What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[flintsky21]

Increasing his free throw rate is the next step for him to break into the league's top 10 players. Increased his rate from 4.7 to 7.2 in the playoffs. Let's see if he can keep that up for an entire season.

[ConstableGeneva]

Apart from getting to the line more, let's hope Tatum improves his finishing around the rim and playmaking ability.

Here are last season's top 6 in MVP voting and their free throw rate, shooting % within 3 feet of rim, and assist rate:

1. Giannis - .508 FTr, 77.9% w/in 3ft of rim, 34.2% ast rate
2. Lebron - .292 FTr, 72.7% w/in 3ft of rim, 49.1% ast rate
3. Harden - .528 FTr, 66.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 35.9% ast rate
4. Doncic - .448 FTr, 75.2% w/in 3ft of rim, 45.7% ast rate
5. Kawhi - .355 FTr, 69.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 26.4% ast rate
6. A.Davis - .479 FTr, 75.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 15.1% ast rate

Tatum's numbers in these three categories:
.255 FTr, 61.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 14.5% ast rate

Compared to the elite guys, JT is last in every category. Huge room for improvement still. Not entirely sure he'll get it in one go in one season. But we hope he makes the jump in these areas.

[BK_2020]

Lebron never gets the calls

[Feed Your Head]

Apart from getting to the line more, let's hope Tatum improves his finishing around the rim and playmaking ability.

Here are last season's top 6 in MVP voting and their free throw rate, shooting % within 3 feet of rim, and assist rate:

1. Giannis - .508 FTr, 77.9% w/in 3ft of rim, 34.2% ast rate
2. Lebron - .292 FTr, 72.7% w/in 3ft of rim, 49.1% ast rate
3. Harden - .528 FTr, 66.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 35.9% ast rate
4. Doncic - .448 FTr, 75.2% w/in 3ft of rim, 45.7% ast rate
5. Kawhi - .355 FTr, 69.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 26.4% ast rate
6. A.Davis - .479 FTr, 75.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 15.1% ast rate

Tatum's numbers in these three categories:
.255 FTr, 61.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 14.5% ast rate

Compared to the elite guys, JT is last in every category. Huge room for improvement still. Not entirely sure he'll get it in one go in one season. But we hope he makes the jump in these areas.

First off, LeBron does not get to the line as much as he should lol.

Secondly, I don’t think Tatum will ever be elite at getting to the line. I think he settles in that Kawhi range, .355FTr is right about where JT was in the second half/playoffs. I think his accuracy outside with his off the dribble three team will help him be an MVP caliber player even if he never to the line a ridiculous amount.

He was even worse at the rim in the playoffs than the regular season, fell down to 59%. he seemed a bit better at the rim in the Heat series, but my memory could just be tricking me. I’d expect him to be closer to the 68% at the rim that he was in his second season, going forward.

The biggest thing for me was his jump in playmaking in the bubble and especially in the playoffs, he legitimately looked like a guy who can be a 5/6 assist a game guy sooner rather than later, his assist rate jumped from 14.5 in the regular season to 21.3 in the postseason, while his turnover rate only went up from 10.2% to 11%. And it wasn’t just swinging the ball around the perimeter, Jose Calderon style assists. It was mostly keeping his head up and hitting guys off of the dribble, whether at the rim, or drive and dishing. His height really helps here, can see over the defenses when they trap him.

It will take time to improve on all these things of course, and I hate even throwing this out here, but there’s not going to be a real weakness in his game within a couple of years, IMO. That’s pretty rare territory, but he’s likely going to be an elite scorer, will get to the line enough, be good enough at the rim, and probably going to be a pretty good playmaker. All while being one of the best team/weak side defenders in the league, and probably not far behind as a man defender.

Like you and plenty of others have said, it’s all about building the best possible team around him going forward, and keeping him happy.

[jmr07019]

I can’t believe how good Doncic is around the rim. Impressive.

I remember last year Tatum was abysmal around the rim to start the season then seemed to figure it out as the year went on. I think there’s a good chance his percentage takes a sizable step up this year.

I also expect his assist rate to go up quite a bit too. There’s no question this is his team now and he will have the ball in his hand more compared to last season. I expect him to pick up some of the playmaking that left with Hayward.

[ConstableGeneva]

Apart from getting to the line more, let's hope Tatum improves his finishing around the rim and playmaking ability.

Here are last season's top 6 in MVP voting and their free throw rate, shooting % within 3 feet of rim, and assist rate:

1. Giannis - .508 FTr, 77.9% w/in 3ft of rim, 34.2% ast rate
2. Lebron - .292 FTr, 72.7% w/in 3ft of rim, 49.1% ast rate
3. Harden - .528 FTr, 66.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 35.9% ast rate
4. Doncic - .448 FTr, 75.2% w/in 3ft of rim, 45.7% ast rate
5. Kawhi - .355 FTr, 69.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 26.4% ast rate
6. A.Davis - .479 FTr, 75.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 15.1% ast rate

Tatum's numbers in these three categories:
.255 FTr, 61.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 14.5% ast rate

Compared to the elite guys, JT is last in every category. Huge room for improvement still. Not entirely sure he'll get it in one go in one season. But we hope he makes the jump in these areas.

First off, LeBron does not get to the line as much as he should lol.

Secondary, I don’t think Tatum will ever be elite at getting to the line. I think he settles in that Kawhi range, .355FTr is right about where JT was in the second half/playoffs. I think his accuracy outside with his off the dribble three team will help him be an MVP caliber player even if he never to the line a ridiculous amount.

He was even worse at the rim in the playoffs than the regular season, fell down to 59%. he seemed a bit better at the rim in the Heat series, but my memory could just be tricking me. I’d expect him to be closer to the 68% at the rim that he was in his second season, going forward.

The biggest thing for me was his jump in playmaking in the bubble and especially in the playoffs, he legitimately looked like a guy who can be a 5/6 assist a game guy sooner rather than later, his assist rate jumped from 14.5 in the regular season to 21.3 in the postseason, while his turnover rate only went up from 10.2% to 11%. And it wasn’t just swinging the ball around the perimeter, Jose Calderon style assists. It was mostly keeping his head up and hitting guys off of the dribble, whether at the rim, or drive and dishing. His height really helps here, can see over the defenses when they trap him.

It will take time to improve on all these things of course, and I hate even throwing this out here, but there’s not going to be a real weakness in his game within a couple of years, IMO. That’s pretty rare territory, but he’s likely going to be an elite scorer, will get to the line enough, be good enough at the rim, and probably going to be a pretty good playmaker. All while being one of the best team/weak side defenders in the league, and probably not far behind as a man defender.

Like you and plenty of others have said, it’s all about building the best possible team around him going forward, and keeping him happy.

Don't forget about growing a winner's mentality. None of this matters if he doesn't care about winning.

[Feed Your Head]

Apart from getting to the line more, let's hope Tatum improves his finishing around the rim and playmaking ability.

Here are last season's top 6 in MVP voting and their free throw rate, shooting % within 3 feet of rim, and assist rate:

1. Giannis - .508 FTr, 77.9% w/in 3ft of rim, 34.2% ast rate
2. Lebron - .292 FTr, 72.7% w/in 3ft of rim, 49.1% ast rate
3. Harden - .528 FTr, 66.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 35.9% ast rate
4. Doncic - .448 FTr, 75.2% w/in 3ft of rim, 45.7% ast rate
5. Kawhi - .355 FTr, 69.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 26.4% ast rate
6. A.Davis - .479 FTr, 75.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 15.1% ast rate

Tatum's numbers in these three categories:
.255 FTr, 61.8% w/in 3ft of rim, 14.5% ast rate

Compared to the elite guys, JT is last in every category. Huge room for improvement still. Not entirely sure he'll get it in one go in one season. But we hope he makes the jump in these areas.

First off, LeBron does not get to the line as much as he should lol.

Secondary, I don’t think Tatum will ever be elite at getting to the line. I think he settles in that Kawhi range, .355FTr is right about where JT was in the second half/playoffs. I think his accuracy outside with his off the dribble three team will help him be an MVP caliber player even if he never to the line a ridiculous amount.

He was even worse at the rim in the playoffs than the regular season, fell down to 59%. he seemed a bit better at the rim in the Heat series, but my memory could just be tricking me. No real reasoning other than assuming improvement in his second year as a clear #1, but I’d expect him to be closer to the 68% at the rim that he was in his second season, going forward.

The biggest thing for me was his jump in playmaking in the bubble and especially in the playoffs, he legitimately looked like a guy who can be a 5/6 assist a game guy sooner rather than later, his assist rate jumped from 14.5 in the regular season to 21.3 in the postseason, while his turnover rate only went up from 10.2% to 11%. And it wasn’t just swinging the ball around the perimeter, Jose Calderon style assists. It was mostly keeping his head up and hitting guys off of the dribble, whether at the rim, or drive and dishing. His height really helps here, can see over the defenses when they trap him.

It will take time to improve on all these things of course, and I hate even throwing this out here, but there’s not going to be a real weakness in his game within a couple of years, IMO. That’s pretty rare territory, but he’s likely going to be an elite scorer, will get to the line enough, be good enough at the rim, and probably going to be a pretty good playmaker. All while being one of the best team/weak side defenders in the league, and probably not far behind as a man defender.

Like you and plenty of others have said, it’s all about building the best possible team around him going forward, and keeping him happy.

Don't forget about growing a winner's mentality. None of this matters if he doesn't care about winning.

We have enough of a Tatum hat wearing sample, he just doesn’t bleed Celtics pride.

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

Yes please. Need our bigs to be better decision-makers on the roll though.

[Feed Your Head]

Read on Twitter

Yes please. Need our bigs to be better decision-makers on the roll though.

Watch on YouTube

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

Yes please. Need our bigs to be better decision-makers on the roll though.

Watch on YouTube

He shot 57.14% from 30-39 feet last season (incl. playoffs)!! On just 7 attempts, that is.

[akhan786]

The ceiling is the roof. He is a tighter handle away from being the best scorer in the NBA. Elite isolation scorer + great defender almost always results in a guy who wins multiple titles.

Once JTs handle matures (and it improved massively this year), he will dominate. Only guy I'd take over him in his age range is Doncic due to his insane vision.

It’s Jayson’s and Luka’s league not Zion’s.

Nothing against Zion. I hope he becomes a monster.

If Zion can stay healthy and add more skill, it would give the NBA a true Next Big 3 like how I remembered the Kobe-Wade-Lebron era

[KGtabake]

Good to see that other fanbases seem to consider him a top10 player or close to it. He ended up 12 in realgm's poll for 2021. Nice.

[Tatumfor2]

JT should be taking 20 of these side-step threes per game.

Would this also be a good time to welcome Bradley Beal to the team? That was a Celtics practice video right?? (Just say yes)

[ConstableGeneva]

No Hayward, injured Kemba, more ballhandling duties... Tatum should break into this list this season.

Read on Twitter

[bisme37]

The GB got mad when JT was voted the 12th best player the other day.

"This site really thinks Tatum is the 12th best player?? I quit!!"

New ESPN list has him at #11.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30451670/ranking-best-nba-players-2020-21-50-11

[bisme37]

His head is about to bust through the ceiling.

Read on Twitter

[Feed Your Head]

His head is about to bust through the ceiling.

Read on Twitter

[SuperDeluxe]

His head is about to bust through the ceiling.

Read on Twitter

That makes him the second-tallest player on the roster. He needs just a few more months of growth to leapfrog Tacko.

[ConstableGeneva]

Aggregate fan sites be crazy. Hehe that quote could have been from August when Stevens was talking about putting out a small ball lineup that isn't really small except against traditional lineups. Never mentioned whether measurement was with shoes or without.

[playa-hater]

Ceiling, this year, is a true top 3 MVP candidate, and even MVP... 2nd half of last year and/or better+ team success = legit chance.