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What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1061 » by Stan34 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:08 pm

The Comedian wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Being compared to Middleton is supposed to be an insult?

Dude is a multiple time all star who has gotten all nba consideration.

Not only that, but Brown is clearly already as good as Middleton today, if not better.

Plus, this thread asking about Brown's ceiling.

Middleton is at his absolute peak, he's 29. It's very rare that a guy improves at his age.

Brown meanwhile is only 24. Guys typically peak between age 27-29. So it would be shocking if Brown doesn't improve enough over the next few years to surpass Middleton's peak. And again, one might argue Brown has already (at age 24) surpassed Middleton's peak with what Brown has done this season..


Middleton last season per 36 (the Bucks smashed everyone so the starters didn’t play a ton) put up 25/7/5 on a 62% TS, and was much better defensively than Jaylen this season. Was a fringe all nba season, which is where I have Jaylen peaking around, but with better raw numbers, and over a much longer time period. I’m just saying Middleton peaked pretty damn high last season, and saying Jaylen may max out at that is a compliment, not an insult.

Numbers are somewhat skewered this season, there’s zero defense being played. I think that will correct back some next season, and we may see players numbers drop off a bit.


Real basketball is playoff basketball. Jaylen is better than Middleton when PO basketball comes.
Take a look at the stats. Except of the series 2018 vs the Celtics Middleton is really ineffective in PO and he is playing with an MVP
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1062 » by The Comedian » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:17 pm

Stan34 wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Hal14 wrote:Not only that, but Brown is clearly already as good as Middleton today, if not better.

Plus, this thread asking about Brown's ceiling.

Middleton is at his absolute peak, he's 29. It's very rare that a guy improves at his age.

Brown meanwhile is only 24. Guys typically peak between age 27-29. So it would be shocking if Brown doesn't improve enough over the next few years to surpass Middleton's peak. And again, one might argue Brown has already (at age 24) surpassed Middleton's peak with what Brown has done this season..


Middleton last season per 36 (the Bucks smashed everyone so the starters didn’t play a ton) put up 25/7/5 on a 62% TS, and was much better defensively than Jaylen this season. Was a fringe all nba season, which is where I have Jaylen peaking around, but with better raw numbers, and over a much longer time period. I’m just saying Middleton peaked pretty damn high last season, and saying Jaylen may max out at that is a compliment, not an insult.

Numbers are somewhat skewered this season, there’s zero defense being played. I think that will correct back some next season, and we may see players numbers drop off a bit.


Real basketball is playoff basketball. Jaylen is better than Middleton when PO basketball comes.
Take a look at the stats. Except of the series 2018 vs the Celtics Middleton is really ineffective in PO and he is playing with an MVP


But I’m not directly comparing them as players lol. My point is that saying Jaylen will peak around where Middleton peaked last year is a compliment. That’s a fringe all nba player, which is usually a top 20ish type of guy.

That’s not exactly some negative indictment of Jaylen. Especially when I said he will do it over a much longer time period than Middleton.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1063 » by BostonCouchGM » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:35 pm

The Comedian wrote:
Stan34 wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Middleton last season per 36 (the Bucks smashed everyone so the starters didn’t play a ton) put up 25/7/5 on a 62% TS, and was much better defensively than Jaylen this season. Was a fringe all nba season, which is where I have Jaylen peaking around, but with better raw numbers, and over a much longer time period. I’m just saying Middleton peaked pretty damn high last season, and saying Jaylen may max out at that is a compliment, not an insult.

Numbers are somewhat skewered this season, there’s zero defense being played. I think that will correct back some next season, and we may see players numbers drop off a bit.


Real basketball is playoff basketball. Jaylen is better than Middleton when PO basketball comes.
Take a look at the stats. Except of the series 2018 vs the Celtics Middleton is really ineffective in PO and he is playing with an MVP


But I’m not directly comparing them as players lol. My point is that saying Jaylen will peak around where Middleton peaked last year is a compliment. That’s a fringe all nba player, which is usually a top 20ish type of guy.

That’s not exactly some negative indictment of Jaylen. Especially when I said he will do it over a much longer time period than Middleton.


He's either already as good or will potentially be as good if not slightly better than peak Middleton. But that is not a top 20 player. Let's do another list!!!!

Lebron
Kawhi
KD
Steph
Giannis
Kyrie
Lillard
Luka
Zion
Embiid
Jokic
Harden
Simmons
Gobert
Tatum
Beal
Mitchell
Trae
Fox
SGA
Butler
George
Sabonis
Bam
LaVine
Booker
Randle
Holiday
Ingram
Ball
Paul
Morant

discuss amongst yourselves
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1064 » by Hal14 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:01 pm

BostonCouchGM wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
Stan34 wrote:
Real basketball is playoff basketball. Jaylen is better than Middleton when PO basketball comes.
Take a look at the stats. Except of the series 2018 vs the Celtics Middleton is really ineffective in PO and he is playing with an MVP


But I’m not directly comparing them as players lol. My point is that saying Jaylen will peak around where Middleton peaked last year is a compliment. That’s a fringe all nba player, which is usually a top 20ish type of guy.

That’s not exactly some negative indictment of Jaylen. Especially when I said he will do it over a much longer time period than Middleton.


He's either already as good or will potentially be as good if not slightly better than peak Middleton. But that is not a top 20 player. Let's do another list!!!!

Lebron
Kawhi
KD
Steph
Giannis
Kyrie
Lillard
Luka
Zion
Embiid
Jokic
Harden
Simmons
Gobert
Tatum
Beal
Mitchell
Trae
Fox
SGA
Butler
George
Sabonis
Bam
LaVine
Booker
Randle
Holiday
Ingram
Ball
Paul
Morant

discuss amongst yourselves

From your list, Brown is either better than the following guys or it's at least debatable:
Bam
Lavine
Holiday
Ball
Ingram
George (similar to Brown but chokes every year in the playoffs and getting up there in age)
SGA
Sabonis
Beal (Beal is slightly better right now, but beyond this year who do you want on your team? Debatable, Brown is bigger, better defender, better rebounder, much younger, less ball dominant, etc.)
Simmons
Irving (getting up there in age, has been known to be a team cancer, below average defender, injury liability, etc.)
Fox
Gobert
Randle (is he a 1 year wonder? Can he keep up what he has done this year?
Booker
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1065 » by The Comedian » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:08 pm

Hal14 wrote:
BostonCouchGM wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
But I’m not directly comparing them as players lol. My point is that saying Jaylen will peak around where Middleton peaked last year is a compliment. That’s a fringe all nba player, which is usually a top 20ish type of guy.

That’s not exactly some negative indictment of Jaylen. Especially when I said he will do it over a much longer time period than Middleton.


He's either already as good or will potentially be as good if not slightly better than peak Middleton. But that is not a top 20 player. Let's do another list!!!!

Lebron
Kawhi
KD
Steph
Giannis
Kyrie
Lillard
Luka
Zion
Embiid
Jokic
Harden
Simmons
Gobert
Tatum
Beal
Mitchell
Trae
Fox
SGA
Butler
George
Sabonis
Bam
LaVine
Booker
Randle
Holiday
Ingram
Ball
Paul
Morant

discuss amongst yourselves

From your list, Brown is either better than the following guys or it's at least debatable:
Bam
Lavine
Holiday
Ball
Ingram
George (similar to Brown but chokes every year in the playoffs and getting up there in age)
SGA
Sabonis
Beal (Beal is slightly better right now, but beyond this year who do you want on your team? Debatable, Brown is bigger, better defender, better rebounder, much younger, less ball dominant, etc.)
Simmons
Irving (getting up there in age, has been known to be a team cancer, below average defender, injury liability, etc.)
Fox
Gobert
Randle (is he a 1 year wonder? Can he keep up what he has done this year?
Booker


Beal/Kyrie/Bam/George/Gobert are all definitely better, and I don’t see that changing for a few years, though I guess he could surpass someone like PG in a year or two. Guys like SGA/Booker/Fox/Simmons/Ingram are similar players to Jaylen IMO. I’d definitely take him over Ball/Holiday/Lavine/Sabonis/Randle though.

Jaylen is such a polarizing player on this board lol. Posters have him somewhere between top 15, and top 35ish, pretty big range. I have him around 25, but could see a little bit higher. I do strongly disagree with saying Beal is only slightly better, there is a huge gap between the two of them, and Beal isn’t exactly old, he’s just entering his prime.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1066 » by djFan71 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:47 am

The Comedian wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
Spoiler:
BostonCouchGM wrote:
He's either already as good or will potentially be as good if not slightly better than peak Middleton. But that is not a top 20 player. Let's do another list!!!!

Lebron
Kawhi
KD
Steph
Giannis
Kyrie
Lillard
Luka
Zion
Embiid
Jokic
Harden
Simmons
Gobert
Tatum
Beal
Mitchell
Trae
Fox
SGA
Butler
George
Sabonis
Bam
LaVine
Booker
Randle
Holiday
Ingram
Ball
Paul
Morant

discuss amongst yourselves

From your list, Brown is either better than the following guys or it's at least debatable:
Bam
Lavine
Holiday
Ball
Ingram
George (similar to Brown but chokes every year in the playoffs and getting up there in age)
SGA
Sabonis
Beal (Beal is slightly better right now, but beyond this year who do you want on your team? Debatable, Brown is bigger, better defender, better rebounder, much younger, less ball dominant, etc.)
Simmons
Irving (getting up there in age, has been known to be a team cancer, below average defender, injury liability, etc.)
Fox
Gobert
Randle (is he a 1 year wonder? Can he keep up what he has done this year?
Booker


Beal/Kyrie/Bam/George/Gobert are all definitely better, and I don’t see that changing for a few years, though I guess he could surpass someone like PG in a year or two. Guys like SGA/Booker/Fox/Simmons/Ingram are similar players to Jaylen IMO. I’d definitely take him over Ball/Holiday/Lavine/Sabonis/Randle though.

Jaylen is such a polarizing player on this board lol. Posters have him somewhere between top 15, and top 35ish, pretty big range. I have him around 25, but could see a little bit higher. I do strongly disagree with saying Beal is only slightly better, there is a huge gap between the two of them, and Beal isn’t exactly old, he’s just entering his prime.

Hater. :)

But, I think that group in the 15-35 range is super fluid, based on context, etc. So, until you become clear top 15ish, it almost doesn't matter where you fall in the next 15-20.

His 2 main problems keeping him in that 2nd tier of stars are lack of playmaking and turnovers. I think this year the turnovers are in large part due to his green light to try to improve his playmaking. And, I'm all for that approach. If he ever gets over the hump and can score like he does now and is a good playmaker for others? Then you can start talking top 20 for sure. He's a hard worker, so it's possible, but I'm not positive he gets over that hump. As far as peak, I think his might be earlier than others, since he does rely on athleticism a little more than savvy/bbiq.

Team defense I may have given up on, but doesn't exclude him from being top 20 by any means.

Also, only the Hater part was specifically addressed to you, TC, the rest is just general replying.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1067 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:26 pm

PG13 is only 30 years old and averaging 24 ppg on 108 TS+. He's shooting .432 from the three on 7.6 attempts per game, gets to the line 4 times a game and shoots almost 90% from there.
Jaylen is scoring 24.5 ppg on 104 TS+ despite the benefit of an unsustainable .495 shooting from the long midrange (10% of his attempts).
PG13 is a bigger, stronger Jaylen who shoots better than Jaylen, has more explosiveness, is more fluid, creative, and has better handles. This is a comparison of the two as individual scorers, which is Jaylen's only good basketball thing he does.
I don't think Jaylen surpasses PG13 in two years, because that would involve Jaylen completely transforming himself several tiers above where he is now.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1068 » by Stan34 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:52 pm

BK_2020 wrote:PG13 is only 30 years old and averaging 24 ppg on 108 TS+. He's shooting .432 from the three on 7.6 attempts per game, gets to the line 4 times a game and shoots almost 90% from there.
Jaylen is scoring 24.5 ppg on 104 TS+ despite the benefit of an unsustainable .495 shooting from the long midrange (10% of his attempts).
PG13 is a bigger, stronger Jaylen who shoots better than Jaylen, has more explosiveness, is more fluid, creative, and has better handles. This is a comparison of the two as individual scorers, which is Jaylen's only good basketball thing he does.
I don't think Jaylen surpasses PG13 in two years, because that would involve Jaylen completely transforming himself several tiers above where he is now.


PG is 31 (10 days) not 30. At the same stage of their carrier assist / TO ratio are exactly the same:
PG 3.5 and 2.8
JB 3.4 and 2.7

Paul George has not that great handle, right now is 5.4 and 3.2

PG is a choker, jaylen have always had another gear for the playoffs

I don't understand why alot of celtics fans try to diminish jaylen's value. Remember, you and other look at player like PG seeing only the merits while with jaylen you see only defects.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1069 » by The Comedian » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:00 pm

Stan34 wrote:
BK_2020 wrote:PG13 is only 30 years old and averaging 24 ppg on 108 TS+. He's shooting .432 from the three on 7.6 attempts per game, gets to the line 4 times a game and shoots almost 90% from there.
Jaylen is scoring 24.5 ppg on 104 TS+ despite the benefit of an unsustainable .495 shooting from the long midrange (10% of his attempts).
PG13 is a bigger, stronger Jaylen who shoots better than Jaylen, has more explosiveness, is more fluid, creative, and has better handles. This is a comparison of the two as individual scorers, which is Jaylen's only good basketball thing he does.
I don't think Jaylen surpasses PG13 in two years, because that would involve Jaylen completely transforming himself several tiers above where he is now.


PG is 31 (10 days) not 30. At the same stage of their carrier assist / TO ratio are exactly the same:
PG 3.5 and 2.8
JB 3.4 and 2.7

Paul George has not that great handle, right now is 5.4 and 3.2

PG is a choker, jaylen have always had another gear for the playoffs

I don't understand why alot of celtics fans try to diminish jaylen's value. Remember, you and other look at player like PG seeing only the merits while with jaylen you see only defects.


Where do you rank Jaylen now? And what do you think his ceiling is? Just curious, because people seem all over the place with Jaylen.

I strongly disagree that a lot of Celtics fans try to “diminish” Jaylen’s value. People just have different opinions, and there are arguments on both sides.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1070 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:03 pm

Actually Jaylen has not had "another gear for the playoffs" in the small sample available.
2019-2020, Jaylen's TS% remains almost identical but his per 36 scoring drops from 21.6 to 19.8 despite Hayward being out for most of the playoffs. His TO% and Assist% remain pretty much identical from the regular season to the playoffs. Oh, he shut down Siakam like the entire league did.
2018-2019, a 9 game sample. Jaylen's scoring rate drops by 3 points per 36.
2017-2018, his scoring rate improves but this is the hospital season and also Jaylen's 2nd year where he was playing a far smaller role earlier in the season.
In the 2 seasons where Jaylen was an undisputed starter his production dropped in the playoffs by 2 to 3 points per 36.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1071 » by Stan34 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:49 pm

BK_2020 wrote:Actually Jaylen has not had "another gear for the playoffs" in the small sample available.
2019-2020, Jaylen's TS% remains almost identical but his per 36 scoring drops from 21.6 to 19.8 despite Hayward being out for most of the playoffs. His TO% and Assist% remain pretty much identical from the regular season to the playoffs. Oh, he shut down Siakam like the entire league did.
2018-2019, a 9 game sample. Jaylen's scoring rate drops by 3 points per 36.
2017-2018, his scoring rate improves but this is the hospital season and also Jaylen's 2nd year where he was playing a far smaller role earlier in the season.
In the 2 seasons where Jaylen was an undisputed starter his production dropped in the playoffs by 2 to 3 points per 36.
Year 2 Jaylen

RS 14.5 pt 465% FG 395% 3 540% 2 644% FT

PO 18 pts 466% FG 393% 3 520% 640% FT

Pretty identical but PO basket is another sport. PG numbers in the last years drop significantly

Year 3 Jaylen

RS 13 pt 465 FG 344% 3 529% 2 658 FT

PO 13.9 pt 506 FG 350% 3 638% 2 FT 767 FT

Much much better efficiency

Year 4 Jaylen

RS 20.3 pt 481 FG 382% 3 543% 2 724% FT

PO 21.8 pt 476 FG 358% 3 560% 2 841% FT

Better in points, slightly less from 3, Better from 2 and much better from the FTL

Jaylen Brown is always more focused in PO and Stevens always remarks that.



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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1072 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:32 pm

Year 3 Jaylen, really? You are looking at playoffs where Jaylen was a 4th option taking 9 FGA per game as proof that he is some clutch monster who elevates his game. PG13 has not had a playoffs where he took less than 10 FGA per games since he was 21 years old.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1073 » by Hal14 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:57 pm

BK_2020 wrote:Actually Jaylen has not had "another gear for the playoffs" in the small sample available.
2019-2020, Jaylen's TS% remains almost identical but his per 36 scoring drops from 21.6 to 19.8 despite Hayward being out for most of the playoffs. His TO% and Assist% remain pretty much identical from the regular season to the playoffs. Oh, he shut down Siakam like the entire league did.
2018-2019, a 9 game sample. Jaylen's scoring rate drops by 3 points per 36.
2017-2018, his scoring rate improves but this is the hospital season and also Jaylen's 2nd year where he was playing a far smaller role earlier in the season.
In the 2 seasons where Jaylen was an undisputed starter his production dropped in the playoffs by 2 to 3 points per 36.

Huh?

Siakam was an animal in the 2019 playoffs. He was a perfect no. 2 option to Kawhi. The 2 of them were both insanely good during that playoff run, resulting in a world championship.

Then in the 2020 playoffs Brown shuts him down over the course of a grueling 7 game series which was a huge factor in the Celtics moving on to the conference finals..
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1074 » by Stan34 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:13 pm

BK_2020 wrote:Year 3 Jaylen, really? You are looking at playoffs where Jaylen was a 4th option taking 9 FGA per game as proof that he is some clutch monster who elevates his game. PG13 has not had a playoffs where he took less than 10 FGA per games since he was 21 years old.
He elevates from RS to playoffs. Year 3 Jaylen was 22.
Im not intersted in your and many storytellers about Jaylen.
2018 he was lucky, 2020 he was lucky to play behind Tatum (and people that play behind steph, LeBron or KD are not great players?), this year he is favored because nobody playes defense etc etc.
Team successes and individual achievements talk about Jaylen much more than your narrative.

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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1075 » by BK_2020 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:35 pm

Hal14 wrote:
BK_2020 wrote:Actually Jaylen has not had "another gear for the playoffs" in the small sample available.
2019-2020, Jaylen's TS% remains almost identical but his per 36 scoring drops from 21.6 to 19.8 despite Hayward being out for most of the playoffs. His TO% and Assist% remain pretty much identical from the regular season to the playoffs. Oh, he shut down Siakam like the entire league did.
2018-2019, a 9 game sample. Jaylen's scoring rate drops by 3 points per 36.
2017-2018, his scoring rate improves but this is the hospital season and also Jaylen's 2nd year where he was playing a far smaller role earlier in the season.
In the 2 seasons where Jaylen was an undisputed starter his production dropped in the playoffs by 2 to 3 points per 36.

Huh?

Siakam was an animal in the 2019 playoffs. He was a perfect no. 2 option to Kawhi. The 2 of them were both insanely good during that playoff run, resulting in a world championship.

Then in the 2020 playoffs Brown shuts him down over the course of a grueling 7 game series which was a huge factor in the Celtics moving on to the conference finals..

Siakam had a great 2019 playoffs and the 1st half of 2019-2020 season. Then the world realized he has exactly one scoring move. Siakam in the bubble scored 16.9 ppg on .507 TS% in the 7 regular season games. What Siakam did against the Celtics was just Siakam being himself.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1076 » by Floody100 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:34 pm

I can always rely on a certain 2 to come on here & make me laugh :lol:
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1077 » by TommyPointGawd » Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:08 pm

Floody100 wrote:I can always rely on a certain 2 to come on here & make me laugh :lol:


It's 3 for me
I apologize for the things I have said in the past. :cry:
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1078 » by Big Joke Line » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:11 am

KingofTheClay wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
KingofTheClay wrote:Khris Middleton Rudy Gay type


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Being compared to Middleton is supposed to be an insult? Also how is he bundled in with Rudy Gay?

Dude is a multiple time all star who has gotten all nba consideration.

Brown is close to his peak.

Highly efficient 3 level scorer that can’t create for others on offense and a downright pathetic team defender.

Brown has no instinct in the areas he is lacking in, he’s peaked.


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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1079 » by BostonCouchGM » Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:04 am

I don't think Jaylen has peaked. However, because he's an athlete playing basketball, instead of a basketball player who is a great athlete, he lacks innate natural feel that really can't be improved. I think you either have it or you don't. His upside has always been limited by his low BBIQ and handle. While his offense has certainly improved, he's no longer one of the better two-way players due to the major step back his defense has taken. Just bringing that back up to the slightly above average level he used to be while maintaining this offense would have him crack the top 30 with ease. Of course, young developing players will improve and maybe overtake him so maybe not. I don't think Brad does him any favors though. While the system does afford Jaylen more wide open looks than most good players get, it doesn't put him in position to utilize his physical gifts enough. Jaylen's could be a great #3. Like Bosh for MIA, Love in CLE, Klay in GS, Allen with the Big Three. But he's not a #2 like Wade, Kyrie, Steph or Pierce were for those teams and the problem is the majority of this fanbase believes he is which makes us "haters" feel the need to check them constantly.
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Re: What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling? 

Post#1080 » by Floody100 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:18 am

BostonCouchGM wrote:I don't think Jaylen has peaked. However, because he's an athlete playing basketball, instead of a basketball player who is a great athlete, he lacks innate natural feel that really can't be improved. I think you either have it or you don't. His upside has always been limited by his low BBIQ and handle. While his offense has certainly improved, he's no longer one of the better two-way players due to the major step back his defense has taken. Just bringing that back up to the slightly above average level he used to be while maintaining this offense would have him crack the top 30 with ease. Of course, young developing players will improve and maybe overtake him so maybe not. I don't think Brad does him any favors though. While the system does afford Jaylen more wide open looks than most good players get, it doesn't put him in position to utilize his physical gifts enough. Jaylen's could be a great #3. Like Bosh for MIA, Love in CLE, Klay in GS, Allen with the Big Three. But he's not a #2 like Wade, Kyrie, Steph or Pierce were for those teams and the problem is the majority of this fanbase believes he is which makes us "haters" feel the need to check them constantly.


He’s already a top 30 player though ?
You make some decent points but a big reason why he gets easier looks is because of his improved handles & footwork. He’s 24, you’ve made assumptions about him for a while now & been proven wrong every time. Stop continually make the same mistake.

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