What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[exculpatory]

Physically, stylistically, and skillwise I think he most resembles KD. Paul Pierce was much more powerful in his lower body. Paul George is significantly more athletic. Tatum has a very high dribble and un-blockable release point just like Durantula.

Paul was much more powerful in his upper body as well. He was built like a brick wall - not chiseled, just brute strong.

[Edug27]

Tatum is pretty much on the level of the Pacers Paul George right now. And if PG didn’t get hurt, he’d be a much better player than his career suggests. I think Tatum can be a consistent 25-26 ppg and 7-8 reb player. I truly think he can be the #1 scoring option on a team that can get to the Finals. He just needed the freedom to play his game and not defer to anyone. He has that now, and he’s taken that next step.

And while we are on the topic, I’ve always seen Jaylen Brown as a Jimmy Butler type. He may not be the passer Jimmy is yet, but he gets buckets and plays on both ends of the floor in a very similar fashion. He’s tightened up the dribble and can pretty much get wherever he wants to on the floor. He’s learning how to use his body, and the shot is consistently improving. Plus he’s been great on the defensive side.

[Bleeding Green]

It's kind of scary because I still think his defense is ahead of his offense. He's got DPOY level defensive talent, and on the offensive side he's improved so much this year at basically everything. Of course the more they put on him offensively the less his defense will be (unless he's a robot with infinite stamina—TBD). Oh, also he never gets injured. Why can't he be the best player on a championship team? I see no reason. I can't believe he's not yet 22. His obvious comp is PG, but Tatum is already 2-3 years ahead of Paul George. If Paul George never gets injured, he's a top-3 player in the league for half a decade or more.

But he's not Durant. Durant is the best scorer in NBA history, who as his peak was capable of being the best defensive player in the league when the situation needed it.

Whelp, the reason why he can’t be is that there are other really damn good players out there too. Siakam, Giannis, Luka amongst others that Tatum is going to have to battle during his prime. Is Tatum on the level of a Giannis yet? Clearly not but the question is whether or not he can get there.

No, he's not Giannis, but will Giannis be Giannis is 3-4 years? I can't see his game aging well. Siakam is 4 years older. Is there a single player in the league who is both younger and better than Jayson Tatum? Luka Doncic is the only one I can name.

[zoyathedestroya]

OT, but I couldn't resist...

List of players with 3,000+ points, 300+ made threes, and 1,000+ rebounds at age 21 or below:
• LeBron James
• Jayson Tatum

- end of list -

Raise the age limit to 22 and only Kevin Durant is added to the list.

[Edug27]

It's kind of scary because I still think his defense is ahead of his offense. He's got DPOY level defensive talent, and on the offensive side he's improved so much this year at basically everything. Of course the more they put on him offensively the less his defense will be (unless he's a robot with infinite stamina—TBD). Oh, also he never gets injured. Why can't he be the best player on a championship team? I see no reason. I can't believe he's not yet 22. His obvious comp is PG, but Tatum is already 2-3 years ahead of Paul George. If Paul George never gets injured, he's a top-3 player in the league for half a decade or more.

But he's not Durant. Durant is the best scorer in NBA history, who as his peak was capable of being the best defensive player in the league when the situation needed it.

Whelp, the reason why he can’t be is that there are other really damn good players out there too. Siakam, Giannis, Luka amongst others that Tatum is going to have to battle during his prime. Is Tatum on the level of a Giannis yet? Clearly not but the question is whether or not he can get there.

No, he's not Giannis, but will Giannis be Giannis is 3-4 years? I can't see his game aging well. Siakam is 4 years older. Is there a single player in the league who is both younger and better than Jayson Tatum? Luka Doncic is the only one I can name.

Giannis uses his absurd length more so than athleticism. I see that aging well.

[claycarver]

^
Tatum's ceiling

[Higgs Boston]

Tatum can't be a top5 player, all those players have great athleticism or super elite skills, Tatum doesn't have any of that.
He can be like PG in the rank 8-15 but nothing more.

[Fencer reregistered]

Tatum's ceiling is to be a top-3 (s)wing player of his era, by which I mean:
-- One of the top scorers in the league.
-- All-NBA defense.
-- Passing and rebounding as would be reasonably expected or hoped-for.
-- Eventually getting such a mature offensive game that he's still elite overall as his stamina for defense drops off a bit.

If there's a prime Lebron/Jordan type player around at the time, he doesn't have a shot at top-1. And the guys who have freak passing ability (Luka) or freak bodies (Giannis) may stay ahead of him. But he has a shot at perennial All-Star, perennial All-NBA, and intermittent top-5 MVP voting.

Each guy around what I'm calling his ceiling does it differently. He won't have Havlicek's game or Kobe's. But he does have a shot at their general level of career.

[Feed Your Head]

Tatum can't be a top5 player, all those players have great athleticism or super elite skills, Tatum doesn't have any of that.
He can be like PG in the rank 8-15 but nothing more.

Isn't being as good a shooter from three off the dribble as he is an elite skill, especially at his size? Plus I'd consider his defense an elite skill.

Not saying i think he will be top 5 for sure or anything, but the skill is there IMO.

[Fencer reregistered]

Tatum can't be a top5 player, all those players have great athleticism or super elite skills, Tatum doesn't have any of that.
He can be like PG in the rank 8-15 but nothing more.

Isn't being as good a shooter from three off the dribble as he is an elite skill, especially at his size? Plus I'd consider his defense an elite skill.

Not saying i think he will be top 5 for sure or anything, but the skill is there IMO.

Given how rapidly the game has evolved in 3-pt shooting, the GOAT at contested 3s is probably playing today. Harden is the first contender who comes to mind. But Tatum's ceiling includes being in that discussion. Does anybody else combine length and quickness as effectively as he does in taking those shots?

[Floody100]

OT, but I couldn't resist...

List of players with 3,000+ points, 300+ made threes, and 1,000+ rebounds at age 21 or below:
• LeBron James
• Jayson Tatum

- end of list -

Raise the age limit to 22 and only Kevin Durant is added to the list.

Damn ...

If he can put on an extra 10 pounds watch out.

[Higgs Boston]

Tatum can't be a top5 player, all those players have great athleticism or super elite skills, Tatum doesn't have any of that.
He can be like PG in the rank 8-15 but nothing more.

Isn't being as good a shooter from three off the dribble as he is an elite skill, especially at his size? Plus I'd consider his defense an elite skill.

Not saying i think he will be top 5 for sure or anything, but the skill is there IMO.

read again.
You need to be the best or top3 doing something, Tatum can be considered elite as defender or 3 point shooter but isn't in the top tier, he needs to be that good in some skills to compensate the fact he doesn't have great athleticism like some top5 caliber players.

[SMTBSI]

I've mentioned a few times recently that I'd never been Tatum's biggest fan. What I really meant by this is that I've always "liked" him just fine, but was very nervous about the possible future max or super-max, because I wasn't sure he was ever going to be worth it, but was pretty sure he was going to get it. Didn't necessarily see "top guy on a title team" anywhere in his future. Basically, I was worried about putting too many of our eggs in his basket, and have probably been among the more willing to trade him of anyone on the board.

I don't change my opinions quickly. I don't think it's that I'm stubborn. I just try really hard not to be reactionary. So I tend to be comfortable taking a ton of time making observations, before coming to a conclusion on, really, anything.

Well, I'm now into the process of changing my mind on Tatum. For the first time ever, I actually see a path to "best player in the league". I'm not going to assign a particularly high probability to that outcome, but, I can see the possibility.

A few more ppg. A small uptick in efficiency. A little extra strength-that-comes-with-age to help him grow into a true lockdown defender. That alone could get him to #1 guy territory, without requiring any particular revolution in his game. And he's got plenty of years to accomplish it.

After that, the leap from "top guy on a true contender" to "best player in the league" would probably require adding some truly new skills, such as somehow becoming a high-level distributor. This is tougher to project with confidence, and these kinds of shifts are probably the least common to happen in reality, but, his trajectory so far at least gives me confidence he's a grinder, and he seems humble, so I feel like he wont rest on his laurels.

But, even if he doesn't accomplish that last bit, what I most want is to have no qualms whatsoever about paying him the supermax. You don't have to be the best player in the league for the supermax to be good value, but, you got to be damned good. If he reaches a level where we all get to feel like the max is a bargain, we're in pretty good shape.


So, a few more ppg. A few more TS%. But most importantly: becoming a guy I can trust to bring it every single night (or at least 9 out of 10). That last is what sets guys apart, imo, and really earns my trust. Like with Pierce, you knew even on his off nights, if he started 1-8, he was usually going to battle back, and by the end of the night you'd look down and his line was somehow solid.


I'm not quite ready to flip full 180. I've got more observing to do. But I am spending a lot more time lately imagining him winning FMVPs for us, than imagining the-guy-we-got-for-him-in-trade doing so.

[brackdan70]

^
Tatum's ceiling

Exactly what I was thinking.

[zoyathedestroya]

Well, not Kuzma apparently.

Read on Twitter

[His Airness 23]

Tatum will be a Top 5 player and multiple champion. I hope we keep the Big 4 of Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Kemba for a long long time. We are a tough out in the playoffs

[SichtingLives]

Ceiling is all great and fun but being elite is about closing games. Big games. He can do everything else. If he didn't have douchebags like Kyrie and Marcus Morris $hit teammate/shame-stealing his reps the last few years we'd have a better picture of his closing skills right now. But thats ok he's young, like 21 or something. It'll come.

[zoyathedestroya]

Ceiling is all great and fun but being elite is about closing games. Big games. He can do everything else. If he didn't have douchebags like Kyrie and Marcus Morris $hit teammate/shame-stealing his reps the last few years we'd have a better picture of his closing skills right now. But thats ok he's young, like 21 or something. It'll come.

We're getting a glimpse of it. I think Hayward and Kemba recognize the special talent in JT and are willing to take a step back for him to shine.

He's now leading the team in 4th quarter points with dumb 51.5/46.8/93.6 shooting splits.
He also leads the team in clutch points with stupid 51.4/43.8/100 shooting splits.

"Not enough sample," but he's got time.

[K For Three]

A taller Kobe, IMO.

[zoyathedestroya]

A taller Kobe, IMO.

Posting their 3rd yr stats without comment and context: