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Hayward is the key to winning Heat/etc, but he must come off the bench

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Play Hayward off the bench when he returns

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No
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Hayward is the key to winning Heat/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#1 » by OldCeltics » Wed Sep 2, 2020 1:41 pm

You've all seen what Smart can do as the 5th starter, both on defense and offense. So far we've swept the playoffs.

Now supposing the 1 month timeline is accurate, then Hayward will have to quarantine for a week, and get some practices in after a month of not playing. We should get back Hayward maybe towards middle/end of Bucks series.

When he comes back after not having played for a month, he should clearly come off the bench. We need the defense/3pt shooting of Smart. Off the bench Hayward can initiate the offense being an excellent play maker, passer, and above average scorer.

If we come at teams in waves, then we have a much better chance of going deep.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#2 » by Homerclease » Wed Sep 2, 2020 1:54 pm

Doesn’t really matter IMO, both will be playing north of 30 minutes. It’s guys like Semi and Grant who get squeezed out of the rotation and that’s a good thing
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#3 » by NYCelticsfan136 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 2:12 pm

We should be in the finals this season. Get it done. We can play with any team when guys are hitting on all cylinders.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#4 » by itrsteve » Wed Sep 2, 2020 2:37 pm

I've never liked the idea of Kemba, Tatum, Brown and Hayward all sharing minutes to start the game. It just seems really clunky and hinders everybody finding their rhythm from the jump before having to go to the bench.

I know to some it sounds like a travesty for a max contract player to come off the bench - but to me it just seems like an effective spot for Hayward to come in. Particularly a lot of shared minutes with DT as they play well off each other.

We have an insane luxury to have 3 of the 4 on the court at any given time for nearly the entire game.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#5 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Sep 2, 2020 2:41 pm

Minutes breakdown yesterday:

Tatum - 42
Smart - 39
Kemba - 38
Brown - 36
Theis - 30
Grant - 19
Timelord - 18
Semi - 10
Wanamaker - 9

When Hayward comes back he's going to be taking pretty much all of Semi's and Grant's minutes and then you'll likely shave a few minutes off each of the top guys.

Basically, when Hayward is back, we're going to have some 4 man combination of Kemba/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Smart on the floor for like 95% of the game. And then Wanamaker will sprinkle in some time as another ball handler and depending on matchup either Semi or Grant will sprinkle in). Then the C rotation is separate between Theis/Timelord/maybe Kanter.

Starting/bench is a bog discussion I get, but reality is whether Hayward starts or not he's going to face their starters. Int he playoffs with shortened rotations, extended minutes for your best players, and no real "second unit" to lead, not sure it makes a huge difference.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#6 » by nic4747 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 4:16 pm

I agree, I like having Smart in the primary lineup. If he can keep up the good 3pt shooting he makes the defensive end 100x better while still being able to contribute on the offensive side. Hayward would be best as the sixth man leading the bench.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#7 » by Parliament10 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:17 pm

itrsteve wrote:I've never liked the idea of Kemba, Tatum, Brown and Hayward all sharing minutes to start the game. It just seems really clunky and hinders everybody finding their rhythm from the jump before having to go to the bench.

I know to some it sounds like a travesty for a max contract player to come off the bench - but to me it just seems like an effective spot for Hayward to come in. Particularly a lot of shared minutes with DT as they play well off each other.

We have an insane luxury to have 3 of the 4 on the court at any given time for nearly the entire game.

Yeah. I think that it's overkill. -- Too many Chefs in the Kitchen.
3 Max players is enough. Play Hayward off the Bench, if he makes it back.

Then, Trade Hayward in the Offseason for 2 lesser players.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#8 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:31 pm

What is the support for this idea that Hayward takes away from the other guys? Our 4 man combinations of the starters + Smart are all phenomenal per lineup data. Hayward is perfectly willing to take a backseat so it's not like he takes away at all. People have that idea and I just don't see where they're getting it from. It's not supported by data or watching the games. It's something people have made up in their heads.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#9 » by playa-hater » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:37 pm

2 thoughts. doesn't matter for me, about GH and Smart, so long as Boston has someone over semi-Wannamaker

the other is, Bucks may not even be the team we play..
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#10 » by Ernest » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:42 pm

Am I just living in a different world than you guys? He's gonna come back to a team that is doing amazing and just off an injury. Starting? I'd guess he has a few games of like 10 minutes to see if he can get back into things.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#11 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:51 pm

Ernest wrote:Am I just living in a different world than you guys? He's gonna come back to a team that is doing amazing and just off an injury. Starting? I'd guess he has a few games of like 10 minutes to see if he can get back into things.


This is a fair point. Obviously we have to see his progression back from injury and how much he can play as he conditions himself.

I think the debate lies more in some people think this is how it should be even with a fully healthy Hayward - that he should come off the bench so he doesn't "hurt" the other guys. And I just don't get it at all.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#12 » by itrsteve » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:53 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:What is the support for this idea that Hayward takes away from the other guys? Our 4 man combinations of the starters + Smart are all phenomenal per lineup data. Hayward is perfectly willing to take a backseat so it's not like he takes away at all. People have that idea and I just don't see where they're getting it from. It's not supported by data or watching the games. It's something people have made up in their heads.


Completely from the eye test, and I'm mainly referring to the start of games. It just seems off, lots of deferring and looking around - not to mention, it's a luxury to have that much firepower, why not distribute and maximize each of their usage within the pecking order and get touches early?

And Brad does a great job staggering their minutes during those rare occasions when all four are playing - it's just the "starting" piece that never made particular sense to me, is it a stigma thing? It's nearly a moot point as it seems we rarely have all four playing anyway.

With that being said - I'm still in the camp of keeping Hayward, but any future contract years can't pay like the current one.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#13 » by Celts17Pride » Wed Sep 2, 2020 6:58 pm

Will be interesting to see this thread 2 games from now after Marcus Smart shoots 2 for 15 from three point range in Games 3 & 4.

Not hating on Smart. People just overreact to the most recent games.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#14 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Sep 2, 2020 7:43 pm

I don't understand how Tatum/Brown/Kemba are worse on the ball when the floor is being spaced by Hayward vs a lesser shooter in Smart, Wanamaker, Semi or Grant.

I don't understand how Tatum/Brown/Kemba are worse off the ball when it's being handled by Hayward vs. a lesser playmaker like Smart, Wanamaker, Semi or Grant.

I understand the idea that you want more of a complimentary skill set around those guys than a primary option threat. But Hayward is better at all of those complimentary skill set things than anyone else we have. He doesn't step on anyone's toes.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#15 » by jfs1000d » Wed Sep 2, 2020 8:55 pm

OldCeltics wrote:You've all seen what Smart can do as the 5th starter, both on defense and offense. So far we've swept the playoffs.

Now supposing the 1 month timeline is accurate, then Hayward will have to quarantine for a week, and get some practices in after a month of not playing. We should get back Hayward maybe towards middle/end of Bucks series.

When he comes back after not having played for a month, he should clearly come off the bench. We need the defense/3pt shooting of Smart. Off the bench Hayward can initiate the offense being an excellent play maker, passer, and above average scorer.

If we come at teams in waves, then we have a much better chance of going deep.


No way.

Hayward is the one guy who gets the ball moving and is a drive and kick guy.


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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#16 » by GoGreen » Wed Sep 2, 2020 9:30 pm

Hayward isn't coming back afaic. Not even for the finals. The injury screwed him, but it is what it is. Gotta make due with what we got
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#17 » by nic4747 » Wed Sep 2, 2020 9:40 pm

hugepatsfan wrote:
Ernest wrote:Am I just living in a different world than you guys? He's gonna come back to a team that is doing amazing and just off an injury. Starting? I'd guess he has a few games of like 10 minutes to see if he can get back into things.


This is a fair point. Obviously we have to see his progression back from injury and how much he can play as he conditions himself.

I think the debate lies more in some people think this is how it should be even with a fully healthy Hayward - that he should come off the bench so he doesn't "hurt" the other guys. And I just don't get it at all.


I don't think he hurts anyone being in the starting lineup, I just don't think it's the best use of his talents. To me, having him lead the second units makes more sense because it spreads your offensive firepower through more of the game, compared to having him in the starting lineup where he would mostly be deferring to Kemba/Tatum/Brown.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#18 » by hugepatsfan » Wed Sep 2, 2020 9:54 pm

nic4747 wrote:
hugepatsfan wrote:
Ernest wrote:Am I just living in a different world than you guys? He's gonna come back to a team that is doing amazing and just off an injury. Starting? I'd guess he has a few games of like 10 minutes to see if he can get back into things.


This is a fair point. Obviously we have to see his progression back from injury and how much he can play as he conditions himself.

I think the debate lies more in some people think this is how it should be even with a fully healthy Hayward - that he should come off the bench so he doesn't "hurt" the other guys. And I just don't get it at all.


I don't think he hurts anyone being in the starting lineup, I just don't think it's the best use of his talents. To me, having him lead the second units makes more sense because it spreads your offensive firepower through more of the game, compared to having him in the starting lineup where he would mostly be deferring to Kemba/Tatum/Brown.


I agree with the premise of your idea - have Hayward roll with the bench players to make up for the lack of offense. Instead of:

Kemba / Wanamaker
Brown / Smart
Hayward / Semi
Tatum / Grant
Theis / Rob

you prefer

Kemba / Wanamaker
Smart / Hayward
Brown / Semi
Tatum / Grant
Theis / Rob

Idea being that the starting group doesn't NEED Hayward's offense over Smart so put with the bench unit that does need it more. Better balances the lineups.

Where I disagree with you is that the "second unit" doesn't actually exist like this. No one makes 5 in/5 out substitutions. The second unit isn't actually a thing in real games the way we list it out on paper. In actual rotations it's always going to be a mix of starters and bench players. So even without having Hayward off the bench you're still going to accomplish your goal of having one of Hayward/Tatum/Kemba running alongside the bench (left Brown off because I'm not sure he's that type of player even on 2nd unit to really run an offense).

Since it does't really matter in the "second unit" I say start Hayward to maximize the shared time on the court of all our best players.

this is all assuming health of course.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#19 » by NormanDale » Wed Sep 2, 2020 10:03 pm

Ernest wrote:Am I just living in a different world than you guys? He's gonna come back to a team that is doing amazing and just off an injury. Starting? I'd guess he has a few games of like 10 minutes to see if he can get back into things.


10 minutes if that. Don't bring him back before he's ready again. And DEFINITELY don't throw him back into the starting lineup, or 30 min per game of action.

...which is exactly what Brad is likely to do. I'll be fine if he stays out. Team looks great right now.
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Re: Hayward is the key to winning Bucks/etc, but he must come off the bench 

Post#20 » by ConstableGeneva » Wed Sep 2, 2020 10:18 pm

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

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