bobbutts wrote:Watching NY and MA and WA and a few others early we saw early mistakes that cost lives but eventually they took actions that got the outbreak mostly under control. Watching Texas, Arizona, and Florida recently we saw what happens when we ignore guidance and attempt to re-open too hastily. The most important thing is learning the lessons and improving going forward.
NYC is probably close to herd immunity IMO. Either early antibody testing was inaccurate, or 35% of the population is naturally immune in some capacity and/or the herd immunity threshold is lower than presumed. Or something, but the trends speak for themselves.
WA took quick action early, MA did okay. San Fran called for a state of emergency in February and encouraged its citizens to take the situation seriously even before they had any confirmed cases, they shut their train/subway service down by the end of March. They are the textbook example IMO.
At least part of what we are seeing now is that without permanent lockdowns and/or to a other permanent measures in place, every dense enough area is bound to be stung in time. Texas/AZ/Florida yeah, but parts of Cali are spiking too, and Cali has been rather progressive. In these parts of Cali, early actions, a prolonged lockdown, and adherence to guidelines did little but to delay the inevitable.
Anyways, I'm in AZ, and really the problem is not that we reopened too soon, in hindsight I might argue that a stricter, shorter, and more productive lockdown would have been more effective. The problem is just about everything reopened (bars and clubs were considered restaurants), CDC/social distancing guidelines were never enforced, testing/lab capacity was not really as advertised (waiting 7+ days for results undermines isolation strategies), and businesses and citizens haven't taken much in their own hands (understatement, and we also had **** from Cali visit because they were sick of being on lockdown). The protests began at the worst possible time as cases and hospitalizations were already peaking (most wore/wear masks, not clear if they were responsible for much spread at all but they were at least more fuel to the fire and helped make a joke of social distancing), and then there was that Trump rally the other day...