ImageImageImage

2020 NBA Draft Thread

Moderators: Froob, sully00, The Comedian, Parliament10, ParticleMan, djFan71, canman1971

hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#561 » by hugepatsfan » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:47 pm

big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


I think your underselling Precious' mobility, especially on defense. He's really a terrific fit for Stevens' P&R switch defense. Great defensive fit here.

Sometimes with college players you gotta understand that there's pressure on them to do more. In college, Precious was a primary offensive option. In the NBA, he'll be ancillary at best. His offensive role here would be especially watered down.

On his upside he can be a Bam Adebayo type player. He'd be hugely valuable here if he pans out. Even if RWill does as well.
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#562 » by hugepatsfan » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:45 pm

big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


Already commented on the Precious part of this but also wanted to touch on the bold here. I think you have to consider the situation we're in as a contender. We have Kemba and Brown signed long term. Tatum is soon to follow. Smart and Hayward have been called core pieces which means we'd be expected to want to keep them to some financial extent.

We're probably going to be a tax team this year barring a move. After next year we can get under the tax by letting Hayward walk but if we re-sign Theis and/or use the MLE we'll probably be pushing the tax line again when you factor in Tatum's deal. The year after that Smart would be up and due for a raise.

In general you want to chase upside in the first. But in our financial situation there's also going to be great value for us even in just locking in good solid role players. If you chase upside in the mid to late 1st where we're picking you tend to get boom or bust types. Obviously a boom would help elevate us but busts can leave us in situations like this year with crappy bench play and limited financial means to replace. So it's a balancing act.
Squigglepuffin
Junior
Posts: 265
And1: 199
Joined: Jan 13, 2014

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#563 » by Squigglepuffin » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:36 am

themoneyteam2 wrote:Yeah that's also true his wingspan is underwhelming. I could see Ainge going after Cole Anthony too since he was projected consensus top 5 pick and even mentioned as the #1 pick for a long time. Top 3 recruit in high school too. Only concern is that he offers pretty little versatility but would be an elite backup PG and could take the reigns from Kemba if he reaches his projected ceiling.


Imo Cole Anthony is severely overhyped. I've seen him mentioned as a top 10 pick in some mock drafts.

He's Trey Burke more or less. The only reason he's getting attention is because he's played on tv a lot due to going to a massive college in UNC, and he also went to Oak Hill in high school.

There are so, so many players I'd choose over him even with the Milwaukee pick at 30.

It's going to be unfortunate and sad (a smh moment) to see a team (probably in the lottery) pick him so high.
User avatar
31to6
RealGM
Posts: 13,126
And1: 15,368
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: all your picks

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#564 » by 31to6 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:45 am

hugepatsfan wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


Already commented on the Precious part of this but also wanted to touch on the bold here. I think you have to consider the situation we're in as a contender. We have Kemba and Brown signed long term. Tatum is soon to follow. Smart and Hayward have been called core pieces which means we'd be expected to want to keep them to some financial extent.

We're probably going to be a tax team this year barring a move. After next year we can get under the tax by letting Hayward walk but if we re-sign Theis and/or use the MLE we'll probably be pushing the tax line again when you factor in Tatum's deal. The year after that Smart would be up and due for a raise.

In general you want to chase upside in the first. But in our financial situation there's also going to be great value for us even in just locking in good solid role players. If you chase upside in the mid to late 1st where we're picking you tend to get boom or bust types. Obviously a boom would help elevate us but busts can leave us in situations like this year with crappy bench play and limited financial means to replace. So it's a balancing act.


Grant Williams likes this post.
themoneyteam2
Pro Prospect
Posts: 914
And1: 1,106
Joined: Oct 19, 2019
     

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#565 » by themoneyteam2 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:45 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=20
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#566 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:59 pm

themoneyteam2 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=20


Terry is an interesting fit for us IMO. I think he could work really well with Brown/Tatum down the line. Right now neither of those guys are great at playmaking for others. So PGs with on ball skills work well with them. As those two grow, you figure playmaking will improve and that will put the ball in their hands a higher percentage of the time. That will in turn put a premium on off ball skills which Terry projects to be excellent at.

I could see a scenario where Terry plays alongside Smart/Romeo on the second unit. As Brown/Tatum take on more you eventually move to Terry playing a lot at PG alongside them and Kemba playing more with the second unit. Maybe not even to a point where Kemba actually comes off the bench but you line your rotations up for more of him playing with them. Terry's off ball shooting plays really well alongside on ball players and Kemba's ability to get his own shot compensates for weaker scorers off the bench.
threrf23
RealGM
Posts: 13,103
And1: 2,511
Joined: Mar 22, 2004
Contact:

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#567 » by threrf23 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:14 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
Terry is an interesting fit for us IMO. I think he could work really well with Brown/Tatum down the line. Right now neither of those guys are great at playmaking for others. So PGs with on ball skills work well with them. As those two grow, you figure playmaking will improve and that will put the ball in their hands a higher percentage of the time. That will in turn put a premium on off ball skills which Terry projects to be excellent at.


He is listed at 6'2 / 160. Steph Curry was similar. But Tyrell Terry is not Steph Curry and PGs usually take time to develop anyways. I don't think he would fit anywhere his first year or two in the league.
winsomme2
Senior
Posts: 533
And1: 217
Joined: Jun 12, 2013

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#568 » by winsomme2 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:21 pm

threrf23 wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
Terry is an interesting fit for us IMO. I think he could work really well with Brown/Tatum down the line. Right now neither of those guys are great at playmaking for others. So PGs with on ball skills work well with them. As those two grow, you figure playmaking will improve and that will put the ball in their hands a higher percentage of the time. That will in turn put a premium on off ball skills which Terry projects to be excellent at.


He is listed at 6'2 / 160. Steph Curry was similar. But Tyrell Terry is not Steph Curry and PGs usually take time to develop anyways. I don't think he would fit anywhere his first year or two in the league.


I think Terry is going to be a great shooter right away. He's that good. I suspect he's going to start getting consideration in the lottery.

I would have no issue taking him at 17. He's definitely more appealing to me than players like Ramsey, Green, and Hampton.
bucknersrevenge
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,136
And1: 4,411
Joined: Jul 05, 2012
Location: Philly
Contact:
         

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#569 » by bucknersrevenge » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:36 am

Our track record seems to indicate that Brad does not like young bigs. He likes the big to have a lot of responsibility on both ends of the court. Unless it's a draft n stash, He wants guys who are older because they're more likely to get up to speed faster. I think RW3 was a bit of an outlier because of his defensive acumen (won SEC DPOY as both a freshman and a sophomore which is unheard of) and his athleticism. If we were to draft any underage bigs like some of the names being tossed around here, I'd be shocked if they were not part of a trade to another team.
There is no statute of limitation on Twitter. Remember that...
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#570 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:36 pm

bucknersrevenge wrote:Our track record seems to indicate that Brad does not like young bigs. He likes the big to have a lot of responsibility on both ends of the court. Unless it's a draft n stash, He wants guys who are older because they're more likely to get up to speed faster. I think RW3 was a bit of an outlier because of his defensive acumen (won SEC DPOY as both a freshman and a sophomore which is unheard of) and his athleticism. If we were to draft any underage bigs like some of the names being tossed around here, I'd be shocked if they were not part of a trade to another team.


Theis will be back next year for $5M. Kanter is expected to pick up his $5M player option. RWill is still under contract. We probably don't have an immediate need for a rotation player. We could stand to improve but we don't need guys to just fill minutes. We have bodies.

Beyond that though, we cold have a big need for bigs. Kemba and Brown are signed long term. Tatum's extension is coming. Hayward has 1 year left and 2 for Smart but they've always been mentioned as "core" pieces. If that holds true when it comes time to re-sign them it's going to be expensive. Being able to replace guys like Theis and Kanter with rookie salaries rather than MLE type signings can help the financial feasibility of keeping our core.

So I don't view any of the bigs we're in range to draft as candidates to play major roles next year. I view them as guys to develop for a year or maybe even 2 depending on how raw they are. There are older bigs who might be more "NBA ready" but it's still an uphill battle to beat out Theis/Kanter/Williams for minutes. Not that those guys are great but their rotation caliber players. Our short term "need" at center is for a top tier talent not just a rotation piece. It's the longer term where we need more minutes filled so I'm not as worried about immediate contributions.
bucknersrevenge
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,136
And1: 4,411
Joined: Jul 05, 2012
Location: Philly
Contact:
         

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#571 » by bucknersrevenge » Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:42 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
bucknersrevenge wrote:Our track record seems to indicate that Brad does not like young bigs. He likes the big to have a lot of responsibility on both ends of the court. Unless it's a draft n stash, He wants guys who are older because they're more likely to get up to speed faster. I think RW3 was a bit of an outlier because of his defensive acumen (won SEC DPOY as both a freshman and a sophomore which is unheard of) and his athleticism. If we were to draft any underage bigs like some of the names being tossed around here, I'd be shocked if they were not part of a trade to another team.


Theis will be back next year for $5M. Kanter is expected to pick up his $5M player option. RWill is still under contract. We probably don't have an immediate need for a rotation player. We could stand to improve but we don't need guys to just fill minutes. We have bodies.

Beyond that though, we cold have a big need for bigs. Kemba and Brown are signed long term. Tatum's extension is coming. Hayward has 1 year left and 2 for Smart but they've always been mentioned as "core" pieces. If that holds true when it comes time to re-sign them it's going to be expensive. Being able to replace guys like Theis and Kanter with rookie salaries rather than MLE type signings can help the financial feasibility of keeping our core.

So I don't view any of the bigs we're in range to draft as candidates to play major roles next year. I view them as guys to develop for a year or maybe even 2 depending on how raw they are. There are older bigs who might be more "NBA ready" but it's still an uphill battle to beat out Theis/Kanter/Williams for minutes. Not that those guys are great but their rotation caliber players. Our short term "need" at center is for a top tier talent not just a rotation piece. It's the longer term where we need more minutes filled so I'm not as worried about immediate contributions.


If we're close to title contention Brad is not going to want to have those guys replaced. Instead, they're gonna ask Wyc to put his money where his mouth is when he said that he would pay the tax for a contender. As for Hayward, I expect one of two things to happen: either he will opt out and resign at a lower amount for a longer deal or he will opt in at which point, he plays out the string and Danny probably doesn't offer him as big a deal as some other teams will and he probably leaves. Either way, that gets addressed. But Brad is going to want the starting point for any big to be a player with some level of pro experience unless certain caveats exist (ex. the 4 year college player with a high IQ).
There is no statute of limitation on Twitter. Remember that...
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#572 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:14 pm

bucknersrevenge wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
bucknersrevenge wrote:Our track record seems to indicate that Brad does not like young bigs. He likes the big to have a lot of responsibility on both ends of the court. Unless it's a draft n stash, He wants guys who are older because they're more likely to get up to speed faster. I think RW3 was a bit of an outlier because of his defensive acumen (won SEC DPOY as both a freshman and a sophomore which is unheard of) and his athleticism. If we were to draft any underage bigs like some of the names being tossed around here, I'd be shocked if they were not part of a trade to another team.


Theis will be back next year for $5M. Kanter is expected to pick up his $5M player option. RWill is still under contract. We probably don't have an immediate need for a rotation player. We could stand to improve but we don't need guys to just fill minutes. We have bodies.

Beyond that though, we cold have a big need for bigs. Kemba and Brown are signed long term. Tatum's extension is coming. Hayward has 1 year left and 2 for Smart but they've always been mentioned as "core" pieces. If that holds true when it comes time to re-sign them it's going to be expensive. Being able to replace guys like Theis and Kanter with rookie salaries rather than MLE type signings can help the financial feasibility of keeping our core.

So I don't view any of the bigs we're in range to draft as candidates to play major roles next year. I view them as guys to develop for a year or maybe even 2 depending on how raw they are. There are older bigs who might be more "NBA ready" but it's still an uphill battle to beat out Theis/Kanter/Williams for minutes. Not that those guys are great but their rotation caliber players. Our short term "need" at center is for a top tier talent not just a rotation piece. It's the longer term where we need more minutes filled so I'm not as worried about immediate contributions.


If we're close to title contention Brad is not going to want to have those guys replaced. Instead, they're gonna ask Wyc to put his money where his mouth is when he said that he would pay the tax for a contender. As for Hayward, I expect one of two things to happen: either he will opt out and resign at a lower amount for a longer deal or he will opt in at which point, he plays out the string and Danny probably doesn't offer him as big a deal as some other teams will and he probably leaves. Either way, that gets addressed. But Brad is going to want the starting point for any big to be a player with some level of pro experience unless certain caveats exist (ex. the 4 year college player with a high IQ).


You can ask but that doesn't mean he says yes. Back in the day they let James Posey walk over paying extra luxury tax. At one point they had Pierce opt out of a 1 year deal and gave him extra money to sign long term but reduce cap hit in current year (similar to Hayward situation). It's a consideration like it would be for any business.

If Ainge asks Wyc to go into the tax to keep Hayward that seems very reasonable and something Wyc would go for. But it's also reasonable that Wyc would then tell him Theis has to go. Theis stands to get a MLE type deal which would be about $10M. We'd already be in the tax for Hayward/Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Smart so anything to Theis would be incrementa tax. Tax and repeater tax ranges from $1.50 per dollar over up to $5+ per dollar over. If we re-sign Theis for $10M/year on top of keeping the other starters and Smart you could realistically be asking Wyc to pay $30M/year for him. That's just not a practical ask, IMO.

Hayward leaving changes the math in those calculations. All the reports say he will opt in though. For one, there's just too much financial uncertainty to pass up a guaranteed $34M. There are more teams projected to have cap space in next offseason than this one. COVID impact is likely to be more drastic this offseason than next one too. It seems very unlikely for him to opt out this year.

I think your scenario of him leaving this year is extremely unlikely. I could see an opt out and extend, but that would be committing to more money in future years for some relief now. With the cap expected to lower it's unlikely we can get below the tax line. So you'd be moving money out of this year at the first level tax into future years at a repeater tax rate. Wouldn't be a sound business decision.
bucknersrevenge
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,136
And1: 4,411
Joined: Jul 05, 2012
Location: Philly
Contact:
         

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#573 » by bucknersrevenge » Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:38 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
bucknersrevenge wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
Theis will be back next year for $5M. Kanter is expected to pick up his $5M player option. RWill is still under contract. We probably don't have an immediate need for a rotation player. We could stand to improve but we don't need guys to just fill minutes. We have bodies.

Beyond that though, we cold have a big need for bigs. Kemba and Brown are signed long term. Tatum's extension is coming. Hayward has 1 year left and 2 for Smart but they've always been mentioned as "core" pieces. If that holds true when it comes time to re-sign them it's going to be expensive. Being able to replace guys like Theis and Kanter with rookie salaries rather than MLE type signings can help the financial feasibility of keeping our core.

So I don't view any of the bigs we're in range to draft as candidates to play major roles next year. I view them as guys to develop for a year or maybe even 2 depending on how raw they are. There are older bigs who might be more "NBA ready" but it's still an uphill battle to beat out Theis/Kanter/Williams for minutes. Not that those guys are great but their rotation caliber players. Our short term "need" at center is for a top tier talent not just a rotation piece. It's the longer term where we need more minutes filled so I'm not as worried about immediate contributions.


If we're close to title contention Brad is not going to want to have those guys replaced. Instead, they're gonna ask Wyc to put his money where his mouth is when he said that he would pay the tax for a contender. As for Hayward, I expect one of two things to happen: either he will opt out and resign at a lower amount for a longer deal or he will opt in at which point, he plays out the string and Danny probably doesn't offer him as big a deal as some other teams will and he probably leaves. Either way, that gets addressed. But Brad is going to want the starting point for any big to be a player with some level of pro experience unless certain caveats exist (ex. the 4 year college player with a high IQ).


You can ask but that doesn't mean he says yes. Back in the day they let James Posey walk over paying extra luxury tax. At one point they had Pierce opt out of a 1 year deal and gave him extra money to sign long term but reduce cap hit in current year (similar to Hayward situation). It's a consideration like it would be for any business.

If Ainge asks Wyc to go into the tax to keep Hayward that seems very reasonable and something Wyc would go for. But it's also reasonable that Wyc would then tell him Theis has to go. Theis stands to get a MLE type deal which would be about $10M. We'd already be in the tax for Hayward/Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Smart so anything to Theis would be incrementa tax. Tax and repeater tax ranges from $1.50 per dollar over up to $5+ per dollar over. If we re-sign Theis for $10M/year on top of keeping the other starters and Smart you could realistically be asking Wyc to pay $30M/year for him. That's just not a practical ask, IMO.

Hayward leaving changes the math in those calculations. All the reports say he will opt in though. For one, there's just too much financial uncertainty to pass up a guaranteed $34M. There are more teams projected to have cap space in next offseason than this one. COVID impact is likely to be more drastic this offseason than next one too. It seems very unlikely for him to opt out this year.

I think your scenario of him leaving this year is extremely unlikely. I could see an opt out and extend, but that would be committing to more money in future years for some relief now. With the cap expected to lower it's unlikely we can get below the tax line. So you'd be moving money out of this year at the first level tax into future years at a repeater tax rate. Wouldn't be a sound business decision.


No, I think you misread my bit about Hayward. He wouldn't leave after this season. Either he opts out and resigns a longer deal for less, or he opts in, plays the year, and then after next season, prices himself out of our range. It would not surprise me if we present those very options to him after this season. In essence, if Gordon opts in, next year will be his last in a Celtics uniform. If Theis is resigned, he will remain the starter and then you can have a less expensive back up and maybe an upside young big in tow to fill out the roster. But even an upside big he'd want to be older and more experienced than a 19 year old.

ADDENDUM: That's why this playoff run is very important for Robert Williams. Fairly or unfairly, if he does not make an impact strong enough to make Brad and Danny feel like he can be the longterm answer at Center, he's probably a trade candidate this offseason. All Theis has to do is basically hold serve, he gets a deal and Williams path is blocked. It would be more believable to see Vinny SexPants or Tacko off the bench in a backup big capacity after Enes leaves the following year.
There is no statute of limitation on Twitter. Remember that...
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#574 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:02 pm

bucknersrevenge wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
bucknersrevenge wrote:
If we're close to title contention Brad is not going to want to have those guys replaced. Instead, they're gonna ask Wyc to put his money where his mouth is when he said that he would pay the tax for a contender. As for Hayward, I expect one of two things to happen: either he will opt out and resign at a lower amount for a longer deal or he will opt in at which point, he plays out the string and Danny probably doesn't offer him as big a deal as some other teams will and he probably leaves. Either way, that gets addressed. But Brad is going to want the starting point for any big to be a player with some level of pro experience unless certain caveats exist (ex. the 4 year college player with a high IQ).


You can ask but that doesn't mean he says yes. Back in the day they let James Posey walk over paying extra luxury tax. At one point they had Pierce opt out of a 1 year deal and gave him extra money to sign long term but reduce cap hit in current year (similar to Hayward situation). It's a consideration like it would be for any business.

If Ainge asks Wyc to go into the tax to keep Hayward that seems very reasonable and something Wyc would go for. But it's also reasonable that Wyc would then tell him Theis has to go. Theis stands to get a MLE type deal which would be about $10M. We'd already be in the tax for Hayward/Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Smart so anything to Theis would be incrementa tax. Tax and repeater tax ranges from $1.50 per dollar over up to $5+ per dollar over. If we re-sign Theis for $10M/year on top of keeping the other starters and Smart you could realistically be asking Wyc to pay $30M/year for him. That's just not a practical ask, IMO.

Hayward leaving changes the math in those calculations. All the reports say he will opt in though. For one, there's just too much financial uncertainty to pass up a guaranteed $34M. There are more teams projected to have cap space in next offseason than this one. COVID impact is likely to be more drastic this offseason than next one too. It seems very unlikely for him to opt out this year.

I think your scenario of him leaving this year is extremely unlikely. I could see an opt out and extend, but that would be committing to more money in future years for some relief now. With the cap expected to lower it's unlikely we can get below the tax line. So you'd be moving money out of this year at the first level tax into future years at a repeater tax rate. Wouldn't be a sound business decision.


No, I think you misread my bit about Hayward. He wouldn't leave after this season. Either he opts out and resigns a longer deal for less, or he opts in, plays the year, and then after next season, prices himself out of our range. It would not surprise me if we present those very options to him after this season. In essence, if Gordon opts in, next year will be his last in a Celtics uniform. If Theis is resigned, he will remain the starter and then you can have a less expensive back up and maybe an upside young big in tow to fill out the roster. But even an upside big he'd want to be older and more experienced than a 19 year old.

ADDENDUM: That's why this playoff run is very important for Robert Williams. Fairly or unfairly, if he does not make an impact strong enough to make Brad and Danny feel like he can be the longterm answer at Center, he's probably a trade candidate this offseason. All Theis has to do is basically hold serve, he gets a deal and Williams path is blocked. It would be more believable to see Vinny SexPants or Tacko off the bench in a backup big capacity after Enes leaves the following year.


I don't agree with the certainty of that statement. If he opts in and then hits free agency the next year there's obviously the chance he walks. But I think we would make a competitive offer for him. I base that on the rumored trade talks where he was considered part of the "core". If they didn't have at least some willingness to make him a long term piece I don't think that would be the case. I would expect us to make a run at re-signing him for sure.
bucknersrevenge
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,136
And1: 4,411
Joined: Jul 05, 2012
Location: Philly
Contact:
         

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#575 » by bucknersrevenge » Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:16 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
bucknersrevenge wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
You can ask but that doesn't mean he says yes. Back in the day they let James Posey walk over paying extra luxury tax. At one point they had Pierce opt out of a 1 year deal and gave him extra money to sign long term but reduce cap hit in current year (similar to Hayward situation). It's a consideration like it would be for any business.

If Ainge asks Wyc to go into the tax to keep Hayward that seems very reasonable and something Wyc would go for. But it's also reasonable that Wyc would then tell him Theis has to go. Theis stands to get a MLE type deal which would be about $10M. We'd already be in the tax for Hayward/Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Smart so anything to Theis would be incrementa tax. Tax and repeater tax ranges from $1.50 per dollar over up to $5+ per dollar over. If we re-sign Theis for $10M/year on top of keeping the other starters and Smart you could realistically be asking Wyc to pay $30M/year for him. That's just not a practical ask, IMO.

Hayward leaving changes the math in those calculations. All the reports say he will opt in though. For one, there's just too much financial uncertainty to pass up a guaranteed $34M. There are more teams projected to have cap space in next offseason than this one. COVID impact is likely to be more drastic this offseason than next one too. It seems very unlikely for him to opt out this year.

I think your scenario of him leaving this year is extremely unlikely. I could see an opt out and extend, but that would be committing to more money in future years for some relief now. With the cap expected to lower it's unlikely we can get below the tax line. So you'd be moving money out of this year at the first level tax into future years at a repeater tax rate. Wouldn't be a sound business decision.


No, I think you misread my bit about Hayward. He wouldn't leave after this season. Either he opts out and resigns a longer deal for less, or he opts in, plays the year, and then after next season, prices himself out of our range. It would not surprise me if we present those very options to him after this season. In essence, if Gordon opts in, next year will be his last in a Celtics uniform. If Theis is resigned, he will remain the starter and then you can have a less expensive back up and maybe an upside young big in tow to fill out the roster. But even an upside big he'd want to be older and more experienced than a 19 year old.

ADDENDUM: That's why this playoff run is very important for Robert Williams. Fairly or unfairly, if he does not make an impact strong enough to make Brad and Danny feel like he can be the longterm answer at Center, he's probably a trade candidate this offseason. All Theis has to do is basically hold serve, he gets a deal and Williams path is blocked. It would be more believable to see Vinny SexPants or Tacko off the bench in a backup big capacity after Enes leaves the following year.


I don't agree with the certainty of that statement. If he opts in and then hits free agency the next year there's obviously the chance he walks. But I think we would make a competitive offer for him. I base that on the rumored trade talks where he was considered part of the "core". If they didn't have at least some willingness to make him a long term piece I don't think that would be the case. I would expect us to make a run at re-signing him for sure.


I can concede the point about a tone of certainty. That's not necessarily what I was going for, more the eventuality of it. Sure, Danny will make an offer but I think that offer will be less than what other teams might be willing to offer. If he came back it would be on Danny's terms and likely at a significant discount off his last salary making it more likely that some other team comes in and beats it, like what happened with Horford. Not to mention the likelihood of them choosing to make do with a FA signing and internal development to leverage against it. However you want to slice it, I think if he opts in, it will likely end with him not coming back after that.
There is no statute of limitation on Twitter. Remember that...
User avatar
ConstableGeneva
RealGM
Posts: 28,893
And1: 54,327
Joined: Sep 22, 2012
 

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#576 » by ConstableGeneva » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:08 pm

Read on Twitter
User avatar
big-shot-ROB
Senior
Posts: 730
And1: 620
Joined: May 18, 2017
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#577 » by big-shot-ROB » Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:32 am

hugepatsfan wrote:
Spoiler:
big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


Already commented on the Precious part of this but also wanted to touch on the bold here. I think you have to consider the situation we're in as a contender. We have Kemba and Brown signed long term. Tatum is soon to follow. Smart and Hayward have been called core pieces which means we'd be expected to want to keep them to some financial extent.

We're probably going to be a tax team this year barring a move. After next year we can get under the tax by letting Hayward walk but if we re-sign Theis and/or use the MLE we'll probably be pushing the tax line again when you factor in Tatum's deal. The year after that Smart would be up and due for a raise.

In general you want to chase upside in the first. But in our financial situation there's also going to be great value for us even in just locking in good solid role players. If you chase upside in the mid to late 1st where we're picking you tend to get boom or bust types. Obviously a boom would help elevate us but busts can leave us in situations like this year with crappy bench play and limited financial means to replace. So it's a balancing act.


The thing is I wouldn't call Stewart a "safe" pick. I understand what you are coming from with the draft being a really good tool to add depth and contributors for each to tax-level teams.

But when I think about Stewart, I don't feel he has a safe floor you can project. There are other better bigs if we want a high floor low ceiling type of player.
User avatar
big-shot-ROB
Senior
Posts: 730
And1: 620
Joined: May 18, 2017
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#578 » by big-shot-ROB » Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:34 am

winsomme2 wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


I don't agree with the Achiuwa/RW breakdown. Achiuwa has a much stronger base, he can attack the basket in the halfcourt with better ball handling, body control, and ability to finish with either hand. He's also a solid one on one defender. I just think he's a better prospect. Plus RW can't stay healthy. Achiuwa is not my first choice but he'd fill a huge need IMO.


But wth would you need your center attacking the basket in the halfcourt?

RW is a way better vertical threat than Achiuwa. Is a better passer by a mile. Is the better roller right now.

In summary, he is better than Achiuwa at anything we want our bigs to do.

Theis is obviously miles away from these two, so both don't have a chance to start at all.
hugepatsfan
Junior
Posts: 320
And1: 264
Joined: May 28, 2020
       

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#579 » by hugepatsfan » Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:24 pm

big-shot-ROB wrote:
winsomme2 wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:Shaddiq Bey ain't that good tbh. The only skill he projects to do at an above-average level is shooting, and even in that case he didn't display a wide margin of types of shots.

Stewart is a 2nd round pick. His playstyle is outdated, and while he is a smart player, there's no path for him to start in a winning team. He is destined to be a bench big a la Kanter. And you don't waste a 1st round pick on that.

I don't think we need Precious. We already have a raw-rolling big that is better than Achiuwa at everything. Williams has more vertical leap, more mobility, better passing instics, way better shot-blocking ability, better touch around the rim.
The only thing Precious might be better is at handling the ball on a fastbreak, but again, you don't really want your 5 doing that.


I don't agree with the Achiuwa/RW breakdown. Achiuwa has a much stronger base, he can attack the basket in the halfcourt with better ball handling, body control, and ability to finish with either hand. He's also a solid one on one defender. I just think he's a better prospect. Plus RW can't stay healthy. Achiuwa is not my first choice but he'd fill a huge need IMO.


But wth would you need your center attacking the basket in the halfcourt?

RW is a way better vertical threat than Achiuwa. Is a better passer by a mile. Is the better roller right now.

In summary, he is better than Achiuwa at anything we want our bigs to do.

Theis is obviously miles away from these two, so both don't have a chance to start at all.


Achiuwa was used more as a big wing in college than as a small ball big man like he's probably going to be used in the NBA. I think his upside would be a supercharged version of Theis up to a lesser version of Adebayo. There's some optimism with his jump shot which would be a huge step - it's drawn some Jerami Grant comparisons. Defensively, he's much more switchable than RWill. Achiuwa figures to be switchable onto bigs and wings. He's considered "someone who guards 1-5" to about as high an extent as that statement realistically goes. At his upside, RWill is a better passing/handling version of Capela. He's more of a "pure 5 man" compared to Achiuwa who's more of a chess piece.

I could actually see scenarios where they play together if Achiuwa's jump shot develops. You can definitely see the Jerami Grant potential there. But then he figures also to be able to slide over and play small ball 5 while still bringing some rim protection and playing Stevens' switching defensive scheme. Overall I just think he has a unique mix of skills that could bring huge upside if tapped into the right way.
User avatar
big-shot-ROB
Senior
Posts: 730
And1: 620
Joined: May 18, 2017
   

Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#580 » by big-shot-ROB » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:00 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:
winsomme2 wrote:
I don't agree with the Achiuwa/RW breakdown. Achiuwa has a much stronger base, he can attack the basket in the halfcourt with better ball handling, body control, and ability to finish with either hand. He's also a solid one on one defender. I just think he's a better prospect. Plus RW can't stay healthy. Achiuwa is not my first choice but he'd fill a huge need IMO.


But wth would you need your center attacking the basket in the halfcourt?

RW is a way better vertical threat than Achiuwa. Is a better passer by a mile. Is the better roller right now.

In summary, he is better than Achiuwa at anything we want our bigs to do.

Theis is obviously miles away from these two, so both don't have a chance to start at all.


Achiuwa was used more as a big wing in college than as a small ball big man like he's probably going to be used in the NBA. I think his upside would be a supercharged version of Theis up to a lesser version of Adebayo. There's some optimism with his jump shot which would be a huge step - it's drawn some Jerami Grant comparisons. Defensively, he's much more switchable than RWill. Achiuwa figures to be switchable onto bigs and wings. He's considered "someone who guards 1-5" to about as high an extent as that statement realistically goes. At his upside, RWill is a better passing/handling version of Capela. He's more of a "pure 5 man" compared to Achiuwa who's more of a chess piece.

I could actually see scenarios where they play together if Achiuwa's jump shot develops. You can definitely see the Jerami Grant potential there. But then he figures also to be able to slide over and play small ball 5 while still bringing some rim protection and playing Stevens' switching defensive scheme. Overall I just think he has a unique mix of skills that could bring huge upside if tapped into the right way.


I don't see any path where Achiuwa plays along another 5 unless that 5 is someone like Jokic, Towns, Porzingis who can play in the perimetre.

Return to Boston Celtics