"Moneyball-ing" 2019-20 season to 2020-21 season

[JediMasterRevan]

This is a long post, so bear with me.

Alot of posters blaming smart, or blaming the loss of Hayward etc as being the issues for this season, so I decided to see if they were right or wrong.





So comparing the core 4 from last year to this year we see the following:
Tatum and Brown have upped their attempts and smart has decreased
Brown has improved his shooting from all spots on the floor.
Smart has improved fg% and dropped a bit in 3pt%
Tatum has dropped a bit in 3pt%
Kemba has gotten worse shooting from all spots on the floor.

Brown, Tatum and Smart have all improved their assist numbers (Passing) but kemba has not improved.

Other than that we have to look at the team around those 4 guys.

2019-2020 (had to appear in at least 20 games)

Vincent Poirier
Robert Williams
Romeo Langford
Carsen Edwards
Javonte Green
Gordon Hayward
Enes Kanter
Daniel Theis
Grant Williams
Semi Ojeleye
Brad Wanamaker

These guys as a whole averaged
63.9 ppg
38.3 rpg
13.6 apg
5.3 spg
5.4 bpg
48% fg
32 3PT%


2020-2021 (had to appear the same weighting of games as 20 out of 72 games in previous season - 28% or 13 games)

Carsen Edward
Javonte Green
Aaron Nesmith
Jeff Teague
Tristan Thompson
Grant Williams
Robert Williams
Semi Ojeleye
Daniel Theis
Payton Pritchard

These guys as a whole averaged
62.5 ppg
35.7 rpg
11.4 apg
5.4 spg
4.5 bpg
49% fg
30% 3pt

So the "other" players are giving an admirable effort in relation to per game averages.
6 guys appear in both seasons with the differences being
Hayward
Wannamaker
Kanter
Langford
Poirier

all being replaced by
Thompson
Teague
Pritchard
Nesmith

It would seem like the bench is much worse this year, but statistically it is producing the same. So what is it?


2019-2020 offensive rating 114.14 for 4th best this year it is 114.71 with is 13th best (teams are better offensively this year. More teams have adapted their offense to be taking advantage of high efficiency)

2019-2020 defensive rating 107.79 was 4th best this year it is 113.99 which is 21st. (teams are better offensively, but too many players that are bad defenders are getting alot of minutes. Team defense is terrible, rotations are bad, personelle is bad. This is 80% of Brad and Danny imo)

Pace has also slowed down from 99.5 to 98.1(17th to 20th) This is part due to not getting out in transition on turnovers because the defense is not causing as many turnovers this year.

The question is, what is the problem here?

Statistically speaking, our offense is on par with last years (outside of Kemba not shooting good). It seems as though the rest of the league has either:
1) gotten miraculously better
2) are running systems that allow their players to perform better

Our defense is absolutely gotten worse so it seems as though it is either:
1) effort of players
2) personnel
3) system


Seeing that a lot of the personal is unchanged from last year why are our guys performing so much worse on defense?

One thing that stands out to me at least as a certainty is Kemba situation.

Kemba is shooting worse from all levels, usually and issue with missing alot of shots is not having your legs set up good underneath of you. When you get tired one of the first things to go is the legs. Legs is also the biggest contributor to playing defense.
looking into Kembas stats you do see that not only is he worse at shooting this year, his defense rating has also dropped by 4 points. Coincidentally, it is the same defensive rating he posted in his highest scoring/contract year (his last year in Charlotte) when he without a doubt focused 100% of his energy into scoring.

Kemba's defense is causing the defensive system to collapse on itself and allowing the opposing team to get more open looks from 3. This is evidenced by the team allowing 37.3% on 3pters this year compared to 34.8% last season?



team has gone from allowing a efg% of 50.9 to 54.3. Opposing teams are making more shots.
Why?


Too long didn't read summary:

It seems that Brads offense is being passed by. team is producing very similar numbers as last year (outside of Kemba decline in shooting %s) yet the teams offensive ratings in regards to league averages has dropped dramatically.

Defense is another question. A lot of personal has remained the same, Why are we so much worse. Kemba is/has been slowed, that allows for easier offense for opposing teams. Is it effort? is it a result of poor coaching for the players available? do we need more defensive players? The players that have been replaced were not known as great defenders.

[BK_2020]

You are just making baseless assumptions and trying to act like it's some statistical analysis by posting box score numbers of some players. What is the point? There's absolutely nothing in your post to support your conclusions other than your strong, unfounded beliefs.

[dans1230]

Ive come to the conclusion that the problem with team isnt talent, its effort. When they get down big and dig in defensively they are tough to beat. They need to be aggressive from the start of games, double team the hot hand, get physical with finesse players, and stop leaving guys wide open in the corners. This part of the game is the only aspect of Tristan Thompsons game that the team really needs. Be aggressive going to the hoop and defending the hoop. When was the last time you remember a Celtics player in foul trouble?? They just seem like a very soft team that loves to dance with the ball behind the 3 pt line.
I want to see Smart coming off the bench to inject life into the team at about the 6 minute mark of the first quarter. Thats where he is at his best. Allow the bench guys to come in and be in a situation where they need to hustle and play aggressive to get minutes. Pritchard and Nesmith play this way at times, but really noone else.
For Brad, please call timeouts to help slow down opposing runs. He wants these guys to play through it, but they just keep jacking 3's hoping to end the run that way. Call a timeout, draw up a play, and execute it. Hold the guys accountable for their weak play, insist they play aggressive. And if you cant, lets get someone in there that can.

[JediMasterRevan]

You are just making baseless assumptions and trying to act like it's some statistical analysis by posting box score numbers of some players. What is the point? There's absolutely nothing in your post to support your conclusions other than your strong, unfounded beliefs.

Please tell me how I am wrong?

If you are going to adamantly disagree with my assumptions based on statistics then please explain why.

When I look at offensive rating and the ranking of the offense of the team over last season and this season and see that
1) the numbers are all the same (shooting %s, offensive rating, ppg, etc)
2) the teams league ranking has dropped

then it is safe to assume that it has more to do with either more teams in the league getting a lot better suddenly, or the offense that the team runs is not as good as other teams, or a bit of both.


Defensively I have no idea what it could be, I posted a possibly theory for a part, but I outright ask what it could be that has made the defense so much worse. Again, looking at statistics, if the offense is comparable to last years, and the defense is alot worse than last year, one would safely assume that the defense is the cause for more of the issues than the offense.

[BK_2020]

You can't be wrong because there's no substance to what you are saying. You are just making a longer version of the same post you make 100 times a day. Kemba is the reason for all our defensive woes, etc. It's tiresome.

[JediMasterRevan]

Ive come to the conclusion that the problem with team isnt talent, its effort. When they get down big and dig in defensively they are tough to beat. They need to be aggressive from the start of games, double team the hot hand, get physical with finesse players, and stop leaving guys wide open in the corners. This part of the game is the only aspect of Tristan Thompsons game that the team really needs. Be aggressive going to the hoop and defending the hoop. When was the last time you remember a Celtics player in foul trouble?? They just seem like a very soft team that loves to dance with the ball behind the 3 pt line.
I want to see Smart coming off the bench to inject life into the team at about the 6 minute mark of the first quarter. Thats where he is at his best. Allow the bench guys to come in and be in a situation where they need to hustle and play aggressive to get minutes. Pritchard and Nesmith play this way at times, but really noone else.
For Brad, please call timeouts to help slow down opposing runs. He wants these guys to play through it, but they just keep jacking 3's hoping to end the run that way. Call a timeout, draw up a play, and execute it. Hold the guys accountable for their weak play, insist they play aggressive. And if you cant, lets get someone in there that can.

I do agree with you. It seems the teams lacks the heart.

Offensively we are not as good as a fair bit of teams, but its defensively where the team has seemed to die.

Is it personel?
Is it coaching?

It is something weird as at this point in the season we have have 10 players the same as last season. We lost Hayward, Romeo, Kanter and Wannamaker and replaced them with Thompson, Teague, NEsmith and Pritchard. I dont think its talent.

So why is the team not competing this year on defense?

I lean towards Brad being at alot of fault here. We are losing games consitantly, he needs to hold players accountable, I dont care who they are. Dont compete, dont play.

I would rather see Nesmith out there diving on the floor at times than Kemba or Brown watching the ball move around.

[zoyathedestroya]

This is too simplistic but to me the issue on offense is clash of play style preference and fit.

Stevens prefers ball movement and pace-n-space. It's been that way during the IT-Horford days. Everyone thrived, even the so-called ham-and-eggers because everyone bought in. Hayward also prefers that style of play. Big reason other than Stevens why he chose Boston and why he left for Charlotte. Our role and bench players were picked to thrive within that system where the ball constantly moves too. A player doesn't touch the ball for four consecutive trips, you suddenly expect him to knock down a shot on the 5th trip via an unexpected pass cos our star got caught overdribbling and trapped on a drive?

Our stars are ball-dominant, have a score-first mentality, and aren't adept at moving off the ball. But Stevens doesn't impose his system on the players enough and just lets them do whatever in possessions where he doesn't call a timeout. Early in the game, we try to run the preferred offense. And as game goes on, we revert back to iso or PnR with lots of standing around. Gets worse in the 4th and in the clutch when things get tight.

So either the stars have to buy in or replace the coach with one who can get the most out of the strengths of the stars which are iso midrange and chucking from three. Oh, and they don't get to the line or to the rim as much as you want from elite individual scorers.

(I still blame the bench though who barely get shots off.)

The lack of defense is a combo of effort, miscomm, and bad offense affecting the other end.

Ultimately, Stevens is responsible for the games. Ainge is responsible for the season and team-building in general. It hasn't been fun.

[Ill News]

So either the stars have to buy in or replace the coach with one who can get the most out of the strengths of the stars which are iso midrange and chucking from three. Oh, and they don't get to the line or to the rim as much as you want from elite individual scorers.

Yep, I think this is it in a nutshell. Ainge will be at a crossroads this season, but I think he'll choose to fire Brad first and get a coach who can bring out the best in Tatum and Brown. Players are always chosen over coaches, so unless Ainge does something drastic like trade Brown for another star, that's what's gonna happen.

What's frustrating is, the iso-reliant offense really worked last year under Brad, so I really don't understand why it's falling apart now. Part of it has to do with Kemba's production and efficiency going to the pits, and part of it being the supporting players just aren't complementing our core well enough unlike last year's when they had good ball-movers like Hayward and Wanamaker.

Bottom line is, there's so many problems and so little answers.

[JediMasterRevan]

This is too simplistic but to me the issue on offense is clash of play style preference and fit.

Stevens prefers ball movement and pace-n-space. It's been that way during the IT-Horford days. Everyone thrived, even the so-called ham-and-eggers because everyone bought in. Hayward also prefers that style of play. Big reason other than Stevens why he chose Boston and why he left for Charlotte. Our role and bench players were picked to thrive within that system where the ball constantly moves too. A player doesn't touch the ball for four consecutive trips, you suddenly expect him to knock down a shot on the 5th trip via an unexpected pass cos our star got caught overdribbling and trapped on a drive?

Our stars are ball-dominant, have a score-first mentality, and aren't adept at moving off the ball. But Stevens doesn't impose his system on the players enough and just lets them do whatever in possessions where he doesn't call a timeout. Early in the game, we try to run the preferred offense. And as game goes on, we revert back to iso or PnR with lots of standing around. Gets worse in the 4th and in the clutch when things get tight.

So either the stars have to buy in or replace the coach with one who can get the most out of the strengths of the stars which are iso midrange and chucking from three. Oh, and they don't get to the line or to the rim as much as you want from elite individual scorers.

(I still blame the bench though who barely get shots off.)

The lack of defense is a combo of effort, miscomm, and bad offense affecting the other end.

Ultimately, Stevens is responsible for the games. Ainge is responsible for the season and team-building in general. It hasn't been fun.

But the offense is performing as well as last season as a whole. Ratings are almost the same across the board.
2019-2020
113.7 ppg
46.1 rpg
23 apg
8.26 spg
5.64 bpg
46% fg
36.3% 3pt

2020-2021
112.2 ppg
43.9 rpg
23.6 apg
7.98 spg
5.17 bpg
46.7% fg
37.26% 3pt

[zoyathedestroya]

The entire league has their offense humming. Officiating is favoring the scorers more than ever. More emphasis on three-ball. But we went from 4th to 12th in offensive rating even though our offense "improved".

[zoyathedestroya]

So either the stars have to buy in or replace the coach with one who can get the most out of the strengths of the stars which are iso midrange and chucking from three. Oh, and they don't get to the line or to the rim as much as you want from elite individual scorers.

Yep, I think this is it in a nutshell. Ainge will be at a crossroads this season, but I think he'll choose to fire Brad first and get a coach who can bring out the best in Tatum and Brown. Players are always chosen over coaches, so unless Ainge does something drastic like trade Brown for another star, that's what's gonna happen.

What's frustrating is, the iso-reliant offense really worked last year under Brad, so I really don't understand why it's falling apart now. Part of it has to do with Kemba's production and efficiency going to the pits, and part of it being the supporting players just aren't complementing our core well enough unlike last year's when they had good ball-movers like Hayward and Wanamaker.

Bottom line is, there's so many problems and so little answers.

Iso-reliant offense can only take you so far especially if your main guys aren't elite at either iso scoring or iso playmaking for others. We should've already gotten a clue during the Miami series. It's also easier to defend now that we're missing Hayward. All attention on the Jays. It hasn't helped that we've never had a complete roster for more than a minute. I think our best games this season have still been nights when the ball is spraying around and we're making quick decisions regardless of how much the Jays scored. You won't need two hands to count the number of times it has happened though.

[JediMasterRevan]

The entire league has their offense humming. Officiating is favoring the scorers more than ever. More emphasis on three-ball. But we went from 4th to 12th in offensive rating even though our offense "improved".

Our offense stayed the same, but the placement dropped from 4th to 12th

[playa-hater]

This is too simplistic but to me the issue on offense is clash of play style preference and fit.

Stevens prefers ball movement and pace-n-space. It's been that way during the IT-Horford days. Everyone thrived, even the so-called ham-and-eggers because everyone bought in. Hayward also prefers that style of play. Big reason other than Stevens why he chose Boston and why he left for Charlotte. Our role and bench players were picked to thrive within that system where the ball constantly moves too. A player doesn't touch the ball for four consecutive trips, you suddenly expect him to knock down a shot on the 5th trip via an unexpected pass cos our star got caught overdribbling and trapped on a drive?

Our stars are ball-dominant, have a score-first mentality, and aren't adept at moving off the ball. But Stevens doesn't impose his system on the players enough and just lets them do whatever in possessions where he doesn't call a timeout. Early in the game, we try to run the preferred offense. And as game goes on, we revert back to iso or PnR with lots of standing around. Gets worse in the 4th and in the clutch when things get tight.

So either the stars have to buy in or replace the coach with one who can get the most out of the strengths of the stars which are iso midrange and chucking from three. Oh, and they don't get to the line or to the rim as much as you want from elite individual scorers.

(I still blame the bench though who barely get shots off.)

The lack of defense is a combo of effort, miscomm, and bad offense affecting the other end.

Ultimately, Stevens is responsible for the games. Ainge is responsible for the season and team-building in general. It hasn't been fun.

all logical and fair assessments. I agree.

[playa-hater]

regardless. Having one less ISO player (Kemba) for a glue-pass first type (Lonzo or a young Rondo type) would make a BIG difference

Imagine what a Rondo type can do for a RW-Fournier-Nesmith even LK on offense.