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Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1461 » by ddb » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:10 pm

Bad-Thoma wrote:
ddb wrote:
I remember being in history class and feeling blown away at how it took so long for the Nazi's to be stopped. I remember thinking, how come the jews gave up their guns, and their gold, and their freedoms?? why didn't they fight back? Now I get why. We live in a country of sheep. a world of sheep really.
like I said, you won't find me in the boxcar line. not happening.



You're pretty well spoken for a complete moron.


Thanks.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1462 » by canman1971 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:12 pm

Lets stop with the insults please and thank you.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1463 » by Parliament10 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:31 pm

ddb wrote:
LarryBirdsFingr wrote:
Captain_Caveman wrote:
As if those people are worthless or deserved to die somehow? Maybe this thread needs to die, just saying.


This thread is why our country is ****. Too many whack jobs not listening to science.


I think the actual problem is far too many people don't know God anymore, and aren't opening their Bible. I'm not saying you...just in general.

You've said enough on here.
Get back on Track.

Stick to COVID-19 Discussion.


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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1464 » by CeltsfanSinceBirth » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:31 pm

This is me reading some of the posts in here.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1465 » by Parliament10 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:34 pm

theman wrote:
ddb wrote:
well as a history teacher you should be pretty ticked off that the latest stimulus bill is sending 700,000,000 to Sudan, 25 million for genders studies in Pakistan, etc, etc and hard working American citizens like yourself who educate our children will see $600.


Maybe that is why it took so long to pass. That, and they didn't want to give Trump a win. He should veto it, and say take all that crap out. But, he won't; he is not that anti-swamp.

But you have to ask:
1) Who lobbied for that?
2) Who said "okay I will request that"?
3) What are the other members of Congress getting in return that they agreed with it.

Do NOT say another word about Politics.
None.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1466 » by Parliament10 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:38 pm

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Stick to the Subject at Hand, or risk being Banned.
This Thread has gone AWOL.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1467 » by Curmudgeon » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:50 pm

Well its WOL, but not AWOL.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1468 » by Slax » Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:02 pm

My wife got her first injection of the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. Her arm hurts like hell and she's a bit tired, but otherwise she's doing well, and obviously these are pretty mild symptoms compared to the protection she will get from it. Looking forward to when it's available to everyone!
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1469 » by watsonthedragon » Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Religion, politics, and conspiracy theories. This thread has everything!
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1470 » by ddb » Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:40 pm

watsonthedragon wrote:Religion, politics, and conspiracy theories. This thread has everything!


all great topics at the dinner table on Christmas with Uncle Jack and Auntie Mil haha
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1471 » by theman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:56 pm

Captain_Caveman wrote:I'll just leave this here:

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So how do you justify an NBA season?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1472 » by Captain_Caveman » Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:01 pm

theman wrote:
Captain_Caveman wrote:I'll just leave this here:

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So how do you justify an NBA season?


I didn't.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1473 » by Shuttlesworth99 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:07 pm

An interesting thing being reported down here in Australia is that the new vaccines may not stop you getting infected and passing it on to others. It will likely stop you getting the most extreme symptoms.

So we are being urged to still follow social distancing and mask protocols and to be fair it has been fairly successful in limiting the spread. We of course are on a giant island which helps!
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1474 » by exculpatory » Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:37 pm

Captain_Caveman wrote:Thoughts from a smart friend on the vaccine aspect of stuff:

(1) we need to get some terms defined:
protective or clinical immunity --> this is preventing you from getting sick ... this is where the vaccines showed 95% efficacy (the trial endpoint was infection + symptoms ... so if you had infection but no symptoms, you were still counted in the win column) ... the question of could you get infection but no symptoms wasn't directly studied, though Moderna study had very suggestive data (more on that in a second) (2) sterilizing immunity --> this is preventing you from getting infected at all ... as mentioned, this was not directly studied ... BUT there is AMPLE evidence that the vaccines WILL prevent infections and transmissions to at least a moderate degree: - Moderna did a smart thing and they swabbed everybody at the time they administered the 2nd vaccine and there were ~60% fewer asymptomatic infections in vaccinated individuals (3% vs 1% or something in that ballpark)... and that is after the first dose, very likely even better after 2nd dose - AZ/Ox studied asymptomatic infections in one of their studies and found about ~65% sterilizing immunity - Animal studies showed some degree (though not 100%) of sterilizing immunity ... and SIGNIFICANTLY reduced viral shedding which would imply dramatically reduced transmissibility (more on that below) - Thus, data that there will be significant sterilizing immunity exists ... but likely not at a 95% level - data seem to be converging around the 60-70% level

(3) reduced transmissibility --> this is, even if you are asymptomatically infected, you will be much less infectious - so it isn't full sterilizing immunity, but you will be asymptomatic, and you will have much lower viral loads / viral shedding - so when you talk, cough, sneeze etc you are putting out way way way less virus ... this was seen very clearly in the animal data and is also kind of a "first principles" thing (4) in sum - the best guess consensus right now is something like: 95% clinical immunity 60-70% sterilizing immunity ~75% of people will have dramatically reduced transmission (either due to sterilizing immunity or get infected but way lower viral shedding) but this will likely be a continuum we will learn more i'm sure about how these numbers exactly shake out, but this is the ballpark to expect THAT IS REALLY REALLY GOOD. It is a myth that all vaccines provide 100% sterilizing immunity - this just doesn't always happen. We could have EASILY been in influenza world, where all you get is 50% clinical immunity - anyone poo poo'ing this vaccines efficacy is just so off-base - this is far better than any expert would have hoped - also, it is very cray cray to say "this isn't really a vaccine" lol - you can say "this didn't turn out to be a magical 100% sterilizing efficacy vaccine" - ok, sure ... this is far better than experts were thinking we'd get (if i get to it i'll post a good review article summarizing all vaccines: it is a myth that all vaccines provide 100% sterilizing immunity - some do, many don't - many provide some sterilizing immunity but not total, etc. etc. - this is all very normal vaccine stuff)

now, it is totally true that the messaging has been bad and that 60-75% is not 100% --> therefore, it is absolutely right to say "nothing really changes until 70% of people get vaccinated (or prior infected) and case rates get really small" --> wear masks, socially distance, increase air ventilation, crowds and indoor activities should be curtailed ... this is until a sizable % of pop has immunity and/or case levels drop ... because yes, some (probably not most) vaccinated people will still be able to transmit the virus - and yes, the messaging on this has been bad - people following this closely have known this was likely to be the case honestly since april based on the animal data ... but yeah, overall education has been not great, but c'mon: we've only actually been vaccinating people for like a **** week lol - and we have no functioning federal government - give it a little time, we'll get the message out [side note: this is where we can also make a quantum leap forward with at-home, cheap rapid antigen testing - the technology exists for $5 at home 15 minute antigen testing with very good sensitivity/specificity - now, if you've had the vaccine and have a negative test, you are basically 100% home free ... almost all experts say these tests should have been deployed at scale months ago - and Biden has signaled this will be a priority (why we don't have this yet is very interested but is a whole other thread) ... so i think if we add mass scale at home rapid testing, (plusl normal spring ebbing) we could get back to very close to normal by april/may]

(5A) scary mutations ... a few initial points: mutations happen all the time with all life - this is normal ... small mutations in viruses = variants, larger & growing in prevalence = family/clade .... even larger = strain ... (5B) evidence exists, though it is not conclusive, that some of the new variant families do have higher transmission ... there is no evidence that it has higher mortality and no evidence that the vaccines won't work against these variants... in fact ... (5C) there is good data that the vaccines WILL work against these variants - pfizer has said they are currently testing against this variant but they have tested against 22 other variants and it has worked against all ... Eli Lilly said their monoclonals work against this variant as well ... there is also ample 3D structural biology that says that the antibodies produced by these vaccines will be able to bind to a large range of spike protein mutations ... and if the spike protein mutated to evade the antibodies, there is a good chance they will have a much harder time infected cells via ACE2 (5D) it is not impossible however - spike will probably over time see 'antigenic drift' and COULD mutate such that vaccines would have lower efficacy ... so it is very likely that we will have to make new versions of this vaccine over time ... this isn't for sure: it is possible that this vaccine will be very efficacious against all spike mutants - we just don't know ... but in the scenario where there is significant antigenic drift, it will not be that hard to make a tweaked version every couple years (mRNA platform will make this pretty easy)

(5E) so in summary on this: yes it is concerning, yes it bears close study (which is happening), but there is no need to freak out - the vaccine will almost certainly be very very effective for almost all people in 2021 ... but i don't want to be fully a pollyanna here - this bears close watching for sure

(6) quick bullet on safety .. this vaccine is very **** safe lol ... most significant side-effects in vaccines are seen within 1-2 months after administration - i don't exactly know why but i've seen that quote from 10 experts .. and we've seen NOTHING so far ... it has common mild adverse events, about twice as bad as flu vaccine and on par with shingles vaccine ... but it is pussy stuff to worry about that .... also the allergic reactions have been self-limiting (i.e. they are treatable and go away) ... unlike flu, definitely wait 15-30 minutes before you leave after the shot ... is it possible there will be some 1 in 100,000 rare side effects that could come out? yes, absolutely ... but this is in "struck by lightning odds" territory, and far far better odds than COVID - without vaccine, eventually 70% of people will get COVID, 0.5% of those will die, and some significant % will have significant long term morbidity ... no brainer

(7) there is very little doubt among experts that that the combination of natural immunity + vaccines (plus normal reduced transmission in spring/summer, plus better mask messaging, plus hopefully wide-spread rapid antigen testing) will bring us back to near-normal somewhere between april and november, with most guesses may-august ... we will be near 100M natural infections around march/april ... and if we vaccinate 100M by april/may, which is i believe still the target, even if there is only 65% sterilizing immunity and 75% significantly reduced transmissibility, we will be approaching the herd immunity threshold even around may ... won't get all the way there until later in summer/fall, but enough that case levels + deaths will be getting very very low

(8) that is not to say "this is 100% over and done forever" - it is correct to say that we will likely be in a world of watching for variants/mutations, tweaking the vaccine, contact tracing mini outbreaks in random rural areas, etc. for years to come ... but life will be mostly back to normal by end of the year at the latest, and probably by mid to late summer, with the trend lines hugely positive in the right direction by ~may

(9) ah yeah should have mentioned kids ... yup, right now only approved for 16/18+ ... both companies i believe (definitely pfizer) now has studies under way in i believe 12-18 ... no one has started any studies in under 12 yet, at least as of a few weeks ago when i looked into it ... yeah, i think a few things on this: (1) by the end of next year (probably more like summer) we will likely have an approved vaccine for 12-18 (2) by the time the aug/sep school year opens up, we will be at or very close to herd immunity - we will be approaching <5000 cases per day, all teaches will have been vaccinated, and very likely we will have widespread rapid cheap antigen testing available... that in and of itself will be enough for there to be a near-normal, very very safe school environment (3) you'll think i'm a right winger ... but it is 100% true to say that this virus is INCREDIBLY SAFE in people under 18 and even and even more under 12 ... like, literally safer than flu ... so once all the adults are vaccinated or immune, it isn't that big a deal for some kids to keep getting infected .... yes, there will be a few horrible cases where a kid gets very sick or dies .... but we are literally at flu (actually literally safer than flu) levels in kids ... i know someone will say "long-term impact of asymptomatic infection isn't known in kids" ... yes i guess that is true ... but i think the general consensus is that really isn't a big concern: we would have seen more of that already if it was going to be a big deal


1. + 1 million
2. I was considering investing some time in composing a vaccine tutorial - but you did it for me - and extremely well. Your medical source is spot on, you are very smart & you express yourself in a very ‘lay user friendly way’ (my stuff would have contained lots of ‘medicalese’). My thanks & my compliments.
3. My advice to the board as the Professor of Medicine that I am - read what Cave wrote several times & learn from it.
4. Further advice to the board - you would be wise to ignore the massively uninformed posts espousing anti-VAX and/or anti-masking/distancing nonsense in this thread. (PS And, as some of you know, appreciate that you are reading this advice from someone who has profound problems with most non-Covid-related left wing policy/ideology.)

Watch Jimmy Stewart in Capra’s 1947 “It’s a Wonderful Life.”. Very timely. Jimmy Stewart was a mother **** boss. Read his bio.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1475 » by Captain_Caveman » Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:34 am

exculpatory wrote:2. I was considering investing some time in composing a vaccine tutorial - but you did it for me - and extremely well. Your medical source is spot on, you are very smart & you express yourself in a very ‘lay user friendly way’ (my stuff would have contained lots of ‘medicalese’). My thanks & my compliments.


Thanks, but my friend wrote that. I will pass it along.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1476 » by Slax » Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:41 am

Deleted.
Stick to Coronavirus/COVID-19


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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1477 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:02 pm

Deleted.
Stick to Coronavirus/COVID-19


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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1478 » by Curmudgeon » Fri Dec 25, 2020 3:33 pm

Why were those two posts deleted? Do the mods here think that social and moral responsibility are not issues related to the pandemic?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1479 » by Slax » Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:51 pm

Curmudgeon wrote:Why were those two posts deleted? Do the mods here think that social and moral responsibility are not issues related to the pandemic?

I mean mine was religious in nature even if it did directly reflect on the virus and protections I believe we should take against it, so I'll take my lumps.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#1480 » by exculpatory » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:33 am

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6625


Abstract

Whether and when to mandate the wearing of facemasks in the community to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 remains controversial. Published literature across disciplines about the role of masks in mitigating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is summarized. Growing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is airborne indicates that infection control interventions must go beyond contact and droplet measures (such as handwashing and cleaning surfaces) and attend to masking and ventilation. Observational evidence suggests that masks work mainly by source control (preventing infected persons from transmitting the virus to others), but laboratory studies of mask filtration properties suggest that they could also provide some protection to wearers (protective effect). Even small reductions in individual transmission could lead to substantial reductions in population spread. To date, only 1 randomized controlled trial has examined a community mask recommendation. This trial did not identify a significant protective effect and was not designed to evaluate source control. Filtration properties and comfort vary widely across mask types. Masks may cause discomfort and communication difficulties. However, there is no evidence that masks result in significant physiologic decompensation or that risk compensation and fomite transmission are associated with mask wearing. The psychological effects of masks are culturally shaped; they may include threats to autonomy, social relatedness, and competence. Evidence suggests that the potential benefits of wearing masks likely outweigh the potential harms when SARS-CoV-2 is rapidly spreading in a community (WHICH IT **** IS EVERY **** WHERE!) However, mask mandates involve a tradeoff with personal freedom, so such policies should be pursued only if the threat is substantial and mitigation of spread cannot be achieved through other means. (THE THREAT IS OVERWHELMING & WE CANNOT AT THE MOMENT MITIGATE THE SPREAD BY OTHER MEANS - HERD IMMUNITY CONSEQUENT TO VACCINATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST THE SUMMER OF 2021).
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