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Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#941 » by claycarver » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:17 am

Bad-Thoma wrote:The whole country is increasing testing and some states are still dropping or holding steady while others are on the rise. It's not just a result of increased testing no matter what people might hope. Keep taking this seriously.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/record-spikes-in-new-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-sweep-parts-of-u-s-idUSKBN23L0JB

Nationally, there were over 25,000 new cases reported on Saturday, the highest tally for a Saturday since May 2, in part due to a significant increase in testing over the past six weeks.

Perhaps more troubling for health officials, many of these states are also seeing record hospitalizations - a metric not affected by increased testing.


This is accurate but misleading.

So, I just spot checked North Carolina from the list. It is true that North Carolina has a record number of hospitalizations, but that's only because their numbers have been unusually low. Their record high is 798. By contrast, Maryland is really happy that they're down to 751 hospitalizations...even though North Carolina has 4 million more residents than Maryland.

North Carolina's data does not show any indication that they're in trouble. So even though it's accurate that there are record hospitalizations in North Carolina, that statement gives a false impression.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#942 » by ConstableGeneva » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:52 am

Read on Twitter

Drownings are surprisingly high. (And people still love going to beaches, Vegas pools, and Lake of the Ozarks tsk.)
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#943 » by Big Joke Line » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:38 am

claycarver wrote:
Bad-Thoma wrote:The whole country is increasing testing and some states are still dropping or holding steady while others are on the rise. It's not just a result of increased testing no matter what people might hope. Keep taking this seriously.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/record-spikes-in-new-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-sweep-parts-of-u-s-idUSKBN23L0JB

Nationally, there were over 25,000 new cases reported on Saturday, the highest tally for a Saturday since May 2, in part due to a significant increase in testing over the past six weeks.

Perhaps more troubling for health officials, many of these states are also seeing record hospitalizations - a metric not affected by increased testing.


The problem in the way these things get reported.

So, I just spot checked North Carolina from the list. It is true that North Carolina has a record number of hospitalizations, but that's only because their numbers have been unusually low. Their record high is 798. By contrast, Maryland is really happy that they're down to 751 hospitalizations...even though North Carolina is 4 million people larger than Maryland.

Point is, North Carolina does not show any indication that they're in trouble. So even though it is accurate that there are record hospitalizations in North Carolina, that statement gives a false impression of the situation North Carolina is dealing with.

50 point type headline “FLORIDA CASES SPIKE AFTER BEACHES OPEN EARLY!” 7 point type at the end of an article full of misleading stats “public testing in Florida made widely available for the first time last week”.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#944 » by claycarver » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:06 am

ConstableGeneva wrote:
Read on Twitter

Drownings are surprisingly high. (And people still love going to beaches, Vegas pools, and Lake of the Ozarks tsk.)


No cancer or cardiovascular disease? I'm pretty sure HIV/AIDS has killed about the same number of people as the Coronavirus this year. If you leave off enough causes, death by lightning strike starts to look likely.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#945 » by ConstableGeneva » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:19 am

claycarver wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:
Read on Twitter

Drownings are surprisingly high. (And people still love going to beaches, Vegas pools, and Lake of the Ozarks tsk.)


No cancer or cardiovascular disease? I'm pretty sure HIV/AIDS has killed about the same number of people as the Coronavirus this year. If you leave off enough causes, death by lightning strike starts to look likely.

It did say "Selected Causes of Deaths...". There's also a footnote below: "Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually."
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#946 » by Bad-Thoma » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:24 pm

claycarver wrote:
Bad-Thoma wrote:The whole country is increasing testing and some states are still dropping or holding steady while others are on the rise. It's not just a result of increased testing no matter what people might hope. Keep taking this seriously.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/record-spikes-in-new-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-sweep-parts-of-u-s-idUSKBN23L0JB

Nationally, there were over 25,000 new cases reported on Saturday, the highest tally for a Saturday since May 2, in part due to a significant increase in testing over the past six weeks.

Perhaps more troubling for health officials, many of these states are also seeing record hospitalizations - a metric not affected by increased testing.


This is accurate but misleading.

So, I just spot checked North Carolina from the list. It is true that North Carolina has a record number of hospitalizations, but that's only because their numbers have been unusually low. Their record high is 798. By contrast, Maryland is really happy that they're down to 751 hospitalizations...even though North Carolina has 4 million more residents than Maryland.

North Carolina's data does not show any indication that they're in trouble. So even though it's accurate that there are record hospitalizations in North Carolina, that statement gives a false impression.


Clay, I'm really not sure what you are trying to say here. North Carolina, in some regions, is at 69% to 77% hospital bed capacity and getting record numbers of hospitalizations from covid. That's a sign of trouble. It's not as easy as just shuffling people off to another region to open hospital space, that's too slow of a process to really help when hospitals hit capacity (ask NY how that goes). I'm not saying the whole country needs to be shut down or anything, I'm saying people aren't taking this seriously enough and because of this eventually we may hit another shut down similar to what we dealt with this spring. That's the last thing economically or mental/physical "healthily" we need. I want my kid to go back to school next fall and I don't want to be sitting at home with my thumb in my ass while I worry about my wife going to work in an essential service every day because we all have to quarantine again. There needs to be stronger leadership on a national and state level, yes open things up but enforce guidelines rather than hodgepodge a plan together. I live on the VT/upstate NY border and going to businesses from one state to the other is night and day different. VT most places won't allow you in without a mask, limit the number of people, etc. The upstate NY side of the border is a little red necky and every place you go there's invariably people acting like nothing is going on, no mask, life as normal. Therse are towns that are 15-20 minutes apart. There need's to be a coherent national narrative on this and we're just not getting it, and it's going to cost us down the road.

We seem to fall on different sides of this a little but I do respect your opinion, I just feel like you're cherry picking a little to make a point and I'm not clear on what that point is. Help me with that. To be clear, I'm not saying we need to be in a quarantine (at this moment). I agree with your previous point that when it comes to quarantine we need to be targeting the most vulnerable, i.e. nursing homes etc.. What I am saying is that this thing is real and not going away if people don't take it seriously and do some small, slightly inconvenient things like wear a **** mask even though it's not super comfortable and isn't 100% effective. It doesn't need to be 100% **** effective, it just needs to help. Try to stand away from people, try not to gather indoors in large numbers etc. I've not only seen people not wearing masks but also shaming people who are. What in the ever loving **** is that about? How **** dumb do they have to be to criticize someone for attempting to help in a way that harms neither themselves or anyone else and is a safety guideline? It hasn't happened to me yet, but it's happened to a couple of my neighbors and I'm anger loaded and ready to rip into someone so part of me is hoping for it, just a little bit.

So really, all I'm saying is dismissal and apathy is going to cost us hard down the road if we aren't careful. The outbreaks are embers, you can stomp them out pretty easily but if you don't ignore them there's a chance the house goes up. The more embers ignored the higher the chance. People need to be vigilant, not dismissive. Not scared, not wrapped in saran wrap and buried in the yard, just vigilant. The vacuum of national leadership is going a long ways towards stopping this from happening.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#947 » by threrf23 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:54 pm

CDC apparently maintains an estimated 0.26% mortality rate, although the consensus amongst some scientists seems to be about 0.5%.

(source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/)

A recent study factoring antibody testing found that the mortality rate varied from 0.02 to 0.78 depending on location, with a median of 0.25% - either this supports the CDC estimate or speaks to some logic behind it. However, the accuracy of some antibody tests have come under fire, and I'm not sure if the accuracy of any antibody test can be properly measured without a tried and true control to compare to.

I would guess 0.4%.

NYC reports 22k confirmed/suspected deaths according to the official numbers, however the actual number may be higher, and we can guess that of those currently infected, at least a couple hundred more will die. Let's go with 23k. It has been presumed that NYC had seen a higher mortality rate than 0.4% based on statistics and antibody testing, however, if the mortality rate in NYC was 0.4%, and the official stats are accurate, it would suggest that 5.75 million New Yorkers, or 68.5% of the population, had been infected. Scientists generally estimate that the herd immunity threshold is at least 60%, and probably more like 70-80%.

Lately, NYC is reporting maybe 300-350 new cases per day, with 1-3% of tests coming back positive, and cases currently appear to be on a slight downward trend. This is despite many protest-related large gatherings over the past 2-3 weeks, despite a very partial reopening one week ago, despite a (presumed) continued dependence on the subway, and despite that NYC on lockdown might be as busy as many spots that are not on lockdown.

My hypothesis is that NYC is nearing herd immunity.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#948 » by claycarver » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:42 pm

Bad-Thoma wrote:
claycarver wrote:
Bad-Thoma wrote:The whole country is increasing testing and some states are still dropping or holding steady while others are on the rise. It's not just a result of increased testing no matter what people might hope. Keep taking this seriously.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/record-spikes-in-new-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-sweep-parts-of-u-s-idUSKBN23L0JB



This is accurate but misleading.

So, I just spot checked North Carolina from the list. It is true that North Carolina has a record number of hospitalizations, but that's only because their numbers have been unusually low. Their record high is 798. By contrast, Maryland is really happy that they're down to 751 hospitalizations...even though North Carolina has 4 million more residents than Maryland.

North Carolina's data does not show any indication that they're in trouble. So even though it's accurate that there are record hospitalizations in North Carolina, that statement gives a false impression.


Clay, I'm really not sure what you are trying to say here. North Carolina, in some regions, is at 69% to 77% hospital bed capacity and getting record numbers of hospitalizations from covid. That's a sign of trouble. It's not as easy as just shuffling people off to another region to open hospital space, that's too slow of a process to really help when hospitals hit capacity (ask NY how that goes). I'm not saying the whole country needs to be shut down or anything, I'm saying people aren't taking this seriously enough and because of this eventually we may hit another shut down similar to what we dealt with this spring. That's the last thing economically or mental/physical "healthily" we need. I want my kid to go back to school next fall and I don't want to be sitting at home with my thumb in my ass while I worry about my wife going to work in an essential service every day because we all have to quarantine again. There needs to be stronger leadership on a national and state level, yes open things up but enforce guidelines rather than hodgepodge a plan together. I live on the VT/upstate NY border and going to businesses from one state to the other is night and day different. VT most places won't allow you in without a mask, limit the number of people, etc. The upstate NY side of the border is a little red necky and every place you go there's invariably people acting like nothing is going on, no mask, life as normal. Therse are towns that are 15-20 minutes apart. There need's to be a coherent national narrative on this and we're just not getting it, and it's going to cost us down the road.

We seem to fall on different sides of this a little but I do respect your opinion, I just feel like you're cherry picking a little to make a point and I'm not clear on what that point is. Help me with that. To be clear, I'm not saying we need to be in a quarantine (at this moment). I agree with your previous point that when it comes to quarantine we need to be targeting the most vulnerable, i.e. nursing homes etc.. What I am saying is that this thing is real and not going away if people don't take it seriously and do some small, slightly inconvenient things like wear a **** mask even though it's not super comfortable and isn't 100% effective. It doesn't need to be 100% **** effective, it just needs to help. Try to stand away from people, try not to gather indoors in large numbers etc. I've not only seen people not wearing masks but also shaming people who are. What in the ever loving **** is that about? How **** dumb do they have to be to criticize someone for attempting to help in a way that harms neither themselves or anyone else and is a safety guideline? It hasn't happened to me yet, but it's happened to a couple of my neighbors and I'm anger loaded and ready to rip into someone so part of me is hoping for it, just a little bit.

So really, all I'm saying is dismissal and apathy is going to cost us hard down the road if we aren't careful. The outbreaks are embers, you can stomp them out pretty easily but if you don't ignore them there's a chance the house goes up. The more embers ignored the higher the chance. People need to be vigilant, not dismissive. Not scared, not wrapped in saran wrap and buried in the yard, just vigilant. The vacuum of national leadership is going a long ways towards stopping this from happening.


That Reuters report says some regions of SOUTH Carolina are seeing 69% to 77% hospital bed capacity. What I'm reading about North Carolina is that they have a little over 1000 ICU beds available for Covid patients, but they're only using about 20% of the beds currently. They can absorb a lot more than they have currently. This article was written in a way to heighten possible confusion like that because they're lumping states together.

For North Carolina, the issue isn't beds, its infection rate, which is a little over 1. Which is one indicator of concern, but they have a fairly low level of concern when you look at the whole picture including deaths, hospital beds available, positive test rates, etc.

So, reports like the one from Reuters stack several states together and say hospitalizations are high, infection rate are bad, positive test rates are booming, whatever...which is true individually, but not necessarily true collectively. They're mashing them all together and making it hard for the reader to see that these states don't all share all the warning indicators mentioned. Separating out the condition of each state gives a more clear and less alarming picture.

I am NOT saying that things should just go back to normal right away. Gradual reduction of restrictions and observation of outcomes is reasonable. But I am keeping in mind that excessive restrictions pose massive health concerns too. There's no virtue in being excessively restrictive just as there's no virtue in being dismissive of the virus.

Generally, news reports seem to pounce on bad data and present it in a way that presents an overly alarming picture. I think this is dangerous. If the news were shrugging it off and scoffing at precautions, I would be just as concerned.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#949 » by Bad-Thoma » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:30 pm

Fair enough though I do consider Reuters to be on of the least "hyped" sources of news. As I said, I do respect your posts even if we don't always share quite the same perspective.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#950 » by claycarver » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:58 pm

Bad-Thoma wrote:Fair enough though I do consider Reuters to be on of the least "hyped" sources of news. As I said, I do respect your posts even if we don't always share quite the same perspective.


I agree, Reuters is definitely one of the better ones, but I thought this article lent itself to confusion.

And thanks, Thoma, I appreciate your posts as well. To be honest, I agree with what Slax said earlier in the thread. Almost everyone participating in this discussion is knowledgeable and helpful. I know I'm of the minority perspective here but I appreciate being able to talk with people who see things differently than I do. It's becoming rare to find people willing to do that without attacking each other.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#951 » by ConstableGeneva » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:41 pm

TIFWIW:

Read on Twitter


Mortality-reducing more than life-saving really. Still good news I think esp since drug is cheap and easily accessible (supposedly).
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#952 » by Parliament10 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:19 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:TIFWIW:

Read on Twitter


Mortality-reducing more than life-saving really. Still good news I think esp since drug is cheap and easily accessible (supposedly).

I saw this early, too.
Looks promising; over in the U.K.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281
It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#953 » by ConstableGeneva » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:49 am

Read on Twitter

The tweet below and the replies be like... "Ummm... no."
Read on Twitter
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#954 » by threrf23 » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:21 pm

"His oxygen saturation levels dipped to 38 per percent. We tried a combination of medicines until we found one that worked. His oxygen saturation level went up to 97 when we started with the anti-parasitic drug ivermectin.”


https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/cover-story/centenarian-beats-covid/articleshow/76435390.cms
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#955 » by threrf23 » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:42 pm

From the Around The NBA thread.

Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter




Is this thing for real?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#956 » by Bad-Thoma » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:55 pm

threrf23 wrote:From the Around The NBA thread.

Parliament10 wrote:
Read on Twitter




Is this thing for real?


Holy ****, are we in the **** future?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#957 » by C-West » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:19 am

This Clemson thing is nuts. 23 players with COVID after a couple weeks of training? Wake up, people!
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#958 » by Parliament10 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:30 am

C-West wrote:This Clemson thing is nuts. 23 players with COVID after a couple weeks of training? Wake up, people!

Read on Twitter
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#959 » by ConstableGeneva » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:29 am

I'm in favor of cancelling COVID. Who's with me?

If we delete this thread, does COVID go away?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2 

Post#960 » by threrf23 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:08 pm

Read on Twitter


Actually, Tuesday's rally in Phoenix should be worse.

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