Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2
Posted: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:12 pm
Wife got her first today. I'm up tomorrow.
Spoiler:
Sports is our Business
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1955490
jmr07019 wrote:exculpatory wrote:It was known & well publicized right at the beginning of the Covid pandemic that obesity was a major risk factor for contracting Covid & developing morbid/lethal Covid.
It absolutely was not.
jmr07019 wrote:exculpatory wrote:It was known & well publicized right at the beginning of the Covid pandemic that obesity was a major risk factor for contracting Covid & developing morbid/lethal Covid.
It absolutely was not.
soxfan2003 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:exculpatory wrote:It was known & well publicized right at the beginning of the Covid pandemic that obesity was a major risk factor for contracting Covid & developing morbid/lethal Covid.
It absolutely was not.
I am in between the two of you on this one but this is just a little of the info that was out there very early on that was known/suspected years ago.
This is why I am very upset with Fauci and dozens of others. He knew better in 99.99% likelihood and if he is suffering from dementia at his advanced age, the younger people working for him had to know better. If those people screwed up as well, the people with scientific backgrounds at companies like Google/Facebook/Apple/Microsoft/Twitter should have called attention to the issue by using their platforms to actually educate the public/mass media. The Washington press corps is so scientifically illiterate in the US that I only saw a few people try to ask questions that may have prompted the CDC to actually state what was probably going on.
Fauci himself wisely compared the coronavirus to a severe influenza outbreak. Severe inluenza can kills many people without a vaccine that at least partially works to slow down its spread. So severe influenza with no vaccine is not great news.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-obesity-virulence-influenza.html#:~:text=Previous%20research%20has%20shown%20that%20individuals%20who%20are,longer%20periods%20of%20time%20when%20obesity%20is%20present.
It was very well publicized by Fauci/Birx/others at an early time that if you were obese and/or elderly or several other conditions, you yourself had a much higher chance of dying from covid. They deserve perhaps an A- on that front in getting that message out. So, I believe Exculpatory is right on that part.
But they certainly didn't stress enough to the general American public if you were obese, you were more likely to contract covid that much for the simple fact of being obese. Either live or delayed, I watched most of the Fauci/Birx/Redfield press conferences during the pandemic and they may have made some statements inferring it and may have once or twice even stated it but it was not clear advice like handwashing or at least use hand sanitizer that was constantly pounded into the brains of the American public.
But my main point I am trying to state here is much more profound/frightening about what Fauci/Birx and others failed to say since it deals with the spread of covid. It was reasonable to hypothesize it may spread in similar fashion to influenza. Well if influenza spreads at a faster rate in communities with high obesity levels -- read article that I link to --, the DEFAULT ASSUMPTION from the experts should be that this coronavirus may spread in roughly similar fashion.
Just look at my trivial exponential growth example and the critical importance of slowing it down. We obviously don't know the exact calculations with multiple variables involved -- top data scientists had all sorts of predictions about the expected amount of deaths for various countries and understandably it was hard to get that right very early on --- but we knew relatively early on covid was spreading somewhat slowly in countries with low obesity rates and very fast in countries/areas with high obesity.
And this wasn't something surprising that scientists who study infectious diseases/ordinary influenza shouldn't have thought was a great possibility if not probability.
1.80 ^ 20 = 127482 deaths (1.8 is reflecting covid spread in a high obese country)
1.50 ^ 20 = 3325 deaths (1.5 is reflecting covid spread in a low obesity country)
1.7 * 20 = 40642 = an estimate for illustrative purposes of what may have occurred in a country that put huge emphasis on curtailing obesity starting like in April of last year and called it perhaps even more important than vaccines given that variants getting past vaccines is always possible.
It is sad that no one spoke up at a time the data was becoming compelling and hard to refute that obesity was #1 factor in the dramatic differences in death rates across countries. By April/May of 2020, Google itself could have put the information on their home page. No one had to say this was a scientific fact/100% certainty or that they had the perfect equation to predict the spread of covid which obviously will never exist for nearly any infectious disease but what I am stating here is probably much more of a scientific fact then global warming is going to do massive destruction 50 years from now since at least with global warming if you accept all of the best available science, there may be some decent mitigations or a breakthrough solution from a technology perspective.
When it comes to covid at least, we have a gigantic secondary obesity/compromised immune system problem in America that has led to the deaths of many people who are obese and many people who are not obese. It has led to the deaths of thousands of health care workers, not just nurses and doctors, who are fighting this pandemic. And it is not only a risk to Americans but it is a risk to people throughout the entire world including our neighbors who also have secondary obesity problems.
I am not for forcing obese people into strict diets of vegetables/fruits but I am for getting the message out there with the appropriate messaging. Maybe 25-30% of the people would change for the better making this pandemic only half as bad in the United States.
exculpatory wrote:soxfan2003 wrote:jmr07019 wrote:
It absolutely was not.
I am in between the two of you on this one but this is just a little of the info that was out there very early on that was known/suspected years ago.
This is why I am very upset with Fauci and dozens of others. He knew better in 99.99% likelihood and if he is suffering from dementia at his advanced age, the younger people working for him had to know better. If those people screwed up as well, the people with scientific backgrounds at companies like Google/Facebook/Apple/Microsoft/Twitter should have called attention to the issue by using their platforms to actually educate the public/mass media. The Washington press corps is so scientifically illiterate in the US that I only saw a few people try to ask questions that may have prompted the CDC to actually state what was probably going on.
Fauci himself wisely compared the coronavirus to a severe influenza outbreak. Severe inluenza can kills many people without a vaccine that at least partially works to slow down its spread. So severe influenza with no vaccine is not great news.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-obesity-virulence-influenza.html#:~:text=Previous%20research%20has%20shown%20that%20individuals%20who%20are,longer%20periods%20of%20time%20when%20obesity%20is%20present.
It was very well publicized by Fauci/Birx/others at an early time that if you were obese and/or elderly or several other conditions, you yourself had a much higher chance of dying from covid. They deserve perhaps an A- on that front in getting that message out. So, I believe Exculpatory is right on that part.
But they certainly didn't stress enough to the general American public if you were obese, you were more likely to contract covid that much for the simple fact of being obese. Either live or delayed, I watched most of the Fauci/Birx/Redfield press conferences during the pandemic and they may have made some statements inferring it and may have once or twice even stated it but it was not clear advice like handwashing or at least use hand sanitizer that was constantly pounded into the brains of the American public.
But my main point I am trying to state here is much more profound/frightening about what Fauci/Birx and others failed to say since it deals with the spread of covid. It was reasonable to hypothesize it may spread in similar fashion to influenza. Well if influenza spreads at a faster rate in communities with high obesity levels -- read article that I link to --, the DEFAULT ASSUMPTION from the experts should be that this coronavirus may spread in roughly similar fashion.
Just look at my trivial exponential growth example and the critical importance of slowing it down. We obviously don't know the exact calculations with multiple variables involved -- top data scientists had all sorts of predictions about the expected amount of deaths for various countries and understandably it was hard to get that right very early on --- but we knew relatively early on covid was spreading somewhat slowly in countries with low obesity rates and very fast in countries/areas with high obesity.
And this wasn't something surprising that scientists who study infectious diseases/ordinary influenza shouldn't have thought was a great possibility if not probability.
1.80 ^ 20 = 127482 deaths (1.8 is reflecting covid spread in a high obese country)
1.50 ^ 20 = 3325 deaths (1.5 is reflecting covid spread in a low obesity country)
1.7 * 20 = 40642 = an estimate for illustrative purposes of what may have occurred in a country that put huge emphasis on curtailing obesity starting like in April of last year and called it perhaps even more important than vaccines given that variants getting past vaccines is always possible.
It is sad that no one spoke up at a time the data was becoming compelling and hard to refute that obesity was #1 factor in the dramatic differences in death rates across countries. By April/May of 2020, Google itself could have put the information on their home page. No one had to say this was a scientific fact/100% certainty or that they had the perfect equation to predict the spread of covid which obviously will never exist for nearly any infectious disease but what I am stating here is probably much more of a scientific fact then global warming is going to do massive destruction 50 years from now since at least with global warming if you accept all of the best available science, there may be some decent mitigations or a breakthrough solution from a technology perspective.
When it comes to covid at least, we have a gigantic secondary obesity/compromised immune system problem in America that has led to the deaths of many people who are obese and many people who are not obese. It has led to the deaths of thousands of health care workers, not just nurses and doctors, who are fighting this pandemic. And it is not only a risk to Americans but it is a risk to people throughout the entire world including our neighbors who also have secondary obesity problems.
I am not for forcing obese people into strict diets of vegetables/fruits but I am for getting the message out there with the appropriate messaging. Maybe 25-30% of the people would change for the better making this pandemic only half as bad in the United States.
As I wrote earlier, the USA has failed abysmally FOR DECADES & DECADES in diminishing the obesity epidemic & the metabolic syndrome epidemic which has contributed & continues to contribute to BEYOND ENORMOUS morbidity/mortality due to cardiovascular disease/diabetes - which DWARFS the consequences of the Covid pandemic. Think Mount Everest VS a pebble.
I have seen the deleterious consequences of obesity innumerable times during my career.
And you think ~30% of the literally tens & tens & tens & tens of millions of obese & overweight people in this country would have lost a significant amount of weight thereby developing less severe Covid - if only Fauci et al had advertised the correlation of severe Covid & obesity more than they did? Bless your faith in mankind, soxfan. LOL. Fauci was quite outspoken about this issue from the get go. He did what he could.
Curmudgeon wrote:The problem is that American companies make billions on unhealthy foods crammed with sugar and other bad carbs. Just check out the bags of snack foods on the shelves at any convenience store, or the the lineup of breakfast cereals at the supermarket: frosted flakes, sugar pops and all the rest. Stuff that makes people fat is cheap, plentiful and heavily advertised, while healthy foods are more expensive. Beer, wine and liquor are also heavily advertised, and all of that alcohol turns into sugar in your body.
Cigarettes are no longer advertised on TV. Maybe there ought to be a similar ban on ads for junk food and Budweiser.
soxfan2003 wrote:Curmudgeon wrote:The problem is that American companies make billions on unhealthy foods crammed with sugar and other bad carbs. Just check out the bags of snack foods on the shelves at any convenience store, or the the lineup of breakfast cereals at the supermarket: frosted flakes, sugar pops and all the rest. Stuff that makes people fat is cheap, plentiful and heavily advertised, while healthy foods are more expensive. Beer, wine and liquor are also heavily advertised, and all of that alcohol turns into sugar in your body.
Cigarettes are no longer advertised on TV. Maybe there ought to be a similar ban on ads for junk food and Budweiser.
I agree with you that advertising is contributing to the problem but I think society needs to deal with the consequences in the short term at least that junk food tastes better to most people. Our bodies appear to have evolved to store up energy/fat since thousands of years ago, food was not as plentiful all year round at least. One thing I will say at least in my area, a lot of non organic (and even some organic) mainstream healthy fruits and vegetables are less expensive than nearly all processed foods whether that processed food is relatively healthy or unhealthy. But the advertising for fruits and vegetables on television at least is non existent in comparison to junk food.
Bad-Thoma wrote:So for a mask related story -
My wife runs a food pantry that helps about 300 families on average over a 5 or 6 town area, primarily rural. Since covid came around they've had an uptick in clients for obvious reasons and also had to change the way they approached food distribution to keep everyone safe. So today a man came to the pantry for the first time and wasn't wearing a mask when he approached. One of the volunteers, who is one of the best of the best as far as people go, told the man, "You can't enter without a mask but we can bring you out some food." He proceeded to throw a fit and when my wife came out he called her, without knowing anything about her, "Democrat communist scum", got in his car, peeled out, stopped, rolled down his window and yelled, "Donald Trump won the election!" and peeled out again.
I'm so **** pissed, I know the guy was obviously mentally ill but I want to find him and have a very explicit conversation with the ****.
Bad-Thoma wrote:So for a mask related story -
My wife runs a food pantry that helps about 300 families on average over a 5 or 6 town area, primarily rural. Since covid came around they've had an uptick in clients for obvious reasons and also had to change the way they approached food distribution to keep everyone safe. So today a man came to the pantry for the first time and wasn't wearing a mask when he approached. One of the volunteers, who is one of the best of the best as far as people go, told the man, "You can't enter without a mask but we can bring you out some food." He proceeded to throw a fit and when my wife came out he called her, without knowing anything about her, "Democrat communist scum", got in his car, peeled out, stopped, rolled down his window and yelled, "Donald Trump won the election!" and peeled out again.
I'm so **** pissed, I know the guy was obviously mentally ill but I want to find him and have a very explicit conversation with the ****.
SuperDeluxe wrote:Bad-Thoma wrote:So for a mask related story -
My wife runs a food pantry that helps about 300 families on average over a 5 or 6 town area, primarily rural. Since covid came around they've had an uptick in clients for obvious reasons and also had to change the way they approached food distribution to keep everyone safe. So today a man came to the pantry for the first time and wasn't wearing a mask when he approached. One of the volunteers, who is one of the best of the best as far as people go, told the man, "You can't enter without a mask but we can bring you out some food." He proceeded to throw a fit and when my wife came out he called her, without knowing anything about her, "Democrat communist scum", got in his car, peeled out, stopped, rolled down his window and yelled, "Donald Trump won the election!" and peeled out again.
I'm so **** pissed, I know the guy was obviously mentally ill but I want to find him and have a very explicit conversation with the ****.
A tip of the hat to your wife, despite the fact that she gives away commie pinko food to destitute mask-wearing commie pinkos
exculpatory wrote:jmr07019 wrote:exculpatory wrote:It was known & well publicized right at the beginning of the Covid pandemic that obesity was a major risk factor for contracting Covid & developing morbid/lethal Covid.
It absolutely was not.
Excuse me?
And your medical knowledge & insight derives from what exactly, bud?
From a lay magazine in 4/2020:
Evidence obesity is a risk factor for serious illness with coronavirus is mounting – even if you’re young
April 28, 2020
https://theconversation.com/evidence-obesity-is-a-risk-factor-for-serious-illness-with-coronavirus-is-mounting-even-if-youre-young-137081
From Metabolism on 4/27/2020
Commentary: Obesity: The “Achilles heel” for COVID-19?
Giovanna Muscogiuri et al
Published: April 27, 2020
https://www.metabolismjournal.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0026-0495%2820%2930115-3
From the Lancet on 4/1/2020
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556658.
And about 10,000 more journal references (& lay newspapers/magazines) between then & now.
jmr07019 wrote:exculpatory wrote:jmr07019 wrote:
It absolutely was not.
Excuse me?
And your medical knowledge & insight derives from what exactly, bud?
From a lay magazine in 4/2020:
Evidence obesity is a risk factor for serious illness with coronavirus is mounting – even if you’re young
April 28, 2020
https://theconversation.com/evidence-obesity-is-a-risk-factor-for-serious-illness-with-coronavirus-is-mounting-even-if-youre-young-137081
From Metabolism on 4/27/2020
Commentary: Obesity: The “Achilles heel” for COVID-19?
Giovanna Muscogiuri et al
Published: April 27, 2020
https://www.metabolismjournal.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0026-0495%2820%2930115-3
From the Lancet on 4/1/2020
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556658.
And about 10,000 more journal references (& lay newspapers/magazines) between then & now.
It doesn’t take a medical degree to know what the major news stations are reporting. Ya know.... what 90% of the country bases their decisions off of.
Curmudgeon wrote:Obesity is a co-morbidity for lots of things: heart disease, diabetes, flu --just about everything. Your heart and lungs have to work much harder.
So what else is new?