winsomme2 wrote:hugepatsfan wrote:winsomme2 wrote:Potential Draft Result:
#17 - Patrick Williams - dynamic wing with good size and star potential.
#26 - Reggie Perry - Dependable modern day PF/C, FT% shows potential as shot-maker.
#30 - Malachi Flynn - High floor PG with starter potential. Tremendous in PnR.
I'm a big fan of Patrick Williams for us. He's one of 2 guys I love for us at #17. I don't know that he's ever going to be able to create for himself at a high level but I think he's going to be a tough, rugged defender at the PF spot who can switch on the P&R and cover bigger SFs. The shot seems to have a solid enough foundation to be reliable and I think he shows a good ability to attack close outs and pass the ball within the offense. I don't think he's ever going to be your top scorer or a primary ball handler but as a 3&D PF he doesn't have to be.
I think he's still a bit raw so I don't think you're looking at a big time impact in year 1, but that's ok. We don't need huge year 1 impact necessarily, though obviously you'd love if we got that. It kind of depends on the Hayward situation and how many more years we have him, but down the line I think you're looking at a guy who would start at PF alongside Brown/Tatum. One potential fit issue is that I don't see him being a primary shot creator - more someone who scores off of plays created by others. I think Brown is the same type of player, even though he scores 20 a night. He gets his points off catch and shoot, off-ball cuts and then when he does iso/create for himself it's in favorable matchups. He's not a high level shot creator for himself or others right now. And then Tatum we all know has broken out in a big way this year, but playmaking for others is the one part of his game still lagging. Having Hayward as a point forward compensates for those weaknesses in Tatum/Brown. If in the long term we're going to move from that to a Patrick Williams type player alongside them, there will have to be improvement from Tatum/Brown as playmakers with the ball to compensate for that. That's not really an indictment on Williams but it's just a watch out on the long term fit.
My favorite player for us is Kira Lewis Jr because I think he'll be a star for us at PG down the line for us as a Kemba replacement and the offense-generating 2nd unit PG we need in the short term. But Patrick Williams as a bench forward now and eventual running mate alongside Tatum/Brown in Hayward's place is my second choice. I'd be very happy if one of them were there at #17.
Not as big a fan of the Reggie Perry pick. Stevens likes to switch on the P&R and I think he's a little heavy footed for that. It's not so much that I don't like Perry as it is I like some other bigs more. I think Zeke Nnaji could be a Kelly Olynyk type offensive player for us that switches on defense the way Theis does for example. I think he's a really good system fit for us. I think Paul Reed could be a big man version of Marcus Smart for us. Kind of like Grant Williams but with more length to help out in the bigger matchups. Another guy I like is Mamadi Diakite. I think he'd be a lot like Daniel Theis. Daniel Orturu I think is a bit of the same system misfit as Perry, but I think his strengths are stronger so it's more projectable and something worth altering for (the way we changed some things in how we play with Kanter, for example).
Those are just the big men. Two guys I also like for us potentially at #26 are the Arizona guards - Nico Mannion and Josh Green. Mannion is a P&R ball handler with a great shot IMO. I know he shot a bad % but he had a back injury that made it much worse. I think he's a good passer and creative finisher. He won't ever be a good defender but he tries which Stevens has shown is all he needs the PG to do to make it work. I think he's got some athleticism limitations that would prevent him from ever being an ideal starter in the way I said earlier I think Kira Lewis Jr could, but I think he addresses the 2nd unit PG we need now and for the future. Green right now is great in the open court but a bit undeveloped with his shot and handles but I think potential is there to be a good 2-way wing. Kind of a scaled back Jaylen Brown, if you will. He comes in and develops his catch and shoot game, defends multiple positions with size/athleticism/length. Over time he gets maybe a little more comfortable and can be a lower option to handle.
At #30, you're looking at kind of the same names. You mention Flynn who I think you can basically say the same things I did for Mannion earlier. That'd be a solid pick. There are a ton of PGs who fall into that, honestly. I think Xavier Tillman is an NBA ready big man who can play rotation minutes right away, though limited ceiling to ever be more than that IMO. Cassius Stanley would fit in a lot of the same ways as Green. Tyler Bey would fit in the way Patrick Williams would. I have those guys ranked lower so not the same upside but I'm talking schematic fit/role.
I'm really high on Kira Lewis as well. I'm thinking he might be off the board at 17 but would love the pick if it was him. That would change the needs at 26 and 30 a bit. Although I think other that a big and a PG I think the third pick could be BPA or a draft and stash.
I wish I had a better read on Mannion and Reed. Mannion was definitely disappointing to me this season. He's certainly a good ball handler and PnR passer. Flynn seems like an overall better player to me, though. Better shooter and finisher. A could see a back injury muddying the waters, but maybe a back injury is a red flag....Reed certainly has the stats, but I have some mobility worries about him. He seems to play kinda stiff. But I definitely see potential.
I actually think there's tons of potential in this draft as well.
I'd to get a shooter. Isaiah Joe?
#17 - Kira Lewis - Star potential. Speed demon. Would be so good in early years coming off the bench.
#26 - Zeke Nnaji - Good Shooter. Gets off the ground fast.
#30 - Cassius Stanley - Explosive athlete. Room to grow on a team with talented wings to develop under.
My biggest worries for Kira going before us are NO (projected #13) and ORL (projected #15). I'm really hoping that NO gets that last playoff spot in the West because then our MEM pick would come in at #14 and we'd jump both of them. (Obviously assuming MEM doesn't win the lottery in that scenario where we wouldn't get their pick anymore.) I think he fills an immediate need for backup PG and long term need so to me he is far and away the best option.
I wonder if maybe we could move up and land BOTH Kira Lewis and Patrick Williams. I think Patrick Williams has an NBA ready body and could play bench minutes right from the get go. Could make Grant Williams expendable. Some combination of #26, #30, Grant Williams, next year's pick... I wonder how high that could get us. I think Kira Lewis Jr is an ideal PG for us and Patrick Williams is an ideal PF. So I'd love to get those guys because I think those could be your eventual replacements for Kemba/Hayward alongside Tatum/Brown. Love both of their upside and could see that being an awesome complimentary roster down the line.
Kemba / Kira Lewis Jr.
Brown / Langford
Hayward / Smart
Tatum / Patrick Williams
Theis / Kanter / R. Williams
I love all that talent/athleticism on the second unit (hopefully R. Williams overtakes Kanter next year). I'd be thrilled if we come away with that and then add some vet min deals to round out the roster.
I'm worried about Reed's "stiffness" on offense. But defensively I think he's fine. I think he just doesn't have great feel for the game and comfort level on offense. I think the spacing of the NBA game will help him though. When you move the 3 point line out you just spread everyone out more so you're not as in close quarters all the time. I think that'll help him.
Back injury for Mannion would definitely be concerning if it was start of something potentially chronic. I haven't seen anything indicating that though. He also fits Ainge's history of liking to draft 5 star recruits for their natural talent even if their one year at college was rocky.
I really like that draft you have there. One guy I left out of my write up earlier was Jordan Nwora. I think he might be a nice fit here over Stanley if they're looking for someone to compete for some minutes quicker. But Stanley has some nice upside IMO.