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What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1421 » by The Comedian » Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:09 pm

It’s crazy how scared teams already are of him lighting them up, also shows why we need to get him real help.

His 1.61 assist-to-turnover rate still lagged behind his top competitors, despite being double teamed on more than 20 possessions per game, the most among non-guards this season.


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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1422 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:05 pm

He's 100% right. His passing steps have been as if not more important the increase in PPG. He's gone from an assist rate of 8% to 10% to 15% to 20% last year, and 23% in the playoffs this year, all while keeping his turnover rate consistent at ~10%. That's not exactly putting him in Luka territory, but if he can consistently get that up in the ~25% range with another development step, he'll be in the range guys like KD and Kawhi have attained at their peak powers.

Given this was the first year I felt he had true "primary initiator" responsibility, and he's only entering his 5th year in the league, there would seem to be a good jump to go from here. KDs assist rate in year 4 was 13%; for Kawhi it was 13%; for Paul George it was 18%; for Paul Pierce it was 16%. All those guys eclipsed 25% assist rates at their peaks (well, George is at 24.6% this year, technically).

Barring a total flatlining in improvement, I suspect Tatum will continue to make good strides as a passer, especially now that he's seeing how teams double him, trap him, play him away from the ball, etc.

Where I really want to see him work is on grifting. His FT rate is stagnant at a paltry 26%, though over his career it has spiked in the playoffs up to a career-best 44% this year. I suspect part of this is Tatum "pacing" himself in the regular season and being more assertive in the playoffs. Not necessarily something I mind, but I think the whole team would benefit and he would get more of a friendly whistle if he consistently drove during the regular season. After reverting his tendencies last year, he fell prey to way too many midrange shots last year (44% of shots were from 3-23 feet, up from 37% last year). He's got to further tighten his handle and also just be more assertive to not give up on his drives halfway, settling for those 8-15 foot jumpers. He didn't even shoot them particularly well, hitting just ~40% of those midrange shots.

So - in sum, be patient with him as a playmaker, it will continue to come. But if we want to see him leap to a true ALPHA, he's got to ditch the midrange and start barreling at the rim more. Shifting 10% of those crummy shots for rim shots (or 3s) will make a huge difference not just for him but for the whole team.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1423 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:28 pm

The double team rate also speaks to just how little teams thought of our other threats out there next to Tatum, particularly when Brown was not out there.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1424 » by playa-hater » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:24 am

Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1425 » by The Comedian » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:32 am

playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.


Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1426 » by playa-hater » Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:33 am

The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.


Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.


Tatum played much of the year with some atrocious lineups in particularly the 2 Big lineups of Theis and TT. But when I watch him straight up cover a player, he seemingly shuts him down. Many have said Tatum is one of the better/best 2 way players. Defense is one of those 2 ways.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1427 » by The Comedian » Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:36 am

playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.


Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.


Tatum played much of the year with some atrocious lineups in particularly the 2 Big lineups of Theis and TT. But when I watch him straight up cover a player, he seemingly shuts him down. Many have said Tatum is one of the better/best 2 way players. Defense is one of those 2 ways.


Do not need to tell me, I’m all in on Tatum as a two way superstar. I’m just saying this year he wasn’t great defensively, but I think the short offseason and covid played a big part in it.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1428 » by Justin33 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:18 am

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1429 » by CelticsPride18 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:22 am

Celtics better spend that money that he lost on the team. I don’t want any luxury tax excuses.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1430 » by playa-hater » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:23 am

Justin33 wrote:
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1431 » by Justin33 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:26 am

playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?


Nope real
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1432 » by makubesu » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:28 am

My big fear is that Tatum will think “if I was in New York/Los Angeles I’d have made all-nba”
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1433 » by itrsteve » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:32 am

I hope he and Jaylen have a huge chip harness that energy for next year.

Also that Beal max just got bigger.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1434 » by Tatumfor2 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:49 am

Justin33 wrote:
playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?


Nope real



I'm irrationally mad about this. :banghead:
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1435 » by The Comedian » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:07 am

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1436 » by PierceFan4ever » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:13 am

Thanks Danny for creating such a garbage team for Tatum this season.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1437 » by The Comedian » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:14 am

This is just going to be a chip on Tatum’s shoulder, and will make him even more dangerous next season.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1438 » by canman1971 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:23 am

playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?

Shouldn’t be surprised. The NBA is a joke.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1439 » by The Comedian » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:25 am

A lot of this on Twitter right now.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1440 » by Mr_Mojo_Risin » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:27 am

Well that result is good for our cap right?

I can't really believe it though. However if I look at the 15 players, I cannot think any of them are not deserving. Maybe Kyrie from games missed. Thought Tatum had a better year than Butler but he was also very good.

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