What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling?

[bucknersrevenge]

Here's a pretty fair, even read on Jaylen

Watch on YouTube

[bucknersrevenge]

After thinking about it, as much as I love Jaylen and am glad that we invested in him, I put the odds at less than 50/50 that he finishes this contract in Celtic green. That deal he signed is just tailor-made for a trade down the line.

[big-shot-ROB]

After thinking about it, as much as I love Jaylen and am glad that we invested in him, I put the odds at less than 50/50 that he finishes this contract in Celtic green. That deal he signed is just tailor-made for a trade down the line.

I am not sure who do you think we are trading him for.

[bucknersrevenge]

After thinking about it, as much as I love Jaylen and am glad that we invested in him, I put the odds at less than 50/50 that he finishes this contract in Celtic green. That deal he signed is just tailor-made for a trade down the line.

I am not sure who do you think we are trading him for.

Maybe Beal. He could be in an interesting position after next year. There could be other players I'm not thinking of right now. But if not him, I'm checking the landscape after the 3rd year of his deal.

[big-shot-ROB]

After thinking about it, as much as I love Jaylen and am glad that we invested in him, I put the odds at less than 50/50 that he finishes this contract in Celtic green. That deal he signed is just tailor-made for a trade down the line.

I am not sure who do you think we are trading him for.

Maybe Beal. He could be in an interesting position after next year. There could be other players I'm not thinking of right now. But if not him, I'm checking the landscape after the 3rd year of his deal.

You don't believe too much in Jaylen then I guess.

[bucknersrevenge]

I am not sure who do you think we are trading him for.

Maybe Beal. He could be in an interesting position after next year. There could be other players I'm not thinking of right now. But if not him, I'm checking the landscape after the 3rd year of his deal.

You don't believe too much in Jaylen then I guess.

Quite the contrary. I like Jaylen a lot. Love even more than that, the man he is becoming off the court and his devotion to his humanitarian interests. I just think his contract is going to become eminently tradable in the future. He can still get better than the player he is now but now I think he's getting closer to maxing out his potential. He can still improve as a shooter and ballhandler a little more. But he's also the only player in the starting 5 with a negative net rating. He makes mistakes the other guys don't make. He's still been awesome, mind you. Some of that is youth, but some of the mental mistakes don't really clean up. And also to be clear, I'm not suggesting that Danny will ship him off to get him outta here. I'm more saying that maybe another team with a disgruntled star that more fits this team might come available and Jaylen is gonna look like a really good asset in that situation.

[klemen4]

What is the situation with Brown new contract and potential salary cap drop? Does it remain the same regardless? For instance compared to Simmons or Murray theirs are based on cap right?

Anyone have answer, Smitty?

[celticfan42487]

Watch on YouTube

[24istheLAW]

Here's a pretty fair, even read on Jaylen

Watch on YouTube

Great vid. Even-handed and thorough.

To me, the main takeaway was that improving as a weakside defender is what Jaylen needs to do to bridge the gap between the idea of Jaylen Brown, and his actual impact metrics.

I tend to think it's unlikely that Jaylen's shooting and playmaking improve much, and that his ceiling would be: translating that defensive potential into production more, drawing more FT per FGA, and being a power two-guard of sorts on a small team that runs.

IMO, the Celtics are at something of a watershed moment with Jayson and Jaylen. Brown's growth curve hasn't been typical. He's followed a more linear progression than most players. But if you wait too long, only to find out he's not Tatum's running mate for the next ten years, he's not going to be tradeable for the piece that is.

The Celtics need to decide if Brown is going to be a top 3 guy on a real team now, not later. While he is still improving at a rate that you can dream on and is cost-controlled for a bunch of years.

[bucknersrevenge]

Here's a pretty fair, even read on Jaylen

Watch on YouTube

Great vid. Even-handed and thorough.

To me, the main takeaway was that improving as a weakside defender is what Jaylen needs to do to bridge the gap between the idea of Jaylen Brown, and his actual impact metrics.

I tend to think it's unlikely that Jaylen's shooting and playmaking improve much, and that his ceiling would be: translating that defensive potential into production more, drawing more FT per FGA, and being a power two-guard of sorts on a small team that runs.

IMO, the Celtics are at something of a watershed moment with Jayson and Jaylen. Brown's growth curve hasn't been typical. He's followed a more linear progression than most players. But if you wait too long, only to find out he's not Tatum's running mate for the next ten years, he's not going to be tradeable for the piece that is.

The Celtics need to decide if Brown is going to be a top 3 guy on a real team now, not later. While he is still improving at a rate that you can dream on and is cost-controlled for a bunch of years.

What's hard for me personally is the emotional component which I admit, gets me into trouble sometimes. I like this kid, as a person. He's intelligent. He's a great team guy. He's a leader. His humanitarian work with the academic communities in Boston is awesome to see from a 23-yr old NBA player. I mean, it's just so atypical. I cannot help but root for this guy. Yet when reputable posters like Captain Caveman call Jaylen "ordinary and limited" It's a comment that I can't completely dismiss out of hand despite how dispassionately it comes out. Of the top 4 guys on our team, Jaylen for all his work (and he's done a lot to get to where he is now), still has the most replaceable skillset. Despite his youth and the investment we have made in him, I still can't help but feeling that even Walker and Hayward are more important complements to what Tatum does in Brad's system. For that reason, and for what his contract is, I do wonder if he survives all 4 years of that extension as a Celtic.

[bucknersrevenge]

Found this interesting tidbit today about potential ramifications for Jaylen's pay

"ESPN’s Bobby Marks points out that a big drop in the cap might encounter another barrier in the short term to the Georgian’s total compensation, as he is not allowed to receive base compensation plus bonuses in excess of 25 % of the overall cap figure."

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/28/nba-boston-celtics-jaylen-brown-contract-bonuses-season-restart/

Can any resident capologists explain what this means? Are they saying he won't be BYC this year? Could that nullify the way BYC players are usually treated in trades (not that I expect he would be traded)?

[hugepatsfan]

Found this interesting tidbit today about potential ramifications for Jaylen's pay

"ESPN’s Bobby Marks points out that a big drop in the cap might encounter another barrier in the short term to the Georgian’s total compensation, as he is not allowed to receive base compensation plus bonuses in excess of 25 % of the overall cap figure."

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/28/nba-boston-celtics-jaylen-brown-contract-bonuses-season-restart/

Can any resident capologists explain what this means? Are they saying he won't be BYC this year? Could that nullify the way BYC players are usually treated in trades (not that I expect he would be traded)?

Players that have been in the league for 0-6 years like Brown have a maximum salary of 25% of the cap. That's the maximum year 1 amount they can sign for in year 1 (including salaries and bonuses). Then they can get annual raises (or decreases) off of that starting point.

The cap was expected to be $109M next year. So a 25% max would start at $26.4M in year 1. If Brown had signed a max extension, his salary wouldn't be locked in. It would be tied to whatever the cap was.

Instead, Brown took below his projected max. He signed for a deal set to start at $22.9M next year. If the cap had a precipitous drop to where that $22.9M was more than 25% of the cap, then Brown's deal would have to be adjusted to whatever 25% of the cap was.

The cap would have to drop to $91.6M for Brown's deal to be affected. I'd think if the cap were going to fall so drastically in one year like that the teams and NBAPA would go for some type of cap smoothing to take the hit over multiple years instead of all in one chunk. But you never know.

[hugepatsfan]

In regards to Brown's ceiling/potential/likely outcome/whatever you call it, I think it is very high. There are certainly further leap(s) for him to make still but he's very, very good even as he is right now.

I think Brown has greatly benefited from some of the pieces around him. Kemba/Tatum are obviously higher usage players and score more. Hayward on paper would seem to be behind Brown on the hierarchy of scoring threats but I don't think that's actually the case. Hayward is more skilled. As such, he's given more playmaking responsibilities and defenses make him more a priority to defend. Even in the games those other players have missed, they insert Smart into the starting unit who also handles more ball handling/playmaking duties than Brown.

The result of all that is favorable matchups for Brown night in and night out. When he's asked to create for himself, he's doing it against the other team's 3rd or 4th best perimeter defender. That helps to hide some of his deficiencies on his handles when creating for himself. And then he still has shown very little ability to make plays for others.

Defensively he is very good on-ball, though still with some foul tendencies. Off ball I think he can stand to improve and learn a good balance between when to help and when not to. Just improving his overall feel in those situations.

I feel very confident in his ability to smooth out the rough edges on defense. I think he can/will go from very good on that end to great or even elite. Offensively, I think there's a bit more projection. Stevens is always going to be a 4-perimeter player heavy system so it's a matter of where Brown fits into the hierarchy of that. Right now he's behind Tatum/Kemba in scoring while also behind Smart/Hayward in ball handling/overall playmaking.

There's kind of a "restart" point with his improvement. Let's say he continues to make strides as a primary scorer and overall playmaker. Eventually he'll hit a point where he moves up the pecking order and defenses start giving more attention to him. So then he'll need to improve even further to keep that efficiency up against better defensive pressure.

I'm not sure how much further his handles/playmaking will improve so I think he might be capped out in terms of his current role on the team. But he can continue to improve within that role. That puts him as probably #3 overall player on a championship team IMO.

[bucknersrevenge]

In regards to Brown's ceiling/potential/likely outcome/whatever you call it, I think it is very high. There are certainly further leap(s) for him to make still but he's very, very good even as he is right now.

I think Brown has greatly benefited from some of the pieces around him. Kemba/Tatum are obviously higher usage players and score more. Hayward on paper would seem to be behind Brown on the hierarchy of scoring threats but I don't think that's actually the case. Hayward is more skilled. As such, he's given more playmaking responsibilities and defenses make him more a priority to defend. Even in the games those other players have missed, they insert Smart into the starting unit who also handles more ball handling/playmaking duties than Brown.

The result of all that is favorable matchups for Brown night in and night out. When he's asked to create for himself, he's doing it against the other team's 3rd or 4th best perimeter defender. That helps to hide some of his deficiencies on his handles when creating for himself. And then he still has shown very little ability to make plays for others.

Defensively he is very good on-ball, though still with some foul tendencies. Off ball I think he can stand to improve and learn a good balance between when to help and when not to. Just improving his overall feel in those situations.

I feel very confident in his ability to smooth out the rough edges on defense. I think he can/will go from very good on that end to great or even elite. Offensively, I think there's a bit more projection. Stevens is always going to be a 4-perimeter player heavy system so it's a matter of where Brown fits into the hierarchy of that. Right now he's behind Tatum/Kemba in scoring while also behind Smart/Hayward in ball handling/overall playmaking.

There's kind of a "restart" point with his improvement. Let's say he continues to make strides as a primary scorer and overall playmaker. Eventually he'll hit a point where he moves up the pecking order and defenses start giving more attention to him. So then he'll need to improve even further to keep that efficiency up against better defensive pressure.

I'm not sure how much further his handles/playmaking will improve so I think he might be capped out in terms of his current role on the team. But he can continue to improve within that role. That puts him as probably #3 overall player on a championship team IMO.

This is a pretty awesome assessment. There's literally nothing I can add to it.

[bucknersrevenge]

I know what I've said about his ceiling and his prospects for playing out his contract in Boston but I no longer care. As good a player as he is, he far exceeds that as a young man. It is categorically IMPOSSIBLE for me to root against this kid.

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[K For Three]

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[Froob]

What’s his ceiling? President.

[La Flame]

yall hatin his game gonna evolve even more

[ConstableGeneva]

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[Fencer reregistered]

What’s his ceiling? President.

I'll go with senator as being more realistic. He doesn't quite have the extreme personal charisma that some presidents have (e.g. Obama, Clinton, Reagan, JFK ...), and he'll also be light on experience.