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Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1041 » by sam_I_am » Thu Jul 2, 2020 7:33 pm

claycarver wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:On January 30th there were 7800 cases of Covid-19 worldwide and 170 deaths. The next day the president sort of banned travel from China a move he claims saved millions of lives. Today, 10 million cases and 500k deaths later, in Florida alone they have reported 10,000 cases and 63 deaths. One day.....10,000 new cases! The White House says it’s reassuring because it’s younger people that are testing positive. The idea that many Americans do not think this is a monumental catastrophe is mind boggling. Political agendas have really rotted people’s brains.

As a reminder, in Massachusetts where first wave is over, 8000 people died. 5000 were nursing home patients of which half were never hospitalized. 11,000 people were hospitalized of which 8000 survived. That means that out of 100k cases, more than 10% got hospitalized. Death is clearly worse, but anyone living in Texas, Arizona and Florida who thinks thousands young people a day needing several weeks of hospitalization and having their bodies brutalized by this virus is reassuring is delusional. And very soon it will terrorize the nursing homes again.


Where have you seen that thousands of young people each day are being hospitalized? I'm not saying that's untrue, but I haven't seen stats like that. I think Florida is closer to 175-200 a day.


10% of cases will get hospitalized but there is a lag time before it happens. Didn’t mean to say thousands have already been hospitalized so sorry. My point is that just because only 0.5-2% will die, doesn’t make weeks in the hospital and the utilization of resources that requires less tragic. It is still possible that the ability to test so many more people will dilute the 10% figure but based on the hospital surges being reported I don’t think so.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1042 » by threrf23 » Thu Jul 2, 2020 7:43 pm

sam_I_am wrote:

As a reminder, in Massachusetts where first wave is over, 8000 people died. 5000 were nursing home patients of which half were never hospitalized. 11,000 people were hospitalized of which 8000 survived. That means that out of 100k cases, more than 10% got hospitalized. Death is clearly worse, but anyone living in Texas, Arizona and Florida who thinks thousands young people a day needing several weeks of hospitalization and having their bodies brutalized by this virus is reassuring is delusional. And very soon it will terrorize the nursing homes again.


Many of Mass' cases were diagnosed in March and April when many asymptomatic carriers couldn't be tested, and symptomatic individuals couldn't always get tested. There were a lot more than 100k cases.

But yes, using AZ as an example where the majority of cases have happened after testing capacity increased (and it hasn't increased enough as some are reporting a 2 week wait for test results lately), 22% of nearly 5,000 hospitalized patients right now are in the 20-40 age group, 3% of cases amongst the 22-44 age group have been hospitalized versus 6% of all cases.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1043 » by sam_I_am » Thu Jul 2, 2020 7:45 pm

jmr07019 wrote:This is interesting

Using data from 315 American cities with at least 100,000 people, covering the period mid-May to mid-June, the researchers compared the experience of the 281 cities where protests erupted with the 34 where they did not. One third of protesting cities saw large-scale gatherings with 1,000 or more attendees, making those particular regions more susceptible to another outbreak. Nonetheless, they found that the protests had no significant effect one way or the other on the incidence of covid-19.

They also found one possible—and surprising—reason for this. Protests were actually associated with an increase in social-distancing behaviour; for example, residents overall spent an additional 0.18 hours, or 11 minutes, per day at home (see chart). In other words, any time that residents spent protesting in the streets was more than offset by time other people spent baking bread and watching Netflix.


Either the bolded is true or outside + masks = low transmission rate almost regardless of social distance. Or a combination of the two.
I find it odd that in the middle of a pandemic we have gatherings like this and there is almost zero conversation about the effect of these gatherings on the pandemic. Perhaps you feel that racial injustice is more important than the pandemic. That's a legitimate point of view and I won't argue but to say that these gatherings don't cause the virus to spread is very surprising to me. Maybe the outside + masks = low transmission formula is rather powerful. We should at least be talking about this. Here are photos of New York.

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https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/thousands-protest-death-of-george-floyd-across-nyc

Photos of Chicago

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https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-george-floyd-chicago-protests-20200601-mrgv3rsz3fgztlu5lyrsyuolr4-story.html


Boston rally was June 3. 1 month later and no surge. Tulsa rally for Trump - indoors and few masks - and Herman Caine who was there gets hospitalized 10 days later which is text book. Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me with people yelling at both types of rallies. Either way, politicizing the public health aspect of pandemic makes no sense.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1044 » by claycarver » Thu Jul 2, 2020 8:37 pm

You guys notice the stats in California by race? The hispanic population is getting clobbered:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race-Ethnicity.aspx

I haven't looked yet, but I'd bet all these southern stats are having similar problems protecting the hispanic community. Im guessing BLM rally's and open beaches aren't the biggest driver here.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1045 » by exculpatory » Fri Jul 3, 2020 2:44 pm

Warning

Be very very wary of new study published by Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit where HQ without Azithromycin seemed to benefit COVID patients when administered ‘early’ in the disease:
1. Observational studies are preliminary & do not hold a candle to prospective randomized studies.
2. A large number of sick inpatients were excluded from the analysis.
3. Many more HQ patients were treated with steroids c/w non-HQ patients - and decadron by itself has demonstrated efficacy. A major confounder.

Some non-medical dipshits/morons & politicians are going to inappropriately start jizzing about this report.

I await the results of randomized prospective trials.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1046 » by bobbutts » Fri Jul 3, 2020 2:50 pm

claycarver wrote:You guys notice the stats in California by race? The hispanic population is getting clobbered:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race-Ethnicity.aspx

I haven't looked yet, but I'd bet all these southern stats are having similar problems protecting the hispanic community. Im guessing BLM rally's and open beaches aren't the biggest driver here.

As a group Hispanics are more likely to be living in multi-generational homes where the virus can spread between family members and working "essential" jobs that risk exposure.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1047 » by claycarver » Fri Jul 3, 2020 5:17 pm

bobbutts wrote:
claycarver wrote:You guys notice the stats in California by race? The hispanic population is getting clobbered:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race-Ethnicity.aspx

I haven't looked yet, but I'd bet all these southern stats are having similar problems protecting the hispanic community. Im guessing BLM rally's and open beaches aren't the biggest driver here.

As a group Hispanics are more likely to be living in multi-generational homes where the virus can spread between family members and working "essential" jobs that risk exposure.
Image


I wonder how the Asian community is impacted by this.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1048 » by ConstableGeneva » Fri Jul 3, 2020 9:09 pm

claycarver wrote:
bobbutts wrote:
claycarver wrote:You guys notice the stats in California by race? The hispanic population is getting clobbered:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race-Ethnicity.aspx

I haven't looked yet, but I'd bet all these southern stats are having similar problems protecting the hispanic community. Im guessing BLM rally's and open beaches aren't the biggest driver here.

As a group Hispanics are more likely to be living in multi-generational homes where the virus can spread between family members and working "essential" jobs that risk exposure.
Image


I wonder how the Asian community is impacted by this.

In terms of physical distancing and isolation at home, it could be a factor in the US, where Asian children don't leave the nest early or the children choose to have their parents live with them instead of in nursing homes or in a separate residence.

Considering most Far East Asian countries have done really well slowing down or eradicating the virus, I don't think it's that big of a factor IF the government had a sound test-trace-isolate policy in place. Only notable exceptions have been the Philippines and Indonesia. Singapore shouldn't count since their death rate is incredibly low and their cases are mostly from migrant dormitory outbreaks.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1049 » by ConstableGeneva » Fri Jul 3, 2020 9:14 pm

Good charts here. Read the original thread too.

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Cases, Positive Rates, Hospitalizations are on the rise in the South, Southwest, and West regions. Death rate is holding steady for now in South and West. Slightly rising in Southwest.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1050 » by ConstableGeneva » Fri Jul 3, 2020 9:55 pm

I hope he's at least wearing the mask to cover his privates.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1051 » by shackles10 » Fri Jul 3, 2020 11:53 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:I hope he's at least wearing the mask to cover his privates.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1052 » by claycarver » Fri Jul 3, 2020 11:55 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:Good charts here. Read the original thread too.

Read on Twitter


Cases, Positive Rates, Hospitalizations are on the rise in the South, Southwest, and West regions. Death rate is holding steady for now in South and West. Slightly rising in Southwest.


When I click the link I see a different image than the one in your post. I'm interested in seeing it if you have it.

Death rate holding steady matters a lot. Given the massive increase in cases, that very good. I wish there was better data on hospitalization capacity. If a state is starting from a ton of capacity and few hospitalizations, an increase isn't significant. But if they're trending toward overextending capacity, it's concerning. I've read that the average stay in the hospital has decreased significantly, which should help.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1053 » by ConstableGeneva » Sat Jul 4, 2020 12:01 am

claycarver wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:Good charts here. Read the original thread too.

Read on Twitter


Cases, Positive Rates, Hospitalizations are on the rise in the South, Southwest, and West regions. Death rate is holding steady for now in South and West. Slightly rising in Southwest.


When I click the link I see a different image than the one in your post. I'm interested in seeing it if you have it.

Death rate holding steady matters a lot. Given the massive increase in cases, that very good. I wish there was better data on hospitalization capacity. If a state is starting from a ton of capacity and few hospitalizations, an increase isn't significant. But if they're trending toward overextending capacity, it's concerning. I've read that the average stay in the hospital has decreased significantly, which should help.

Positive Rate:

Image

Hospitalization:

Image

Death Rate:

Image

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/Regions-T_P
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1054 » by claycarver » Sat Jul 4, 2020 12:29 am

It looks like the typical hospital rate in the US has been steady at about 67% for the last several years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185904/hospital-occupancy-rate-in-the-us-since-2001/

Based on this information from the CDC, almost all states are at or below the historical occupancy average:

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html

And outside of Arizona, no state has more than 19% of its hospital beds occupied by covid patients.

I read that 9 counties in the US account for 1/3 of all new cases, so I'd be surprised if those particular counties aren't moving closer to capacity. But as far as I can tell, hospitalization rate isn't an issue so far.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1055 » by Andrew McCeltic » Sat Jul 4, 2020 11:14 pm

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Can I be the ahole who asks for the tl;dr? Was aware of the Tulsa stuff.. but had wavered a little out of the loop in the week or two before 6/11/20, when I was hospitalized for a dozen days for a fireworks of physical and mental health stuff that would make Dr. Rob Smith blush ... South Korea's having a second wave? What's going on? (When are we drafting, when's the lotto?)


Wow 16 years, tens of thousands of posts and I can't even get a "**** you" back
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1056 » by ConstableGeneva » Sat Jul 4, 2020 11:33 pm

Andrew McCeltic wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:Can I be the ahole who asks for the tl;dr? Was aware of the Tulsa stuff.. but had wavered a little out of the loop in the week or two before 6/11/20, when I was hospitalized for a dozen days for a fireworks of physical and mental health stuff that would make Dr. Rob Smith blush ... South Korea's having a second wave? What's going on? (When are we drafting, when's the lotto?)


Wow 16 years, tens of thousands of posts and I can't even get a "**** you" back

**** you, Andrew. Hope you've fully recovered. We're the aholes. Sorry about that.

South Korea has a mini second wave. Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, and a few others seemed to have either slowed down or stopped the virus on its tracks thanks to competent leadership, sound implementation of policies, and citizens who give a **** about other people.

The NBA is attempting a re-start. The calendar's buried somewhere in the Around the NBA thread or Regular Season Thread. There will be 88 games to determine seeding starting on July 30 I think then playoffs begin mid-August. Finals should be early October if all goes as planned.

Several players have contracted the virus prior to the teams heading to the Orlando bubble. No one supposedly enters the bubble until their tests come clean twice or something like that.

"Happy" Fourth of July, Andrew! 2020 is still ****.

EDIT: NBA key dates - https://www.nba.com/key-dates

Draft lottery is August 25. Draft is October 16.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1057 » by Andrew McCeltic » Sun Jul 5, 2020 12:34 am

ConstableGeneva wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:Can I be the ahole who asks for the tl;dr? Was aware of the Tulsa stuff.. but had wavered a little out of the loop in the week or two before 6/11/20, when I was hospitalized for a dozen days for a fireworks of physical and mental health stuff that would make Dr. Rob Smith blush ... South Korea's having a second wave? What's going on? (When are we drafting, when's the lotto?)


Wow 16 years, tens of thousands of posts and I can't even get a "**** you" back

**** you, Andrew. Hope you've fully recovered. We're the aholes. Sorry about that.

South Korea has a mini second wave. Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, and a few others seemed to have either slowed down or stopped the virus on its tracks thanks to competent leadership, sound implementation of policies, and citizens who give a **** about other people.

The NBA is attempting a re-start. The calendar's buried somewhere in the Around the NBA thread or Regular Season Thread. There will be 88 games to determine seeding starting on July 30 I think then playoffs begin mid-August. Finals should be early October if all goes as planned.

Several players have contracted the virus prior to the teams heading to the Orlando bubble. No one supposedly enters the bubble until their tests come clean twice or something like that.

"Happy" Fourth of July, Andrew! 2020 is still ****.

EDIT: NBA key dates - https://www.nba.com/key-dates

Draft lottery is August 25. Draft is October 16.


Thanks dude, good teamwork.. looks like Smitty's Orlando idea ended up getting traction..

I would like [quote="exculpatory"] to write me a doctor's note about how I'm the healthiest bastard he's ever seen, in case I run for president

I'm fine now, just being dramatic for a change
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1058 » by Bad-Thoma » Sun Jul 5, 2020 2:16 am

Andrew McCeltic wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:Can I be the ahole who asks for the tl;dr? Was aware of the Tulsa stuff.. but had wavered a little out of the loop in the week or two before 6/11/20, when I was hospitalized for a dozen days for a fireworks of physical and mental health stuff that would make Dr. Rob Smith blush ... South Korea's having a second wave? What's going on? (When are we drafting, when's the lotto?)


Wow 16 years, tens of thousands of posts and I can't even get a "**** you" back


**** you buddy! Glad you are doing better.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1059 » by ConstableGeneva » Sun Jul 5, 2020 11:11 pm

It was DIRE for much more than a New York minute. Glad the state recovered. Let's hope they keep this up (or in this case, down).
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1060 » by SuperDeluxe » Tue Jul 7, 2020 2:34 am

Another scary article, this time from The Guardian: "Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again"

Throughout the pandemic, a notion has persevered that people who have “mild” cases of Covid-19 and do not require an ICU stay or the use of a ventilator are spared from serious health repercussions. Just last week, Mike Pence, the US vice-president, claimed it’s “a good thing” that nearly half of the new Covid-19 cases surging in 16 states are young Americans, who are at less risk of becoming severely ill than their older counterparts. This kind of rhetoric would lead you to believe that the ordeal of “mildly infected” patients ends within two weeks of becoming ill, at which point they recover and everything goes back to normal.

While that may be the case for some people who get Covid-19, emerging medical research as well as anecdotal evidence from recovery support groups suggest that many survivors of “mild” Covid-19 are not so lucky. They experience lasting side-effects, and doctors are still trying to understand the ramifications.

Some of these side effects can be fatal. According to Dr Christopher Kellner, a professor of neurosurgery at Mount Sinai hospital in New York, “mild” cases of Covid-19 in which the patient was not hospitalized for the virus have been linked to blood clotting and severe strokes in people as young as 30. In May, Kellner told Healthline that Mount Sinai had implemented a plan to give anticoagulant drugs to people with Covid-19 to prevent the strokes they were seeing in “younger patients with no or mild symptoms”.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who?

So yeah, this NBA bubble sounds like a worse idea each day that goes by. Time to stop buying the "these players are young and in shape" rhetoric, it doesn't hold water anymore.

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