Re: Welcome to Virtual Boston, Juhann Begarin!
Posted: Mon Aug 9, 2021 11:43 pm
“and he’s only 19”
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cloverleaf wrote:Anybody getting a young Tony Allen vibe from this kid?
winsomme2 wrote:cloverleaf wrote:Anybody getting a young Tony Allen vibe from this kid?
TA was a beast of an athlete.
Begarin seems like the exact same player as Langford. Decent athlete nothing spectacular. Long as hell. Scoring two guard needing work on his three ball. good defender with the ability to switch. they really seem the same to me.
ParticleMan wrote:^^ it doesn't look to me like Begarin is a pure athlete who just uses his athleticism to overwhelm euro guys.
he has a smooth stroke and a decent handle. he has above-average athleticism and length even for the nba, though it's not elite. he seems to have a good feel for the game. i think it's way too early to write him off. he does need at least one more year overseas though.
he's got to develop a lot but i like the pick way more than soft-ass "skilled" euro bigs. the nba trash heap is littered with those. i'm not a fan of sengun for instance, though i can see why he's a better prospect at the moment. begarin has a longer way to go but his upside is higher.
thebirdman wrote:I do not think he will be an NBA player. I think Celtics have one of the worst international scouting departments...
Why I do not think Begarin has NBA talent? There are two things I believe you need to look at when assessing euro prospects...
Mistake some scouts/GMs are (still) doing is looking at prospects` athleticism etc. to determine whether he can make it in the NBA. Like Begarin...athletic, great frame but the problem is in the NBA he is just one of the guys...
Euro prospects that make it in the NBA are the ones that have skills which are rare or under developed in the NBA. That is why I am sure Sengun will make an impact. Great footwork and terrific post scoring separate him... who cares if he is unathletic...
Secondly, if you dominate (or at least play a lot) at young age in Europe in top competition that is an indicator that the prospect will be able to play in the NBA. Sengung who is the same age as Bagarin was MVP of Turkish league putting up 19 and 9. Garuba played 83 games for Real Madrid in ACB and Eurolegaue! Bagarin played in French B league...that is like comparing G-league to the NBA.
I just do not see a skill from Bagarin that would make him succeed at the NBA level. Maybe if he can defend like Tony Allen or start shooting threes at 40% but there is no indication that that will happen... He is a 6`5 shooting guard with great frame and good athleticism which does nothing in this league...
Hal14 wrote:1) Seems like you're jumping the gun to flat out say "I do not think he will be an NBA player" after just 2 summer league games, especially when this kid literally just turned 19 yrs old.
Hal14 wrote:2) Maybe you just haven't seen enough footage of Begarin from overseas. From the 3+ hours of footage I've seen (not counting summer league) the trait that I keep seeing from him is this hustle/effort where he will simply go all out, like run through a wall type of determination. I've seen it on a number of plays. 1 of the plays was the steal that iced the game for us the other day vs Atlanta. He has this extra gear that he can get to. It's a combination of that hustle/effort determination + his speed/athleticism/explosiveness + his length with 7'0" wingspan. If it was just hustle, he'd be able to make some good plays, but there's certain plays he can only make because he pairs that hustle with his speed/explosiveness, and then when you add in his 7'0" wingspan it just adds to it and makes certain plays possible that are just not possible for most players - and he makes a lot of those plays. Watch enough footage of him and you'll see what I mean.
Hal14 wrote:3) You say overseas players need to have 1 rare or underdeveloped skill to make it in the NBA. Maybe, but I think 1 of the reasons the C's took Begarin is because he does a little bit of everything. He has a good all-around skill set. He passes the ball and finds the open man very well for a non-PG, especially for a guy who just turned 19. Last season as an 18 yr old playing overseas he had an assist rate of over 18% which is very high for a non-PG, especially considering he had a pretty low usage rate of around 22%. Begarin is also a 3-level scorer. Watch enough footage and you'll see him attack the rim and finish at the rim ferociously, you'll see him know down 3's and you'll also see him hit shots like the 1 he hit the other day vs Denver where he did a little shake and bake move with the dribble into a step back jumper in the mid range area. Legit 3-level scorers who can also pass the ball well are rare. Legit 3-level scorers whop can pass the ball well AND defend at a high level are even more rare. Legit 3-level scorers who can pass the ball well, defend at a high level, defend multiple positions and have a crazy high motor and amount of effort/hustle/determination they play with every single game are even more rare. Oh and we haven't even gotten to the fact that he's got a 7'0" wingspan, is 6'6" (not 6'5" like you said he is), can handle the ball well (has even played some PG overseas and at g-league elite camp scrimmages), has a strong frame, crazy athleticism...all at the age of 19.
This pick by the C's was an upside pick, a swing for the fences. If this dude puts it all together he could be a star. He could be a bust as well, but with the 4th pick, what do you have to lose?
Hal14 wrote:4) You say "oh, well it would be different if he was a 40% shooter from 3". Let's see here, the last full season Begarin played in 2020-2021 he was 18 yrs old. How many 18 yr olds do you think shoot 40% from 3 at either the NCAA or overseas pro level? At least this year, I don't think there were any.
Here's some guys in this year's draft class who shot 40% or higher, with their age in parenthesis:
Corey Kispert (22)
Joe Wieskamp (21)
Matt Hurt (21)
Sam Hauser (23)
Trey Murphy (21)
Davion Mitchell (22)
Chris Duarte (24)
Those are probably the 7 best outside shooters in this year's draft class. Notice any commonality with their ages? Yeah, they're all 21 or older. Begarin played this past season at age 18. That 3 yrs makes a big difference. It is absolutely realistic that 3 yrs from now Begarin could be a 40% shooter from 3.
Madar went from 28% from 3 at age 19 to 41% from 3 at age 20.
Aaron Nesmith went from 33.7% from 3 as a 19 yr old freshman at Vanderbilt to 52.2% as a 20 yr old sophomore
And oh by the way, during the last 9 games of his season in France this past season + the 2 games at the g-league elite camp in July, so over 11 games, Begarin shot 23/47 from 3, which is 48.9%. Those are the last 11 games Begarin played in before summer league and he shot 49%. For the season in France he shot 34.2%, so that just shows you how much rapid improvement he is making in his outside shot.
Again, Begarin shot 34.2% from 3 this past season overseas. Roko Prkacin (who was also 18) shot 35%. You'd be hard pressed to find an 18 yr old who shot much better than that..
Hal14 wrote:5) Begarin has been dominating dudes in Europe at every level he's played at. This is footage from just 2 yrs ago when he was 16..clearly he was a man among boys:
Hal14 wrote:6) You bring up Sengun and Garuba. They're both very good. I had both of them ranked higher than Begarin on my NBA Draft Big Board. With that being said, all 3 of them can be good NBA players. Even if Sengun and Garuba end up being better, that does not mean Begarin can't end up being really good as well.
Also, Sengun and Garuba both have serious flaws in their game. Sengun really struggles to defend in space, he's absolutely not a switchable defender, he gets burned pretty bad defensively by smaller/quicker guys. And Garuba has serious question marks about whether he will be a negative value player on the offensive end - at this point he's considered a poor outside shooter, below average finisher at the rim and also can't really do much in terms of dribbling the ball or creating offense off the bounce, he's got no post up game. Begarin meanwhile, is a good defender, definitely a switchable defender and has potential to be a legit 3-level scorer.
Curmudgeon wrote:Alas, Senguin and Garuba weren't available with pick #45. You need to evaluate Begarin's potential against the potential of guys like Banton, Johnson and Cooper who were taken after Begarin. All of those guys are at least a year older than Begarin. Personally I am a fan of Raiquan Gray (taken at #59) but he's three years older.
So you have to look at Begarin a year from now (or two years from now) to evaluate him properly against the other available choices in this year's draft.
Most teams make their 1-60 list, and check guys off after each is drafted. I can see why Begarin was at the top of Boston's list by the time pick #45 rolled around.
Let me add that Victor Wembayana is 7-2 at age 17 and barring injury will be a top ten pick two years from now. So sure, he's not as good (or as tall) as Wembayana.
Curmudgeon wrote:Boston's Euro scouting has been fine since they hired Benas Matkevicius, the guy who found Daniel Theis. As for Yabusele, that was a purely financial decision. He was willing to go overseas for a year to save the club money. The other potential draftees were not.
Begarin is 19 years old. Who knows what he will be? He does not remind me of Tony Allen or Kedrick Brown at all. Right now he doesn't remind me of anyone.
thebirdman wrote:I just think expectations for Begarin are too high. There is a reason he was 45th pick...if he makes it to the NBA it will be a huge surprise, IMO...
thebirdman wrote:I just think expectations for Begarin are too high. There is a reason he was 45th pick. if he makes it to the NBA it will be a huge surprise, IMO
sam_I_am wrote:Curmudgeon wrote:Boston's Euro scouting has been fine since they hired Benas Matkevicius, the guy who found Daniel Theis. As for Yabusele, that was a purely financial decision. He was willing to go overseas for a year to save the club money. The other potential draftees were not.
Begarin is 19 years old. Who knows what he will be? He does not remind me of Tony Allen or Kedrick Brown at all. Right now he doesn't remind me of anyone.
Yabu gets a lot of hate here because he didn’t pan out. But he showed a lot in Olympics this year. He did a fine job defending Durant who can’t be stopped by anybody anywhere. He just wasn’t cut out for NBA game but his talent as a professional basketball player is undeniable and he will have a decent career with a top tier European team.