POLL: Are the Boston Celtics Legit Contenders THIS Season?

[Bleeding Green]

Maybe having an All-NBA player is a requirement. Maybe not. But here's a stat/fact...

38 of the last 40 finalists have had at worst one All-NBA teamer on their roster (usually 1st team or 2nd team). The exceptions were the 2010 Celtics and the 2000 Pacers.

Kemba and Tatum have decent shots at third team I'd say. At least I can't find six better guards or six better forwards. Kemba got it last year so he's got a foot in the door, Tatum might just not get it due to others having longers reputations, though.

Only 15 All-NBA players every year but look at all the guys on it last year who are injured and have no shot this year: Durant, Curry, Irving, PG13, Blake Griffin. It's like this year we'll have fringe-ish players on the All-NBA. Like Eric Bledsoe or something. Really good player, but not someone who you'd consider All-NBA typically.

[5InOfLouisville]

To non-answer, i thought that at the beginning of the year we COULD be fringe containers with a lot of improvement from our youth and a lot of luck

The improvement from our youth has been even greater than i imagined, and i dont think we’ve been particularly lucky.

There are plenty of hypothetical opponents that could knock us out in the playoffs, but i really only think that one team is definitely superior in the east and i think we’ve got a punchers chance against them.

We would be the underdog in the finals too. But is any team a real juggernaut?

I worry we arent quite ready and not battle-tested enough. And our bench kinda sucks.

But part of me, the fan part, kind of believes that jb/jt are actually both built for the playoffs. They want that stage. I know thats somewhat wishful thinking, but they flashed 2 years ago..

So, yeah, i dont know

[24istheLAW]

IMO, the poll needed more granularity. At least three options:

"Legit" contenders
"Fringe" contenders
Not contenders

Might have even split "fringe" into two tiers, just to get a more precise read on the forum's temperature. For example, I would call us "upper fringe".

If I had to spitball a way to define the buckets being used here I think this makes some sense:

Fringe contender = Phil Jackson's 40 wins before 20 losses
Legit contender = 60+ wins and a first-team All-NBA guy

[djFan71]

We're a top 5 team, so we're definitely in the contenders bucket. I probably still throw the 3 teams with legit superstars ahead of us (LAL, LAC, MIL) since the game changes and calls matter, etc. So, I voted no for LEGIT contenders. But, we're in that next tier of contendership, whatever you want to call it.

Our top 6 can hang with anyone. Kanter showed last year he can be effective in the playoffs. Grant/Wanamaker seem to be the wildcards. Can they be effective enough in limited minutes to keep the team afloat? Timelord too, if he can make it back.

[LuckyLeprechaun]

I think we are capable of taking a series against anyone in the league, but there's a handful of teams we would be clear underdogs against. Maybe we can pull off an upset in 1 series, but if we have to pull off 3 upsets, that's highly improbable.

[Ed Pinkney]

Voted yes.

They definitely "could" win the title this season which by definition makes them a contender. Odds are still lower than some of the other teams, and to be honest I would very, very surprised (pleasantly) if they even made the Finals. But Toronto showed last season that if you are a good team with a player who can take over a game you can win a title if you get a little luck (obviously Toronto got a lot of luck, two risky trades paid off, they got a series winning shot that hit the ring 47 times before going in, and the best team in the league lost two All NBA first team level players to season ending injuries).

So hey, why not the Celtics?!?!!

[Gant]

They could win the title, but everything has to fall perfectly into place for that to happen. There's likely a greater chance to get knocked out in the first round.


To win the championship they'd need:

* Health across the whole rotation for a length of time, long enough to get the motor fully roaring. The alchemy producing that type of chemistry is rare.

* Tatum and Brown would have to grow even more as players in the next few months.

* A favorable bracket would also help.

* As would the #2 seed.


Winning with your best player being 22 years old is a real longshot. It hardly ever happens. Most playoff opponents will have at least one veteran all-league star.

As an alternate to another leap by Tatum, the Celtics do have a slim chance if their best player is someone else. Very few teams have this many high quality players. What the fragile title hope is built on is that Boston's unusual depth of top players could overcome the best single player on the court when need be.

[zoyathedestroya]

Raptors 2019 (team that beat the Bucks) vs. Celtics 2020 -- my very unbiased and 5-year-oldish evaluation

Vinnie SexPants aka French VanVleet > Fred VanVleet
Kanter on One Leg > Old Man Gasol
Big Dick Energy > Ibaka
Smart > Lowry
Kemba > Siakam
Jaylen > Powell
Haywood > Danny Green
Tatum >>>> Kawhi

Therefore, the Boston Celtics are legit contenders.

[Fencer reregistered]

Yes, and it's not as far-fetched as some people think.

The ONLY teams against whom the Celtics could reasonably be considered serious underdogs are MIL, LAL, and LAC. Both LA teams have health/age issues, and anyway the "serious underdog" assessment is pretty debatable in each case. The teams in the East that supposedly will give the Celtics matchup fits are ones they beat in the playoffs two years ago and have beaten in a game each already this regular season.

[captain green]

Nope not a contender. Tatum is 22 and looks solid we have a great pg we have a young beast in brown. But we handicap ourselves with a roster of log jams. Ainge says we are fine at center and I guess it's better than saying we suck there but a roster with 7 rookies and no real center to show I take us out of contender status. Great coach great owners. Our 8 man rotation isn't bad at all but come playoffs against the deep bangers we can't hang. Once and if timelord shows up or we address the pf or center then I'll come around.
Until then were just a top 8 team.(currently 5th)
Bucks, clippers, lakers, raptors have complete teams we don't we are asking Brad to keep overachieving. I still think we can beat raptors and can get to eastern championship but that's it.

[OldCeltics]

We can beat Lakers/Clippers. But Milwauke/Sixers we struggle with. So it really depends on who we get matched up with. An how Stevens adjusts in the series.

[Big Joke Line]

Contenders, maybe, Legit Contenders? no. I mean last year the Raptors were contenders, but not legit contenders, then the entire GSW team went down with injury. So in that manner, we can for sure get to the Bucks, and we can beat the bucks, but not in a 7 game series on the road in the playoffs where the NBA wants Giannis to be the next face of the NBA after Lebron. He will foul out our entire team, elbow guys out of the way for dunks, and shoot free throws after.

Sure, we won't have our PG forcing a switch to pick him up at half court, but without a huge injury to Giannis and Lebron/Kawhi we really aren't there yet. Even the GSW who's main young pieces when they won the first time were Curry 27, Green 25, Klay 25, Barnes was 23ish as the 4th wheel. Iggy and Bogut were the 30 year old plus vet all stars.

Now, Kemba is more than Iggy or Bogut ever where and will be 30, Hayward is probably still ahead of Iggy at the same age even with injury, but Tatum is turning 22 (or is it 18?), JB is 23, Smart 25. Give it two more years if Hayward stays and we can afford it.

Tatum 24, JB 25, Smart 27, Hayward/Kemba at 31 and which young guys sort themselves out in this rotation (williams and williams? Romeo?) and I think we got a shot for multiple years of being a true contender. Lebron will be 38, Bucks will be broken up because of money. Raptors left with Siakam and Van Fleet. Simmons still just trying for rookie of the year.

I agree with your reasoning but my heart says yes they are Legit contenders this year.

Gave you the thumb b/c I’m a sucker for a Simmons ROY joke every time.

[Curmudgeon]

Of course they are contenders. They're a dark horse, but dark horses sometimes win.

[zoyathedestroya]

BREAKING NEWS: Jaylen Brown doesn't care about no damn RealGM poll.

Read on Twitter

[Celts17Pride]

Yes but a long shot. They are definitely one of the teams that could win it. I put the probability at about 5-10%.

[exculpatory]

**** yes.
I will comment further when 1) I am off the mind altering drugs I am taking for awful pain in upper right molar pending root canal on Friday (gotta get it done before I fly to Utah next week to ski); & 2) so I can think of some reasons.

[Fencer reregistered]

Yes but a long shot. They are definitely one of the teams that could win it. I put the probability at about 5-10%.

That's fair.

What's the probability of Milwaukee NOT coming out of the East?
What's the probability of the Celtics coming out of the East, conditional upon Milwaukee not doing so?
What's the probablity of the Celtics winning the championship, conditional upon them making the FInals?

Multiply those three numbers.

My quick answers are 40%, 35%, and 35%, which multiplies to 4.9% (i.e. 5%).

Ask me tomorrow and my numbers will surely be a little different.

[exculpatory]

Yes but a long shot. They are definitely one of the teams that could win it. I put the probability at about 5-10%.

That's fair.

What's the probability of Milwaukee NOT coming out of the East?
What's the probability of the Celtics coming out of the East, conditional upon Milwaukee not doing so?
What's the probablity of the Celtics winning the championship, conditional upon them making the FInals?

Multiply those three numbers.

My quick answers are 40%, 35%, and 35%, which multiplies to 4.9% (i.e. 5%).

Ask me tomorrow and my numbers will surely be a little different.

Too rational.

[Mr_Mojo_Risin]

Yes but a long shot. They are definitely one of the teams that could win it. I put the probability at about 5-10%.

That's fair.

What's the probability of Milwaukee NOT coming out of the East?
What's the probability of the Celtics coming out of the East, conditional upon Milwaukee not doing so?
What's the probablity of the Celtics winning the championship, conditional upon them making the FInals?

Multiply those three numbers.

My quick answers are 40%, 35%, and 35%, which multiplies to 4.9% (i.e. 5%).

Ask me tomorrow and my numbers will surely be a little different.

Ummm.....the last two have only one answer, yes.

Celtics cannot come out of the East if Milwaukee do.

Celtics cannot win the championship without making the Finals.

Unless I'm missing something in your post and you meant:

What's the probability of Milwaukee NOT coming out of the East?
What's the probability of the Celtics coming out of the East?
What's the probability of the Celtics winning the championship?

My quick answers are 40%, 35%, and 35%, which multiplies to 4.9% (i.e. 5%).

[SichtingLives]

You is til you ain't