Cuban Pete wrote: That said, NEVER look at 3pt% at the college level. If you want to accurately judge shooting among wing prospects, look for FT% and 3pt attempts per 100 pos (min of 8). All of the best shooters in the NBA have great FT% and lots of 3pt attempts. College 3s are different from NCAA and 3pt% alone doesn't translate into the NBA. IMO, shooting is 90% of the sport in the NBA. Team eFG% has a strong correlation to winning in the NBA.
The best three point shooters also tend to be good if not elite free throw shooters, but it doesn't always work the other way around, and there are always exceptions. Paul Pierce for example was a 60% FT shooter his freshman year. Joe Harris shot 64% from the line his senior year, 72% over his four years. Paul George, Kawhi, Kerry Kittles, Jason Kapono? Around 70% freshman year. Marvin Williams, Francisco Garcia, Ben McLemore, Robbie Hummel, Salim Stoudamire, Melo Trimble, and lots of other fringe prospects - they all shot 85% or better freshman year.
Ben McLemore wasn't a true freshman. He was a year older than his class. OTOH, there are always going to be players who check the boxes but wind up busts or disappointments. Since he's been in the league for seven seasons, he falls under the latter category.
PP was drafted in 1998. Kittles in 1996. Kapono in 2000. Since then, scouting and the NBA have changed dramatically. 3pt shots are to the NBA as the passing game is to the NFL. Today, Freshmen who put up great numbers have the highest success rate. One and done freshman are the norm in today's NBA. Today, if you are going to draft a perimeter player that lacks both of these attributes, you're rolling the dice. Keep in mind that window for development is about 3-4 years.That's why four years from now, expect Romeo Langford to be with another team (or league).
threrf23 wrote:Logic follows that a player's ability to hit non-defended shots in practice or from the free throw line speaks little to his ability to hit shots in real game situations.
FT% is a great indicator of shooting mechanics and translates well into the NBA.
threrf23 wrote: If I am going to nitpick you more - three pointers made per minute or possession tells us more than three pointer taken. Obviously. 3 Point % is clearly meaningful too, even if it means little without quantity. And while the college 3 might be shorter than the NBA 3, many if not most underclassmen lack the lower body strength they need to hit consistently hit the NBA three.
The number of 3pt attempts is highly significant. It shows the confidence and comfort level of the shooter. That's why I dislike Brad Wannamaker. He can do everything except take shots and at age 30, he's not going to improve. As for lower body strength, that's conditioning. That's why all talented underclassmen should bolt for the NBA asap and get into a real professional program.
threrf23 wrote:Lessons I've learned in NCAA statistical analysis: upperclassmen who can drain the trey are dime a dozen, underclassmens' stats mean more, particularly where they lack an NBA body; three point shooting is a skill that players often continue to develop throughout their twenties, as long as a prospect meets a minimal threshold, there is always the potential to become a good or at least serviceable three point shooter; and in between minimal and elite thresholds, I would actually look to rebounding (relative to size and context) to better determine a player's prospects as a shooter, for the simple reason that it tends to speak to a player's true potential.
Elaborating, there are skills, like shooting for example, that players continue to develop and refine throughout their careers. But rebounding is much simpler, it merely requires effort, focus, fundamentals, instincts, awareness, etc. A player who has those things is more likely to maximize his potential across the board.
As a team stat, eFG% has the strongest correlation to winning pct. A few years ago, the Cs thought that they could get by the Cavs with rebounding and defense. In games 3 and 4 of that series, nearly half the team fouled out and Cs were crushed both games. Their lack of shooting buried them in game 7. eFG% and DRB% are the most important stats. The latter is where bigs come into play.