think we’ve derailed the thread enough. Don’t want to distract people from how great Tatum has been.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1336 » by cloverleaf » Sat May 8, 2021 7:51 pm

The Comedian wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
It’s a significant amount of your posts, which is fine, you’re allowed to criticize players of course. But there’s a line between criticizing a player, and doing nothing other than criticizing said player. You are much closer to the latter, take a look for yourself if you’d like. It’s no different than what a handful of posters do with Jaylen, and those posters aren’t taken seriously because of it.

As to your last point, that’s fine. Like I’ve always said to people here, if we all agreed, the place would be pretty boring.


And I just suggest you peek in the mirror you are trying to hold up to me, as far as who is taken seriously.


:lol: oh well then.

Anyways, I think we’ve derailed the thread enough. Don’t want to distract people from how great Tatum has been.


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1337 » by MagicBagley18 » Sat May 8, 2021 9:35 pm

cloverleaf wrote:
Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Poor, poor Jayson, who signed over $200M in contracts before he turned 23.

Part of it IMO is actually on the suck-up Celtics media who never ask him about the bad iso play, dribbling into traffic, holding onto the ball through full possessions, etc. He never is even asked to respond to the real nature of fans' frustrations.


Respond exactly to the nature of what fans frustrations? He’s been great since the all star break and unreal the last month. He had a terrible game against the bulls- really bad but he’s been far and away our best player. It’s not even close.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1338 » by 31to6 » Sat May 8, 2021 10:17 pm

okay so I have a specific Tatum complaint that I'm curious if anyone has an opinion on:
multiple times I've seen him give zero resistance at the rim defensively this season.
probably figuring he's in the restricted circle and doesn't want to give someone an '+1' -- but it's seemed glaring
I don't have highlights queued up about it, nor can I point you to specific games.

So:
1. has anyone else noticed this?
2. anyone know Tatum's defensive metrics at the rim this season?

It seems like an area for growth, for him. Sometimes you've got to foul a guy, just because.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1339 » by The Comedian » Sat May 8, 2021 10:25 pm

31to6 wrote:okay so I have a specific Tatum complaint that I'm curious if anyone has an opinion on:
multiple times I've seen him give zero resistance at the rim defensively this season.
probably figuring he's in the restricted circle and doesn't want to give someone an '+1' -- but it's seemed glaring
I don't have highlights queued up about it, nor can I point you to specific games.

So:
1. has anyone else noticed this?
2. anyone know Tatum's defensive metrics at the rim this season?

It seems like an area for growth, for him. Sometimes you've got to foul a guy, just because.


Has by far the lowest block rate of his career, he was a chase down block monster as times last year, I miss those. Fouls are down too, he’s absolutely playing less aggressive defense than last year.

A guy with his length should be averaging more than .4 blocks a game. I expect to see his defensive effort rise in the playoffs, otherwise I’d be pretty annoyed.

I tried checking metrics, this shows that he actually attempts .1 more blocks a game than last year. But stats like that are tough, I don’t really buy it lol.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628369/misc/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628369/misc/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1340 » by 31to6 » Sat May 8, 2021 10:50 pm

Thanks Comedian. I know this is a very minor point, and I don't mean to distract from the fact that I am a big Tatum fan, and hope he develops into a guy that can lead us to the next banners -- but it seems like a weakness re: having him as our starting 4 indefinitely. Maybe it's been mentioned in GTs. Or maybe it's nothing in which case carry on.
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