What is Jaylen Brown's ceiling?

[ddb]

Jaylen to me can be the 2nd best player on a Championship team (currently he's the 3rd best player on the team). I think he's a 4-6x All-Star. I really don't care what his stats are so long as he continues to help this team win. And he seems like the type of guy who puts winning first anyway. Top 20-25 guy. He may peak in the 15-17 range overall for a season or two. He's the Klay to Tatum's Curry if that makes any sense.

[Bleeding Green]

Murray is in Denver. We have Jaylen. That's it. Time to move on.

The best way to move on is to learn from mistakes. The fact that Danny drafted another athletic RSCI warrior with poor shooting stats and weak D stats tells me that he repeats his mistakes.

Would be a real shame to end up with a top-3 RSCI guy every year that turns out like Brown.

[Cuban Pete]

So he has plateaued at 23. Despite improving every year to date and his work ethic?

A player like Brown could see his shooting numbers regress next season. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it's possible. That said, I will give Jaylen props for his shot selection. It's overcome his shooting weaknesses. It also explains why Jaylen has better career TS% and eFG% than Murray. Murray's weakness is his high percentage of long twos. He takes way too many of them and it's trending upward. Denver is a two-man team and surrounding Murray with another scorer or two may curb that trend (DeRozan in FA).

Murray is a more consistent scorer and better creator than Brown. His 40 point game 7 vs LAC was a window into his higher ceiling.

[bucknersrevenge]

Murray is in Denver. We have Jaylen. That's it. Time to move on.

The best way to move on is to learn from mistakes. The fact that Danny drafted another athletic RSCI warrior with poor shooting stats and weak D stats tells me that he repeats his mistakes.

And what exactly does that have to do with Jaylen's ceiling oh Grand Hijacker?

[Cuban Pete]

Murray is in Denver. We have Jaylen. That's it. Time to move on.

The best way to move on is to learn from mistakes. The fact that Danny drafted another athletic RSCI warrior with poor shooting stats and weak D stats tells me that he repeats his mistakes.

Would be a real shame to end up with a top-3 RSCI guy every year that turns out like Brown.

Sometimes you play a hunch and you win. That's why casinos stay in business. That said, Brown didn't become a great offensive player (110 Ortg) until his 4th season. Tatum was great from the beginning (111 his rookie year). Then there's Romeo (#5) and James Young (#9) who were disasters. You can go by an algorithm or play a hunch (gamble). Like most gamblers you'll lose more often than not. You have a three year window to develop players. After that you either have to extend them, trade them, or risk losing then in FA the following summer. The Cs extended Brown before his career year of 2019-20. Murray was producing 112 and 110 seasons in years 2 and 3. Extending him was a no-brainer. Brown was another gamble. Murray's been better and more consistent.

The #1 priority this offseason is to extend Tatum. Failure is not an option.

[keevsnick1]

So he has plateaued at 23. Despite improving every year to date and his work ethic?

A player like Brown could see his shooting numbers regress next season. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it's possible. That said, I will give Jaylen props for his shot selection. It's overcome his shooting weaknesses. It also explains why Jaylen has better career TS% and eFG% than Murray. Murray's weakness is his high percentage of long twos. He takes way too many of them and it's trending upward. Denver is a two-man team and surrounding Murray with another scorer or two may curb that trend (DeRozan in FA).

Murray is a more consistent scorer and better creator than Brown. His 40 point game 7 vs LAC was a window into his higher ceiling.

The dude has shot 39% or better from 3 two of his four seasons. Saying he shooting is a weakness is at this point more a problem of peoples inability to move off their priors than it is an actual problem with Jaylen. I mean he's not like jj Redick coming off from screens and firing on the move or Steph launching from 30 feet but hes a reliable above average shooter at this point.

[bucknersrevenge]

So he has plateaued at 23. Despite improving every year to date and his work ethic?

A player like Brown could see his shooting numbers regress next season. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it's possible. That said, I will give Jaylen props for his shot selection. It's overcome his shooting weaknesses. It also explains why Jaylen has better career TS% and eFG% than Murray. Murray's weakness is his high percentage of long twos. He takes way too many of them and it's trending upward. Denver is a two-man team and surrounding Murray with another scorer or two may curb that trend (DeRozan in FA).

Murray is a more consistent scorer and better creator than Brown. His 40 point game 7 vs LAC was a window into his higher ceiling.

The dude has shot 39% or better from 3 two of his four seasons. Saying he shooting is a weakness is at this point more a problem of peoples inability to move off their priors than it is an actual problem with Jaylen. I mean he's not like jj Redick coming off from screens and firing on the move or Steph launching from 30 feet but hes a reliable above average shooter at this point.

You can get on Jaylen for a lot but you can't call him a bad shooter, or even a mediocre shooter. He is an above average shooter who I still think is going to get better and more comfortable pulling up off the dribble. Jaylen's ceiling is more about bball iq than anything else.

[Feed Your Head]

I have a really hard time projecting Jaylen lol.

Would be I shocked if he became a top 15-20 ? Not at all, but I think top 30 is more likely. Either way he will be an outstanding player.

[BRUNiNHO91]

25 year old Jaylen Brown should scare people to death. This was an extremely raw basketball player coming in.. No shot, no handles.. Just an insane drive to be better and crazy physical skills. Dude now is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA and averages 20ppg and 6rpg on top. Two more years to work on that 3pt shot, fine tune his handles and oh my gawd.

Kawhi lite.

[TommyPointGawd]

Jaylen to me can be the 2nd best player on a Championship team (currently he's the 3rd best player on the team). I think he's a 4-6x All-Star. I really don't care what his stats are so long as he continues to help this team win. And he seems like the type of guy who puts winning first anyway. Top 20-25 guy. He may peak in the 15-17 range overall for a season or two. He's the Klay to Tatum's Curry if that makes any sense.

Even if you don't consider him "better" than Kemba. I think it's fair to say he is the second most important player on the team. He needs to deliver for us to get the the finals.

[Fencer reregistered]

Jaylen to me can be the 2nd best player on a Championship team (currently he's the 3rd best player on the team). I think he's a 4-6x All-Star. I really don't care what his stats are so long as he continues to help this team win. And he seems like the type of guy who puts winning first anyway. Top 20-25 guy. He may peak in the 15-17 range overall for a season or two. He's the Klay to Tatum's Curry if that makes any sense.

Even if you don't consider him "better" than Kemba. I think it's fair to say he is the second most important player on the team. He needs to deliver for us to get the the finals.

That's situational. In certain cases, your second-best scorer is automatically your second-most important player.

[Feed Your Head]

I think you can make an argument that two or three guys are their second most important player right now.

Kemba with his scoring. Jaylen with his shooting, going to the rim, and defense. Even Smart with his defense+playmaking responsibilities.

[Bleeding Green]

The best way to move on is to learn from mistakes. The fact that Danny drafted another athletic RSCI warrior with poor shooting stats and weak D stats tells me that he repeats his mistakes.

Would be a real shame to end up with a top-3 RSCI guy every year that turns out like Brown.

Sometimes you play a hunch and you win. That's why casinos stay in business. That said, Brown didn't become a great offensive player (110 Ortg) until his 4th season. Tatum was great from the beginning (111 his rookie year). Then there's Romeo (#5) and James Young (#9) who were disasters. You can go by an algorithm or play a hunch (gamble). Like most gamblers you'll lose more often than not. You have a three year window to develop players. After that you either have to extend them, trade them, or risk losing then in FA the following summer. The Cs extended Brown before his career year of 2019-20. Murray was producing 112 and 110 seasons in years 2 and 3. Extending him was a no-brainer. Brown was another gamble. Murray's been better and more consistent.

The #1 priority this offseason is to extend Tatum. Failure is not an option.

If you're already chalking Romeo Langford as a disaster, I dunno what to tell you. If you can do that, you've probably called almost everyone in this last draft as a failure. If you have an infallible algorithm, I'm sure a lot of NBA GMs would love to see it.

Murray is better, that's great. If the mark of a successful draft pick be that no single player drafted after him be better, then you're just going to lose like 99% of the time.

[Patsfan1081]

The best way to move on is to learn from mistakes. The fact that Danny drafted another athletic RSCI warrior with poor shooting stats and weak D stats tells me that he repeats his mistakes.

Would be a real shame to end up with a top-3 RSCI guy every year that turns out like Brown.

Sometimes you play a hunch and you win. That's why casinos stay in business. That said, Brown didn't become a great offensive player (110 Ortg) until his 4th season. Tatum was great from the beginning (111 his rookie year). Then there's Romeo (#5) and James Young (#9) who were disasters. You can go by an algorithm or play a hunch (gamble). Like most gamblers you'll lose more often than not. You have a three year window to develop players. After that you either have to extend them, trade them, or risk losing then in FA the following summer. The Cs extended Brown before his career year of 2019-20. Murray was producing 112 and 110 seasons in years 2 and 3. Extending him was a no-brainer. Brown was another gamble. Murray's been better and more consistent.



The #1 priority this offseason is to extend Tatum. Failure is not an option.

How can you say Murray’s been more consistent when he’s shot below the league average every year he’s been in the league? It’s like people can’t remember anything before the bubble. Go look at hies efficiency in Dec and Jan, it was pretty poor. Murray has always been streaky. And you’re way off with you’re “year window to develope players”,it’s odd that you put so much stock in Murray’s playoff run yet don’t even mention Brown’s play in previous post season’s.

[snowman]

So, Does Brown get his 4 mil bonus this year ? We made it to the 2nd round, He's played in 57 games during the season and 15 post season, for 72 total games including playoffs, and the team has won 48 games in the reg season, and then 9 in the post season. Hoopshype has his bonus marks at 49+ team wins and 65+ played in games, and making it to the 2nd round, but does this include playoffs ? Just wondering, and do bonuses count against the cap ? I would think they do, but I don't know.

[ddb]

Jaylen to me can be the 2nd best player on a Championship team (currently he's the 3rd best player on the team). I think he's a 4-6x All-Star. I really don't care what his stats are so long as he continues to help this team win. And he seems like the type of guy who puts winning first anyway. Top 20-25 guy. He may peak in the 15-17 range overall for a season or two. He's the Klay to Tatum's Curry if that makes any sense.

Even if you don't consider him "better" than Kemba. I think it's fair to say he is the second most important player on the team. He needs to deliver for us to get the the finals.

That's situational. In certain cases, your second-best scorer is automatically your second-most important player.

Jaylen isn't good at creating his own shot. He's the teams 2nd best defender. he can score with help. where he needs to improve is creating his own shot, and playmaking. two areas holding him back from becoming an absolute stud.

[keevsnick1]

So, Does Brown get his 4 mil bonus this year ? We made it to the 2nd round, He's played in 57 games during the season and 15 post season, for 72 total games including playoffs, and the team has won 48 games in the reg season, and then 9 in the post season. Hoopshype has his bonus marks at 49+ team wins and 65+ played in games, and making it to the 2nd round, but does this include playoffs ? Just wondering, and do bonuses count against the cap ? I would think they do, but I don't know.

Unless I'm wrong those bonus's don't come into effect until next season, when his new contract actually starts. In other words he'd have to hit those bench marks next season to get the bonus for that season.

However I believe those bonus will be considered "likely bonuses" because he achieved those numbers the season before they take effect, that means his salary next season will count for cap purposes as if he'll hit the bonuses.

[keevsnick1]

I have a really hard time projecting Jaylen lol.

Would be I shocked if he became a top 15-20 ? Not at all, but I think top 30 is more likely. Either way he will be an outstanding player.

24 people make the all star teams, and Jaylen was getting serious buzz with several high profile media members having him on their team this year. To me that makes him pretty much already a top 30ish player. To me his upside is a top 15 player, all NBA level guy. As much as I like him I don't see him being an MVP level guy, most of those guys are obvious by the time they are in their 4th year, but second tier star status in the 10-20 best player range at his peak seems possible to me.

[Feed Your Head]

I have a really hard time projecting Jaylen lol.

Would be I shocked if he became a top 15-20 ? Not at all, but I think top 30 is more likely. Either way he will be an outstanding player.

24 people make the all star teams, and Jaylen was getting serious buzz with several high profile media members having him on their team this year. To me that makes him pretty much already a top 30ish player. To me his upside is a top 15 player, all NBA level guy. As much as I like him I don't see him being an MVP level guy, most of those guys are obvious by the time they are in their 4th year, but second tier star status in the 10-20 best player range at his peak seems possible to me.

A few media members did pick him, but he was 11th and 13th amongst eastern conference guards in the players and media members vote.

That said, I believe they sold him pretty short, as do advanced stats, they hate him for some odd reason that I can’t figure out. I’d have him as a top 40ish player right now personally, but there’s not a huge difference between top 30 and top 45 IMO. But like I said, either way we’re looking at a very good player.

[keevsnick1]

I have a really hard time projecting Jaylen lol.

Would be I shocked if he became a top 15-20 ? Not at all, but I think top 30 is more likely. Either way he will be an outstanding player.

24 people make the all star teams, and Jaylen was getting serious buzz with several high profile media members having him on their team this year. To me that makes him pretty much already a top 30ish player. To me his upside is a top 15 player, all NBA level guy. As much as I like him I don't see him being an MVP level guy, most of those guys are obvious by the time they are in their 4th year, but second tier star status in the 10-20 best player range at his peak seems possible to me.

A few media members did pick him, but he was 11th and 13th amongst eastern conference guards in the players and media members vote.

That said, I believe they sold him pretty short, as do advanced stats, they hate him for some odd reason that I can’t figure out. I’d have him as a top 40ish player right now personally, but there’s not a huge difference between top 30 and top 45 IMO. But like I said, either way we’re looking at a very good player.

Ya I suppose thats a fair point, the like 25-50 player in the nba are separated by a lot less than people think, enough that having an outlier season can move somebody around significantly within that bubble.

Buts thats also kind of my point, if you dont think there's much difference between 30 and 45, and you think Jaylen is currently in that tier, then its weird to me to say you see his ceiling as a top 30ish player because that means you believe he's already pretty close to his ceiling. But maybe we just define ceiling differently.

Frankly what matters more to me is he's the perfect player for where the NBA is going. While some guys lose value in the playoffs because they can't defend, or arent great shooters, or are one dimensional brown arguably actually gains value because he can guard almost anybody, can shoot, but can also do stuff off the dribble. Really the passing will determine whether he takes it to the next level. Him and Tatum are a perfect paring, because you can build the team around them in an almost infinite number of ways.