ImageImageImage

Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin!

Moderators: Froob, sully00, ParticleMan, The Comedian, canman1971, Parliament10, djFan71

User avatar
31to6
RealGM
Posts: 15,605
And1: 20,897
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: stuck in the middle

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#81 » by 31to6 » Mon Aug 9, 2021 11:43 pm

“and he’s only 19”
Paul Pierce appreciation society.
User avatar
coach mang
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,325
And1: 1,307
Joined: Mar 28, 2003
Location: Trampa, FL

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#82 » by coach mang » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:01 pm

mang like the cut of young feller's jib. he got a kedrick brown way about him (long arms, powerful build, athletic, long strides, 6-6ish). would love to have another crack at dat phenotype of prospect, these guys always go to other clubs.

Image

bring him over to play in maine mo better than froggy league mane
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 8,697
And1: 5,929
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#83 » by cloverleaf » Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:28 am

Anybody getting a young Tony Allen vibe from this kid?
winsomme2
Pro Prospect
Posts: 792
And1: 423
Joined: Jun 12, 2013

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#84 » by winsomme2 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:34 am

cloverleaf wrote:Anybody getting a young Tony Allen vibe from this kid?



TA was a beast of an athlete.

Begarin seems like the exact same player as Langford. Decent athlete nothing spectacular. Long as hell. Scoring two guard needing work on his three ball. good defender with the ability to switch. they really seem the same to me.
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 8,697
And1: 5,929
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#85 » by cloverleaf » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:07 am

winsomme2 wrote:
cloverleaf wrote:Anybody getting a young Tony Allen vibe from this kid?



TA was a beast of an athlete.

Begarin seems like the exact same player as Langford. Decent athlete nothing spectacular. Long as hell. Scoring two guard needing work on his three ball. good defender with the ability to switch. they really seem the same to me.


I think Begarin might be a bit overweight in Vegas, but he is an explosive athlete like Tony. That's not not Langford. Also, Langford is not a defensive beast. He is instead defensive competent. Romeo is not a leaper, which is why his dunk on Tuesday was so startling.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/juhann-begarin/
thebirdman
General Manager
Posts: 8,296
And1: 1,845
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
Location: Slovenia
 

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#86 » by thebirdman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:11 am

I do not think he will be an NBA player. I think Celtics have one of the worst international scouting departments...

Why I do not think Begarin has NBA talent? There are two things I believe you need to look at when assessing euro prospects...

Mistake some scouts/GMs are (still) doing is looking at prospects` athleticism etc. to determine whether he can make it in the NBA. Like Begarin...athletic, great frame but the problem is in the NBA he is just one of the guys...

Euro prospects that make it in the NBA are the ones that have skills which are rare or under developed in the NBA. That is why I am sure Sengun will make an impact. Great footwork and terrific post scoring separate him... who cares if he is unathletic...

Secondly, if you dominate (or at least play a lot) at young age in Europe in top competition that is an indicator that the prospect will be able to play in the NBA. Sengung who is the same age as Bagarin was MVP of Turkish league putting up 19 and 9. Garuba played 83 games for Real Madrid in ACB and Eurolegaue! Bagarin played in French B league...that is like comparing G-league to the NBA.

I just do not see a skill from Bagarin that would make him succeed at the NBA level. Maybe if he can defend like Tony Allen or start shooting threes at 40% but there is no indication that that will happen... He is a 6`5 shooting guard with great frame and good athleticism which does nothing in this league...
User avatar
ParticleMan
Forum Mod - Celtics
Forum Mod - Celtics
Posts: 14,607
And1: 7,651
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
     

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#87 » by ParticleMan » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:44 am

^^ it doesn't look to me like Begarin is a pure athlete who just uses his athleticism to overwhelm euro guys.

he has a smooth stroke and a decent handle. he has above-average athleticism and length even for the nba, though it's not elite. he seems to have a good feel for the game. i think it's way too early to write him off. he does need at least one more year overseas though.

he's got to develop a lot but i like the pick way more than soft-ass "skilled" euro bigs. the nba trash heap is littered with those. i'm not a fan of sengun for instance, though i can see why he's a better prospect at the moment. begarin has a longer way to go but his upside is higher.
thebirdman
General Manager
Posts: 8,296
And1: 1,845
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
Location: Slovenia
 

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#88 » by thebirdman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:59 am

ParticleMan wrote:^^ it doesn't look to me like Begarin is a pure athlete who just uses his athleticism to overwhelm euro guys.

he has a smooth stroke and a decent handle. he has above-average athleticism and length even for the nba, though it's not elite. he seems to have a good feel for the game. i think it's way too early to write him off. he does need at least one more year overseas though.

he's got to develop a lot but i like the pick way more than soft-ass "skilled" euro bigs. the nba trash heap is littered with those. i'm not a fan of sengun for instance, though i can see why he's a better prospect at the moment. begarin has a longer way to go but his upside is higher.


And that is why some teams draft one terrible player after another... How many soft-ass skilled bigs are there in the NBA?

I bet you hate soft ass skilled Doncic as well...

I would say the NBA is littered with no skill athletic guys who can jump out of the gym...

I hope you are right about Begarin and he will make a huge leap in the next few years but I would not count on it...
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 8,697
And1: 5,929
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#89 » by cloverleaf » Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:13 pm

I don't pretend to have the answers for Euro scouting. I am surprised however that US teams don't find more ways to invite tours of young Euros (or Africans or others) to engage in competition with top young prospects over here.

This is a summary from Zizic's wikipedia page of his teen performance in Europe. (He was born in January, 1997.)

"He was named the 2015–16 ABA League season's Top Prospect. In that season, he averaged 12.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 24.8 minutes per game, in 26 games played in the Adriatic League.[1] He was also named to the European-wide 3rd-tier level FIBA Europe Cup's Starting Five Team of the 2015–16 season.

On 11 October 2016, Žižić was named the MVP of the fourth week of the 2016–17 ABA League season. After he scored 37 points and grabbed 20 rebounds, in Cibona's win against MZT Skopje Aerodrom, by the final score of 89–85, in a game that was decided after two overtimes.[2] On 27 December 2016, Žižić left Cibona, and signed with the Turkish team Darüşşafaka Doğuş, of the Turkish Super League.[3]

With Darüşşafaka, Žižić made his debut in the European top-tier level, the EuroLeague, on 30 December 2016, in an 81–77 road loss against FC Barcelona. In his first EuroLeague game, Žižić had 4 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks.[4]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ante_%C5%BDi%C5%BEi%C4%87
Curmudgeon
RealGM
Posts: 33,189
And1: 15,513
Joined: Jan 20, 2004
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#90 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:25 pm

Boston's Euro scouting has been fine since they hired Benas Matkevicius, the guy who found Daniel Theis. As for Yabusele, that was a purely financial decision. He was willing to go overseas for a year to save the club money. The other potential draftees were not.

Begarin is 19 years old. Who knows what he will be? He does not remind me of Tony Allen or Kedrick Brown at all. Right now he doesn't remind me of anyone.
"Numbers lie alot. Wins and losses don't lie." - Jerry West
"You are what your record says you are."- Bill Parcells
"Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounding wins championships." Pat Summit
Hal14
Analyst
Posts: 3,720
And1: 2,485
Joined: Apr 05, 2019

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#91 » by Hal14 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:30 pm

thebirdman wrote:I do not think he will be an NBA player. I think Celtics have one of the worst international scouting departments...

Why I do not think Begarin has NBA talent? There are two things I believe you need to look at when assessing euro prospects...

Mistake some scouts/GMs are (still) doing is looking at prospects` athleticism etc. to determine whether he can make it in the NBA. Like Begarin...athletic, great frame but the problem is in the NBA he is just one of the guys...

Euro prospects that make it in the NBA are the ones that have skills which are rare or under developed in the NBA. That is why I am sure Sengun will make an impact. Great footwork and terrific post scoring separate him... who cares if he is unathletic...

Secondly, if you dominate (or at least play a lot) at young age in Europe in top competition that is an indicator that the prospect will be able to play in the NBA. Sengung who is the same age as Bagarin was MVP of Turkish league putting up 19 and 9. Garuba played 83 games for Real Madrid in ACB and Eurolegaue! Bagarin played in French B league...that is like comparing G-league to the NBA.

I just do not see a skill from Bagarin that would make him succeed at the NBA level. Maybe if he can defend like Tony Allen or start shooting threes at 40% but there is no indication that that will happen... He is a 6`5 shooting guard with great frame and good athleticism which does nothing in this league...

1) Seems like you're jumping the gun to flat out say "I do not think he will be an NBA player" after just 2 summer league games, especially when this kid literally just turned 19 yrs old.

2) Maybe you just haven't seen enough footage of Begarin from overseas. From the 3+ hours of footage I've seen (not counting summer league) the trait that I keep seeing from him is this hustle/effort where he will simply go all out, like run through a wall type of determination. I've seen it on a number of plays. 1 of the plays was the steal that iced the game for us the other day vs Atlanta. He has this extra gear that he can get to. It's a combination of that hustle/effort determination + his speed/athleticism/explosiveness + his length with 7'0" wingspan. If it was just hustle, he'd be able to make some good plays, but there's certain plays he can only make because he pairs that hustle with his speed/explosiveness, and then when you add in his 7'0" wingspan it just adds to it and makes certain plays possible that are just not possible for most players - and he makes a lot of those plays. Watch enough footage of him and you'll see what I mean.



3) You say overseas players need to have 1 rare or underdeveloped skill to make it in the NBA. Maybe, but I think 1 of the reasons the C's took Begarin is because he does a little bit of everything. He has a good all-around skill set. He passes the ball and finds the open man very well for a non-PG, especially for a guy who just turned 19. Last season as an 18 yr old playing overseas he had an assist rate of over 18% which is very high for a non-PG, especially considering he had a pretty low usage rate of around 22%. Begarin is also a 3-level scorer. Watch enough footage and you'll see him attack the rim and finish at the rim ferociously, you'll see him know down 3's and you'll also see him hit shots like the 1 he hit the other day vs Denver where he did a little shake and bake move with the dribble into a step back jumper in the mid range area. Legit 3-level scorers who can also pass the ball well are rare. Legit 3-level scorers whop can pass the ball well AND defend at a high level are even more rare. Legit 3-level scorers who can pass the ball well, defend at a high level, defend multiple positions and have a crazy high motor and amount of effort/hustle/determination they play with every single game are even more rare. Oh and we haven't even gotten to the fact that he's got a 7'0" wingspan, is 6'6" (not 6'5" like you said he is), can handle the ball well (has even played some PG overseas and at g-league elite camp scrimmages), has a strong frame, crazy athleticism...all at the age of 19.

This pick by the C's was an upside pick, a swing for the fences. If this dude puts it all together he could be a star. He could be a bust as well, but with the 4th pick, what do you have to lose?

4) You say "oh, well it would be different if he was a 40% shooter from 3". Let's see here, the last full season Begarin played in 2020-2021 he was 18 yrs old. How many 18 yr olds do you think shoot 40% from 3 at either the NCAA or overseas pro level? At least this year, I don't think there were any.

Here's some guys in this year's draft class who shot 40% or higher, with their age in parenthesis:

Corey Kispert (22)
Joe Wieskamp (21)
Matt Hurt (21)
Sam Hauser (23)
Trey Murphy (21)
Davion Mitchell (22)
Chris Duarte (24)

Those are probably the 7 best outside shooters in this year's draft class. Notice any commonality with their ages? Yeah, they're all 21 or older. Begarin played this past season at age 18. That 3 yrs makes a big difference. It is absolutely realistic that 3 yrs from now Begarin could be a 40% shooter from 3.

Madar went from 28% from 3 at age 19 to 41% from 3 at age 20.
Aaron Nesmith went from 33.7% from 3 as a 19 yr old freshman at Vanderbilt to 52.2% as a 20 yr old sophomore

And oh by the way, during the last 9 games of his season in France this past season + the 2 games at the g-league elite camp in July, so over 11 games, Begarin shot 23/47 from 3, which is 48.9%. Those are the last 11 games Begarin played in before summer league and he shot 49%. For the season in France he shot 34.2%, so that just shows you how much rapid improvement he is making in his outside shot.

Again, Begarin shot 34.2% from 3 this past season overseas. Roko Prkacin (who was also 18) shot 35%. You'd be hard pressed to find an 18 yr old who shot much better than that..

5) Begarin has been dominating dudes in Europe at every level he's played at. This is footage from just 2 yrs ago when he was 16..clearly he was a man among boys:


6) You bring up Sengun and Garuba. They're both very good. I had both of them ranked higher than Begarin on my NBA Draft Big Board. With that being said, all 3 of them can be good NBA players. Even if Sengun and Garuba end up being better, that does not mean Begarin can't end up being really good as well.

Also, Sengun and Garuba both have serious flaws in their game. Sengun really struggles to defend in space, he's absolutely not a switchable defender, he gets burned pretty bad defensively by smaller/quicker guys. And Garuba has serious question marks about whether he will be a negative value player on the offensive end - at this point he's considered a poor outside shooter, below average finisher at the rim and also can't really do much in terms of dribbling the ball or creating offense off the bounce, he's got no post up game. Begarin meanwhile, is a good defender, definitely a switchable defender and has potential to be a legit 3-level scorer.
Curmudgeon
RealGM
Posts: 33,189
And1: 15,513
Joined: Jan 20, 2004
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#92 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:02 pm

Garuba will be an all-star. Sengun most likely will be a decent backup center. Begarin? Who knows?
"Numbers lie alot. Wins and losses don't lie." - Jerry West

"You are what your record says you are."- Bill Parcells

"Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounding wins championships." Pat Summit
thebirdman
General Manager
Posts: 8,296
And1: 1,845
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
Location: Slovenia
 

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#93 » by thebirdman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:02 pm

Hal14 wrote:1) Seems like you're jumping the gun to flat out say "I do not think he will be an NBA player" after just 2 summer league games, especially when this kid literally just turned 19 yrs old.


I am not claiming anything due to two summer league games. I did not watch summer league games (just highlights) this is just my opinion on him based on me following european basketball for 20+ years...

Hal14 wrote:2) Maybe you just haven't seen enough footage of Begarin from overseas. From the 3+ hours of footage I've seen (not counting summer league) the trait that I keep seeing from him is this hustle/effort where he will simply go all out, like run through a wall type of determination. I've seen it on a number of plays. 1 of the plays was the steal that iced the game for us the other day vs Atlanta. He has this extra gear that he can get to. It's a combination of that hustle/effort determination + his speed/athleticism/explosiveness + his length with 7'0" wingspan. If it was just hustle, he'd be able to make some good plays, but there's certain plays he can only make because he pairs that hustle with his speed/explosiveness, and then when you add in his 7'0" wingspan it just adds to it and makes certain plays possible that are just not possible for most players - and he makes a lot of those plays. Watch enough footage of him and you'll see what I mean.



You are right, I haven`t. You know why? Because he played in French B league...so no one really could follow him. But I watched Euroleague, Eurocup, Adriatic league, ACB etc. throughout the season, so I know what other 18 year-old euro prospects did...

Hal14 wrote:3) You say overseas players need to have 1 rare or underdeveloped skill to make it in the NBA. Maybe, but I think 1 of the reasons the C's took Begarin is because he does a little bit of everything. He has a good all-around skill set. He passes the ball and finds the open man very well for a non-PG, especially for a guy who just turned 19. Last season as an 18 yr old playing overseas he had an assist rate of over 18% which is very high for a non-PG, especially considering he had a pretty low usage rate of around 22%. Begarin is also a 3-level scorer. Watch enough footage and you'll see him attack the rim and finish at the rim ferociously, you'll see him know down 3's and you'll also see him hit shots like the 1 he hit the other day vs Denver where he did a little shake and bake move with the dribble into a step back jumper in the mid range area. Legit 3-level scorers who can also pass the ball well are rare. Legit 3-level scorers whop can pass the ball well AND defend at a high level are even more rare. Legit 3-level scorers who can pass the ball well, defend at a high level, defend multiple positions and have a crazy high motor and amount of effort/hustle/determination they play with every single game are even more rare. Oh and we haven't even gotten to the fact that he's got a 7'0" wingspan, is 6'6" (not 6'5" like you said he is), can handle the ball well (has even played some PG overseas and at g-league elite camp scrimmages), has a strong frame, crazy athleticism...all at the age of 19.

This pick by the C's was an upside pick, a swing for the fences. If this dude puts it all together he could be a star. He could be a bust as well, but with the 4th pick, what do you have to lose?


I agree, there isn`t anything to lose. But looking at the stats from last year does not tell much really. French B league is bad... level of competition is so much lower than the Euro top leagues...

Hal14 wrote:4) You say "oh, well it would be different if he was a 40% shooter from 3". Let's see here, the last full season Begarin played in 2020-2021 he was 18 yrs old. How many 18 yr olds do you think shoot 40% from 3 at either the NCAA or overseas pro level? At least this year, I don't think there were any.

Here's some guys in this year's draft class who shot 40% or higher, with their age in parenthesis:

Corey Kispert (22)
Joe Wieskamp (21)
Matt Hurt (21)
Sam Hauser (23)
Trey Murphy (21)
Davion Mitchell (22)
Chris Duarte (24)

Those are probably the 7 best outside shooters in this year's draft class. Notice any commonality with their ages? Yeah, they're all 21 or older. Begarin played this past season at age 18. That 3 yrs makes a big difference. It is absolutely realistic that 3 yrs from now Begarin could be a 40% shooter from 3.

Madar went from 28% from 3 at age 19 to 41% from 3 at age 20.
Aaron Nesmith went from 33.7% from 3 as a 19 yr old freshman at Vanderbilt to 52.2% as a 20 yr old sophomore

And oh by the way, during the last 9 games of his season in France this past season + the 2 games at the g-league elite camp in July, so over 11 games, Begarin shot 23/47 from 3, which is 48.9%. Those are the last 11 games Begarin played in before summer league and he shot 49%. For the season in France he shot 34.2%, so that just shows you how much rapid improvement he is making in his outside shot.

Again, Begarin shot 34.2% from 3 this past season overseas. Roko Prkacin (who was also 18) shot 35%. You'd be hard pressed to find an 18 yr old who shot much better than that..


That was just an example of a special skill. I hope he develops but this year playing in French A league will tell us a lot more...


Hal14 wrote:5) Begarin has been dominating dudes in Europe at every level he's played at. This is footage from just 2 yrs ago when he was 16..clearly he was a man among boys:


That is just not true. Go check his stats in FIBA under 19 or 18 competitions. The highlight you linked...he averaged 7 points and shot 10% from three (1/10) and 35% from free throw line (5/14) in this competitions...

And he wasn`t even on U-19 WC French roster this year...you know who was dominating there for France. A 17 year-old Wembanyama.

Hal14 wrote:6) You bring up Sengun and Garuba. They're both very good. I had both of them ranked higher than Begarin on my NBA Draft Big Board. With that being said, all 3 of them can be good NBA players. Even if Sengun and Garuba end up being better, that does not mean Begarin can't end up being really good as well.

Also, Sengun and Garuba both have serious flaws in their game. Sengun really struggles to defend in space, he's absolutely not a switchable defender, he gets burned pretty bad defensively by smaller/quicker guys. And Garuba has serious question marks about whether he will be a negative value player on the offensive end - at this point he's considered a poor outside shooter, below average finisher at the rim and also can't really do much in terms of dribbling the ball or creating offense off the bounce, he's got no post up game. Begarin meanwhile, is a good defender, definitely a switchable defender and has potential to be a legit 3-level scorer.


Sengun and Garuba at the same age are light years ahead of Begarin. That is a fact. Sure, they have flaws but they also have a skill or two that is special and allowed them to play at the highest level.

I am hoping Begarin is a late bloomer and that he turns into a serviceable NBA player. But based on history and what he has done so far the odds are against him.
Curmudgeon
RealGM
Posts: 33,189
And1: 15,513
Joined: Jan 20, 2004
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#94 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:38 pm

Alas, Senguin and Garuba weren't available with pick #45. You need to evaluate Begarin's potential against the potential of guys like Banton, Johnson and Cooper who were taken after Begarin. All of those guys are at least a year older than Begarin. Personally I am a fan of Raiquan Gray (taken at #59) but he's three years older.

So you have to look at Begarin a year from now (or two years from now) to evaluate him properly against the other available choices in this year's draft.

Most teams make their 1-60 list, and check guys off after each is drafted. I can see why Begarin was at the top of Boston's list by the time pick #45 rolled around.

Let me add that Victor Wembayana is 7-2 at age 17 and barring injury will be a top ten pick two years from now. So sure, he's not as good (or as tall) as Wembayana.
"Numbers lie alot. Wins and losses don't lie." - Jerry West

"You are what your record says you are."- Bill Parcells

"Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounding wins championships." Pat Summit
Hal14
Analyst
Posts: 3,720
And1: 2,485
Joined: Apr 05, 2019

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#95 » by Hal14 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:05 pm

Curmudgeon wrote:Alas, Senguin and Garuba weren't available with pick #45. You need to evaluate Begarin's potential against the potential of guys like Banton, Johnson and Cooper who were taken after Begarin. All of those guys are at least a year older than Begarin. Personally I am a fan of Raiquan Gray (taken at #59) but he's three years older.

So you have to look at Begarin a year from now (or two years from now) to evaluate him properly against the other available choices in this year's draft.

Most teams make their 1-60 list, and check guys off after each is drafted. I can see why Begarin was at the top of Boston's list by the time pick #45 rolled around.

Let me add that Victor Wembayana is 7-2 at age 17 and barring injury will be a top ten pick two years from now. So sure, he's not as good (or as tall) as Wembayana.

Agreed.

And like you said, Wembayana is only 17 so a lot can happen in 2 yrs before he's draft. But many draft analysts are already saying he's a lock to be no. 1 pick in 2023. The kid is an absolute freak so not really a fair comparison for Begarin.
thebirdman
General Manager
Posts: 8,296
And1: 1,845
Joined: Aug 15, 2004
Location: Slovenia
 

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#96 » by thebirdman » Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:15 pm

I just think expectations for Begarin are too high. There is a reason he was 45th pick...if he makes it to the NBA it will be a huge surprise, IMO...
sam_I_am
RealGM
Posts: 13,664
And1: 5,433
Joined: Jul 10, 2004

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#97 » by sam_I_am » Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:22 pm

Curmudgeon wrote:Boston's Euro scouting has been fine since they hired Benas Matkevicius, the guy who found Daniel Theis. As for Yabusele, that was a purely financial decision. He was willing to go overseas for a year to save the club money. The other potential draftees were not.

Begarin is 19 years old. Who knows what he will be? He does not remind me of Tony Allen or Kedrick Brown at all. Right now he doesn't remind me of anyone.


Yabu gets a lot of hate here because he didn’t pan out. But he showed a lot in Olympics this year. He did a fine job defending Durant who can’t be stopped by anybody anywhere. He just wasn’t cut out for NBA game but his talent as a professional basketball player is undeniable and he will have a decent career with a top tier European team.
sam_I_am
RealGM
Posts: 13,664
And1: 5,433
Joined: Jul 10, 2004

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#98 » by sam_I_am » Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:28 pm

thebirdman wrote:I just think expectations for Begarin are too high. There is a reason he was 45th pick...if he makes it to the NBA it will be a huge surprise, IMO...


I think you may be right but saying a guy shouldn’t have high expectations when drafted so low is a lazy comparison. Most late round picks are 22 yo seniors who had solid senior years but never had the potential to go pro at 19. Once upon a time teams let guys out of high school in US get drafted low and players like Amir Johnson and got drafted too low.

Most NBA type talents in Europe who aren’t sure fire first round picks used to wait to enter draft. Porzingas comes to mind as Ainge was rumored to offer a guarantee in late 20s if I recall correctly but he waited a year and ended up a top 4 pick. The Celtics are swinging for fences on the Yam and Begarin picks because why not. Yam probably made a mistake but you never know given how deep this draft was. Juhann definitely should have waited a year. You can see that Begarin is more talented than you should expect at #45 but there is a wide range of possibilities for him. Making it is not out of the question.
Hal14
Analyst
Posts: 3,720
And1: 2,485
Joined: Apr 05, 2019

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#99 » by Hal14 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:17 pm

thebirdman wrote:I just think expectations for Begarin are too high. There is a reason he was 45th pick. if he makes it to the NBA it will be a huge surprise, IMO

1) Maybe that's because you haven't seen enough footage of him. I just posted a video which includes 2.5 hours of game footage of Begarin from the past year. I asked if you have seen any of this footage and your response was "I haven`t. You know why? Because he played in French B league"

Maybe that is why you're so down on him and saying "there is a reason why he was 45th pick". Maybe he's actually got really good potential - you're just refusing to watch any footage of him from the 2020-2021 season because apparently the competition in the league he played in was just so bad.

Maybe the Celtics looked past the competition level and saw the skill set, the physical tools, the work ethic and character. You know, the things teams look for in a prospect. Sure, competition level might come into play a little bit, but it's not the be all, end all. If it was, how do you explain Santi Aldama being picked 30th overall in the 1st round? He played in the patriot league, which was one of the worst conferences in Division I. And during his 2 years at Loyola, he played 0 games vs major conference teams. But he went 30th overall. Why? Because he's got talent. He's got size, he's got an appealing skill set.

The France B division that Begarin played in might not be as good as some of the top leagues in Europe, but Begarin was still going up against grown a%% men. Men who are getting paid to play basketball professionally. And they're doing it in a country that just won the silver medal in mens basketball at the Olympics so clearly there is some good basketball talent in France.

Surely, the league Begarin played in is better competition than the Patriot League that Aldama played in. Go ahead, take a look at the Begarin 2.5 hours of footage video I posted earlier and compare it to this video of Aldama footage. Which league appears to be better?



I actually had Begarin and Aldama ranked pretty close to each other on my draft big board this year. It looks like Begarin faced slightly better competition. Aldama is obviously much bigger and has a slightly higher 3 point % but Begarin is much faster, much more athletic, plays the game with more urgency/determination, and is also about a yr and a half younger. Both appear to be about equal defensively and both are good passers for their position.

In the end, I ranked Begarin slightly higher on my big board due to the slight edge in competition, but moreso because of the edge in speed, athleticism and being about a yr and a half younger which means more room to develop/improve over the next few years. The fact that Aldama went 30th in the draft tells us 2 things: a) clearly teams are willing to draft a player in the 1st round who faced low level of competition, meaning they look past the level of competition and also look at talent, skill set, physical tools, work ethic and character. b) If Aldama went 30th and I had Begarin ranked slightly higher on my big board, perhaps Begarin has a chance to be pretty good after all..

2) People really shouldn't put so much weight into where a guy is drafted. Pick any draft from 2017 or sooner and do a re-draft, ranking the players based on how their NBA careers actually turned out and I guarantee the draft boards will look MUCH different than where those players actually got drafted.

International players typically get drafted much later than they should, because mainstream/US scouts and media don't know as much about them.

Bojan Bogdanović = picked 31st
Jokic = 41st pick
Ginobili = 57th pick
Tony Parker = 28th pick
Dirk = 9th pick
Giannis = 15th pick
Anderson Varejão = 30th pick
peja stojakovic = 14th pick
Dino Radja = 40th pick
Toni Kukoc = 29th pick
Rudy Gobert = 27th pick
Evan Fournier = 20th pick
Daniel Theis = undrafted

I could go on. Just scratching the surface with this list. But all of these guys outperformed their draft position by A LOT. Why? Because international players typically get drafted later than they should.

I see you put that you're from Slovenia. I don't know, maybe you just don't like Begarin (and other french players) since France just beat Slovenia last week to advance to the Gold Medal Game..
cloverleaf
General Manager
Posts: 8,697
And1: 5,929
Joined: Feb 10, 2007

Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin! 

Post#100 » by cloverleaf » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:33 pm

sam_I_am wrote:
Curmudgeon wrote:Boston's Euro scouting has been fine since they hired Benas Matkevicius, the guy who found Daniel Theis. As for Yabusele, that was a purely financial decision. He was willing to go overseas for a year to save the club money. The other potential draftees were not.

Begarin is 19 years old. Who knows what he will be? He does not remind me of Tony Allen or Kedrick Brown at all. Right now he doesn't remind me of anyone.


Yabu gets a lot of hate here because he didn’t pan out. But he showed a lot in Olympics this year. He did a fine job defending Durant who can’t be stopped by anybody anywhere. He just wasn’t cut out for NBA game but his talent as a professional basketball player is undeniable and he will have a decent career with a top tier European team.


It seemed as if Yabu thought he had made it once he got drafted in the NBA--and then didn't realize how hard he still needed to work. Lots of players eventually grow out of that circumstance.

Return to Boston Celtics