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Trade Ideas Thread

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RickyDizzle
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#101 » by RickyDizzle » Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:21 am

If Hayward opted in rather than signing a long-term deal would you trade him for Draymond Green? I think he's actually bigger than Green, but the roster balance is a little better to have a big than a another wing. Hayward is a better player, but Green could improve the defense and is more of a Marcus Smart type that can be a bit of super role player. With Kemba, Brown, and Tatum do we really need Hayward who is best with the ball in his hands?

I'd rather have Hayward signed to a reasonable deal, but if he opts in and he is expiring at 34 million... we'll have no way to replace his salary slot once we max Tatum. If he opts in, I would rather trade his salary slot, I think.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#102 » by SmartWentCrazy » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:49 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:I had previously thought if you went into the tax one year then you would pay repeater rates the next year. Learned today that was wrong. You have to be in the tax for 3 out of 4 years and then pay repeater rates in that third season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2020/

Spotrac has us at $142.5M in taxable salaries before our 3 draft picks. Before COVID the tax line was projected to be at $139M. With COVID impact, it's probably going to be flat or lower compared to this year ($132.6M).

I think Hayward is an ideal fit for us. I love how he works with our starting lineup so I'd prefer to keep him. Here's a plan to do so while staying under the tax:

1) Work out an opt out and extend deal with Hayward. He opts out of $34.2M to sign a 3 year, $90.72M deal. This gives him a 1st year salary of $28M so we save $6.2M. It lines him up to expire with Kemba so we can transition to a new cast around Tatum/Brown at that time. For him, he adds 2 years and $56.52M to his deal which I think is nice security in an uncertain market.

2) Trade Kanter, Carsen Edwards, #30 to Detroit. Salary dump deal. We give up a pick to clear about $10M of salary. Kanter sucks to lose but we just have to cheap out at backup center to avoid the tax. It is what it is. We free up $9.14M in salary with this (and also avoid a guaranteed deal for a 1st round pick).

3) Decline option on Javonte Green. Just freeing up roster space. Another $1.52M gone.

4) Pick up option on Semi. He's just a good value at that price and adds depth.

5) Use #17 and #26 on players ready to fill PG and center minutes. Ideally

6) Sign Waters to an NBA deal.

7) Sign the best vet minimum player you can.

So from the original $142.5M I freed up $16.86M. That gets us down to $125.64M. That will rise a bit with signing #17, #27, Waters ad a vet min player. 2-way deals would be Tacko and the #46 pick. Our roster would be:

Kemba / #17 or #26 pick / Waters
Brown / Smart / Langford
Hayward / Ojeleye
Tatum / G. Williams
Theis / R. Williams / #17 or #26 pick.

That's 14 players. The vet min guy would fill in where he can. Ideally Langford makes a year 2 leap and claims a rotation spot the way we've seen guys in the past do (i.e. Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier).

Depending on COVID, they could be enough to stay below the tax while keeping Hayward. Sets us up to pay tax in '21-22 and '22-23 but at non repeater rates. Then going into '23-24 you have cap flexibility around Tatum/Brown.


Think youre a bit high on Hayward. In this market, with a new cap, I’d guess a 4/90 offer gets it done so long as we give an under the table NTC to him.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#103 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:40 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:I had previously thought if you went into the tax one year then you would pay repeater rates the next year. Learned today that was wrong. You have to be in the tax for 3 out of 4 years and then pay repeater rates in that third season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2020/

Spotrac has us at $142.5M in taxable salaries before our 3 draft picks. Before COVID the tax line was projected to be at $139M. With COVID impact, it's probably going to be flat or lower compared to this year ($132.6M).

I think Hayward is an ideal fit for us. I love how he works with our starting lineup so I'd prefer to keep him. Here's a plan to do so while staying under the tax:

1) Work out an opt out and extend deal with Hayward. He opts out of $34.2M to sign a 3 year, $90.72M deal. This gives him a 1st year salary of $28M so we save $6.2M. It lines him up to expire with Kemba so we can transition to a new cast around Tatum/Brown at that time. For him, he adds 2 years and $56.52M to his deal which I think is nice security in an uncertain market.

2) Trade Kanter, Carsen Edwards, #30 to Detroit. Salary dump deal. We give up a pick to clear about $10M of salary. Kanter sucks to lose but we just have to cheap out at backup center to avoid the tax. It is what it is. We free up $9.14M in salary with this (and also avoid a guaranteed deal for a 1st round pick).

3) Decline option on Javonte Green. Just freeing up roster space. Another $1.52M gone.

4) Pick up option on Semi. He's just a good value at that price and adds depth.

5) Use #17 and #26 on players ready to fill PG and center minutes. Ideally

6) Sign Waters to an NBA deal.

7) Sign the best vet minimum player you can.

So from the original $142.5M I freed up $16.86M. That gets us down to $125.64M. That will rise a bit with signing #17, #27, Waters ad a vet min player. 2-way deals would be Tacko and the #46 pick. Our roster would be:

Kemba / #17 or #26 pick / Waters
Brown / Smart / Langford
Hayward / Ojeleye
Tatum / G. Williams
Theis / R. Williams / #17 or #26 pick.

That's 14 players. The vet min guy would fill in where he can. Ideally Langford makes a year 2 leap and claims a rotation spot the way we've seen guys in the past do (i.e. Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier).

Depending on COVID, they could be enough to stay below the tax while keeping Hayward. Sets us up to pay tax in '21-22 and '22-23 but at non repeater rates. Then going into '23-24 you have cap flexibility around Tatum/Brown.


Think youre a bit high on Hayward. In this market, with a new cap, I’d guess a 4/90 offer gets it done so long as we give an under the table NTC to him.


4 years, $90M means he's adding 3 years, $55.8M onto his deal. I think that's light. 4 years, $90M is a fine deal in a vacuum but you have to pay the premium to get him to decline the option. You're offering him $22.5M/year in your 4 year deal. If he played out his option year and then signed a 3 year deal next offseason at that annual value his 4 year total would be $102.5M. I don't think he would opt out to sign for your deal. I think he'd opt in and sign next year for a likely higher 4 year total.

Also gotta consider the time value of money. Asking him to take too much of a decline in '20-21 salary makes more dramatic a sacrifice than a smaller drop.

Also, I prioritize keeping him at 3 years. That lines him up to expire with Kemba. I'd pay a further premium to keep him at 3 years vs. 4 years because it lines us up MUCH better to transition to younger players to play with Tatum/Brown.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#104 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:41 pm

RickyDizzle wrote:If Hayward opted in rather than signing a long-term deal would you trade him for Draymond Green? I think he's actually bigger than Green, but the roster balance is a little better to have a big than a another wing. Hayward is a better player, but Green could improve the defense and is more of a Marcus Smart type that can be a bit of super role player. With Kemba, Brown, and Tatum do we really need Hayward who is best with the ball in his hands?

I'd rather have Hayward signed to a reasonable deal, but if he opts in and he is expiring at 34 million... we'll have no way to replace his salary slot once we max Tatum. If he opts in, I would rather trade his salary slot, I think.


I don't think GS would. For all the reasons you prefer Green to go with Kemba/Brown/Tatum, GS would prefer Green to go with Curry/Thompson/Wiggins. He fits their roster better in the same way he would fit ours.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#105 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:47 pm

captain green wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:I had previously thought if you went into the tax one year then you would pay repeater rates the next year. Learned today that was wrong. You have to be in the tax for 3 out of 4 years and then pay repeater rates in that third season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2020/

Spotrac has us at $142.5M in taxable salaries before our 3 draft picks. Before COVID the tax line was projected to be at $139M. With COVID impact, it's probably going to be flat or lower compared to this year ($132.6M).

I think Hayward is an ideal fit for us. I love how he works with our starting lineup so I'd prefer to keep him. Here's a plan to do so while staying under the tax:

1) Work out an opt out and extend deal with Hayward. He opts out of $34.2M to sign a 3 year, $90.72M deal. This gives him a 1st year salary of $28M so we save $6.2M. It lines him up to expire with Kemba so we can transition to a new cast around Tatum/Brown at that time. For him, he adds 2 years and $56.52M to his deal which I think is nice security in an uncertain market.

2) Trade Kanter, Carsen Edwards, #30 to Detroit. Salary dump deal. We give up a pick to clear about $10M of salary. Kanter sucks to lose but we just have to cheap out at backup center to avoid the tax. It is what it is. We free up $9.14M in salary with this (and also avoid a guaranteed deal for a 1st round pick).

3) Decline option on Javonte Green. Just freeing up roster space. Another $1.52M gone.

4) Pick up option on Semi. He's just a good value at that price and adds depth.

5) Use #17 and #26 on players ready to fill PG and center minutes. Ideally

6) Sign Waters to an NBA deal.

7) Sign the best vet minimum player you can.

So from the original $142.5M I freed up $16.86M. That gets us down to $125.64M. That will rise a bit with signing #17, #27, Waters ad a vet min player. 2-way deals would be Tacko and the #46 pick. Our roster would be:

Kemba / #17 or #26 pick / Waters
Brown / Smart / Langford
Hayward / Ojeleye
Tatum / G. Williams
Theis / R. Williams / #17 or #26 pick.

That's 14 players. The vet min guy would fill in where he can. Ideally Langford makes a year 2 leap and claims a rotation spot the way we've seen guys in the past do (i.e. Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier).

Depending on COVID, they could be enough to stay below the tax while keeping Hayward. Sets us up to pay tax in '21-22 and '22-23 but at non repeater rates. Then going into '23-24 you have cap flexibility around Tatum/Brown.

OK I'll bite this isn't bad but you never addressed what we get for Edwarfs, Kanter and 30pick (or maybe I missed it.) I kinda feel green is worth the loot for one more year. And hope we don't pick a PG in draft, the rest is a success for me. And depending what we pick up from Detroit I could live with releasing green.


Forgot to write that we also send Poirier to DET. But we don't get anything for that package besides cap relief. They'd throw us a future second rounder. If you want to dump salary in the NBA it costs you assets. The #30 pick is the cost of "renting" $10M of their cap space. Saving that money is crucial to us getting under the luxury tax in my plan. So it's not a basketball gain, it's a financial gain. It's about making our Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Hayward/Smart core financially feasible longer term.

I don't have any issue with Green at his salary. It was just a roster space thing. I wanted to add a proven veteran and there just wasn't anyone to cut off the roster besides Green.

I think PG is a huge roster need. Wanamaker has been the worst player in our rotation and we don't have anyone behind him. Waters had a good G-League year but that doesn't make someone a great option for a contender. Edwards has been a bust and I have us dumping him to go with Waters as our developmental 3rd PG. This PG draft is super strong so the value seems to line up well.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#106 » by SmartWentCrazy » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:19 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:I had previously thought if you went into the tax one year then you would pay repeater rates the next year. Learned today that was wrong. You have to be in the tax for 3 out of 4 years and then pay repeater rates in that third season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2020/

Spotrac has us at $142.5M in taxable salaries before our 3 draft picks. Before COVID the tax line was projected to be at $139M. With COVID impact, it's probably going to be flat or lower compared to this year ($132.6M).

I think Hayward is an ideal fit for us. I love how he works with our starting lineup so I'd prefer to keep him. Here's a plan to do so while staying under the tax:

1) Work out an opt out and extend deal with Hayward. He opts out of $34.2M to sign a 3 year, $90.72M deal. This gives him a 1st year salary of $28M so we save $6.2M. It lines him up to expire with Kemba so we can transition to a new cast around Tatum/Brown at that time. For him, he adds 2 years and $56.52M to his deal which I think is nice security in an uncertain market.

2) Trade Kanter, Carsen Edwards, #30 to Detroit. Salary dump deal. We give up a pick to clear about $10M of salary. Kanter sucks to lose but we just have to cheap out at backup center to avoid the tax. It is what it is. We free up $9.14M in salary with this (and also avoid a guaranteed deal for a 1st round pick).

3) Decline option on Javonte Green. Just freeing up roster space. Another $1.52M gone.

4) Pick up option on Semi. He's just a good value at that price and adds depth.

5) Use #17 and #26 on players ready to fill PG and center minutes. Ideally

6) Sign Waters to an NBA deal.

7) Sign the best vet minimum player you can.

So from the original $142.5M I freed up $16.86M. That gets us down to $125.64M. That will rise a bit with signing #17, #27, Waters ad a vet min player. 2-way deals would be Tacko and the #46 pick. Our roster would be:

Kemba / #17 or #26 pick / Waters
Brown / Smart / Langford
Hayward / Ojeleye
Tatum / G. Williams
Theis / R. Williams / #17 or #26 pick.

That's 14 players. The vet min guy would fill in where he can. Ideally Langford makes a year 2 leap and claims a rotation spot the way we've seen guys in the past do (i.e. Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier).

Depending on COVID, they could be enough to stay below the tax while keeping Hayward. Sets us up to pay tax in '21-22 and '22-23 but at non repeater rates. Then going into '23-24 you have cap flexibility around Tatum/Brown.


Think youre a bit high on Hayward. In this market, with a new cap, I’d guess a 4/90 offer gets it done so long as we give an under the table NTC to him.


4 years, $90M means he's adding 3 years, $55.8M onto his deal. I think that's light. 4 years, $90M is a fine deal in a vacuum but you have to pay the premium to get him to decline the option. You're offering him $22.5M/year in your 4 year deal. If he played out his option year and then signed a 3 year deal next offseason at that annual value his 4 year total would be $102.5M. I don't think he would opt out to sign for your deal. I think he'd opt in and sign next year for a likely higher 4 year total.

Also gotta consider the time value of money. Asking him to take too much of a decline in '20-21 salary makes more dramatic a sacrifice than a smaller drop.

Also, I prioritize keeping him at 3 years. That lines him up to expire with Kemba. I'd pay a further premium to keep him at 3 years vs. 4 years because it lines us up MUCH better to transition to younger players to play with Tatum/Brown.


Eh, its basically a 3/60 deal after his deal would expire— maybe could see him getting 4/100 tops. And to be honest, he could easily get squeezed next year and not even get that. A drop to 90M in cap space will hurt him a lot. He’s not one of the prizes next year and he could easily find himself without a seat in that summers musical chairs.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#107 » by hugepatsfan » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:31 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
Think youre a bit high on Hayward. In this market, with a new cap, I’d guess a 4/90 offer gets it done so long as we give an under the table NTC to him.


4 years, $90M means he's adding 3 years, $55.8M onto his deal. I think that's light. 4 years, $90M is a fine deal in a vacuum but you have to pay the premium to get him to decline the option. You're offering him $22.5M/year in your 4 year deal. If he played out his option year and then signed a 3 year deal next offseason at that annual value his 4 year total would be $102.5M. I don't think he would opt out to sign for your deal. I think he'd opt in and sign next year for a likely higher 4 year total.

Also gotta consider the time value of money. Asking him to take too much of a decline in '20-21 salary makes more dramatic a sacrifice than a smaller drop.

Also, I prioritize keeping him at 3 years. That lines him up to expire with Kemba. I'd pay a further premium to keep him at 3 years vs. 4 years because it lines us up MUCH better to transition to younger players to play with Tatum/Brown.


Eh, its basically a 3/60 deal after his deal would expire— maybe could see him getting 4/100 tops. And to be honest, he could easily get squeezed next year and not even get that. A drop to 90M in cap space will hurt him a lot. He’s not one of the prizes next year and he could easily find himself without a seat in that summers musical chairs.


Conversely, if Giannis and Oladipo re-sign with their current teams there could be extra money to spend for teams like Miami, Dallas, etc. SO Hayward could have upside potential. Time value of money can't be overlooked here either. You're deal would be asking him to take a paycut down to like $20M from $34.2M. Time value of money is big there.

I just don't think that deal is enough incentive for him to opt out. I also care very strongly about 3 years vs. 4. We have to make sure Tatum stays here not just for his second deal but his third (same with Brown, but to a lesser importance). When it comes time to sign their 3rd deals, the current Kemba/Hayward core won't be in place. It's going to be whatever we transition from those guys to that will be their long-term running mates if they re-sign. Having cap space when Kemba's deal expires is a monumental benefit in getting good pieces in place for that. Signing Hayward past that offseason blows that up. So 3 years more of Hayward vs 4 is honestly non-negotiable for me. Going 4 vs 3 is a huge inconvenience towards putting a core in place for when Tatum makes his next FA decision.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#108 » by captain green » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
captain green wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:I had previously thought if you went into the tax one year then you would pay repeater rates the next year. Learned today that was wrong. You have to be in the tax for 3 out of 4 years and then pay repeater rates in that third season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/2020/

Spotrac has us at $142.5M in taxable salaries before our 3 draft picks. Before COVID the tax line was projected to be at $139M. With COVID impact, it's probably going to be flat or lower compared to this year ($132.6M).

I think Hayward is an ideal fit for us. I love how he works with our starting lineup so I'd prefer to keep him. Here's a plan to do so while staying under the tax:

1) Work out an opt out and extend deal with Hayward. He opts out of $34.2M to sign a 3 year, $90.72M deal. This gives him a 1st year salary of $28M so we save $6.2M. It lines him up to expire with Kemba so we can transition to a new cast around Tatum/Brown at that time. For him, he adds 2 years and $56.52M to his deal which I think is nice security in an uncertain market.

2) Trade Kanter, Carsen Edwards, #30 to Detroit. Salary dump deal. We give up a pick to clear about $10M of salary. Kanter sucks to lose but we just have to cheap out at backup center to avoid the tax. It is what it is. We free up $9.14M in salary with this (and also avoid a guaranteed deal for a 1st round pick).

3) Decline option on Javonte Green. Just freeing up roster space. Another $1.52M gone.

4) Pick up option on Semi. He's just a good value at that price and adds depth.

5) Use #17 and #26 on players ready to fill PG and center minutes. Ideally

6) Sign Waters to an NBA deal.

7) Sign the best vet minimum player you can.

So from the original $142.5M I freed up $16.86M. That gets us down to $125.64M. That will rise a bit with signing #17, #27, Waters ad a vet min player. 2-way deals would be Tacko and the #46 pick. Our roster would be:

Kemba / #17 or #26 pick / Waters
Brown / Smart / Langford
Hayward / Ojeleye
Tatum / G. Williams
Theis / R. Williams / #17 or #26 pick.

That's 14 players. The vet min guy would fill in where he can. Ideally Langford makes a year 2 leap and claims a rotation spot the way we've seen guys in the past do (i.e. Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier).

Depending on COVID, they could be enough to stay below the tax while keeping Hayward. Sets us up to pay tax in '21-22 and '22-23 but at non repeater rates. Then going into '23-24 you have cap flexibility around Tatum/Brown.

OK I'll bite this isn't bad but you never addressed what we get for Edwarfs, Kanter and 30pick (or maybe I missed it.) I kinda feel green is worth the loot for one more year. And hope we don't pick a PG in draft, the rest is a success for me. And depending what we pick up from Detroit I could live with releasing green.


Forgot to write that we also send Poirier to DET. But we don't get anything for that package besides cap relief. They'd throw us a future second rounder. If you want to dump salary in the NBA it costs you assets. The #30 pick is the cost of "renting" $10M of their cap space. Saving that money is crucial to us getting under the luxury tax in my plan. So it's not a basketball gain, it's a financial gain. It's about making our Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Hayward/Smart core financially feasible longer term.

I don't have any issue with Green at his salary. It was just a roster space thing. I wanted to add a proven veteran and there just wasn't anyone to cut off the roster besides Green.

I think PG is a huge roster need. Wanamaker has been the worst player in our rotation and we don't have anyone behind him. Waters had a good G-League year but that doesn't make someone a great option for a contender. Edwards has been a bust and I have us dumping him to go with Waters as our developmental 3rd PG. This PG draft is super strong so the value seems to line up well.

Highly doubt we drop Kanter , Poirer, Edwards and the 30 pick for nothing or a 10 mil rental as your say. Deals like that never happen. 1 or 2 sure but 3 players and a pick? Can't see it. Danny did drop back last year for bucks pick but 3 players were not involved, so likely a deal like last year.
We always talk about there’s A-to-Z… really, there’s A-to-G or -E,’” Ainge told Celtics.com of a team’s typical offseason agenda. “This year, there’s definitely A-to-Z.” : danny ainge
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#109 » by Curmudgeon » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:14 am

I think people are vastly overvaluing Hayward as a trade asset. No one really wants him. Nice player but he's an expensive injury risk. He has more value to the Celtics than to any other team, although you could probably trade Hayward to Golden State for Wiggins, if you wanted Wiggins (I most certainly do not). No way you would get Draymond for him, even if you threw in all three picks.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#110 » by SmartWentCrazy » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:31 am

hugepatsfan wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
4 years, $90M means he's adding 3 years, $55.8M onto his deal. I think that's light. 4 years, $90M is a fine deal in a vacuum but you have to pay the premium to get him to decline the option. You're offering him $22.5M/year in your 4 year deal. If he played out his option year and then signed a 3 year deal next offseason at that annual value his 4 year total would be $102.5M. I don't think he would opt out to sign for your deal. I think he'd opt in and sign next year for a likely higher 4 year total.

Also gotta consider the time value of money. Asking him to take too much of a decline in '20-21 salary makes more dramatic a sacrifice than a smaller drop.

Also, I prioritize keeping him at 3 years. That lines him up to expire with Kemba. I'd pay a further premium to keep him at 3 years vs. 4 years because it lines us up MUCH better to transition to younger players to play with Tatum/Brown.


Eh, its basically a 3/60 deal after his deal would expire— maybe could see him getting 4/100 tops. And to be honest, he could easily get squeezed next year and not even get that. A drop to 90M in cap space will hurt him a lot. He’s not one of the prizes next year and he could easily find himself without a seat in that summers musical chairs.


Conversely, if Giannis and Oladipo re-sign with their current teams there could be extra money to spend for teams like Miami, Dallas, etc. SO Hayward could have upside potential. Time value of money can't be overlooked here either. You're deal would be asking him to take a paycut down to like $20M from $34.2M. Time value of money is big there.

I just don't think that deal is enough incentive for him to opt out. I also care very strongly about 3 years vs. 4. We have to make sure Tatum stays here not just for his second deal but his third (same with Brown, but to a lesser importance). When it comes time to sign their 3rd deals, the current Kemba/Hayward core won't be in place. It's going to be whatever we transition from those guys to that will be their long-term running mates if they re-sign. Having cap space when Kemba's deal expires is a monumental benefit in getting good pieces in place for that. Signing Hayward past that offseason blows that up. So 3 years more of Hayward vs 4 is honestly non-negotiable for me. Going 4 vs 3 is a huge inconvenience towards putting a core in place for when Tatum makes his next FA decision.


Youre forgetting about LeBron, Kawhi and PG as well. Also, with a cap near 90-95M [or down ~25M], many teams are going to lose max space and the musical chairs game will leave someone out. Dallas, as you mentioned them, will struggle in this regard. Securing yourself another guaranteed 100M could absolutely be more optimal than potentially missing out.

With regards to his contract, there are many ways to structure it. We could do descending, so a 4/100 would start at ~28.4 and end around 22. We could structure it as an opt-in-and-extend where its a 3/66 extension on the backend. There is enough flexibility that the guaranteed payday would be incredibly appealing, IMO [said another way, why not guarantee yourself an additional 100M in these uncertain times as opposed to gambling on 130M when you could end up with only 60M if no one has space].

Personally, I think the declining cap means we likely move on— he’ll either opt in and be dealt or opt out and leave. But there is wiggle depending upon how much future upside Hayward is willing to guarantee for guaranteed stability.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#111 » by SmartWentCrazy » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:33 am

captain green wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
captain green wrote:OK I'll bite this isn't bad but you never addressed what we get for Edwarfs, Kanter and 30pick (or maybe I missed it.) I kinda feel green is worth the loot for one more year. And hope we don't pick a PG in draft, the rest is a success for me. And depending what we pick up from Detroit I could live with releasing green.


Forgot to write that we also send Poirier to DET. But we don't get anything for that package besides cap relief. They'd throw us a future second rounder. If you want to dump salary in the NBA it costs you assets. The #30 pick is the cost of "renting" $10M of their cap space. Saving that money is crucial to us getting under the luxury tax in my plan. So it's not a basketball gain, it's a financial gain. It's about making our Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Hayward/Smart core financially feasible longer term.

I don't have any issue with Green at his salary. It was just a roster space thing. I wanted to add a proven veteran and there just wasn't anyone to cut off the roster besides Green.

I think PG is a huge roster need. Wanamaker has been the worst player in our rotation and we don't have anyone behind him. Waters had a good G-League year but that doesn't make someone a great option for a contender. Edwards has been a bust and I have us dumping him to go with Waters as our developmental 3rd PG. This PG draft is super strong so the value seems to line up well.

Highly doubt we drop Kanter , Poirer, Edwards and the 30 pick for nothing or a 10 mil rental as your say. Deals like that never happen. 1 or 2 sure but 3 players and a pick? Can't see it. Danny did drop back last year for bucks pick but 3 players were not involved, so likely a deal like last year.


Two of those three players suck and the third is highly redundant. I could absolutely see this deal in the declining cap future of the league.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#112 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:16 am

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
Eh, its basically a 3/60 deal after his deal would expire— maybe could see him getting 4/100 tops. And to be honest, he could easily get squeezed next year and not even get that. A drop to 90M in cap space will hurt him a lot. He’s not one of the prizes next year and he could easily find himself without a seat in that summers musical chairs.


Conversely, if Giannis and Oladipo re-sign with their current teams there could be extra money to spend for teams like Miami, Dallas, etc. SO Hayward could have upside potential. Time value of money can't be overlooked here either. You're deal would be asking him to take a paycut down to like $20M from $34.2M. Time value of money is big there.

I just don't think that deal is enough incentive for him to opt out. I also care very strongly about 3 years vs. 4. We have to make sure Tatum stays here not just for his second deal but his third (same with Brown, but to a lesser importance). When it comes time to sign their 3rd deals, the current Kemba/Hayward core won't be in place. It's going to be whatever we transition from those guys to that will be their long-term running mates if they re-sign. Having cap space when Kemba's deal expires is a monumental benefit in getting good pieces in place for that. Signing Hayward past that offseason blows that up. So 3 years more of Hayward vs 4 is honestly non-negotiable for me. Going 4 vs 3 is a huge inconvenience towards putting a core in place for when Tatum makes his next FA decision.


Youre forgetting about LeBron, Kawhi and PG as well. Also, with a cap near 90-95M [or down ~25M], many teams are going to lose max space and the musical chairs game will leave someone out. Dallas, as you mentioned them, will struggle in this regard. Securing yourself another guaranteed 100M could absolutely be more optimal than potentially missing out.

With regards to his contract, there are many ways to structure it. We could do descending, so a 4/100 would start at ~28.4 and end around 22. We could structure it as an opt-in-and-extend where its a 3/66 extension on the backend. There is enough flexibility that the guaranteed payday would be incredibly appealing, IMO [said another way, why not guarantee yourself an additional 100M in these uncertain times as opposed to gambling on 130M when you could end up with only 60M if no one has space].

Personally, I think the declining cap means we likely move on— he’ll either opt in and be dealt or opt out and leave. But there is wiggle depending upon how much future upside Hayward is willing to guarantee for guaranteed stability.


Definitely a lot of uncertainty with COVID. If the cap really were to go down that much the NBA and NBAPA might come together to smooth things out and borrow money from future years (especially if Lebron himself stands to lose money because he's not above pushing players into doing whatever is in his own personal interests).

Your scenarios of teams not having enough cap space could just as easily work in his favor. It could remove suitors like you mentioned which incentives those bigger names to re-sign with their own teams using bird rights. That would put Hayward in position to be maybe the top actually available free agent. So a team that maybe would have pursued Giannis now has no one to give the bag to but Hayward.

So let's say instead of these teams thinking they had $35M to spend on Giannis they end up with only $15M to spend on Hayward after he plays out his option. He signs a 3 year deal with salaries of $15m, $16M, $17M. That's a new 3 year deal of $47M. Add it onto his $34.2M option and he'll make $81.2M over the next 4 years. That's definitely less than your deal but there's also the time value of just getting that massive up front payment instead of spreading it out over 4 years which makes up some of it. And that $15M salary seems a pretty extreme projection (but admittedly we don't know with COVID).

Realistically, this is all conjecture at this point. I'm sure by the time the opt out date comes there will be more clarity. In an absolute doomsday scenario maybe a deal in the range you suggested makes sense. But if there's any sort of cap smoothing or they recoup some revenue with this Orlando deal then I think it will be light. We'll have to see what happens.

Irregardless, I actually disagree with your stance that if he opts in he's traded. With his salary so high it's very, very difficult to work out a deal that doesn't require us taking long term salary. And any deal that doesn't involve that probably just results in us having lesser players on an expiring deal. I think him opting out and us doing a S&T is much more feasible than him opting in and being traded. Salary is just too much to match.

And when I say 3 years I'm including 20-21. I want his deal to expire after the '22-23 season, same as Kemba's, if we do keep him long term. So it's just 2 years to tack onto his current deal. Under no circumstance would I re-sign Hayward past that year, whether it's an opt out and extend this year or if he plays the option out and is a free agent next year. But him on the team 3 more years is my best case scenario over him walking for sure.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#113 » by wco81 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:21 am

Does the super Max dollar value stay the same or decline if the cap declines a lot?

It's based on a percentage of the cap but if the cap drops by $40 million say, a 35% slot would be $14 million less a year? So instead of starting at $40 million a year, it could be $28 million?
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#114 » by Curmudgeon » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:24 pm

What happens with the luxury tax? If the cap drops $40M, do the tax line and the apron also fall? If that happens, 30 teams will be luxury tax payors and very few teams will be able to make trades.

LOL, CP3's contract will be nearly 50% of OKC's cap.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#115 » by Triple7 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:31 am

RickyDizzle wrote:If Hayward opted in rather than signing a long-term deal would you trade him for Draymond Green? I think he's actually bigger than Green, but the roster balance is a little better to have a big than a another wing. Hayward is a better player, but Green could improve the defense and is more of a Marcus Smart type that can be a bit of super role player. With Kemba, Brown, and Tatum do we really need Hayward who is best with the ball in his hands?

I'd rather have Hayward signed to a reasonable deal, but if he opts in and he is expiring at 34 million... we'll have no way to replace his salary slot once we max Tatum. If he opts in, I would rather trade his salary slot, I think.


Hell no for mr. triple single. That guy is already on the decline. He’s useless on offense and can’t guard the bigger centers, which is one of our main concern.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#116 » by Dogen » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:52 pm

celtxman wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
threrf23 wrote:
I don't think GS would entertain the idea. Wiggins is the more versatile defensive player alongside Klay, he obvi has more upside than Hayward, and they likely chose to acquire him because they saw potential in him. Hayward meanwhile is slightly redundant alongside Klay, shoots poorly in the clutch, and remains under contract only for one more season if he opts in.

Sure, Hayward is a great offensive fit, and a better option than Wiggins if the goal is to win now, possibly a better option than Wiggins over the long run even. But the difference is not significant enough for them to consider giving up the #1 overall pick. It's a tough sell without any salary implications, considering they can easily use the pick on a player who could contribute immediately, but as noted the #1 pick is also cost controlled while the Warriors don't stand to be able to do anything meaningful cap-wise with or without Wiggins' contract at any time in the near future and they have questionable depth.

Also, Al considers himself a PF. He purportedly agreed to sign with us in part because we were committed to pairing him with a center like Aron Baynes. He like chose to sign with Philly in part because he likely wanted to play alongside Embiid. He might or might not be happy moving back to Center. Even if he were, the contract is really risky given his legs, Hayward rebounds almost as well as Al, and Hayward's defense is at least underrated from a fundamentals standpoint.

Of course, the #1 pick would likely make everything worthwhile for us.


They wouldnt trade the pick in this deal if it were 1; 3-5 and were talking. And Wiggins is a trash defender— Hayward is significantly better on that end.

I think Al would like a re-do on his FA decision, personally. He never seemed happy in Philly and I think he’d be nore than happy to return.

I'm not sure what the infatuation is with Horford is at this point. He was a great signing, but even the younger Boston Horford had us questioning what he was getting paid for many times He did not play well in his last Celtics playoffs intangibles included. If there is any moves that involves freeing up that kind of cap space, I'd look at other possible options. Keep Theis, sign Baynes, and if you can make a splash with a trade, go somewhere other than Horford.


Yeah, Baynes is the guy I’d like to see return. Good starter for this team with Theis and the Williams’ backing up.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#117 » by Dogen » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:06 pm

And the Gordon(s) trade too. GH + Arson/picks for AG. Then sign Baynes if the $ works.

Baynes/Gordon/Tatum/Brown/Walker

Smart, Theis, RWill, GWill, Langford, Waters, Ojeleye.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#118 » by hugepatsfan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:55 pm

Hayward to ORL for Aaron Gordon is intriguing for both teams. If Hayward is opting in, ORL needs to send more money back.

If Hayward waives his trade kicker (for a bigger offensive role heading into his FA year), then it would be Gordon + Aminu to make money work. If Hayward won't waive his trade kicker, we have to take back Khem Birch as well.

I don't think we would have to send a pick back to ORL. The Magic are getting one year of Hayward vs 2 of Gordon, but they're improving for a stronger playoff push and shedding the 2 years of Aminu. If Hayward walked, then they cleared $27M of money off of next year's payroll in Gordon/Aminu to spend.

I like the idea of signing Baynes so his shooting at the 5 offsets Gordon's at the 4. Last year the Bucks traded about 2 years, $24M total of Tony Snell to DET for a 1st. I'd try to do that again. Send them Aminu (2 years, $19M total) + Kanter (1 year, $5M) and give them #26 to take on the money. Maybe include Poirier as well. Birch, if we take him on, should be able to be given away. He's cheap and useful. Making those moves should free us up to offer the MLE to Aron Baynes (or Marc Gasol) and stay under the tax. I'd also pursue DJ Augustin with a vet min deal.

Kemba / Augustin
Brown / Langford
Tatum / Smart
Gordon / G. Williams
Baynes (or Gasol) / Theis / R. Williams

Still have draft picks as well.

If that can be worked out and stay under the tax that would be incredible.
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#119 » by Celts17Pride » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:14 pm

Aaron Gordon is a very bad basketball player that has never made any kind of difference in Orlando. Gordon Hayward for Aaron Gordon is about a negative 6-8 games in the standings. Aaron Gordon is that bad
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Re: Trade Ideas Thread 

Post#120 » by bucknersrevenge » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:54 pm

Celts17Pride wrote:Aaron Gordon is a very bad basketball player that has never made any kind of difference in Orlando. Gordon Hayward for Aaron Gordon is about a negative 6-8 games in the standings. Aaron Gordon is that bad


So you're putting Orlando's overall performance all at his feet? Wow, tough crowd.
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