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Does our team doctor exculpatory or anyone else want to chime in with some crowdsourced word on the e-street? Am I going to die during my dry spell

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Does our team doctor exculpatory or anyone else want to chime in with some crowdsourced word on the e-street? Am I going to die during my dry spell

As per the CDC/NIH (Tony Fauci is the best of the best - Google him), it will likely start community-spreading in America sooner rather than later.
And many people (including me) just lost (on paper) a massive amount of money in the last 2 days.
Both of these things totally & completely suck.
Avoid large crowds.
Ask Fencer what to do with your portfolio.

exculpatory wrote:

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Does our team doctor exculpatory or anyone else want to chime in with some crowdsourced word on the e-street? Am I going to die during my dry spell

As per the CDC/NIH (Tony Fauci is the best of the best - Google him), it will likely start community-spreading in America sooner rather than later.
And many people (including me) just lost (on paper) a massive amount of money in the last 2 days.
Both of these things totally & completely suck.
Avoid large crowds.
Ask Fencer what to do with your portfolio.

This isnt financial advice because I dont know your situation, so dont adjust your portfolio based on it. But be wary of ETFs in general— they're amplification devices that will one day be viewed under a much more skeptical lens than they are today. The same feedback loops that make them so attractive when momentum is positive make them dangerous when it swings the other way.

Meh, the markets were on a bubble anyway and this virus is just a pin that burst the balloon. It would have popped anyway. As for the virus, it appears that 99% of the people who contract it survive, so most of us will live through it.

SmartWentCrazy wrote:

exculpatory wrote:

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Does our team doctor exculpatory or anyone else want to chime in with some crowdsourced word on the e-street? Am I going to die during my dry spell

As per the CDC/NIH (Tony Fauci is the best of the best - Google him), it will likely start community-spreading in America sooner rather than later.
And many people (including me) just lost (on paper) a massive amount of money in the last 2 days.
Both of these things totally & completely suck.
Avoid large crowds.
Ask Fencer what to do with your portfolio.

This isnt financial advice because I dont know your situation, so dont adjust your portfolio based on it. But be wary of ETFs in general— they're amplification devices that will one day be viewed under a much more skeptical lens than they are today. The same feedback loops that make them so attractive when momentum is positive make them dangerous when it swings the other way.

Thanks.
I have a very good financial adviser.

Curmudgeon wrote:Meh, the markets were on a bubble anyway and this virus is just a pin that burst the balloon. It would have popped anyway. As for the virus, it appears that 99% of the people who contract it survive, so most of us will live through it.

IMO, this isnt a burst bubble. This is a temporary set back based on fear.

Yes, my advisor has likewise taken steps to mitigate the losses. The problem is that the profit taking from selling securities and concerting them into cash as a hedge against the falling markets will generate a large tax bill in April of 2021.

SmartWentCrazy wrote:

Curmudgeon wrote:Meh, the markets were on a bubble anyway and this virus is just a pin that burst the balloon. It would have popped anyway. As for the virus, it appears that 99% of the people who contract it survive, so most of us will live through it.

IMO, this isnt a burst bubble. This is a temporary set back based on fear.

It's not just fear of the virus. It's fear of the massive debt that has been created by Trump and his economic advisors, along with the real possibility that the next administration won't be as friendly to the rich folks-- you know, the top tenth of one percent who earn more than 50% of all capital gains.

Lokk at the bright side. Your favorite billionaire oligarch has lost alot more money this week than you have.

Curmudgeon wrote:

SmartWentCrazy wrote:

Curmudgeon wrote:Meh, the markets were on a bubble anyway and this virus is just a pin that burst the balloon. It would have popped anyway. As for the virus, it appears that 99% of the people who contract it survive, so most of us will live through it.

IMO, this isnt a burst bubble. This is a temporary set back based on fear.

It's not just fear of the virus. It's fear of the massive debt that has been created by Trump and his economic advisors, along with the real possibility that the next administration won't be as friendly to the rich folks-- you know, the top tenth of one percent who earn more than 50% of all capital gains.

Lokk at the bright side. Your favorite billionaire oligarch has lost alot more money this week than you have.

I think people know that a lot of people are swimming naked and are real afraid of the tide going out. The tide will go out. Soon, too, would be my bet [guessing within a year]. Just dont think its going out now.

My wife is a public health expert and a physician. She says take the same precautions you should every cold & flu season: wash your hands, try to avoid crowds, wear a mask and disinfect surfaces if you are sick or are interacting with sick people to avoid spreading diseases, get plenty of sleep, and call your doctor immediately if you have high fever or difficulty breathing. She says that COVID-19 is dangerous, but so are other respiratory diseases like the flu, and most people who are not members of a vulnerable population (elderly, immunocompromised, etc) will be ok, so take reasonable precautions but don't panic or become too preoccupied.

Slax wrote:My wife is a public health expert and a physician. She says take the same precautions you should every cold & flu season: wash your hands, try to avoid crowds, wear a mask and disinfect surfaces if you are sick or are interacting with sick people to avoid spreading diseases, get plenty of sleep, and call your doctor immediately if you have high fever or difficulty breathing. She says that COVID-19 is dangerous, but so are other respiratory diseases like the flu, and most people who are not members of a vulnerable population (elderly, immunocompromised, etc) will be ok, so take reasonable precautions but don't panic or become too preoccupied.

I endorse what she said.

The problem is that the rising tide didn't float all boats this time. It only floated the megayachts. The number of middle class and lower middle class folks living from paycheck to paycheck is enormous. Total U.S. consumer debt is currently at 13.86 trillion, of which 443.96 billion is credit card debt-- up six percent over last year and 34% over the past five years.

The balance of the 13.86 trillion is made up of mortgages (9.44 trillion), auto loans (1.3 trillion) and student loans (1.5 trillion). People are hurting badly, working multiple jobs to make ends meet. The DOW and NASDAQ mean nothing to them because they don't have the money to invest, except maybe a few bucks in a 401k which they can't withdraw anyway (without penalty).

exculpatory wrote:

Slax wrote:My wife is a public health expert and a physician. She says take the same precautions you should every cold & flu season: wash your hands, try to avoid crowds, wear a mask and disinfect surfaces if you are sick or are interacting with sick people to avoid spreading diseases, get plenty of sleep, and call your doctor immediately if you have high fever or difficulty breathing. She says that COVID-19 is dangerous, but so are other respiratory diseases like the flu, and most people who are not members of a vulnerable population (elderly, immunocompromised, etc) will be ok, so take reasonable precautions but don't panic or become too preoccupied.

I endorse what she said.

I find it's usually a safe bet to endorse what she says. She's much smarter than me.

From the CDC:

For confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death. Symptoms can include:

Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath

Sounds an awful lot like the flu to me. I'm not stressing.

Per The Guardian, the mortality rate is 2% - in the "epicenter" of the outbreak in China. We are less crowded, more hygienic, and probably have better medical care.

Of course it's a pandemic and it will spread. The good news is that most folks will live through it.

Curmudgeon wrote:The problem is that the rising tide didn't float all boats this time. It only floated the megayachts. The number of middle class and lower middle class folks living from paycheck to paycheck is enormous. Total U.S. consumer debt is currently at 13.86 trillion, of which 443.96 billion is credit card debt-- up six percent over last year and 34% over the past five years.

The balance of the 13.86 trillion is made up of mortgages (9.44 trillion), auto loans (1.3 trillion) and student loans (1.5 trillion). People are hurting badly, working multiple jobs to make ends meet. The DOW and NASDAQ mean nothing to them because they don't have the money to invest, except maybe a few bucks in a 401k which they can't withdraw anyway (without penalty).

Wont get an argument from me on this at all— its why i hate that people use the market as a proxy for the economy. Or how the president uses it as justification to pressure the fed fed lower rates.

threrf23 wrote:From the CDC:

For confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death. Symptoms can include:

Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath

Sounds an awful lot like the flu to me. I'm not stressing.

Per The Guardian, the mortality rate is 2% - in the "epicenter" of the outbreak in China. We are less crowded, more hygienic, and probably have better medical care.

I have it at 3.3% if the numbers released by China are reliable. 80,413 cases, 2708 deaths. I imagine if you're a healthy adult between 18-50 living in a western country the fatality rate is significantly lower, though. Still zero deaths in the US.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

SmartWentCrazy wrote:

Curmudgeon wrote:The problem is that the rising tide didn't float all boats this time. It only floated the megayachts. The number of middle class and lower middle class folks living from paycheck to paycheck is enormous. Total U.S. consumer debt is currently at 13.86 trillion, of which 443.96 billion is credit card debt-- up six percent over last year and 34% over the past five years.

The balance of the 13.86 trillion is made up of mortgages (9.44 trillion), auto loans (1.3 trillion) and student loans (1.5 trillion). People are hurting badly, working multiple jobs to make ends meet. The DOW and NASDAQ mean nothing to them because they don't have the money to invest, except maybe a few bucks in a 401k which they can't withdraw anyway (without penalty).

Wont get an argument from me on this at all— its why i hate that people use the market as a proxy for the economy. Or how the president uses it as justification to pressure the fed fed lower rates.

The problem is that the economy depends on these debt strapped middle and lower middle class people to continue to buy products and services to keep corporate profits up and to pay taxes to keep the government running. There aren't enough rich people to sustain the system, and in any event they''ve got their money sheltered in the Caymans (or elsewhere) and don't pay anything close to their fair share of taxes. At some point consumers say "no mas". That point may be close at hand.

Slax wrote:My wife is a public health expert and a physician. She says take the same precautions you should every cold & flu season: wash your hands, try to avoid crowds, wear a mask and disinfect surfaces if you are sick or are interacting with sick people to avoid spreading diseases, get plenty of sleep, and call your doctor immediately if you have high fever or difficulty breathing. She says that COVID-19 is dangerous, but so are other respiratory diseases like the flu, and most people who are not members of a vulnerable population (elderly, immunocompromised, etc) will be ok, so take reasonable precautions but don't panic or become too preoccupied.

BUT WHAT ABOUT MY PORTFOLIO?